nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2017‒05‒21
25 papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000's: Achievements and Challenges Ahead By Giuseppe Carone; Per Eckefeldt; Luigi Giamboni; Veli Laine; Stéphanie Pamies Sumner
  2. Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works? By Konle-Seidl, Regina
  3. How Will More Retirees Affect Investment Returns? By Steven A. Sass
  4. Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil By Alfredo Cuevas; Izabela Karpowicz; Carlos Mulas-Granados; Mauricio Soto
  5. Relative Wages in Aging America: The Baby Boomer Effect By Teresa Ghilarducci, Michael Papadopoulos, Siavash Radpour
  6. Collateral effects of a pension reform in France By Hélène Blake; Clémentine Garrouste
  7. Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries By Masahiro Nozaki
  8. "Midium-sized Social Spending with Low Tax Burden -tax payer’s attitude about Japan’s fiscal conundrum-" (in Japanese) By Nobuki Mochida
  9. Actuarial Inputs and the Valuation of Public Pension Liabilities and Contribution Requirements: A Simulation Approach By Gang Chen; David S. T. Matkin
  10. Dez Anos do Programa de Subvenção ao Prêmio de Seguro Agrícola: proposta de índice técnico para análise do gasto público e ampliação do seguro By Rogério Nagamine Costanzi; Graziela Ansiliero
  11. The Labor Consequences of Financializing Pensions By Teresa Ghilarducci, Amanda Novello
  12. Are “voluntary” self-employed better prepared for retirement than “forced” self-employed? By Hershey, D.A.; van Dalen, Harry; Conen, Wieteke; Henkens, Kene
  13. Coordinating the Household Retirement Decision By Irina Merkurieva
  14. Preparation for old age in France: The roles of preferences and expectations By Bénédicte H. Apouey
  15. Innovations in Protecting the Old: Mostly Social Insurance and Some Assets By Teresa Ghilarducci
  16. The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model By Vincenzo Atella; Federico Belotti; Ludovico Carrino; Andrea Piano Mortari
  17. Regional Variations in Access to Healthcare among Japanese Individuals over 50 Years Old: An analysis using JSTAR (Japanese) By SHOJI Keishi; IBUKA Yoko
  18. Using Kinked Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test By Alexander M. Gelber; Damon Jones; Daniel W. Sacks; Jae Song
  19. Positive and Negative Effects of Social Status on Longevity: Evidence from Two Literary Prizes in Japan By Shusaku Sasaki; Mika Akesaka; Hirofumi Kurokawa; Fumio Ohtake
  20. Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades By Fatih Guvenen; Greg Kaplan; Jae Song; Justin Weidner
  21. A revised approach to trend employment projections in long-term scenarios By Maria Chiara Cavalleri; Yvan Guillemette
  22. Labor Market Discrimination: A Bleak Outlook for Older Women By Teresa Ghilarducci, Kyle Moore
  23. Premium Compensation: The Ballooning Cost of Federal Government Employees By William B.P. Robson; Alexandre Laurin
  24. Household Savings Rate in National Accounts and Household Surveys in Japan (Japanese) By UNAYAMA Takashi; OHNO Taro
  25. O Benefício de Prestação Continuada na Reforma da Previdência: contribuições para o debate By Luciana Jaccoud; Ana Cleusa Mesquita; Andrea Barreto de Paiva

  1. By: Giuseppe Carone; Per Eckefeldt; Luigi Giamboni; Veli Laine; Stéphanie Pamies Sumner
    Abstract: Most EU Member States have carried out substantial pension reforms over the last decades in order to enhance fiscal sustainability, while maintaining adequate pension income. The intensity of pension reforms has been particularly strong since 2000. These reforms have been implemented through a wide range of measures that have substantially modified the pension system rules and parameters. One of the most important elements of pension reforms, aside of whether countries engaged or not in a systemic change, has been the introduction of mechanisms aimed at automatically adjusting (indexing) the key pension parameters (pension age, benefits, financing resources) to demographic pressure (e.g. changes in life expectancy, increase in the dependency ratio). Indeed, since the mid-1990's, half of the EU Member States have adopted either automatic balancing mechanisms, sustainability factors and / or automatic links between retirement age and life expectancy. All these pension reforms are projected to have a substantial impact on containing future pension expenditure trends. According to the latest long-term projections in the 2015 Ageing Report, public pension expenditure is projected to be close to 11% of GDP over the long run in the EU, almost the same as in 2013. However, the fiscal impact of ageing is still projected to be substantial in many EU countries, becoming apparent already over the course of the next two decades. This is also due to the very gradual phasing in of already legislated reforms, an issue that raises questions about the intergenerational fairness of the reforms and poses some doubt on the time-consistency of their implementation. Indeed, the sustainability-enhancing pension reforms legislated in a majority of EU countries will lead to a reduction of generosity of public pension schemes for future generations of retirees. But to make sure that these reforms will not have to face political and social resistance and risk of reversal in the moment they start to be implemented in full, other "flanking" policy measures are likely to be necessary: for example, reforms that boost retirement incomes by effectively extending working lives and employability of older workers (also through flexible working arrangements that allow people to keep working beyond current formal retirement age and to step down gradually from full-time to part-time to very part-time work) and provide other means of retirement incomes (e.g. private pensions) and appropriate social safety nets to avoid that people fall into poverty in old age.
