nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2016‒06‒14
fourteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia By LEE Sang-Hyop; KIM Jungsuk; PARK Donghyun
  2. Demographics and real interest rates: inspecting the mechanism By Carvalho, Carlos; Ferrero, Andrea; Nechio, Fernanda
  3. Is the belgian Youth Ready for the Reformed Pension System ? By Sidney De Cecco; Antonio Estache
  4. The Impact of Fiscal Subsidy on China’s New Rural Pension System By Lin, Benxi; Zhang, Yu Yvette; Lin, Zongjian; Wang, Yongli; Liu, Weiping
  5. Mapping and Analysis of ICT-enabled Social Innovation initiatives promoting social investment in integrated approaches to the provision of social services: IESI Knowledge Map 2015 By Gianluca Misuraca; Csaba Kucsera; Fiorenza Lipparini; Christian Voigt; Raluca Radescu
  6. Proyecciones de población = Population projections By -
  7. Who Wins? Evaluating the Impact of UK Public Sector Pension Scheme Reforms By Danzer, Alexander M.; Dolton, Peter; Rosazza Bondibene, Chiara
  8. Why Do Children Take Care of Their Elderly Parents? Are the Japanese Any Different? By Charles Yuji Horioka; Emin Gahramanov; Aziz Hayat; Xueli Tang
  9. The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions By Carlos Dobkin; Amy Finkelstein; Raymond Kluender; Matthew J. Notowidigdo
  10. An International Comparative Study of Financing Healthcare: The Case of Eight Developed Countries in 1990s- 2000s By Kazuaki Sato; Yui Ohtsu; Shintaro Kurachi; Leo Shimamura; Yasuto Dobashi
  11. The age-structure–inflation puzzle By Juselius, Mikael; Takats, Elod
  12. Social Security Reform and Economic Modeling Capacity Building in Indonesia By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  13. The Economic Incidence of Social Security Contributions: A Discontinuity Approach with Linked Employer-Employee Data By Kai-Uwe Müller; Michael Neumann
  14. Development of the Concept of Information and Psychological Service to Build a Career Path for Civil Servants of the Senior Age Group By Sinyagin, Y. V.; Sheburakov, I. B.

  1. By: LEE Sang-Hyop (East-West Center and University of Hawaii); KIM Jungsuk (Institute of International and Area Studies, Sogang University, Korea); PARK Donghyun (Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines)
    Abstract: Changes in the population age structure can have a significant effect on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenue and expenditure. For example, population ageing will increase expenditure on the elderly while reducing potential growth and hence revenue. In this paper, we project government revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050. Using a simple stylised model and the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data set, we simulate the effect of both demographic changes and economic growth. Rapidly ageing countries like the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system. On the other hand, rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer countries with relatively young populations and still growing working-age populations. Overall, our simulation results indicate that Asia’s population ageing will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability, pointing to a need for Asian countries to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health.
    Keywords: Fiscal projection, tax, public spending, fiscal balance, population ageing, Asia
    JEL: J11 J14 H20 H50 H62
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: Carvalho, Carlos (PUC-Rio); Ferrero, Andrea (University of Oxford); Nechio, Fernanda (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity—or expectations thereof—puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital. On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio (the fraction of retirees to workers). Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect lowers the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up. We calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success.
    JEL: E52 E58 J11
    Date: 2016–03–01
  3. By: Sidney De Cecco; Antonio Estache
    Abstract: The paper analyses levels of financial literacy among university students in a Belgian University and links them to their retirement savings preferences in a context in which a reform of the pension system has increased the importance of making individual retirement savings decisions at an early age. The core information is generated through a survey questionnaire including a small scenario, a financial literacy evaluation and questions on savings preferences. It is then processed through a logit model. The results show that financial literacy is relatively high in our sample of university students. However, differences between demographic groups matter to financial literacy and savings decisions.
    Keywords: financial literacy; retirement savings; savings decisions; students
    Date: 2015–07
  4. By: Lin, Benxi; Zhang, Yu Yvette; Lin, Zongjian; Wang, Yongli; Liu, Weiping
    Abstract: This paper studied the impact of fiscal subsidies on the participation rate and contributions of the rural residents in the China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) program, where the fiscal subsidies include the incentive pension and the matching subsidy. The results showed that incentive Pension can significantly improve the rural residents' participation rates, but participation rate of young residents are less than the older residents. We also showed that matching subsidy does not affect the rural residents' participation significantly. Our results suggest that the current fiscal subsidies play an important role in the establishment and expansion of the NRPS program, but have not increased the participation rate of younger people, which was one of the initial goals of NRPS.
