nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2019‒04‒01
six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. The lost ones: the opportunities and outcomes of non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s By Margherita Borella; Mariacristina De Nardi; Fang Yang
  2. Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation? By Benoit Mojon; Xavier Ragot
  3. Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends By Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna
  4. From Microeconomic Favoritism to Macroeconomic Populism By Gilles Saint-Paul
  5. Nutrition Security and Optimal Dietary Intake in Taiwan By Chang, Ching-Cheng; Liu, Yi- Ting; Hsu, Chia- Sheng; Hsu, Shih-Hsun
  6. Organizing Care for Complex Patients in the Patient-Centered Medical Home (Journal Article) By Eugene C. Rich; Debra Lipson; Jenna Libersky; Deborah N. Peikes; Michael L. Parchman

  1. By: Margherita Borella (University of Torino); Mariacristina De Nardi (University College London / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago / IFS / NBER); Fang Yang (Louisiana State University)
    Abstract: White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured as a one-time asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.
    Keywords: education, Health, wage gap, welfare losses, life expectancy
    JEL: E21 H31
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Benoit Mojon; Xavier Ragot
    Abstract: Why is wage inflation so weak in spite of the recent sharp reduction in unemployment? We show that this may be due to an ongoing change in the composition of the labor supply. Indeed, the participation rate of workers aged between 55 and 64 has increased steadily over the last decade, from a third to above a half on average across OECD countries. This is most likely the consequence of ageing and the reform of pensions. We show that the participation rate of workers aged 55 to 64 contributes to explain why wage inflation has remained weak over the last five years. Our second result is that Phillips curves are alive and well. When exploiting the cross-country variance of the data, wage inflation remains highly responsive to domestic unemployment rates, including after the Great Recession.
    Keywords: low inflation, ageing economy, Phillips curve
    JEL: E5 J3
    Date: 2019–03
  3. By: Hornstein, Andreas (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: We estimate trends in the labor force participation (LFP) and unemployment rates for demographic groups differentiated by age, gender, and education, using a parsimonious statistical model of age, cohort, and cycle effects. Based on the group trends, we construct trends for the aggregate LFP and unemployment rate. Important drivers of the aggregate LFP rate trend are demographic factors, with increasing educational attainment being important throughout the sample, ageing of the population becoming more important since 2000, and changes of groups' trend LFP rates, e.g., for women prior to 2000. The aggregate unemployment rate trend on the other hand is almost exclusively driven by demographic factors, with about equal contributions from an older and more educated population. Extrapolating the estimated trends using Census Bureau population forecasts and our own forecasts for educational shares, we project that over the next 10 years the trend LFP rate will decline to 61.1% from its 2018 value of 62.7% and the trend unemployment rate will decline to 4.3% from its 2018 value of 4.7%.
    Keywords: Labor Force Participation Rate; Unemployment Rate; Demographic Composition; Age Effects; Cohort Effects; Educational Attainment.
    Date: 2019–03–27
  4. By: Gilles Saint-Paul (New York University Abu Dhabi, PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Why would people support policies that are macroeconomically unsound, in that they are more likely to lead to such events as sovereign crises, balance of payments crises, and the like? This may arise if decisive voters are likely to bear a lower fraction of the costs of the crisis, while bene.tting from the short-run gains associated with those policies, such as greater public expenditure or lower taxes. I first discuss an illustrative model based on Saint-Paul et al. (2017), based on the assumption that in a crisis, not everybody can access his or her entitlement to publicly provided goods, a feature labelled "favoritism". If the decisive voter is relatively favored in this rationing process, then people are more likely to finance public expenditure by debt, the greater the degree of favoritism. Furthermore, favoritism and the likelihood of a crisis raises the level of public spending. Next, I consider the choice between electing a "populist" who reneges on anonymity when allocating the public good, even in normal times, and a "technocrat" who sticks to anonymity, and does all it takes to balance the budget. I show that the support for the populist is greater, (i) the greater the likelihood of default, (ii) the more depressed the macroeconomic environment, (iii) the greater the inherited level of public debt and (iv) the lower the state's fiscal capacity. I then argue that the model helps understanding some episodes in French pension reform. Some occupational groups supported unsustainable reductions in the retirement age because they expected that other workers would bear a higher proportion of the burden of future adjustment. Finally, using a panel of countries, I provide evidence in favor of some of the predictions of the model. As predicted, favoritism raises public debt, budget de.cits, and public spending. It also raises the likelihood of a fiscal crisis through its effect on public debt. Furthermore, "populists" are more likely to conquer power, the higher the degree of debt and budget deficits, and the higher the level of government spending.the latter finding being consistent with the model's prediction on the effect of fiscal capacity.
    Keywords: Political economy,Fiscal crises,Favoritism,Entitlements,Public debt,Inequality,State capacity
    Date: 2019–03
  5. By: Chang, Ching-Cheng; Liu, Yi- Ting; Hsu, Chia- Sheng; Hsu, Shih-Hsun
    Abstract: The rapid urbanization and income growth have led to changes in the global food systems and nutrition transition in many developing countries. The prevalence of obesity and dietary-related diseases has become an urgent issue in developing national health policies. Taiwan is a rapidly aging society and its highest prevalence of obesity is observed in adults above 65 years old. This paper aims to find the optimal age- specific dietary intake pattern for both sexes based on the data from Nutrition and Health Surveys in Taiwan (NAHSIT). Goal programming approach is adopted to minimize the gap between observed diet and the dietary recommendation intakes (DRIs) from the public health authorities. Food consumption constraints is added to prevent diet plans from including unreasonable pattern and to minimize impacts on household food expenditures. Our result suggests that lack of calcium intake is a common problem for all age groups and both sexes in Taiwan and a shift from meat and oil products to more fish, nuts and vegetables is required. The age- and gender-specific results also show how goal programming modelling can be used to translate the DRIs into economically acceptable food plans.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2019–02
  6. By: Eugene C. Rich; Debra Lipson; Jenna Libersky; Deborah N. Peikes; Michael L. Parchman
    Abstract: This article summarizes strategies to help smaller primary care practices transform into medical homes that effectively serve patients with complex needs, particularly the frail elderly and working-age adults with disabilities.
    Keywords: Patient-Centered Medical Home , Organizing Care , Complex Patients , Health
    JEL: I

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