    JEL: H55 J26 J1
    Date: 2016–12
  2. By: Konle-Seidl, Regina (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: Although the labour market situation of older workers has significantly improved over time, opportunities to work at older age still vary considerably across EU countries. To trace diverging developments and to assess what works best in retaining employment and bringing older unemployed back to work developments in five countries are analysed: Germany, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Austria. By reviewing the available evidence we find that the strengthening of financial incentives (or more precise "financial penalties") induced by pension reforms and the phasing out of countryspecific pathways to early retirement have had more effect on extending working lives than anything else. Re-integration after a job loss and the risk of persisting unemployment, however, remain specific problems of the elderly. Government sponsored programs to support the re-integration of unemployed senior workers show rather mixed results.
    JEL: I38 J14 J21 J26 J68
    Date: 2017–05–16
  3. By: Steven A. Sass
    Abstract: Private savings are an increasingly important source of retirement income. How much income people get depends on their investment returns – the interest, dividends, and profits that the private savings produce. These returns could be affected by the ongoing transition to an older society with a larger share of retirees. This brief reviews studies by the Social Security Administration’s Retirement Research Consortium and others on the long-term effect of this demographic transition on investment returns, which could moderate, or exacerbate, the nation’s retirement income challenge. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides an overview of the demographic transition and its potential effects on the supply and demand for savings. The second section reviews studies that try to identify relationships in the historical record between changes in the age structure of the population and investment returns. The third section reports on how retirees draw down their savings and the resulting impact on the supply of savings. The fourth section assesses attempts to project future investment returns. The final section concludes that the demographic transition will likely put some downward pressure on investment returns. While it is unclear how strong that pressure will be, the decline in returns will require workers to save more to secure a given amount of income in retirement.
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Alfredo Cuevas; Izabela Karpowicz; Carlos Mulas-Granados; Mauricio Soto
    Abstract: In recent decades, population has been aging fast in Brazil while old age pensions and healthrelated spending have increased. As the population ages, the spending trend threaten to reach unsustainable levels absent reforms. Increasing the retirement age is key, but by itself will not provide sufficient savings to close the pension system financing gap, and reforms reducing replacement rates are necessary. In the area of health, there is scope for improving expenditure efficiency by strengthening outpatient care and regional networks, and developing clinical guidelines for cost-effective treatments and drugs. Reforms are urgent, so that they can be gradual.
    Keywords: Brazil;Pensions;Government expenditures and health;Aging;Western Hemisphere;Health;fiscal consolidation, Social Security and Public Pensions, Demographic Trends and Forecasts
    Date: 2017–04–26
  5. By: Teresa Ghilarducci, Michael Papadopoulos, Siavash Radpour (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: As Baby Boomers remain in the work force, some due to inadequate retirement savings, the labor supply of older workers (ages 55 to 74 years old) could increase relative to the labor supply of prime-age and younger workers. Economic theory suggests an increase in the relative labor supply of older Americans could lower wages or slow wage growth for younger workers if older workers are used extensively as their substitutes rather than complements.The authors estimate the degree of complementarities between workers grouped by age and sex. The results imply that policies aimed to encourage older people to stay and enter the labor market, such as increasing Social Security’s full retirement age or raising Medicare eligibility to age 70, may have broad labor market effects by causing wage stagnation.
