nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒04‒06
sixteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Population Ageing and the Macroeconomy By Noëmie Lisack; Rana Sajedi; Gregory Thwaites
  2. Self-Employment at Older Ages in Canada By Raquel Fonseca; Simon Lord; Simon C. Parker
  3. Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model By Röhe, Oke; Stähler, Nikolai
  4. Public Pensions and Low Income Dynamics in Canada By Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca
  5. Does the Selfish Life-Cycle Model Apply in the Case of Japan? By Horioka, Charles Yuji
  6. Pensions and Household Savings: Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Europe By Anna d’Addio; Muriel Roger; Frédérique Savignac
  7. Do Public Program Benefits Crowd Out Private Transfers in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence By Nikolov, Plamen; Bonci, Matthew
  8. Vers un système de retraite universel en points : quelles réformes pour les pensions de réversion ? By Carole Bonnet; Antoine Bozio; Julie Tréguier
  9. You’re invited – RSVP! : The role of tailoring in incentivising people to delve into their pension situation By M. Dinkova; S.K. Elling; A.S. Kalwij; L.R. Lentz
  10. Une alternative à la pension à points : le compte individuel pension en euros By Pierre Devolder
  11. I know (and) I can and I do? : The role of Multi-dimensional financial literacy in explaining pension information behavior By M. Dinkova
  12. La pension à points : 5 principes pour plus d’équité dans les régimes de pension en Belgique By Pierre Devolder; Jean Hindriks
  13. Social transfers and labor supply: Long run rvidence from South Africa By Kacker, Kanishka
  14. Bridging financial reporting research and policy: a discussion of “the impact of accounting standards on pension investment decisions” By Cascino, Stefano
  15. COVID-19: Recomendaciones generales para la atención a personas mayores desde una perspectiva de derechos humanos By -
  16. For better or for worse mental health? The role of social networks for exogamous older couples By Peter Eibich; Chia Liu

  1. By: Noëmie Lisack; Rana Sajedi; Gregory Thwaites
    Abstract: We quantify the impact of demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping-generations model. Falling birth and death rates across advanced economies can explain much of the observed fall in real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt. Since households maintain relatively high wealth levels throughout retirement, these trends will persist as population ageing continues. Countries ageing relatively slowly, like the US, will increasingly accumulate net foreign liabilities. The availability of housing as an alternative store of value attenuates these trends, while raising the retirement age has limited effects.
    Keywords: : Demographics, ageing, natural interest rates, macroeconomic trends.
    JEL: E21 E43 E13 J11
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Raquel Fonseca; Simon Lord; Simon C. Parker
    Abstract: This paper examines the work motivations and incentives of employees and self-employed workers near retirement age. We use a sample of Canadians 50 years and older taken from LISA, the Longitudinal and International Study of Adult. Results are as follows. Poverty is associated positively with the transition from employment to self-employment after 50. Optimism appears to explain in part why employees decide to do the switch. For respondents who were self-employed at least once between 50 and 64 years old, it appears that having had prior self-employment experience does not reduce significantly the probability of being poor after 65.
    Keywords: self-employment, elderly, retirement, Canada, poverty.
    JEL: E24 E32 J14 J20 L26
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Röhe, Oke; Stähler, Nikolai
    Abstract: Since the mid-1970s, firm entry rates in the United States have declined significantly. This also holds for other OECD countries over the past years. At the same time, these economies experienced a gradual process of population aging. Applying a tractable life-cycle model with endogenous firm dynamics, we show that falling US firm entry rates can be explained by demographic transition. Specifically, our model simulations suggest that aging can account for up to one third of the observed decrease in US firm entry rates. In addition to the negative effects of a slowdown in working-age population growth on firm entry, our analysis points out that an increase in longevity may also be an important factor contributing to the decline in business dynamism, weighing on both firm entry and exit rates.
    Keywords: Life-Cycle model,Population aging,Business dynamism,Firm entry
    JEL: H25 L52 E20 E62 L10 O30
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca
    Abstract: This paper focuses on individuals over 50 and shows that considering persistence and low income dynamics is essential to understanding poverty. We use administrative data for Canada from the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults (LISA). The paper shows that poverty for seniors is highly persistent and strongly depends on lifetime earnings. We show that beginning to receive a public pension implies a higher probability of exit from poverty. Public pensions thereby help to explain the lower overall incidence of poverty among the elderly. These results are confirmed in a dynamic probit model, which allows to control for individuals’ unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. While public pensions do not eliminate poverty among older adults, they help to alleviate it by reducing persistence and increasing exit for those who are most at risk.
    Keywords: low-income, elderly, poverty dynamics, Canadian public pensions.
