nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2019‒08‒12
six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran By Mehri , N.; Messkoub, M.; Kunkel, S.
  2. Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru By Christoph Freudenberg; Frederik Toscani
  3. Heterogeneous spillover effects of children's education on parental mental health By Everding, Jakob
  4. “The lost ones: the opportunities and outcomes of non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s” By Margherita Borella; Mariacristina De Nardi; Fang Yang
  5. Coastal blue space and depression in older adults By Dempsey, Seraphim; Devine, Mel T.; Gillespie, Tom; Lyons, Seán; Nolan, Anne
  6. Informe. Reunión de Expertos Sobre Institucionalidad Pública y Envejecimiento By -

  1. By: Mehri , N.; Messkoub, M.; Kunkel, S.
    Abstract: Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran's population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31 percent (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22 percent (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8 percent (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01 percent. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic support for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.
    Keywords: Iran, population aging, fertility change, the speed of the population aging
    Date: 2019–08–02
  2. By: Christoph Freudenberg; Frederik Toscani
    Abstract: Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the population. Using administrative microdata at the affiliate level, we project replacement rates in the defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pillars over the next 30 years and simulate the impact of various reform scenarios on the average level and distribution of pensions. In the DB pillar, the regressive minimum contribution period should be re-thought, while in the DC pillar a broadening of the contribution base and/or an increase in contribution rates would help increase replacement rates relative to the baseline forecast of 25-33 percent. A higher net real rate of return than assumed in the baseline would also have a significant positive impact. In the medium-term, labor market reform to tackle informality, and a broad pension reform to restructure the system and avoid competition between the DB and DC pillars should be a priority. Given low pension coverage, having a strong non-contributory pillar will remain important for the foreseeable future.
    Date: 2019–07–11
  3. By: Everding, Jakob
    Abstract: Despite extensive research on nonmarket returns to education, direct and spillover effects on mental health are widely unstudied. This study is the first to analyze heterogeneous intergenerational effects of children's education on parents' mental health. Given ambiguous theoretical implications, I explore potential mechanisms empirically. Using Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data, I estimate IV regressions, exploiting countrylevel variation in compulsory schooling reforms. Increasing children's education reduces parents' long-term probability of developing depression. Fathers and more educated sons drive this beneficial effect. Since mental illness is frequently undiagnosed, the findings may help improve elderly-specific health care provision.
    Keywords: compulsory schooling reforms,depression,old age,instrumental variable regression,intergenerational spillover
    JEL: I12 J14 J24 C36
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Margherita Borella (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto); Mariacristina De Nardi (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Fang Yang (Louisiana State University)
    Abstract: White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured as a one-time asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.
    Date: 2019–03
  5. By: Dempsey, Seraphim; Devine, Mel T.; Gillespie, Tom; Lyons, Seán; Nolan, Anne
    Date: 2018
  6. By: -
    Date: 2019–06–24

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