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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Berk Yavuzoglu (Department of Economics, Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | It is essential to understand the labor supply incentives generated by the Social Security (SS) system to Americans beyond normal retirement age, currently 66, since the U.S. population is growing older steadily and the fiscal burden of SS is sizable. This paper analyzes the joint determination of labor supply, consumption (savings) and the decision to apply for SS benefits of elderly single males, using a dynamic programming formulation and restricted data from the Health and Retirement Study. The focus is on the participation decision rather than the retirement decision because a significant portion of the elderly return to work after being nonparticipants for a while. The model accounts for this through wage, health status and health expenses shocks. Undertaking a counterfactual analysis, I find that the year 2000 SS amendment abolishing the "earnings test" for the age group 66−70 explains one-fourth of the recent increase in the elderly labor force participation rate (LFPR). Applying the "earnings test" to my post2000 sample decreases LFPR by 3.5 percentage points and mean hours worked by 117 hours at this age group. I further find via counterfactual analyses that the elderly labor supply decision is sensitive to changes in SS benefit and payroll tax amounts on the extensive margin, but the eects on the intensive margin are not substantial. Decreasing SS benefits by 20 percent increases the participation rate of the elderly aged 66 − 75 by 37 percent. Because a change in the payroll tax rate is effectively a change in the wage rate, I estimate labor supply elasticities for the elderly and find that the elasticities are around unit elasticity |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:naz:wpaper:1803&r=age |
| By: | Börsch-Supan, Axel; Härtl, Klaus; Leite, Duarte Nuno; Ludwig, Alexander (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA)) |
| Abstract: | We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled within a public pension system. Heterogeneity with respect to consumption preferences, wage profiles, and survival rates is embedded in the model. Besides the expected direct effects of these reforms on the behavior of households, we observe that feedback effects do occur. Results suggest that individual retirement decisions are strongly influenced by numerous incentives produced by the pension system and macroeconomic variables, such as the statutory eligibility age, adjustment rates, the presence of a replacement rate, and interest rates. Those decisions, in turn, have several impacts on the macro-economy which can create feedback cycles working through equilibrium effects on interest rates and wages. Taken together, these reform scenarios have strong implications for the sustainability of pension systems. Because of the rich nature of our unified model framework, we are able to rank the reform proposals according to several individual and macroeconomic measures, thereby providing important support for policy recommendations on pension systems. |
| JEL: | C68 D91 E17 H55 J11 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mea:meawpa:201804&r=age |
| By: | Cindy Sin U Leong (Macao Polytechnic Institute) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study was to investigate the factors contributing to the sleep behavior among the older adults in Macao. As people become older, they may have a difficult time falling asleep and have a more trouble maintaining asleep in comparison to their younger age. Macao has an image of ?healthy city?, since the average life expectancy of people in Macao is 84-year-old for females and 81-year-old for males. From these figures, it may say the sleep behavior is not too bad for the general public, but is it correct? This research study used a qualitative approach to explore and understand the sleep patterns. There were total 60 older adults. All of these older adults lived with family members in the community. Most of them were from two elderly activity centers and society association. The information from the interviewees was transcribed verbatim to convey the interviewees? intended message as accurately as possible. One principal theme that emerged from the study was ?concerns about the living environment?. With better living environment, they had relatively proper sleep behavior. However, if their living environment was not reached the standard, they had quite ?poor? sleep behavior. Unless addressed successfully, this issue can compromise optimal older adults? health and increase the cost of health care sources. Being as health professionals and educators, there is a need to encourage the government to face and solve the problem. |
| Keywords: | sleep pattern, older adults, Macao |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8208775&r=age |
| By: | Manuel Guerra; João Pereira; Miguel St. Aubyn |
| Abstract: | The negative effect of population aging on the economy can be mitigated by a behavioral effect of people as a reaction to a higher life expectancy. We analyze the optimal life-cycle of individuals that allocate time at the intensive margin between leisure, human capital accumulation, and labor supply while facing an age-dependent mortality. This allows to enhance effects of changes in life expectancy on labor supply and human capital accumulation and to uncover trade-offs between time allocations at different stages of the life-cycle. Our life-cycles are characterized by on the job training throughout all the working life with a possibility of a temporary exit from the labor market. We simulate the model numerically and nd that with a higher life expectancy, labor supply increases at the intensive margin and the individual invests more in human capital. We also nd a willingness to increase labor supply at the extensive margin. |