    Keywords: Planning, Transaction Matrix, Post-Keynesian, Monetary
    JEL: J31 J2
    Date: 2017–03
  6. By: Hélène Blake (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Clémentine Garrouste (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: How does the retirement age affect the physical and mental health of seniors? We identify this effect based on the 1993 reform of the French pension system, which was heterogeneously introduced among the population. With each cohort, the French government gradually increased the incentive to work using two tools: the contribution period required for entitlement to a full pension and the number of reference earning years taken to calculate pensions. We use a unique database on health and employment in France in 1999 and 2005, when the cohorts affected by the reform started to retire. A difference-in-differences approach, with the control group comprising public sector employees (not concerned by the 1993 reform), finds that the people more affected by the reform, and hence with a stronger incentive to work, were those posting less of an improvement and even a deterioration in their health between 1999 and 2005. Subsequently, taking the reform as a tool to filter out the potential influence of health on employment choices, we show that retirement improves physical and social health. The more physically impacted are the low-educated individuals.
    Keywords: Health,Pension Reform,Retirement
    Date: 2017–04–03
  7. By: Masahiro Nozaki
    Abstract: How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
    Date: 2017–04–26
  8. By: Nobuki Mochida (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: Taxes and social insurance contributions amounted to only 29% of GDP in Japan, the eighth-lowest share in the OECD. The share of social spending allocated to programmes focused on the elderly – pensions, long-term care and health, which rises sharply with age – is more than four-fifths, the second highest in the OECD. Ensuring fiscal sustainability will require measures to boost revenues from their relatively low levels while constraining the growth of spending, particularly that related to population ageing. On the other given that the increase in government expenditures is driven by the rise in social security spending from 12¾ of GDP in 1990 to 26¾ in 2016, social security reform is the priority. This paper analyses tax payers' attitude about low tax, medium-sized social spending and large fiscal deficits by using micro data. It became clear that closing the fiscal gap defies any attempt at a quick and simple solution.
    Date: 2016–12
  9. By: Gang Chen; David S. T. Matkin
    Abstract: This paper uses a simulated public pension system to examine the sensitivity of actuarial input changes on funding ratios and contribution requirements. We examine instantaneous and lagged effects, marginal and interactive effects, and effects under different funding conditions and demographic profiles. The findings emphasize the difficulty of conducting cross-sectional analyses of public pension systems and point to several important considerations for future research.
    Date: 2017–05
  10. By: Rogério Nagamine Costanzi; Graziela Ansiliero
    Abstract: Este estudo busca quantificar o impacto da demografia sobre a despesa da Previdência Social como proporção do produto interno bruto (PIB) até 2060 e 2100 a partir de um modelo de projeção bastante simplificado. Os resultados apontam um forte incremento da despesa em função do rápido e intenso processo de envelhecimento populacional, impacto que pode ser amenizado pelo aumento da idade de aposentadoria, incremento do nível de ocupação, ganhos de produtividade dos trabalhadores ativos que não sejam integralmente repassados para os aposentados e pensionistas e outras possibilidades de ajustes. Em qualquer cenário, deve-se investir na realização de uma reforma que corrija distorções e minimize riscos de sustentabilidade financeira e atuarial para a Previdência Social brasileira. This study sought to quantify the impact of demographics on the expense of the public pensions as a share (%) of the Gross Domestic Product GDP, by 2060 and 2100, based upon a simplified forecasting model. The results show a strong expansion in expenditures due to the fast and intense process of population ageing, an increase which can be alleviated by raising the retirement age, increasing the level of employment and limiting the transmission of the active workers productivity gains to retirees and pensioners and other adjustment possibilities. In any case, the government should conduct reforms in order to correct distortions and minimize risks for the financial and actuarial sustainability of the Brazilian social insurance schemes.
