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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Gorlin, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Maleva, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper substantiates the need for reforming the pension system in Russia, in terms of raising the retirement age, highlights the positive consequences of such a reform, analyzes potential risks, examines their prevention measures, and cites counter-arguments to the most common objections. It is shown that as a result of demographic processes, the growth of informal employment, the decrease in the length of average length of service, the number of donors decreases with the number of recipients of the pension system. In these circumstances, maintaining the level of pensions will require significant additional costs that will fall on the national economy and the state budget. Raising the retirement age as one of the measures to optimize the pension system is aimed not only at maintaining an acceptable level of pensions, preventing the growth of budget transfers and increasing the burden on business and the population. The reform will improve the situation on the labor market and will contribute to the processes of active longevity. It is shown that the main arguments against raising the retirement age are for the most part not fully justified. A number of scenarios for raising the retirement age are examined in the work, the choice of the most rational from the economic and socio-demographic points of view is justified: up to 63 years for men, up to 60 years for women with a rate of 3 months per year in the first four years of reform, then for 6 months in year. The paper identifies the main tasks that must be solved in preparation for raising the retirement age in order to carry out such a socially and economically significant reform as efficiently as possible. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031804&r=age |
| By: | Valentina Flamini; Misael Galdamez; Frederic Lambert; Mike Li; Bogdan Lissovolik; Rosalind Mowatt; Jaume Puig; Alexander D Klemm; Mauricio Soto; Saji Thomas; Christoph Freudenberg; Anna Orthofer; Andrea Herrera |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the fiscal costs of population aging in Latin America and provides policy recommendations on reforms needed to make these costs manageable. Although Latin American societies are still younger than most advanced economies, like other emerging markets the region is already in a process of population aging that is expected to accelerate in the remainder of the century. This will directly affect fiscal sustainabil-ity by putting pressure on public pension and health care systems in the region that are already more burdened than, for example, in emerging Asia, a region with a similar demographic structure. A stylized cross-country exercise, drawing on demographic projections from the United Nations and methodologies developed by the IMF to derive public spending projections, is used to quantify long-term fiscal gaps generated by population aging in 18 Latin American countries.1 Several aspects of current pensions and health care systems in Latin Amer-ica make the region’s long-term fiscal positions particularly vulnerable to population aging. |
| Date: | 2018–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfdep:18/05&r=age |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Pascual Restrepo |
| Abstract: | We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, and in particular, to more intensive use and development of robots. Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle-aged workers (those between the ages of 36 and 55). We then show that demographic change—corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers—is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commuting zones. We also provide evidence of more rapid development of automation technologies in countries undergoing greater demographic change. Our directed technological change model further predicts that the induced adoption of automation technology should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation. Both of these predictions receive support from country-industry variation in the adoption of robots. Our model also implies that the productivity implications of aging are ambiguous when technology responds to demographic change, but we should expect productivity to increase and labor share to decline relatively in industries that are most amenable to automation, and this is indeed the pattern we find in the data. |
| JEL: | J11 J23 J24 O33 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24421&r=age |
| By: | TSURU Kotaro; KUME Koichi; YASUI Kengo; SANO Shinpei |
| Abstract: | For the medium- and long-term growth of the Japanese economy, women and elderly people are expected to be part of the active labor force. On the other hand, there are also employment systems that can hinder their success, such as relocation or compulsory retirement age. In discussing the ways of the future employment system, RIETI conducted a comprehensive online questionnaire to ask currently working regular employees and retired people questions about relocation/transfer, actual retirement age, and current employment status after retirement. This paper summarizes the results. The workers who experienced relocation have advantages, such as a wide variety of work experience, strong basic ability, high annual income, good job fit, and so on, compared with workers with no experience. Regarding awareness of the retirement system, evaluation of the continuous employment system users for the system was not necessarily high, and the tolerance to wage reduction was low. Also, we find that the continuous employment system users emphasize employment stability while their willingness to work after age 65 is not high. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:18006&r=age |