| Keywords: | Life-Cycle; Age-Dependent Mortality; Aging; Time Allocation |
| JEL: | J22 J24 H55 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0562018&r=age |
| By: | Thitirut Chanmaha (Université de Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | When Thailand is going to the society of ageing, to prepare for the situation is to select the stabile career. For Thai, this type of career is a government official because the welfare covers medical charges and after the retirement, they will obtain financial aid for the rest of their lives. For the pension system of Thailand, it can be divided into 4 types which are special pension, inherited pension, living support pension, and general pension. According to the second edition of the Civil Service Act B.E. 2558 (2015), the pension rate depends on the duration of works and salary, resulting in the great different between low-level position and a high-level position. Therefore, should the financial aids be equally appropriate to all level of officials? |
| Keywords: | Income, Retirement, Government officer |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:6509796&r=age |
| By: | Barrios, Salvador; Coda Moscarola, Flavia; Figari, Francesco; Gandullia, Luca |
| Abstract: | Policy discussions on pension systems generally focus on their sustainability and design, including retirement age, income reference and contributory period, with relatively little attention devoted to the tax treatment of pension contributions and pension benefits. However, tax expenditures—defined as deviations from an agreed benchmark tax system— are widely used in EU Member States, and little is known about their fiscal and distributional impact. This paper quantifies the fiscal and distributional impact of tax expenditures related to public and private contributory pension schemes, affecting both contributions and pension benefits, in 28 European countries using EUROMOD, the EU-wide microsimulation model. We find that pension-related tax expenditures can have a sizeable impact on revenue and strong effects on inequality and poverty. Tax expenditures tend to be progressive on two levels: first, among pensioners, by favoring those with lower incomes, mainly as a result of the preferential treatment given to pension incomes; and, second, among people of working age, through a partial or no deduction of pension contributions, draining resources from those at the top of the income distribution. Moreover, embracing a lifetime perspective, tax expenditures tend to redistribute resources in favor of women and low educated individuals. |
| Date: | 2018–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em15-18&r=age |
| By: | Henrique S. Basso (Banco de España); Omar Rachedi (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We document that fiscal multipliers depend on the age structure of the population. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across U.S. states, we show that local fiscal multipliers increase with the share of young people in total population. We rationalize this fact with a parsimonious life-cycle open-economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections. The model explains 65% of the relationship between local fiscal multipliers and demographics. We use the model to study the implications of population aging, and find that nowadays U.S. national fiscal multipliers are 36% lower than in 1980. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle, population aging, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E30 E62 J11 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1837&r=age |
| By: | M. Martin Boyer; Claude Fluet; Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Philippe De Donder |
| Abstract: | This paper reports survey evidence on long-term care (LTC) risk misperceptions and demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Canada. LTC risk misperceptions is divided into three different risks: needing help for at least one activity of daily life, needing access to a nursing home, and living to be 85 years old. We contrast subjective (i.e. stated) probabilities with actual probabilities for these three dimensions. We first provide descriptive statistics of how objective and subjective probabilities differ and correlate to each other. Second, we study cross-correlations between different types of risks. We then study how risk misperceptions correlate with individual characteristics, and evaluate how misperceptions affect intentions and actual purchase of LTCI. Our conclusions are two-fold. First, we find that most subjects are not well informed about their individual LTC risks, making it difficult for them to take the correct LTCI decisions. Second, and even though misperceptions explain an individuals actual or his intentions to take-up LTCI, misperceptions are unlikely to explain the poor take-up rate of LTCI in our sample. |
| Keywords: | Long-term Care Insurance Puzzle,Disability,Misperceptions,Subjective Probability, |
| JEL: | D91 I13 |
| Date: | 2018–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-20&r=age |
| By: | Kuhn, Andreas; Staubli, Stefan; Wuellrich, Jean-Philippe; Zweimüller, Josef |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of permanent and premature exits from the labor force on mortality. To overcome the problem of negative health selection into early retirement, we exploit a policy change in unemployment insurance rules in Austria that allowed workers in eligible regions to exit the labor force 3 years earlier compared to workers in non-eligible regions. Using administrative data with precise information on mortality and retirement, we find that the policy change induced eligible workers to exit the labor force significantly earlier. Instrumental variable estimation results show that for men retiring one year earlier causes a 6.8% increase in the risk of premature death and 0.2 years reduction in the age at death, but has no significant effect for women. |
