nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2017‒10‒01
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Longitudinal Determinants of End-of-Life Wealth Inequality By James M. Poterba; Steven F. Venti; David A. Wise
  2. What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory By Beetsma, Roel; Romp, Ward E; van Maurik, Ron
  3. The Impact of Raising Children on Retirement Security By Alicia H. Munnell; Wenliang Hou; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
  4. Labour Supply and Informal Care Supply: The Impacts of Financial Support for Long-Term Elderly Care By Hollingsworth, Bruce; Ohinata, Asako; Picchio, Matteo; Walker, Ian
  5. The Transition to Permanent PACE By Valerie Cheh; Leslie Foster
  6. Comparing 2SLS vs 2SRI for Binary Outcomes and Binary Exposures By Anirban Basu; Norma Coe; Cole G. Chapman
  7. Trends in SSDI Benefit Receipt: Are More Recent Birth Cohorts Entering Sooner and Receiving Benefits Longer? By Yonatan Ben-Shalom; David Stapleton; Alex Bryce
  8. Analyse des déterminants territoriaux du recours aux urgences non suivi d’une hospitalisation. By Zeynep Or; Anne Penneau
  9. IL EST TOUJOURS TEMPS D'ENTREPRENDRE By Fabienne Bornard; Emmanuel Abord de Chatillon
  10. Smoking, Health Capital, and Longevity: Evaluation of Personalized Cessation Treatments in a Lifecycle Model with Heterogeneous Agents By Li-Shiun Chen; Ping Wang; Yao Yao
  11. Housing and Well-being among the Vietnamese Elderly By Tuyen Quang Tran; Huong Vu Van
  12. Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments By Ian Koetsier; Jacob Bikker
  13. Grandmothers' labor supply By Frimmel, Wolfgang; Halla, Martin; Schmidpeter, Bernhard; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf

  1. By: James M. Poterba; Steven F. Venti; David A. Wise
    Abstract: This paper examines inequality in end-of-life wealth and the factors that contribute to individuals reaching this life stage with few financial resources. It analyzes repeated cross-sections of the Health and Retirement Study, as well as a small longitudinal sample of individuals observed both at age 65 and shortly before death. Most of those who die with little wealth had little wealth at retirement. There is strong persistence over time in the bottom tail of the wealth distribution, but the probability of having low wealth increases slowly with age after age 65. Those with low lifetime earnings are much more likely to report low wealth at retirement, and to die with little wealth, than their higher-earning contemporaries. The onset of a major medical condition and the loss of a spouse increase in the probability of falling into the low wealth category at advanced ages, although these factors appear to contribute to wealth decline for only a small fraction of those who had modest wealth at age 65 but low wealth at the time of death.
    JEL: E21 H55 J14
    Date: 2017–09
  2. By: Beetsma, Roel; Romp, Ward E; van Maurik, Ron
    Abstract: Using a narrative approach we construct a unique dataset of pension reform measures for a broad sample of OECD countries over the period since 1970 and explore the determinants of those reforms based on information available at the time of legislation. We distinguish three potential reform regimes: expansion of pension arrangements through increased coverage, eligibility or higher benefits; contraction aimed at enhancing financial and fiscal sustainability or stimulating work incentives; and a regime that combines expansionary and contractionary reform measures occurring in the same year. Over time the expansionary regime has become less prevalent. The incidence of the other two regimes has increased over time. None of the three regimes are affected by current or projected future demographic changes. This finding is remarkable, as we would a priori expect reform measures to be closely linked to long-run financial sustainability considerations. By contrast, business cycle indicators play a substantially larger role. A worsening of the business cycle enhances the likelihood of the contractionary and combination regimes, and reduces that of the expansionary regime during the second part of the sample period. We present a simple theoretical model with an adjustment cost of changing the pension arrangement that can account for the responsiveness to the business cycle and the non-responsiveness to demographic forecasts.