    Date: 2017–04
  11. By: Teresa Ghilarducci, Amanda Novello (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: Income in retirement has become increasingly based on individual financial assets rather than from Social Security. Using OECD data, the authors show that the instability of financialized retirement systems is related to workers staying in the labor force longer than before, as well as higher rates of old age poverty.
    Keywords: Pension Policy, Government Expenditure, Retirement, Individual Assets
    JEL: H55 H3 J2
    Date: 2017–05
  12. By: Hershey, D.A.; van Dalen, Harry (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Conen, Wieteke; Henkens, Kene (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Abstract: When it comes to financial preparation for retirement, self-employed workers in many European countries face unique challenges not encountered by traditional wage earners. This is particularly true for self-employed workers because many self-employed individuals do not have large-scale access to employer-sponsored pensions, which are a mainstay of pension support for most workers in developed countries. In this investigation, we explored the saving practices and perceived future pension adequacy of self-employed workers aged 15–65 in Germany (N = 702) and the Netherlands (N = 655). Of particular interest for understanding saving practices was whether respondents felt that they voluntarily chose to become self-employed, or whether they felt “forced” to enter self-employment due to economic or labor market pressures. Forced self-employed individuals—some 25% of those who became selfemployed out of necessity—were found to be less likely to save for retirement than their voluntary self-employed counterparts, and they envisioned a less optimistic future pension scenario for themselves. Discussion focuses on the need to change institutional practices and public policies that place self-employed individuals at a disadvantage— particularly those who are driven into self-employment based on economic pressures and a lack of opportunities in the traditional labor market.
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Irina Merkurieva (University of St Andrews)
    Abstract: This paper explores the sources of retirement synchronisation in dual career households. Empirical evidence suggests that majority of the couples exit the labor force within a short period of time, too tight to be explained by the age differences alone. This retirement coordination is frequently attributed to the complementarity of the spouses’ leisure. Contrary to this view, my estimates suggest that in a household with CES preferences the quantities of leisure consumed by husbands and wives are gross substitutes. Looking for alternative explanations, I develop a dynamic programming model of optimal retirement and labor supply decisions with uncertainty about the household structure, survival, future health status and income. Apart from leisure complementarity, four other channels may generate coordinated retirement in the model: correlated shocks to the individual health and wages, joint response to the shocks received by the household, correlated tastes for leisure due to sorting on unobservables captured by the household fixed effects, and spousal benefits provided by the Social Security. The model generates a distribution of optimal retirement timing that closely mimics the outcomes observed in the data. A counterfactual designed to shut down the family based provisions of the Social Security Act shows that most of the observed coordination can be explained by the existing Social Security policy.
    Keywords: retirement, intertemporal household choice, leisure complementarity
    JEL: J26 J14 D91
  14. By: Bénédicte H. Apouey (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study takes a unified approach to assess the roles of preferences and expectations on preparation for old age in France. Our sample is representative of the customers of a large notfor-profit insurance company (“mutuelle”) and contains 1231 individuals aged 50 year and above. We use information on the general feeling to prepare for old age, specific preparation activities in various domains (e.g. the purchase of long-term care insurance or home adaptation), risk and time attitudes, family and social altruism, and expected disability and longevity. Half of the sample reports preparing for old age. Time preference emerges as an important predictor of preparation: indeed, making plans in general increases preparation for old age by 8.5 percentage points. Family altruism is positively associated with preparation in the finances and housing domains, whereas social altruism is not. While risk attitudes and altruism matter for preparation for old age, their effect may be less systematic across outcomes than that of time preference. Individuals who expect to become disabled or to live longer are more likely to prepare for old age. Policies promoting healthy aging should include messages targeting present-oriented individuals and try to make people more future-oriented.
    Keywords: Preparation for old age,risk aversion,time preference,altruism,expected longevity
    Date: 2017–03
  15. By: Teresa Ghilarducci (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: Currently, there is an ideological commitment to individual asset building and an emphasis on individual wealth for retirement and superannuation. However, this focus embeds fatal flaws in old age income support programs. As a result, access to government subsidies for retirement savings is varied and has generated new sources of inequality. This paper was submitted to the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University for an edited volume on “Innovations in the Welfare State” edited by Joseph Stiglitz.