| Keywords: | early retirement; health behavior; Instrumental Variable; Mortality |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13217&r=age |
| By: | Rob Bauer; Matteo Bonneti; Dirk Broeders |
| Abstract: | We use a unique dataset on the governance structures of 191 Dutch pension funds to study the effect of interconnections on strategic investment decisions in alternative assets. The interconnections are determined through trustees, actuaries, or dominant asset managers who provide services to multiple pension funds. We use spatial econometrics and find that pension funds that are interconnected via actuaries or dominant asset managers change their strategic allocations in the same direction over time, which is in line with herding. The effect of interconnections can be sizable. A pension fund interconnected to two other pension funds through the same dominant asset manager will increase on average its allocation to alternative investments by 2.5 percent if both pension funds increase their allocation by 10 percent, all else being equal. Conversely, pension funds interconnected via trustees display independent strategic asset allocations. Interconnections facilitate the transfer of information. However, herding can lead pension funds to develop an alternative asset class portfolio that is not in line with their liability structure, size, or knowledge level. |
| Keywords: | Herd Behavior; Pension Funds; Asset Allocation; Alternative Asset Classes; Spatial Econometrics; Interconnection |
| JEL: | G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:612&r=age |
| By: | Heike Mayer, Birgit Leick |
| Abstract: | The traditional understanding of entrepreneurship is biased towards certain population groups and specific locations. Yet the literature points to a much more diverse perspective on entrepreneurship and regional development. In this paper, we argue that regional characteristics such as the extent to which a region faces demographic change (population growth or decline, population ageing, emigration of youth, etc.) may exert a strong influence both on the individual propensity to start a business and the aggregate numbers of entrepreneurial activities. In addition, demographic change also influences the types of businesses or business models found in different regional contexts. With this idea in mind, we argue that the opportunities and challenges that are associated with old age entrepreneurship depend strongly on the regional context. We place old age entrepreneurship into a regional context and illustrate the ways in which opportunities and constraints arise from such a context and, in particular, from demographic change occurring in different regional types. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Ageing, Silver Economy, Regional Development |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper22&r=age |
| By: | Marcel Mérette (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Julien Navaux (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a new longitudinal data set for Canada based on the National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology. NTA gives a complete picture of economic flows by age and measures the way in which individuals produce, consume, save and share resources at each age on a retrospective basis. This paper introduces for the first time individual age consumption and labour income profiles in Canada for the period between 1998 and 2013. The longitudinal dimension of the study sheds light on how the gap between consumption and labour income has been changing over that period. We also use the age profiles of consumption and labour income to construct an alternative indicator to the demographic dependency ratio, called the NTA Economic Support Ratio. This allows us to project the pressure of aging on this new ratio and hence to identify under which conditions private consumption in Canada can be funded over the next few years. The analysis raises concerns about the sustainability of living standards in an aging context. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1810e&r=age |
| By: | M. Martin Boyer; Philippe De Donder; Claude Fluet; Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | We examine the different hypotheses which have been put forward to explain the low demand for long-term care insurance using the results from a survey of 2000 Canadians that was conducted in the autumn of 2016. Defining the natural market of long-term care insurance buyers as the one catering to individuals aged between 50 and 70, we find that a remarkable proportion of this natural market has never been approached to purchase such protection. We estimate that approximately 60% of this natural market is currently under-served. After eliminating risk perception and demand side explanations for the low market penetration of long-term care insurance, we conclude that supply-side factors and the crowding-out by government programs are the most likely culprits in explaining the low proportion of Canadians that purchase LTC insurance from private providers. |
| Keywords: | Long-term Care Puzzle,Risk Perceptions,Supply and Demand of Insurance,Government Programs, |
| JEL: | G02 G12 C14 |
| Date: | 2018–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-13&r=age |
| By: | Aurélie Côté-Sergent; Raquel Fonseca Benito; Erin Strumpf |