    Keywords: business cycle indicators; contraction; expansion; narrative identification; old-age dependency ratio; pension reform measures
    JEL: H55 H62 J11 J26
    Date: 2017–09
  3. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Wenliang Hou; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
    Abstract: Children are expensive; they require food, clothing, childcare, and an education. So, one might think that households with children would end up less well prepared for retirement than those without. But raising children is temporary, and the lifecycle model used by economists suggests two ways that parents might not endanger their retirement. One option is for parents to keep household consumption steady over time, but sharply curtail spending on themselves when they have children at home. The other is to have households plan for higher consumption while the children are at home and lower consumption when the children leave and then in retirement. Either way households would accumulate enough wealth to maintain their standard of living in retirement. But households may not behave optimally; they may increase household spending when they have children and maintain spending at that elevated level even after the children leave home. In this case, households with children may be less prepared for retirement than those without. This brief uses the National Retirement Risk Index(NRRI) to assess the impact of having children on the retirement security of today’s older working households. The NRRI is calculated by comparing households’ projected replacement rates – retirement income as a percentage of pre-retirement income – with target replacement rates that would allow them to maintain their standard of living. These calculations are based on the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, a triennial survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. As of 2013, the NRRI showed that, even if households worked to age 65 and annuitized all their financial assets (including the receipts from reverse mortgages on their homes), more than half of households were at risk of falling short in retirement. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section briefly describes the nuts and bolts of the NRRI. The second section discusses the potential impact of children on income, wealth, and retirement preparedness. The third section uses regression analysis to explore the actual impacts. The final section concludes that, in terms of retirement preparedness, having children leads to a moderate increase in the likelihood of being at risk for households in their 50s. However, the influence of children is considerably smaller than other factors, such as having an employer retirement plan.
    Date: 2017–09
  4. By: Hollingsworth, Bruce (Lancaster University); Ohinata, Asako (University of Leicester); Picchio, Matteo (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona); Walker, Ian (Lancaster University)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of a policy reform, which introduced free formal personal care for all those aged 65 and above, on caregiving behaviour. Using a difference-in-differences estimator, we estimate that the free formal care reduced the probability of co-residential informal caregiving by 12.9%. Conditional on giving co-residential care, the mean reduction in the number of informal care hours is estimated to be 1.2 hours per week. The effect is particularly strong among older and less educated caregivers. In contrast to co-residential informal care, we find no change in extraresidential caregiving behaviour. We also observe that the average labour market participation and the number of hours worked increased in response to the policy introduction.
    Keywords: long-term elderly care, ageing, financial support, informal caregiving, difference-in-differences
    JEL: C21 D14 I18 J14
    Date: 2017–09
  5. By: Valerie Cheh; Leslie Foster
    Abstract: The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) is a Medicare managed care benefit that addresses the problem of fragmentation of acute and long-term care financing and provision for frail Medicare beneficiaries.
    Keywords: PACE , Elderly Care , Health
    JEL: I
  6. By: Anirban Basu; Norma Coe; Cole G. Chapman
    Abstract: This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to examine the ability of the two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimator and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimators with varying forms of residuals to estimate the local average and population average treatment effect parameters in models with binary outcome, endogenous binary treatment, and single binary instrument. The rarity of the outcome and the treatment are varied across simulation scenarios. Results show that 2SLS generated consistent estimates of the LATE and biased estimates of the ATE across all scenarios. 2SRI approaches, in general, produce biased estimates of both LATE and ATE under all scenarios. 2SRI using generalized residuals minimizes the bias in ATE estimates. Use of 2SLS and 2SRI is illustrated in an empirical application estimating the effects of long-term care insurance on a variety of binary healthcare utilization outcomes among the near-elderly using the Health and Retirement Study.
    JEL: C26 I10 I18
    Date: 2017–09
  7. By: Yonatan Ben-Shalom; David Stapleton; Alex Bryce
    Abstract: We provide the first publicly available statistics on the extent to which recent successive birth cohorts enter Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and on cross-cohort trends in the average number of years of SSDI benefit receipt among all individuals of a given birth cohort.