    Keywords: Social Security, Individual Assets, Retirement Policy
    JEL: H55 H2
    Date: 2017–05
  16. By: Vincenzo Atella (DEF and CEIS,University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Federico Belotti (DEF and CEIS,University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Ludovico Carrino (King's College London); Andrea Piano Mortari (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the evolution of public European LTC systems in the forthcoming decades, using the Europe Future Elderly Model (EuFEM), a dynamic microsimulation model which projects the health and socio-economic characteristics of the 50+ population of ten European countries, augmented with the explicit modelling of the eligibility rules of 5 countries. The use of SHARE data allows to have a better understanding of the trends in the demand for LTC differentiated by age groups, gender, and other demographic and social characteristics in order to better assess the distributional effects. We estimate the future potential coverage (or gap of coverage) of each national/regional public home-care system, and then disentangle the differences between countries in a population and a regulation effects. Our analysis offers new insights on how would the demand for LTC evolve over time, what would the distributional effects of different LTC policies be if no action is taken, and what could be potential impact of alternative care policies.
    Keywords: Dynamic Microsimulation, Long Term Care, Forecast, disability, Regulation
    JEL: I11 I18 C53 C63 J14 J11
    Date: 2017–05–08
  17. By: SHOJI Keishi; IBUKA Yoko
    Abstract: Studies have repeatedly reported regional variations in health conditions within a country, but the reason behind such disparities is still under debate. In this study, among the contributors to health disparities, we focus on healthcare-seeking behavior. We examine how regional characteristics affect such behavior of individuals over 50 years old regarding screening and controlling common chronic conditions such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes. Our analysis using the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR) shows that there are differences of at least three to 10 percentage points in the proportion of those who seek care across 10 areas covered. On applying a multilevel regression framework, we find that the vast majorities of these differences are due to composition effects, namely, the difference in the distribution of health risk at the individual level. We also find that regional characteristics do not play a major role in explaining the difference in healthcare-seeking activities. However, the concentration of healthcare resources in a region is found to be correlated with the decision to seek healthcare for certain chronic conditions, suggesting that the role of healthcare resources could differ by chronic condition.
    Date: 2017–05
  18. By: Alexander M. Gelber; Damon Jones; Daniel W. Sacks; Jae Song
    Abstract: We develop a method for estimating the effect of a kinked budget set on workers' employment decisions, and we use it to estimate the impact of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Annual Earnings Test (AET). The AET reduces OASI claimants' current OASI benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a Regression Kink Design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the employment rate. We develop conditions in a general setting under which we can use such patterns to estimate the elasticity of the employment rate with respect to the effective average net-of-tax rate. Our resulting elasticity point estimate for the AET is at least 0.49, suggesting that the AET reduces employment by more than one percentage point in the group we study.
    JEL: H24 H31 H55 J14 J22
    Date: 2017–04
  19. By: Shusaku Sasaki; Mika Akesaka; Hirofumi Kurokawa; Fumio Ohtake
    Abstract: We show evidence that receiving Japan’s Akutagawa and Naoki Prizes for literature has positive and negative effects on their recipients’ longevity. Using a dataset covering both awards, we show that recipients of the Akutagawa Prize for rising novelists exhibit lower mortality than fellow nominees. The increase of longevity is estimated at 2.4 years. Recipients of the Naoki Prize for established novelists exhibit higher mortality than fellow nominees, and the decreased longevity is 5.1 years. These results indicate that both positive and negative causal effects run from receiving a prize to longevity. Additional analysis indicate the possibility that positive effects are likely to be larger than a negative effect when candidates exhibit unstable socio-economic status, and then we find a positive net effect on longevity from receiving the Akutagawa Prize. In doing so, this study contributes to clarifying why earlier studies show conflicting relationships between receiving awards and recipients’ longevity.