    JEL: H55 J26 I32
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Horioka, Charles Yuji
    Abstract: In this paper, we first provide a brief exposition of the simplest version of the selfish life cycle model or hypothesis, which is undoubtedly the most widely used theoretical model of household behavior in economics, and then survey the literature on household saving behavior in Japan (with emphasis on the author’s own past research) to shed light on whether or not the selfish life-cycle model applies in the case of Japan. In particular, we survey the literature on the impact of the age structure of the population on the saving rate, the saving behavior of retired households, saving motives, the prevalence of bequests, bequest motives, tests of altruism, and the importance of borrowing (liquidity) constraints and show that almost all of the available evidence suggests that the selfish life-cycle model applies to a greater extent in Japan than it does in other countries.Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our findings.
    Keywords: Age structure of the population, aged, altruism, bequests, bequest motives, borrowing constraints, consumption, dissaving, elderly, estates, household behavior, household saving, households, inheritances, intergenerational transfers, Japan, lifecycle hypothesis, life-cycle model, life-cycle theory, liquidity constraints, old age, retirees, saving, saving motives, selfishness, D11, D12, D14, D15, D64, E21, J14
    Date: 2020–03
  6. By: Anna d’Addio; Muriel Roger; Frédérique Savignac
    Abstract: We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension wealth across individuals and across countries, using a European harmonised wealth survey (HFCS) combined with estimates of pension wealth (OECD). First, we find significant displacement effects of mandatory pension wealth on non-pension financial wealth at the mean, and a statistically significant crowd-out estimate on the probability of owning real estate property. Second, there is heterogeneity in the mean savings offset depending on age, risk attitudes and country. Third, the offset follows different patterns along the non-pension wealth distribution across countries.
    Keywords: : Wealth, Pensions, Life Cycle.
    JEL: D31 D91 H55
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Nikolov, Plamen; Bonci, Matthew
    Abstract: Precipitated by rapid globalization, rising inequality, population growth, and longevity gains, social protection programs have been on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the last three decades. However, the introduction of public benefits could displace informal mechanisms for riskprotection, which are especially prevalent in LMICs. If the displacement of private transfers is considerably large, the expansion of social protection programs could even lead to social welfare loss. In this paper, we critically survey the recent empirical literature on crowd-out effects in response to public policies, specifically in the context of LMICs. We review and synthesize patterns from the behavioral response to various types of social protection programs. Furthermore, we specifically examine for heterogeneous treatment effects by important socioeconomic characteristics. We conclude by drawing on lessons from our synthesis of studies. If poverty reduction objectives are considered, along with careful program targeting that accounts for potential crowd-out effects, there may well be a net social gain.
    Keywords: life cycle,retirement,social protection,developing countries,crowdout effect,inter vivos transfers
    JEL: D64 H31 H55 J14 J22 J26 O15 O16 R2
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Carole Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Antoine Bozio (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Julie Tréguier (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)
    Abstract: Le rapport analyse les droits conjugaux dans le système de retraite français en confrontant les effets des dispositifs avec les objectifs qui leur sont attribués. Plusieurs pistes de réforme, compatibles avec un système de retraite universel en points et visant à améliorer l'efficacité de ces dispositifs, sont présentées. Les droits conjugaux dans le système français sont l'ensemble des droits dits dérivés, au sens où ils dépendent des droits directs d'un conjoint. Ces droits dérivés, ou pensions de réversion, avaient pour objectif de couvrir le risque veuvage. Ce risque peut être défini comme la baisse du niveau de vie suite au décès du conjoint, ou bien l'entrée en pauvreté suite au veuvage. Dans le système actuel, la réversion maintient, en moyenne, le niveau de vie au décès du conjoint. Cependant, cette moyenne cache de fortes disparités avec des effets de surcompensation et des pertes nettes de niveau de vie – notamment quand le conjoint survivant a une faible ou pas de pension de droit propre. Ces disparités proviennent des différences entre régimes de mode de calcul des pensions de réversion, dont l'origine tient à la fois à des philosophies différentes et à l'usage de la réversion pour des objectifs variés. L'augmentation des séparations a conduit à définir un nouveau risque à couvrir : le risque divorce. Dans la situation actuelle, c'est la réversion qui joue ce rôle. En cas de divorce, le montant de la pension de réversion dépend du parcours conjugal postérieur du conjoint décédé. De plus, la pension de réversion ne peut être versée qu'au décès du conjoint, potentiellement de nombreuses années après le divorce, participant à diminuer le taux de recours. La réversion apparaît donc comme un instrument inadapté à la couverture du risque divorce. Actuellement, tous les régimes de retraite limitent le bénéfice des pensions de réversion aux couples mariés, excluant ainsi les couples pacsés. Il est n'est pas toujours facile de justifier une telle différenciation, qui est, par ailleurs, mal connue des assurés. Les règles actuelles définissant les pensions de réversion sont très hétérogènes selon les régimes, différant sur l'âge d'ouverture des droits, la condition de durée de mariage, les règles de partage des droits entre conjoints survivants divorcés, la prise en compte ou non d'autres ressources, et le taux de pension de réversion. De telles disparités sont difficile à justifier, et l'unification des règles devrait être un objectif de la mise en place d'un système universel de retraite.