    Keywords: disability, mortality, immigration
    JEL: I J
  8. By: Zeynep Or (IRDES Institut de recherche et documentation en économie de la santé); Anne Penneau (IRDES Institut de recherche et documentation en économie de la santé)
    Abstract: Les services d’urgence sont essentiels au système de santé afin de traiter rapidement les situations d’urgences médicales. Ils sont cependant souvent utilisés pour des prises en charge non urgentes pouvant être réalisées dans le secteur ambulatoire. La rapide augmentation du volume de passages aux urgences, particulièrement chez les sujets âgés, est une source de pression pour les hôpitaux et le système de soins. Cette étude a pour objectif d’identifier les déterminants territoriaux du recours aux urgences non suivi d’hospitalisation des personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus. Nous employons des modèles multiniveaux permettant d’analyser simultanément le rôle des facteurs associés à des caractéristiques des populations locales (indicateurs d’état de santé et de statut socio-économique) et à l’organisation des soins aux niveaux communal et départemental. Le taux de recours aux urgences varie significativement en fonction de la situation socio-économique et de l’état de santé de la population de la commune. En contrôlant le niveau social et l’état de santé de la commune, le taux de recours aux urgences des personnes âgées est significativement plus faible dans les territoires où l’accessibilité aux soins primaires est facilitée par la disponibilité des professionnels de santé, la permanence de soins et le déplacement au domicile des médecins généralistes. La proximité et la capacité d’accueil des services d’urgence constituent également des facteurs majeurs déterminant l’utilisation des urgences. Les taux élevés de recours aux urgences non suivis d’hospitalisation interrogent sur l’accessibilité aux services de soins ambulatoires et, plus largement, sur l’efficience de l’organisation des soins. Il existe de réelles marges de manœuvres pour réduire le recours aux urgences des personnes âgées par une optimisation du maillage territorial des services de soins ambulatoires. Par ailleurs, investir dans de nouvelles dispositions pour dispenser les soins primaires afin d’assurer la continuité et la coordination des soins peut réduire l’utilisation des services d’urgence et assurer une meilleure qualité et efficience du système de santé.
    Keywords: Organisation des soins primaires, Urgences, Soins des personnes âgées, Modélisation multiniveaux.
    JEL: C33 H4 I18 J21
    Date: 2017–09
  9. By: Fabienne Bornard (CRE-EM Lyon - CRE EM Lyon); Emmanuel Abord de Chatillon (UGA IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Le vieillissement de la population française et européenne met en exergue l’enjeu de la fin d’activité professionnelle des personnes âgées. L’une des voies encouragées pour cela est l’entrepreneuriat. Quels sont le profil et les motivations de ces « seniors » ? La littérature en entrepreneuriat pointe un certain nombre d’atouts et de handicaps mais peine à expliquer ce qui conduit les seniors à se lancer dans l’entrepreneuriat. Cette étude présente une analyse de la base de données des chambres de commerce et d’industries en France, soit 7298 porteurs de projets en 2014. Nous explorons le profil des porteurs de projet avec une analyse centrée sur la problématique de l’âge. Les analyses comparatives des plus de 50 ans/moins de 50 ans, complétées par des analyses par tranches d’âge permettent d’éclairer les ressorts et les spécificités supposées de l’entrepreneuriat des seniors. Nos résultats mettent en évidence que l’entrepreneur de plus de 50 ans se distingue peu des moins de 50 ans, y compris dans sa relation au temps évaluée par le sentiment d’urgence ou le temps de maturité du projet. Le clivage aparait au-delà de 60 ans. Nous concluons sur les limites de l’étude et sur ses enseignements pour le management mais aussi pour les politiques publiques. Distribution électronique pour ARIMHE. © ARIMHE. Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.
