nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2019‒05‒06
seven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible By Ameriks, John; Briggs, Joseph; Caplin, Andrew; Lee, Minjoon; Shapiro, Matthew D.
  2. Firm and Worker Dynamics in an Aging Labor Market By Engbom, Niklas
  3. Marital Status and Retirement: An Empirical Study for France By Doorley, Karina; Stancanelli, Elena G. F.
  4. Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth By Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang
  5. Shocks and Transitions from Career Jobs to Bridge Jobs and Retirement: A New Approach By Ameriks, John; Briggs, Joseph; Caplin, Andrew; Lee, Minjoon; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Tonetti, Christopher
  6. The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s By Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Yang, Fang
  7. Expanding Health Insurance for the Elderly of the Philippines By Michael R.M. Abrigo; Timothy J. Halliday; Teresa Molina

  1. By: Ameriks, John (The Vanguard Group, Inc.); Briggs, Joseph (Federal Reserve Board of Governors); Caplin, Andrew (New York University and NBER); Lee, Minjoon (Carleton University); Shapiro, Matthew D. (University of Michigan and NBER)
    Abstract: Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is limited more by a lack of acceptable job opportunities or low expectations about finding them than by unwillingness to work longer. This paper establishes these findings using an approach to identification based on strategic survey questions (SSQs), purpose-designed to complement behavioral data. These findings suggest that demand-side factors are important in explaining late-in-life labor market behavior and need to be considered in designing policies aimed at promoting working longer.
    JEL: E24 J22 J26
    Date: 2018–10
  2. By: Engbom, Niklas (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: I develop an idea flows theory of firm and worker dynamics in order to assess the consequences of population aging. Older people are less likely to attempt entrepreneurship and switch employers because they have found better jobs. Consequently, aging reduces entry and worker mobility through a composition effect. In equilibrium, the lower entry rate implies fewer new, better job opportunities for workers, while the better matched labor market dissuades job creation and entry. Aging accounts for a large share of substantial declines in firm and worker dynamics since the 1980s, primarily due to equilibrium forces. Cross-state evidence supports these predictions.
    Keywords: Demographics; Employment; Economic growth; Labor turnover; Entrepreneurial choice
    JEL: E24 J11 O40
    Date: 2019–04–10
  3. By: Doorley, Karina (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Stancanelli, Elena G. F. (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We argue that retirement from work may affect marital status according to the predictions of quite standard economic models of marriage and divorce. Retirement may make singles less marriageable as well as impacting negatively marriage stability for married people. We exploit retirement laws in France to instrument the effect of retirement on individual marriage status, using Census data. While we cannot claim causality, we find that retirement correlates negatively with the marriage probability of men, and the more so for men with less than high school education.
    Keywords: ageing, retirement, divorce
    JEL: J12 J14 J22
    Date: 2019–04
  4. By: Dotsey, Michael (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Li, Wenli (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Yang, Fang (Louisiana State University)
    Abstract: We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in ac- counting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid-1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of employment, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increasing share of capital devoted to heavy industries. We conduct our analysis in a general equilibrium economy that also features endogenous human capital investment. We calibrate the model to match key economic variables of the Chinese economy and show that demographic changes and industrial policies both contributed to in- creases in savings and output growth but with differing intensities and at different horizons. We further demonstrate the importance of endogenous human capital investment in accounting for the economic growth in China.
    Keywords: Aging; Credit policy; Household saving; Output growth; China
    JEL: E21 J11 J13 L52
    Date: 2019–03–21
  5. By: Ameriks, John (The Vanguard Group, Inc.); Briggs, Joseph (Federal Reserve Board); Caplin, Andrew (New York University and NBER); Lee, Minjoon (Carleton University); Shapiro, Matthew D. (University of Michigan and NBER); Tonetti, Christopher (Stanford University and NBER)
    Abstract: This research provides new empirical evidence on late-life labor market activities of American households from a new survey implemented under the Vanguard Research Initiative. The survey features the following innovations: It measures detailed job characteristics not only of a career job but also of post-career bridge jobs; it examines reasons of leaving a career job and whether households would have changed their decisions under counterfactual situations; it examines post-career job search behavior of households. The research finds that, even though a direct transition from a career job to full retirement is still the most common pattern, a significant fraction of older Americans reveal interest in working beyond the career job. Within this sample of older Americans with positive financial assets, 38% had a post-career bridge job and another 7% of them looked for a post-career employment opportunity. Low health or bad business conditions were not the main reason for leaving the career job. Yet, for the minority of those who did leave career jobs owing to low health or bad economic conditions, had they counterfactually had better health or economic conditions, they likely would have decided to work longer. Those who work longer on their career job or have a post-career bridge job tend to work fewer hours, have a flexible schedule, and receive lower hourly wages.
    Date: 2018–09
  6. By: Borella, Margherita (Università di Torino); De Nardi, Mariacristina (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Yang, Fang (Louisiana State University)
    Abstract: White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured as a one-time asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.
    JEL: E21 H31
    Date: 2019–03–18
  7. By: Michael R.M. Abrigo (Philippines Institute for Development Studies); Timothy J. Halliday (University of Hawaii at Manoa UHERO, IZA); Teresa Molina (University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: The Philippines expanded health insurance coverage of its senior citizens, aged 60 and older, in 2014. Employing data from two separate sources, we find that the expansion increased insurance coverage by approximately 16 percentage points. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that out-of-pocket medical expenditures more than doubled among the newly insured. We argue that this is most likely driven by an outward shift in the medical demand curve due to physician-induced demand. Quantile regression estimates indicate that these effects were the most pronounced among high utilizers. We show that the compliers, defined as those induced by the policy to obtain insurance, are disproportionately female and largely from the middle of the socioeconomic distribution. Finally, tests for selection indicate only moderate adverse selection into the treatment.
    Keywords: Immigration, Health Insurance, Cost Sharing, Medicaid, Insurance Exchange
    JEL: I10 I13 I14
    Date: 2019–05

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