| By: | Eric Delattre; Richard Moussa (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Early retirement has many causes according to economic and sociological literature. These causes may be the preference for leisure, nancial and health conditions, and social environment. In our paper, we aim to specify and estimate an econometric model to assess the early retirement decision-making process for aged workers. We specify a worker's utility function from which we derive worker's probability to retire earlier that depends on her health stock, estate value and preference for future. We also estimate an health production and an health consumption functions that are key factors in the individual's decision to retire earlier. Thus, we show that our model disentangles between three groups of workers: (i) those who choose early retirement, (ii) those who will never choose early retirement and (iii) those who are uncertain about early retirement. We also show that our predicted early retirement probability is a good predictor of early retirement as it is causal for observed early retirement. |
| Keywords: | Early retirement, Grossmann Model, Space-state model, Causality |
| JEL: | C32 C51 I12 J26 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-04&r=age |
| By: | Korotaev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinkina, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Novikov, Kirill (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the global value system and the process of its change as a result of population aging, as well as the influence of the value system on political and social dynamics. The analysis is also carried out using the microeconomic database of the World Values ??Survey (VOTS / WVS) using APC models for separating the cohort and age effect. The paper estimates two model specifications in which cohort and age effects are singled out for individual measurements of individual values. With the use of the UN Model and UN Demographic Projections estimates of 2017, we make estimates of the dynamics of the trajectories of individual value measurements and analyze of the possible consequences of the projected changes. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031806&r=age |
| By: | Abdelmajid Amine (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Audrey Bonnemaizon (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Margaret Josion Portail (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Abstract: | La relation de service engageant des publics vulnérables (i.e. patients âgés) s'inscrit dans un rapport asymétrique, au désavantage de ce dernier, nourri par les représentations du patient âgé vulnérable et par la légitimité dans l'administration des soins que s'octroient les personnels de santé. Cette asymétrie est amenée à s'incarner dans les pratiques de soins qui vont se (re)configurer le long des expériences de service entre personnels de santé et patients âgés. En mobilisant une approche qualitative auprès du personnel soignant d'un service de Gériatrie, cette recherche montre des instrumentalisations variées de la vulnérabilité du patient âgé soit pour accentuer la tutelle et le contrôle sur ce dernier, soit au contraire pour se délester de certaines tâches rentrant dans la relation de soins sur cette population ouvrant la voie à davantage de co-production des soins, à un « faire avec » les patients âgés (avec une palette de situations intermédiaires liées à la variété des contextes d'interaction). Mots-clés : Représentations du patient âgé, personnel de santé, co-production, service de soins, ruse, bricolage Abstract The service relationship engaging vulnerable individuals (i.e. elderly patients) is seen as an asymmetrical relationship, to the disadvantage of the latter, fed by the representations of the vulnerable elderly patient and by the legitimacy in the administration of the care that the Health workers give themselves. This asymmetry is incumbent on the practices of care that will be (re)configured along the service experiences between health personnel and elderly patients. By mobilizing a qualitative approach with the healthcare staff of a Geriatric service, this research shows a varied instrumentalisation of the vulnerability of the elderly patient either to accentuate the guardianship and the control on the latter or, on the contrary, to relieve certain tasks included within the care relationship on this population paving the way for more co-production of care, and to "do with" elderly patients (with a palette of intermediate situations related to the variety of interaction contexts). |
| Keywords: | ruse,bricolage,health care,Representations of elderly patient,health personnel,co-production |
| Date: | 2017–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01684213&r=age |
| By: | Arna Olafsson; Michaela Pagel |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a detailed panel of individual spending, income, account balances, and credit limits from a personal finance management software provider to investigate how expenditures, liquid savings, and consumer debt change around retirement. The longitudinal nature of our data allows us to estimate individual fixed-effects regressions and thereby control for all selection on time-invariant (un)observables. We provide new evidence on the retirement-consumption puzzle and on whether individuals save adequately for retirement. We find that, upon retirement, individuals reduce their spending in both work-related and leisure categories. However, we feel that it is difficult to tell conclusively whether expenses are work related or not, even with the best data. We thus look at household finances and find that individuals delever upon retirement by reducing consumer debt and increasing liquid savings. We argue that these findings are difficult to rationalize via, for example, work-related expenses. A rational agent would save before retirement because of the expected fall in income, and dissave after retirement, rather than the exact opposite |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E21 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24405&r=age |