| Abstract: | Inequalities in health by educational attainment are persistent both over time and across countries. However, their magnitudes, evolution, and main drivers are not necessarily consistent across jurisdictions. We examine the health-education gradient among older adults in the United States, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, including how it changes over time between 2004 and 2010. Using longitudinal survey data, we assess how rates of incident poor health, incident difficulties with activities of daily living, and incident chronic conditions vary by educational attainment across countries. We also examine how potential confounders, including demographic characteristics, income, health care utilisation and health behaviours, affect the health-education gradient within countries over time. We find systematic differences in disease incidence, as well as in the health-education gradients, across countries. We also demonstrate that while adjusting for confounders generally diminishes the health-education gradient, the impacts of these variables vary somewhat across countries. |
| Keywords: | Disease incidence,Older ages,Education, |
| JEL: | I1 I2 |
| Date: | 2018–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-11&r=age |
| By: | Dina Tasneem; Audrey Azerot; Marine de Montaignac; Jim Engle-Warnick |
| Abstract: | We report results from an economics experiment that examines the role of financial literacy in retirement savings. In the experiments, participants make decisions in a retirement savings game, in which income during working years is uncertain. Participants are nudged to varying degrees with automatic savings in each period of the game. Some participants receive financial literacy training in the form of training to compute the expected savings needed at retirement to smooth consumption over the entire life cycle. We find ev-idence that literacy increases savings and improves efficiency. Our finding has implications for choice architecture for retirement savings. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary Savings,Retirement Savings,Life-cycle Model,Dynamic Optimization,Nudge,Financial Literacy,Decision Heuristics, |
| JEL: | C90 |
| Date: | 2018–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-24&r=age |
| By: | Dina Tasneem; Audrey Azerot; Marine de Montaignac; Jim Engle-Warnick |
| Abstract: | We report results from an on-line economics experiment that examines the effect of nudging retirement savings decisions. In the experiments, participants make decisions in a finitely repeated retirement savings game, in which income during working years is uncertain, and retire-ment age is known. Participants, who are household financial decision-makers, are nudged with automatic savings in each period of the game. We find that that the nudge simply replaced nat-ural decision-making observed in the absence of a nudge in this experiment, even to the extent that it resulted in nearly identical inferred decision rules. This surprising result highlights the unpredictability of the effect of nudging human behavior. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary Savings,Retirement Savings,Life-cycle Models,Dynamic Optimization,Decision Heuristics,Nudge,Choice Architecture, |
| JEL: | C91 E21 C61 |
| Date: | 2018–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-23&r=age |
| By: | Eichengreen, Barry; Mari, Rebecca; Thwaites, Gregory |
| Abstract: | In the UK's 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key. |
| JEL: | F0 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13288&r=age |
| By: | Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA)) |
| Abstract: | [English] This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness and relative pessimism increase with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and motivational attitudes share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs: cognitive weakness rather than optimism is an increasingly important contributor to overestimation of survival chances in old age. [German] Diese Arbeit ist motiviert durch die klassische ökonomische Frage, wie Entscheidungen über den Lebenszyklus von zeitlichen Präferenzen und dem Zeithorizont der Individuen beeinflusst werden. Insbesondere fokussieren wir darauf, wie Individuen ihre Überlebenserwartungen bilden. Zufolge zahlreicher empirischer Studien unterschätzen junge Menschen ihre Überlebenschancen, wohingegen ältere Menschen diese durchschnittlich überschätzen. Was ist die treibende Kraft hinter diesem altersabhängigen Muster der Fehleinschätzungen der ferneren Lebenserwartungen? Gibt es womöglich Effekte, die über einen Lern- und Erfahrungsprozess über Gesundheitsrisiken und -historien hinaus die Einschätzung von Individuen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos beeinflussen? Dieses Paper erörtert, dass psychologische Faktoren von entscheidender Bedeutung zur Beantwortung dieser Frage sind. Wir vergleichen subjektive Überlebenserwartungen aus einer Haushaltsbefragung mit den dazu korrespondierenden objektiven Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeiten, die wir basierend auf individuellen Charakteristika schätzen (z.B. Alter, Geschlecht, Gesundheitshistorie). Wir dokumentieren, dass typische Verzerrungen auftreten: Bis zu einem Alter von 70 Jahren unterschätzen Individuen ihre objektiven Überlebenschancen, ab diesem Alter überschätzen sie diese. Um zu zeigen, dass psychologische Einstellungen wichtige Determinanten dieser Abweichungen zwischen subjektiven Überlebenserwartungen und objektiven Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeiten sind, schätzen wir implizite psychologische Faktoren aus den beobachteten Differenzen. Wir zeigen, dass das implizite Maß sowohl an gemessenem Pessimismus, als auch an Insensitivität zur objektiven Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit dem Alter steigt. Diese Ergebnisse legen also nahe, dass Individuen im Durchschnitt im Alter pessimistischer werden und dass die Fähigkeit, objektive Wahrscheinlichkeiten richtig