    Date: 2019–06
  9. By: M. Dinkova; S.K. Elling; A.S. Kalwij; L.R. Lentz
    Abstract: This paper assesses whether offering tailored pension information based on age and gender is a way to get people interested in pension information. We conducted a randomised field experiment in which we sent email invitations to all employees of an insurance company to use an online tool, referred to as “the Pensioncheck†, in order to learn more about their personal pension situation. This experimental set-up enabled us to answer the following research question: Does tailoring induce participants to perform the Pensioncheck? We found evidence that tailoring in the trigger phase can work in two opposite directions.
    Keywords: pension communication, pension information, tailoring, field experiment, financial decision making
    Date: 2019–08
  10. By: Pierre Devolder (UCLouvain/LIDAM/ISBA)
    Abstract: La proposition de pension à points émise par la Commission de réforme des pensions 2020-2040 n’a finalement pas abouti à un projet de loi sous la législature qui se termine. Diverses critiques ont été par ailleurs formulées à son encontre; la majorité d’entre elles ont visé le concept même de valeur du point et l’incertitude qui l’accompagne. Nous proposons ici une alternative permettant de rencontrer les mêmes grands objectifs que le système à points tout en évitant les inquiétudes liées à la notion de point de retraite.
    Keywords: Finances publiques, politiques budgétaires et fiscalité, Pensions et soins de santé
    Date: 2019–09–24
  11. By: M. Dinkova
    Abstract: This paper assesses whether financial literacy can explain the likelihood of people delving into their pension situation. I suggest to use a financial literacy construct that, next to the usual financial literacy questions assessing numeracy and knowledge of financial concepts, also includes perceived financial knowledge, questions on pension-specific knowledge and a vocabulary test. A survey was distributed amongst employees and customers of a large insurance company in order to elicit participants’ financial literacy level, some relevant behavioural factors and demographics. I linked participants’ login behaviour in their respective digital pension environment (DPE) to their financial literacy level and behavioural factors including attitudes towards pension information, need for cognition and future time perspective. People with higher pension knowledge and knowledge about the concept of interest compounding were more likely to log in to the DPE. Attitudes, need for cognition and future time perspective are directly related with login behaviour. The relationship between financial literacy and login behaviour is not affected by behavioural factors.
    Keywords: pension communication, pension information, tailoring, financial literacy, pension attitudes, Cognitive factors
    Date: 2019–04
  12. By: Pierre Devolder (Université Catholique de Louvain, IMMAQ, ISBA); Jean Hindriks (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))
    Abstract: La proposition de réforme des régimes belges de pension légale visant à introduire une pension à points a fait l’objet ces derniers mois de nombreuses interrogations et critiques, souvent basées sur une mécompréhension du mécanisme envisagé. Pourtant, loin d’être comme certains ont pu le prétendre une loterie ou une variable d’ajustement du budget de l’Etat, le système proposé est en réalité porteur de valeurs d’équité sensiblement absentes des régimes actuels
    Date: 2018–05–15
  13. By: Kacker, Kanishka
    Abstract: How do large social transfers affect labor supply? This study analyses the South African pension program to answer this question. I exploit a major demand shock - the South African recession that began in 2008 - in a regression discontinuity design to �nd prime aged adult labor supply falls in response to pension arrival in the household only during the recession for sectors and types of workers affected by the recession. Post-recession, these workers witness an increase in demand and respond by increasing supply. Pension payments consequently have small and statistically insignificant effects on labor supply, a result that contrasts starkly with all existing studies. I argue these results stem from the combination of two forces. When labor demand is weak, the opportunity cost of leisure falls and workers demand more leisure. If a household member draws a pension, with leisure being a normal good, leisure demand increases further.
    Keywords: Pension, Labor Supply, Panel Data, NIDS
    JEL: H23 H55 I38 J22 O15
    Date: 2019–11
  14. By: Cascino, Stefano
    Abstract: Barthelme et al. (2018) examine the real effects of pension accounting regulation and provide evidence consistent with the claim that recent changes in financial reporting rules affect pension asset allocation decisions. Their study offers an interesting opportunity to highlight the importance of evidence-based policymaking in the field of financial reporting. I discuss some empirical challenges that the authors face to causally identify the effects they examine to show how a closer cooperation between academia and regulators can enable researchers to overcome identification challenges and help produce even more policy-relevant research.
    Keywords: regulation; evidence-based policymaking; accounting standards; pension asset allocation; IAS 19R; real effects
    JEL: A11 G18 G30 G32 G38 K22 L51 M41
    Date: 2018–09–19
  15. By: -
    Abstract: Las personas mayores podrían tener más probabilidad de presentar complicaciones durante la pandemia del COVID-19, por lo que en este documento se brindan recomendaciones para la atención de este grupo social desde una perspectiva de derechos humanos, las que se pueden aplicar en la casa, la comunidad y las residencias de cuidado de largo plazo. Estas recomendaciones fueron elaboradas con base en buenas prácticas de países de la región de América Latina y el Caribe y de fuera de ella.
    Date: 2020–03–30
  16. By: Peter Eibich (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Chia Liu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020

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