    Date: 2016–04
  20. By: Fatih Guvenen; Greg Kaplan; Jae Song; Justin Weidner
    Abstract: Using panel data on individual labor income histories from 1957 to 2013, we document two empirical facts about the distribution of lifetime income in the United States. First, from the cohort that entered the labor market in 1967 to the cohort that entered in 1983, median lifetime income of men declined by 10%–19%. We find little-to-no rise in the lower three-quarters of the percentiles of the male lifetime income distribution during this period. Accounting for rising employer-provided health and pension benefits partly mitigates these findings but does not alter the substantive conclusions. For women, median lifetime income increased by 22%–33% from the 1957 to the 1983 cohort, but these gains were relative to very low lifetime income for the earliest cohort. Much of the difference between newer and older cohorts is attributed to differences in income during the early years in the labor market. Partial life-cycle profiles of income observed for cohorts that are currently in the labor market indicate that the stagnation of lifetime incomes is unlikely to reverse. Second, we find that inequality in lifetime incomes has increased significantly within each gender group. However, the closing lifetime gender gap has kept overall lifetime inequality virtually flat. The increase within gender groups is largely attributed to an increase in inequality at young ages, and partial life-cycle income data for younger cohorts indicate that the increase in inequality is likely to continue. Overall, our findings point to the substantial changes in labor market outcomes for younger workers as a critical driver of trends in both the level and inequality of lifetime income over the past 50 years.
    JEL: E24 J24 J31
    Date: 2017–04
  21. By: Maria Chiara Cavalleri; Yvan Guillemette
    Abstract: The paper describes revisions to the trend employment component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. Starting with historical age and sex-specific employment rates, a novel approach is developed to correct for cyclical effects using the country-level employment gap while allowing the different sex and age groups to exhibit different sensitivities to the economic cycle. From the resulting cyclically adjusted age/sex-specific employment rates, trend entry and exit rates into/out of employment are computed using the traditional cohort approach. The different employment propensities of existing cohorts are then used to project future employment rates, with entry and exit rates of new cohorts assumed to mimic the most recent ones. To construct scenarios, the model allows a number of policy settings to influence employment rate projections, notably the legal retirement age, tax wedges, family benefits, etc. The sizes of these effects are sourced from recent OECD work on the quantification of structural reforms, and are also specific to sex and age groups. The trend total employment projection is obtained by aggregating age/sex-specific employment rate projections using external demographic projections.
    Keywords: cohort model, cyclical adjustment, employment gap, long-term model, long-term scenarios, potential employment, projections, Trend employment
    JEL: C53 E24 E27 J21
    Date: 2017–05–18
  22. By: Teresa Ghilarducci, Kyle Moore (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: Older women face worse age discrimination than men in the labor market. This results in lower pay for older women than for older men, and a more difficult time finding work when unemployed. This short paper outlines why this might be the case and offers an outlook for the future.
    Keywords: Older workers, labor discrimination, wage gap
    JEL: J3 J7
    Date: 2017–05
  23. By: William B.P. Robson; Alexandre Laurin
    Keywords: Retirement Saving and Income
    JEL: H50
  24. By: UNAYAMA Takashi; OHNO Taro
    Abstract: We have constructed household savings rate data that are consistent with the macro data, or National Accounts, yet are based on the micro data of the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (NSFIE). Unlike the official NSFIE data, we calculate the savings rate for all households including the self-employed. In addition, on the consumption side, we address the underreporting problem in large expenditures such as durables as pointed out in previous studies by exploiting information from the Survey of Household Economy. According to the data constructed here, the decreasing trend in the savings rate can hardly be explained with the aging population, while the life-cycle hypothesis predicts that aging should be the main cause of the lower savings rate.
    Date: 2017–04
  25. By: Luciana Jaccoud; Ana Cleusa Mesquita; Andrea Barreto de Paiva
    Abstract: Este estudo analisa as regras atuais que organizam a oferta e acesso ao Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC), bem como as alterações sugeridas neste benefício pela Proposta de Emenda Constitucional (PEC) no 287/2016. As mudanças apresentadas no texto da PEC incidem sobre dois aspectos: aumento para a idade mínima de acesso de 65 anos para 70 anos, e desvinculação do valor do benefício assistencial ao salário mínimo. São discutidas no texto, as justificativas para a reforma do BPC, referentes tanto aos desestímulos à contribuição previdenciária como às mudanças demográficas, assim como são estimados possíveis impactos das alterações propostas. O estudo conclui que as medidas, se aprovadas, tendem a reduzir a cobertura e ampliar a vulnerabilidade de renda de idosos e de pessoas com deficiência no país.
    Date: 2017–04

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