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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Gorlin, Yury Mikhailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fedorov, Vitaly (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Objective demographic and socioeconomic tendencies stipulate the increasing number of retirees with respect to employees and employers who pay compulsory pension contributions. This intensifies the financial pressure on the pension system. Since the problem of raising the retirement age has not been solved, the one way to improve the financial stability of the pension system is to incentivise the delayed retirement. The necessity for the development and realisation of a mechanism for additional incentives for the delayed retirement was anticipated in the Strategy for the long-term development of the Russian Pension System (Strategy). With the aim of realisation of the Strategy, within the framework of the development of a new pension formula, there was anticipated additional coefficients for individual pension coefficients. These coefficients are used to calculate the base and insurance parts of the old-age pension. During the development of the Federal law about insurance pensions and appropriate measures to incentivise the delayed retirement, the macroeconomics situation in the Russian Federation was more stable than nowadays. A deterioration in the macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation, in addition with the growth of the geopolitical instability after 2014, caused an increase in socioeconomic uncertainty and associated risks, including risks of the pension system. Public confidence in the pension system was threatened by self-contradicting statements from government officials from different Ministries and insufficiently consistent actions with respect to funded defined contribution pension scheme. As a result, according to the data from the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (2Q2015), less then 20 thousand people decided to delay their retirement. Therefore, in the new macroeconomic reality it is an actual task to review measures that was developed to incentivise the delayed retirement. |
| Keywords: | pension, pension savings, delayed retirement |
| Date: | 2016–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2833&r=age |
| By: | Gianko Michailidis (Universitat de Barcelona); Concepció Patxot (Universitat de Barcelona); Meritxell Solé Juvés (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the effect of the demographic transition on public education, pension spending and the interaction between them. In particular, we investigate the theoretical prediction that the structure of PAYG pension systems, alongside population ageing, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to "reap" the benefits of their higher productivity in the future, translated into higher income tax/contributions. The empirical evidence resulting from the application of the fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has non-linear effects on both retirement and education spending. The former suggests that political pressure to increase benefits turns out to have no effect when the ageing process is strong enough to compromise the fiscal budget and the latter indicates a certain degree of generational conflict. Nevertheless, our results suggest that a positive link arises when examining the connection between education and pensions by using the projected old dependency ratio. A more detailed analysis of total education expenditure shows that only the non-mandatory educational levels benefit from the future population ageing. |
| Keywords: | Public Finance, Population ageing, Education, Pension Politics, PAYG, Macroeconomics. |
| JEL: | H52 H53 H55 I22 J11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:344web&r=age |
| By: | Maciej Lis |
| Abstract: | The most important engines for the growth of aggregate health care expenditures (HCE) in last 50 years in OECD have been growth of income, technological progress in medicine and their interaction with institutional setting. The accelerating ageing is expected to additionally fuel the growth of HCE. The interaction between the growth factors with age is crucial for understanding the impact of ageing on health care expenditures. We propose a non-linear framework for testing the dynamics of the interaction of the growth of HCE with age structure. This framework utilizes the micro and cohort evidence from other studies on the shape of HCE and time-to-death. We have found that the growth of health care expenditure in recent decades in 26 OECD was concentrated on the close-to-death expenditures. Close-to-death HCE demonstrated twice higher growth rates than expenditures more distant from death. No clear dynamics of age pattern has been however identified. |
| Keywords: | health, modelling |
| JEL: | H51 I12 I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp062016&r=age |
| By: | Sven Schreiber; Miriam Beblo |
| Abstract: | We revisit the alleged retirement consumption puzzle. According to the life-cycle theory, foreseeable income reductions such as those around retirement should not affect consumption. However, we first recall that given higher leisure endowments after retirement, the theory does predict a fall of total market consumption expenditures. In order not to mistake this predicted drop for a puzzle we focus on housing consumption which can be plausibly regarded as complementary to leisure, and we control for the leisure change in our empirical specifications, using micro data for Germany (SOEP), where housing expenditures are observable as rents for the majority (60%), as well as dwelling relocations. We still find significant negative impacts of the retirement status on housing consumption, which is hard to reconcile with the life-cycle theory. For retirees we also find significant effects of the income reduction at retirement on housing. However, the effects are small in quantitative terms, given the lock-in nature of past housing decisions. |
| Keywords: | consumption smoothing, retirement-consumption puzzle, SOEP |
| JEL: | D91 E21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp849&r=age |