einzuschätzen, abnimmt. Daraufhin zeigen wir, dass direkte Messungen dieser psychologischen Faktoren diese Trends teilen: Daten Indices zu Pessimismus steigen, zu Optimismus sinken mit dem Alter und ein Index über kognitive Schwäche steigt ebenfalls mit dem Alter. Schlussendlich zeigen wir, dass diese direkten psychologischen Maße tatsächlich wichtige quantitative Rollen in der Bildung subjektiver Überlebenserwartungen spielen. Pessimismus führt zu einer signifikanten Unterschätzung, Optimismus zu einer Überschätzung von Überlebenschancen und eine fehlende Kognition spielt eine zunehmend wichtige Rolle für die beobachtete Überschätzung der Überlebenschancen, wenn Individuen älter werden. Dieser Effekt dominiert, weshalb ältere Menschen ihre Überlebenserwartungen mehr und mehr überschätzen. Wir schließen unsere Analyse mit einem Ausblick, der argumentiert, dass die treibenden Kräfte für Verzerrungen in Wahrscheinlichkeitseinschätzungen auf ökonomische Entscheidungen im Allgemeinen nur mithilfe struktureller Lebenszyklusmodells studiert werden können, welches Wissenschaftlern ermöglicht, simultan multiple Risiken und die Beeinflussung der Erwartungsbildung über diese Risiken durch psychologische Faktoren zu berücksichtigen. |
| JEL: | D83 D91 I10 |
| Date: | 2018–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mea:meawpa:201801&r=age |
| By: | Bratberg, Espen (University of Bergen, Department of Economics); Holmås, Tor Helge (NORCE); Monstad, Karin (NORCE) |
| Abstract: | Several policies aim to keep older workers in the labour force, but little is known about their effects. We investigate the effects of a particular programme in Norway that reduces the workload of teachers at age 55 but maintains the same wage. Evaluation of this programme is well suited to a differencein-difference analysis, where the control group is teachers slightly too young to be eligible for the workload reduction. Using full population register data for the period 2005–2013, we analyse the effects of the programme on sickness absence, contracted hours, mental health, and musculoskeletal problems. We find that the programme reduces sickness absence and mental health problems for men, but not for women, and there is no effect on contracted hours. The results are robust to a number of checks. |
| Keywords: | workload; older workers; sickness absence; absenteeism; working hours; difference-in-difference; triple DD |
| JEL: | H55 I12 J32 |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2017_016&r=age |
| By: | Dina Tasneem; Jim Engle-Warnick |
| Abstract: | We report results from an experiment that compares precautionary savings behavior with retirement savings behavior. We find that more than 30% of precautionary savings behavior can be categorized as optimal or near optimal, while virtually all of this behavior disappears in favor of simple decision rules that specify constant consumption in each period when retirement savings is added as a motive. We discuss the the costs and benefits of these rules, which make a complex decision-making environment manageable. Our experiment is the first to identify how decision-making changes when agents are required to save for retirement. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary Savings,Retirement Savings,Dynamic Optimization,Decision Heuristics, |
| JEL: | C91 E21 C61 |
| Date: | 2018–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2018s-22&r=age |
| By: | Tomomasa Yamasaki (Aoyama Gakuin University); Takashi kaburagi (Aoyama Gakuin University); Satoshi Kumagai (Aoyama Gakuin University); Toshiyuki Matsumoto (Aoyama Gakuin University); Yosuke Kurihara (Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Elderly people need some help for urination due to their muscle weakness. In certain cases, some elderly people need help more to go to bathroom on a regular basis because they cannot feel urinary urgency due to nerve dysfunction. Since the urination interval between urinations varies around ranging from 30 to 100 minutes in general, caregivers are required to check elderly people?s urination at intervals around 30 minutes to prevent urinary incontinence even though no indication. If caregivers could predict long-term urinary volume transition in the bladder, they would be able to make well-organized excretion management plans to take the elderly people to the bathroom, and do other chores accordingly. However, the prediction of the urinary volume is difficult because the urinary accumulation patterns are dispersed due to the daily body condition. In this research, we proposed a prediction method for urinary volume in their bladder based on Gaussian Process from datasets which were measured using ultrasonic sensor. The ultrasonic sensor is used commonly in nursing homes, which is the reason why we used it for the proposed method. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we conducted an experiment assessing its validity. The subjects were two male individuals in their mid-twenties (subject A and subject B). One dataset contains time series between urinations. We measured 90 datasets from the subjects. In this experiment, datasets with urination interval of 70-100 minutes were defined as the long-term datasets. As the results of prediction, in the case of using both of short-term datasets and long-term datasets, the root mean square error (RMSE) for subject A and B were 76.70 ml, and 85.76 ml respectively. Furthermore, in the case of using long-term datasets, the RMSE for subject A and B were 54.64 ml, and 58.20 ml respectively. Comparing the results of both cases shows that the prediction applying only long-term datasets has higher accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Urinary Volume, Gaussian Process, Ultrasonic Sensor, Nursing Care, Excretion Management |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8110315&r=age |