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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher; Abigail N. Walters |
| Abstract: | Working consistently through one’s fifties and early sixties is key to attaining retirement security. However, workers also need access to retirement plans – so they can continue to accumulate resources – and health insurance – so they can avoid withdrawing assets in the event of a health shock. Yet, despite the fact that a large literature focuses on nontraditional jobs that often lack these benefits, it is unclear how older workers use these jobs and what the consequences are. This paper uses the Health and Retirement Study to identify nontraditional jobs and relies on sequence analysis to explore how workers ages 50-62 use them. The results suggest that the majority of nontraditional jobs are used by workers consistently, and that fewer workers use these jobs briefly or as a bridge to retirement. In the end, workers consistently in nontraditional jobs end up with less retirement income and are also worse off by a more holistic measure of well-being – the incidence of depression. Given this situation, expanding benefits to workers in non-traditional jobs could increase their well-being in retirement. |
| JEL: | J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26379&r=all |
| By: | Mark McGovern |
| Abstract: | There are wide disparities in the extent to which people are prepared to deal financially with their retirement. Among older adults who are nearing their exit from the labor market, a growing proportion lack the resources to ensure a financially stable retirement. I argue that information from birth cohort data are useful for quantifying the extent to which these disparities are a function of their early life experiences and characteristics. For current cohorts, these data can help us identify those most at risk of financial distress when they reach retirement, and for future cohorts the data point to the importance of investing in the human capital of the next generation to ensure a stable financial trajectory across the life course. |
| Keywords: | Retirement, Early Life Conditions, Inequality, Skill Development |
| JEL: | J30 I30 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qub:charms:1901&r=all |
| By: | Tomislav Herceg (Faculty of Economics and Busines, University of Zagreb); Iva Vuksanovi? Herceg (Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade); Fran Galeti? (Faculty of Economics and Busines, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the current depopulation with respect to its impact on the labour market in Croatia and brings it into relation with the prospective of economic growth and sustainability of Croatian pension funds. Taking this situation as a starting point for further surveys, authors present an analysis of the systemic risk with respect to the population trends and input substitution driven growth. The first part of the survey shows that population trends in Croatia are detrimental: high emigration and low birth rate, resulting in an 7% fall in Croatian population since EU accession in 2013. Two different scenarios are used to make simulations of a population projection, revealing that under current conditions (0,9% birth rate and 0,33% net emigration rate) Croatia would lose 1 Million people (1 quarter) in 3 decades and more retired people than those employed. In the other scenario, under which Croatia would maintain stable population volume, a birth rate of 1,5% would be required, which means that birth count should increase by 67%. Even in that case it would take more than 2 decades to overturn the negative trend and 35 years to match current employed/retired ratio of 1,2.The second part puts the previous simulations into relation with pension fund sustainability. A simulation has shown that under an adaptive (pessimistic) scenario pension fund would require additional 12,8% of the state budget to be able to pay pensions since then there would be 10% more retired than employed people. Even in a sustainable (optimistic) scenario a state budget could expect a fall in the pension fund intervention in 30 years from now.The third part makes some growth accounting analysis. Although majority of the studies take the number of workers as constant since it varies very little in the short run, in Croatia there is a tendency of a rather hasty change in a population and workforce. It brings to conclusion that the changes in labour are not to be ignored and, if the countries want to maintain some minimum growth rates, the decrease in labour will have to be compensated by other factors, such as the increase in stocks of capital through investments and incentives for technology improvement. A simulation has shown that a country which has a fall in workforce of 1% per annum (in Croatia in 2018 it was -1,23%) the investments share in GDP should increase by 8%, making it a very costly and hardly achievable option. |
| Keywords: | Total Fertility Rate, Emigration, Growth Accounting, Generation Solidarity Pension System, Overlapping Generation Model |
| JEL: | J11 J21 H55 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:9412319&r=all |
| By: | Dongwoo Kim (Department of Economics at Texas Christian University); Cory Koedel (Department of Economics and Truman School of Public Affairs at the University of Missouri, Columbia); P. Brett Xiang (Department of Economics at the University of Missouri, Columbia) |
| Abstract: | We examine pension-cost crowd out of salary expenditures in the public sector using a 15-year data panel of state teacher pension plans spanning the Great Recession. While there is no evidence of salary crowd out prior to the Great Recession, there is a shift in the post-recession years such that a one percent (of salaries) increase in the annual required pension contribution corresponds to a decrease in total teacher salary expenditures of 0.24 percent. The effect operates through changes to the size of the teaching workforce, not changes to teacher wages. An explanation for the effect heterogeneity pre- and post-recession is that public employers are less able to shield the workforce from pension costs during times of fiscal stress. This problem is exacerbated because unlike other benefit costs, such as for health care, pension costs are countercyclical. |
| Keywords: | pension costs, pension liabilities, unfunded pension liabilities, pension crowd-out, countercyclical pension costs |
| JEL: | H75 I20 |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1913&r=all |