| By: | Bratti, Massimiliano (University of Milan); Frattini, Tommaso (University of Milan); Scervini, Francesco (Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia (IUSS)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we exploit pension reform-induced changes in retirement eligibility requirements to assess the role of grandparental child care availability in the employment of women who have children under 15. We focus on Italy for two reasons: first, it has low rates of female employment and little formal child care provision, and second, it has undergone several pension reforms in a relatively short time span. Our analysis shows that, among the women studied, those whose own mothers are retirement eligible have a 13 percent higher probability of being employed than those whose mothers are ineligible. The pension eligibility of maternal grandfathers and paternal grandparents, however, has no significant effect on the women's employment probability. We also demonstrate that the eligibility of maternal grandmothers mainly captures the effect of their availability for child care. Hence, pension reforms, by potentially robbing households of an important source of flexible, low-cost child care, could have unintended negative consequences for the employment rates of women with children. |
| Keywords: | grandparental child care, maternal employment, pension reform, retirement |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9979&r=age |
| By: | Deindl, Christian; Tieben, Nicole (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA)) |
| Abstract: | Der Bildungserfolg von Kindern hängt in vielen Fällen von den materiellen und kulturellen Ressourcen der Eltern ab. In vielen Familien stellen jedoch auch Großeltern Ressourcen zur Verfügung, die direkt und indirekt die Bildungslaufbahn ihrer Enkelkinder unterstützen. Im vorliegenden Papier untersuchen wir aus einer Drei-Generationenperspektive, welchen Einfluss Großeltern auf den Bildungsabschluss ihrer Enkelkinder in verschiedenen europäischen Ländern haben. Mithilfe der Daten des Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) ist es möglich, die Bildungsweitergabe in einem Drei-Generationenkontext im internationalen Vergleich zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der eigenständige Einfluss der Großeltern nicht zu vernachlässigen ist: Besonders wenn Eltern geringe Ressourcen haben und in Ländern mit geringen Bildungsausgaben, gleichen Großeltern diese Mängel aus. |
| JEL: | I24 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mea:meawpa:201601&r=age |
| By: | Lauren L. Schmitz; Dalton Conley |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether the effect of job loss on body mass index (BMI) at older ages is moderated by genotype using twenty years of socio-demographic and genome-wide data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). To avoid any potential confounding we interact layoffs due to a plant or business closure—a plausibly exogenous environmental exposure—with a polygenic risk score for BMI in a regression-adjusted semiparametric differences-in-differences matching framework that compares the BMI of those before and after an involuntary job loss with a control group that has not been laid off. Results indicate genetically-at-risk workers who lost their job before they were eligible for Social Security benefits, or before age 62, were more likely to gain weight. Further analysis reveals heterogeneous treatment effects by demographic, health, and socioeconomic characteristics. In particular, we find high risk individuals who gained weight after a job loss were more likely to be male, in worse health, single, and at the bottom half of the wealth distribution. Across the board, effects are concentrated among high-risk individuals who were not overweight prior to job loss, indicating unemployment at older ages may trigger weight gain in otherwise healthy or normal weight populations. |
| JEL: | I1 J63 J69 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22348&r=age |
| By: | Kaixing Huang (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | Idea-based growth models usually predict that economic growth rates are increasing with the level or growth rate of the population. This scale effect prediction is intuitive and derived directly from the nonrivalry of ideas. However, time-series data over the last century generally did not support this scale effect prediction. This article illustrates why scale effects were unobservable. A modified idea-based model shows that economic growth rates increase with investments in human capital accumulation and population growth rates. The offsetting movements of these two factors during the demographic transition of the last century obscured the scale effects. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, scale effects, human capital, population, demographic transition |
| JEL: | E27 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2016-08&r=age |
| By: | Mehmet Y. Gürdal; Tolga U. Kuzubaþ; Burak Saltoðlu |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2016/02&r=age |
| By: | Nicolas Sirven (IRDES Institut de recherche et documentation en économie de la santé, Université Paris Descartes); Thomas Rapp (Université Paris Descartes) |
| Abstract: | La fragilité de la personne âgée préfigure un risque d’événements péjoratifs et d’évolution vers la dépendance. L’objectif de ce travail consiste à évaluer le coût économique de la fragilité au travers du surplus de dépenses de santé ambulatoires qu’elle suscite, indépendamment des coûts induits par d’autres pathologies. Nous utilisons les données de l’Enquête santé et protection sociale (ESPS) de l’Irdes, appariées aux remboursements de soins déclarés par les individus. L’échantillon est représentatif de la population des 65 ans et plus vivant en ménage ordinaire en 2012. Un modèle GLM est spécifié avec une forme fonctionnelle exponentielle et une variance des estimateurs de loi Gamma. L’effet de la fragilité est estimé en tenant compte des autres mesures de santé disponibles dans l’enquête (maladies chroniques, limitations fonctionnelles, distance à la mort et un indice composite de plusieurs mesures de santé). Les résultats indiquent que le surcoût associé à la fragilité est d’environ 1 500 €, et de 750 € pour les pré-fragiles. L’introduction de la fragilité contribue à l’amélioration de l’identification des modèles de dépense de santé quelles que soient les mesures de santé alternatives retenues. La fragilité joue le rôle d’une variable omise. En sa présence, l’âge n’a plus d’effet significativement différent de zéro dans les modèles, ce qui affaiblit l’hypothèse d’un effet du vieillissement démographique sur les dépenses de santé. |
| Keywords: | Dépenses de santé, Handicap fonctionnel, Fragilité, Modèles linéaires généralisés, Soins ambulatoires, Vieillissement de la population. |
| JEL: | I11 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irh:wpaper:dt71&r=age |