nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒03‒16
eight papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Assessing the financial sustainability of parametric pension system reforms: The case of Morocco By EL-HOUJJAJI, Hind; ECHAOUI, Abdellah
  2. Self-Employment at Older Ages in Canada By Raquel Fonseca Benito; Simon Lord; Simon C. Parker
  3. Public Pensions and Low Income Dynamics in Canada By Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca Benito
  4. Gender inequality and old-age income security the case of Mexico By Henry, Carla.; Fraga, Frederico.
  5. Retirement, Intergenerational Time Transfers, and Fertility By Eibich, Peter; Siedler, Thomas
  6. Health and the share of wealth held in risky assets By Vega, Alejandro; Velli, Evangelia
  7. Puerto Rico's Shrinking Labor Force Participation By Jason Bram; Harry Wheeler
  8. Mobility Challenges Facing Older Adults: A Contra Costa County Case Study By Ragland, David R.; McMillan, Tracy; Doggett, Sarah

  1. By: EL-HOUJJAJI, Hind; ECHAOUI, Abdellah
    Abstract: In 2015, the government adopted a parametric reform intended to deal with the critical financial situation of the CMR civilian pension regime. In this paper, we examine the robustness of this parametric reform by using the Cohort-Component population projection model to the fund’s population during the period 2014-2064. First, we divide the population of the baseline year into cohorts classified by age and sex and then we project the year-on-year demographic transition of each cohort. Second, we lead a projection of the financial situation related to the 2015 parametric reform. Moreover, we project the status quo situation and an alternative scenario where we propose to increase solely the retirement age, and then compare the results with those of the 2015 parametric reform. Our results show that, for the three scenarios, a parametric reform will have a limited effect on the financial situation, in both the long and the short-terms. Under a status quo situation, the reserves are expected to run out in 2023, while under the current parametric reform and our proposed reform, they are expected to expire in 2033. Furthermore, our alternative scenario seems to have some more advantages so that it doesn’t reduce the rights of beneficiaries.
    Keywords: PAYG pension scheme; parametric reform; CMR pension scheme;social policy; retirement; Morocco
    JEL: H55 J11 J26
    Date: 2020–03–03
  2. By: Raquel Fonseca Benito; Simon Lord; Simon C. Parker
    Abstract: This paper examines the work motivations and incentives of employees and selfemployed workers near retirement age. We use a sample of Canadians 50 years and older taken from LISA, the Longitudinal and International Study of Adult. Results are as follows. Poverty is associated positively with the transition from employment to self-employment after 50. Optimism appears to explain in part why employees decide to do the switch. For respondents who were self-employed at least once between 50 and 64 years old, it appears that having had prior self-employment experience does not reduce significantly the probability of being poor after 65.
    Keywords: Self-Employment,Elderly,Retirement,Canada,Poverty, Travail autonome,Ainés,Retraite,Canada,Pauvreté
    JEL: E24 E32 J14 J20 L26
    Date: 2020–02–24
  3. By: Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca Benito
    Abstract: This paper focuses on individuals over 50 and shows that considering persistence and low income dynamics is essential to understanding poverty. We use administrative data for Canada from the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults (LISA). The paper shows that poverty for seniors is highly persistent and strongly depends on lifetime earnings. We show that beginning to receive a public pension implies a higher probability of exit from poverty. Public pensions thereby help to explain the lower overall incidence of poverty among the elderly. These results are confirmed in a dynamic probit model, which allows to control for individuals’ unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. While public pensions do not eliminate poverty among older adults, they help to alleviate it by reducing persistence and increasing exit for those who are most at risk.
    Keywords: Low-Income,Elderly,Poverty Dynamics,Canadian Public Pensions,
    JEL: H55 J26 I32
    Date: 2020–02–10
  4. By: Henry, Carla.; Fraga, Frederico.
    Keywords: gender equality, older workers, private pension scheme
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Eibich, Peter (DIW Berlin); Siedler, Thomas (University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: Retired parents might invest time into their adult children by providing childcare. Such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions. This paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on adult children's fertility. We use representative panel data from Germany to link observations on parents and adult children. We exploit eligibility ages for early retirement for identification in a regression discontinuity design. The results show that parent's early retirement significantly increases the probability of childbirth for adult children. However, parental retirement affects only the timing of adult children's fertility, without having an effect on total fertility.
    Keywords: retirement, fertility, intergenerational transfer, time use
    JEL: J13 J14 J22 J26
    Date: 2020–02
  6. By: Vega, Alejandro (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Velli, Evangelia (Business Administration, Umeå School of Business, Economics and Statistics)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the correlation between negative health shocks and the households’ shareof wealth held in risky assets. By using U.S. data from the Health and Retirement Study, we try toestablish a link between negative health shocks and financial outcomes such as a household’s probabilityof owning risky assets and share of risky assets held. In our definition of a recent negative health shock,we include: cancer or malignant tumor diagnoses, stroke or transient ischemic attack, and heart attack,coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems. We find an importantnegative correlation between a negative health shock to the female and her household’s probabilityof owning risky assets and share of risky assets held, respectively. In contrast, we do not find acorresponding statistically significant correlation for males.
    Keywords: aging couples; health shock; household portfolio choice; share of risky assets; risky financial assets; Health and Retirement Study
    JEL: G11 I10
    Date: 2020–03–06
  7. By: Jason Bram; Harry Wheeler (Research and Statistics Group)
    Abstract: A key concern about Puerto Rico?s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed to any particular demographic segment. Instead, it is the consequence of an aging population, accelerated by a falling birth rate and outmigration of a relatively young cohort. Expected demographic trends will continue to put downward pressure on the participation rate over the medium term, creating a challenging headwind for the economy to overcome.
    Keywords: Labor Supply; Puerto Rico; Labor Force; Participation Rate
    JEL: J00 R1
  8. By: Ragland, David R.; McMillan, Tracy; Doggett, Sarah
    Keywords: Medicine and Health Sciences
    Date: 2019–04–01

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