| By: | Jared C.Carbone (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Sul-Ki Lee (Korean Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Yuzhou Shen (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines) |
| Abstract: | We estimate household demand for climate amenities in the United States with two main objectives in mind: (i) to estimate model parameters with the demographic detail needed to inform climate-induced migration responses in regional population projections for use in climate impact analysis; (ii) to study the robustness of estimates from the existing literature. With respect to the former goal, we find important differences in job-related migration motives by age group and in the overall propensity to migrate among households with children. With respect to the latter aim, our framework shares a common, discrete-choice framework with other, recent attempts to recover climate preferences, allowing us to explore the consequences of a number of key assumptions in a systematic manner. Consistent with the existing literature, we find relatively robust estimates of the impact of the frequency of extreme heat days on household location decisions. The impacts of other, common measures of climate, including the frequency of extreme cold days, average summer and winter temperatures, annual precipitation, humidity and frequency of sunshine, are not identified with precision. |
| Keywords: | climate amenities, discrete choice, robustness testing |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201904&r=all |
| By: | Wynand Carel Johannes Grobler (North West University); Steve Dunga (North West University) |
| Abstract: | Food security remain an important measure of a households wellbeing or welfare. Poverty rates at household level has been deduced from food security status in many instances. Statistics South Africa uses food poverty line as one measure of poverty. The amount of food a household needs for survival is considered based on different measures, including the tradition calories approach. Food insecurity measure have evolved overtime and have become stronger and more encompassing taking into account all aspects of food security including, availability, access and dietary diversity. Poverty studies have identified women children and the old age people as the most vulnerable groups of people and at risk of poverty and food insecurity specifically. This study focuses of the Old aged people to analyse their food security status taking into account their sources of income. Special attention is given to those on old age grant and those excluded from the grant to assess the impact of the grant on food security status. Also a gender component is included since different age categories apply to the different gender categories. The paper uses data from the general Household survey collected by STATSSA in 2017. The paper also employs both univariate and multivariate analysis and a regression model to determine the statistical significance of age, gender and marital status on food security status. |
| Keywords: | Food security; the elderly; food poverty; household; pensioners |
| JEL: | D10 J14 J18 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:9412193&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Gannon (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Gilles Le Garrec (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Vincent Touze (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | In the coming decades, the countries of the South will be facing the aging of the population faster than the countries of the North. This will have long-term economic consequences for the South but also for the North through the changing of international capital flows. To study the latter, we build a simple two-region two-period OLG model, assuming fully integrated financial markets. This allows us to determine the analytical expression of the world interest rate dynamics at general equilibrium and the resulting capital flows accruing to each of the two regions (the North and the South). From there, we analyse how a reduction in either fertility or mortality alters the magnitude of the international capital flows. Contradictory effects are evidenced. To clear up any ambiguity and to study the South's demographic transition, which involves a succession of shocks, we propose numerical simulations. Even if the results stress that the institutional context and technological catching-up may matter, they suggest in a rather general way that the declines in both fertility and mortality tend to reduce the relative capital needs of the Southern economies and consequently their capital inflows. This, in turn, would be beneficial to the North's productive capacity, which should then hold more capital. |
| Keywords: | International capital flows; OLG; Demographic transition |
| JEL: | D91 F40 J10 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7&r=all |
| By: | Takayama, Noriyuki |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:683&r=all |
| By: | Sandrine Juin |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp19-21&r=all |
| By: | Asplund, Rita; Kauhanen, Antti; Vanhala, Pekka |
| Abstract: | Abstract Occupational restructuring means that worker skills need to be updated, broadened or totally renewed. This report focuses on persons whose employment prospects have been particularly challenged by occupational restructuring: persons who in the mid-1990s were employed in occupations characterized by declining employment throughout the period of study, i.e. up to the year 2009. The analysis focuses on their participation in various modes of adult education and their long-term labour market outcomes. Employees in declining occupations are found to have participated only moderately in adult education. The result is the same also when adult education is split into four main modes, and into shorter and longer time horizons. Younger cohorts and those with a higher education are strongly overrepresented among those participating in adult education programmes leading to a certificate. The labour market status of the older cohorts and the low-educated is typically much weaker, and labour market training their most common form of adult education. In view of these findings, it would be imperative to reliably evaluate the economic but, to the extent possible, also the social effects of adult education and its various modes. |
| Keywords: | Occupation, Occupational restructuring, Adult education, Labour market training, Labour market status, Age, Education |
| JEL: | J24 J62 I21 E24 |
| Date: | 2019–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:94&r=all |