| By: | Scherbov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the expected duration of healthy life for the regions of Russia. For this, the Sanderson-Shcherbov model is estimated on the microdata of the World Health Organization collected in the SAGE survey for countries with an average life expectancy. Using the obtained model estimates and mortality tables (for Russia in general and for individual Russian regions), estimates are made for the age-related prevalence of health status. Using the Sullivan model and estimated age-related prevalence rates, extended mortality tables are constructed and estimates of the expected duration of healthy life are made. This approach is used to obtain Russian regional estimates for 2015 and Russian forecast trajectories. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031805&r=age |
| By: | Pawel Adrjan; Brian Bell |
| Abstract: | Abstract How do wages respond to firm-level idiosyncratic cost shocks? We create a unique dataset that links longitudinal data on workers’ compensation to the unexpected costs that UK firms have been forced to pay to plug large deficits in their legacy defined benefit pension plans. We show that firms are able to share the burden of such costs when a significant share of their workers are current or former members of the plan. We also investigate how compensation responds to the closure of defined benefit plans to future benefit accrual. We find that firms are able to use such closures to effectively reduce total compensation of workers who are plan members. These results point to significant frictions in the labour market, which we show are a direct result of the pension arrangement that workers have. Closing schemes has an implicit cost for firms since it reduces the frictions that workers face. |
| Keywords: | Wages, Pensions, Frictions |
| JEL: | J31 J32 G32 |
| Date: | 2018–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:849&r=age |
| By: | Abdelmajid Amine (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Audrey Bonnemaizon (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Margaret Josion Portail (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Abstract: | *Université Paris-Est, IRG (EA 2354) Place de la Porte des Champs, route de Choisy, 94010 Créteil Cedex Résumé : Cette recherche a pour objectif d'explorer une relation de service encore mal connue : la prestation de soins aux patients en milieu hospitalier. Au travers d'une étude qualitative menée auprès du personnel soignant d'un service de gériatrie en Ile de France, nous mettons à jour un phénomène de résistance ordinaire aux normes prescrites, né de deux niveaux de tensions : tensions entre le temps du patient et le temps de l'organisation, d'une part, et entre prescription du pouvoir d'agir du patient et la perception de sa vulnérabilité limitant potentiellement ses capacités à agir. Cette résistance ordinaire s'exprime dans du bricolage et des ruses amenant les soignants à hybrider leurs pratiques quotidiennes pour assurer leur mission de soins. Au fil du temps, ces pratiques hybridées se diffusent et s'institutionnalisent. Abstract: This research aims at exploring an unfamiliar service relationship: healthcare services to hospitalized elderly patients. A qualitative study is conducted through interviews of healthcare workers in the geriatric ward of a French hospital. Our results uncover an ordinary resistance to prescribed standards, as a result of two levels of tensions: tensions between the time of the patient and the time of the organization, on the one hand; and tensions between a will to protect elderly patients' decision-making ability, and a perception of their physical and cognitive limitations, on the other hand. Bricolage and tricks are used by health care workers to fulfill their care mission, leading to the creation of hybrid practices which gradually disseminate in the organization. |
| Keywords: | elderly patient,norms,ordinary resistance,health marketing,Relation de service,normes,résistance ordinaire,marketing de la santé,patients âgés Keywords: Service relationship |
| Date: | 2017–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01684180&r=age |
| By: | Benson, Rebecca; Glaser, Karen; Corna, Laurie M.; Platts, Loretta G.; Di Gessa, Giorgio; Worts, Diana; Price, Debora; McDonough, Peggy; Sacker, Amanda |
| Abstract: | Background Social and policy changes in the last several decades have increased women’s options for combining paid work with family care. We explored whether specific combinations of work and family care over the lifecourse are associated with variations in women’s later life health. Methods We used sequence analysis to group women in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing according to their work histories and fertility. Using logistic regression, we tested for group differences in later life disability, depressive symptomology and mortality, while controlling for childhood health and socioeconomic position and a range of adult socio-economic circumstances and health behaviours. Results Women who transitioned from family care to either part-time work after a short break from the labour force, or to full-time work, reported lower odds of having a disability compared with the reference group of women with children who were mostly employed full-time throughout. Women who shifted from family care to part-time work after a long career break had lower odds of mortality than the reference group. Depressive symptoms were not associated with women’s work and family care histories. Conclusion Women’s work histories are predictive of their later life disability and mortality. This relationship may be useful in targeting interventions aimed at improving later life health. Further research is necessary to explore the mechanisms linking certain work histories to poorer later life health and to design interventions for those affected. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2017–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:84653&r=age |
| By: | Callum Jones |
| Abstract: | As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession. |
| Date: | 2018–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/67&r=age |
| By: | Abdelmajid Amine (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Audrey Bonnemaizon (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Margaret Josion Portail (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Date: | 2017–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01684147&r=age |