    Keywords: âge,entrepreneuriat, entrepreneuriat des senior
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Li-Shiun Chen; Ping Wang; Yao Yao
    Abstract: Cigarette smoking leads to large healthcare and morbidity costs, and mortality losses, and smoking cessation plays a key role in reducing health risk and economic costs. While medical evidence suggests that some smokers are more likely to respond to medication treatment than others depending on genetic markers, it remains unexplored whether pharmacogenetic testing is cost-effective in treating potential quitters of smoking. We address this knowledge gap by developing a lifecycle model in which individuals make smoking, health investment and consumption-savings decisions. Depending on an individual's genotype, smoking may bring enjoyment but deteriorates one's health, and the dynamic evolution of health capital determines life expectancy. In addition to heterogeneous genotypes, individuals also differ in demographics. We calibrate this model to fit key economic and medical observations in the U.S. We then propose three smoking cessation policies, two with standard treatments and one personalized depending on genetic markers, all under the same program costs. We construct two unified measures of effectiveness and subsequently compute the cost-effectiveness ratio. We find that personalized treatment is the most cost-effective: for each dollar of program cost, it generates $8.94 value in effectiveness, which is 22-45% higher than those under standard treatments.
    JEL: D91 E20 I10
    Date: 2017–09
  11. By: Tuyen Quang Tran (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi); Huong Vu Van (Academy of Finance, Hanoi)
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between housing and subjective well-being among the Vietnamese elderly, using data from the 2011 Vietnam Ageing Survey. Our regression analysis reveals that permanent housing and better amenities are major factors contributing to housing satisfaction and life satisfaction. Notably, we find that housing satisfaction has a strongly positive impact on life satisfaction and the impact is stronger after controlling for endogeneity problems. Thus, the finding confirms that housing is an important life domain and as a result, housing satisfaction is a strong predictor of life-satisfaction judgments. The findings might suggest that people made a rational choice when they invested a large amount of resources in their houses with notable well-being gains. Also, another implication here is that policies and programs to assist poor families in moving out of temporary accommodation or improving housing amenities are likely to be beneficial in improving well-being for the poorelderly.
    Keywords: Aging, Elderly, Endogeneity, Housing satisfaction, Subjective well-being, Vietnam
    JEL: D4 D11 D6
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Ian Koetsier; Jacob Bikker
    Abstract: This study investigates herding behaviour exhibited by Dutch pension funds in the sovereign bond market. It uses a unique dataset on sovereign bond holdings of pension funds, mutations and transactions between December 2008 and December 2014. It covers 67 large Dutch pension funds that invest in 109 countries. We find evidence of intensive herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bonds. Our findings also show that institutional factors, the macroeconomic environment and the financial market environment are among the determinants of herding behaviour in sovereign bonds. Our results also indicate that high diversification is not without costs as it intensifies herding behaviour. We find mixed evidence on whether pension funds are stabilising actors. The destabilising effect is most pronounced on the sell side, while stabilisation is most prominent under more extreme price shocks. The distinction between developing and emerging economies and developed economies does not change these results.
    Keywords: Herd behaviour; stabilising; destabilising; pension funds; sovereign bonds
    JEL: G11 G15 G18 G23
    Date: 2017–09
  13. By: Frimmel, Wolfgang; Halla, Martin; Schmidpeter, Bernhard; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf
    Abstract: The labor supply effects of becoming a grandmother are not well established in the empirical literature. We estimate the effect of becoming a grandmother on the labor supply decision of older workers. Under the assumption that grandmothers cannot predict the exact date of conception of their grandchild, we identify the effect of the first grandchild on employment (extensive margin). Our Timing-of-Events approach shows that having a first grandchild increases the probability of leaving prematurely the labor market. This effect is stronger when informal child care is more valuable to the mother. To estimate the effect of an additional grandchild (intensive margin), we assume that the incidence of a twin birth among the second generation is not correlated with unobserved determinants of the grandmother's labor supply (first generation). Our respective 2SLS estimation shows a significant effect of further grandchildren. Our results highlight the important in uence of the extended family on the decisions of older workers and point to mediating effects of different institutional settings.
    Date: 2017–09–20

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