    Keywords: Pension System, Rural Economy, Fiscal Subsidy, China, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Public Economics, O1, O2, I3, I38, H3,
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Gianluca Misuraca (European Commission - JRC - IPTS); Csaba Kucsera (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Fiorenza Lipparini (The Young Foundation); Christian Voigt (ZSI - Zentrum für Soziale Innovation); Raluca Radescu
    Abstract: This report presents the analysis of the Mapping 2015 of the project 'ICT-enabled Social Innovation to support the Implementation of the Social Investment Package' (IESI). It provides an enriched picture of the existing knowledge base and evidence of how ICT-enabled social innovation initiatives that promote social investment through integrated approaches to social services delivery can contribute to the policy objectives of the EU Social Investment Package (SIP) to support the achievement of the goals of the EU 2020 strategy in terms of inclusive growth and employment. After having introduced the policy and research background outlining the overall objectives and scope of the IESI research and the aim of the mapping 2015, the report provides an overview of the methodology followed for enriching the IESI inventory of ICT-enabled social innovation initiatives through a structured dynamic database and by conducting the mapping and analysis of a selected sample of 210 initiatives. The report then updates the review of the literature and practice in domains related to the role and impact of ICT-enabled social innovation promoting social investment, with a specific focus on the area of active and healthy ageing and long-term care for older people, particularly the theme: prevention, health promotion and rehabilitation. In reviewing the state of the art the report discusses the degree of deployment of ICT-enabled social innovations that promote social investment through integrated approaches to social services provision in terms of geographical spread and different areas of social services covered, providing insight into the levels and types of deployment achieved. Further, the IESI conceptual framework which underpins the research and which has been used to guide the mapping and analysis of initiatives is discussed, proposing additional dimensions in order to enrich the framework of analysis itself. Evolving theoretical approaches are taken into account, the aim being to better explain the implications ICT-enabled social innovation initiatives have or may have for social policy reforms. This is followed by an overview of the consolidated results of the analysis of the initiatives collected as part of the IESI mapping exercise in 2014 and 2015. The analysis presents the IESI Knowledge Map 2015, which aims to provide a better understanding of the main characteristics and patterns of the initiatives identified, according to the IESI conceptual framework. Reference is also made to the different welfare systems and social services delivery models which characterise various EU countries in order to contextualise the potential role played by ICT-enabled social innovation to promote social investment through integrated approaches to social services delivery. The findings of specific thematic analyses conducted on a set of selected topics: 1) the role of social enterprise-driven ICT-enabled social innovation initiatives in support of social services delivery; and the implications of ICT-enabled social innovation that promote social investment through integrated approaches to social services delivery in support of: 2) active inclusion of young people; and 3) active and healthy ageing and long-term care for older people, particularly as regards prevention, health promotion and rehabilitation are then presented. Finally, the main conclusions deriving from the analysis of the mapping in terms of the contribution made by ICT-enabled social innovation promoting social investment through integrated approaches to social services delivery to the implementation of the SIP are outlined. This is complemented by an analysis of the gaps identified; the limitations of the current mapping exercise and recommendations for future research, as well as implications and possible directions for policy.
    Keywords: Social policy, Innovation, ICTs, Welfare, Mapping, EU
    Date: 2016–05
  6. By: -
    Abstract: El Observatorio Demográfico 2015 reúne indicadores seleccionados de la revisión de 2015 de las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población nacional, urbana, rural y económicamente activa. Las cifras contenidas en esta publicación constituyen una revisión de las presentadas en el Observatorio 2014. En esta oportunidad, se actualizaron las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población a nivel nacional desde 1950 hasta 2100, considerando las nuevas fuentes de información disponibles para Chile y Guatemala. En las próximas ediciones se irán incorporando las nuevas estimaciones y proyecciones de población, elaboradas con el método de los componentes, pero por edades simples y años calendario. Como es habitual, se incluye un capítulo en el que se analizan las tendencias demográficas. En esta oportunidad, se examinan los avances en el descenso de la fecundidad más allá de lo proyectado a fines de la década de 1980 y su impacto en el crecimiento de la población. En las notas técnicas de este Observatorio se enumeran las fuentes de datos consideradas para cada país.
    Date: 2016–05
  7. By: Danzer, Alexander M. (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Dolton, Peter (University of Sussex); Rosazza Bondibene, Chiara (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR))
    Abstract: Radical changes have been implemented to pension schemes across the UK public sector from April 2015. This paper simulates how these changes will affect the lifetime pension and how the negotiated pension changes compare across six public sector schemes by level of education. Specifically, we simulate the occupation specific Defined Benefit (DB) pension wealth accumulated for a representative employee over the lifecycle by factoring in the recent changes to pension conditions. We find that less educated workers with low or moderate earnings in the NHS, Local Government and Civil Service schemes are the winners having secured an increase in the value of their pension of between 10-20%. Graduate workers with faster wage growth in the Civil Service, Teachers and Local Government schemes loose between 3% and 5%. This is in sharp contrast with the Police and Fire forces who have lost around 40% irrespective of their education.
    Keywords: pension reforms, public sector, defined benefit
    JEL: J32 H55 J45
    Date: 2016–05
  8. By: Charles Yuji Horioka; Emin Gahramanov; Aziz Hayat; Xueli Tang
    Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why individuals provide care and attention to their elderly parents using a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous saving and a “contest success function” and test this model using micro data from a Japanese household survey, the Osaka University Preference Parameter Study. To summarize our main findings, we find that the Japanese are more likely to live with (or near) their elderly parents and/or to provide care and attention to them if they expect to receive a bequest from them, which constitutes strong support for the selfish bequest motive or the exchange motive (much stronger than in the United States), but we find that their caregiving behavior is also heavily influenced by the strength of their altruism toward their parents and social norms.
    JEL: D12 D64 D91 E21 J14
    Date: 2016–05
  9. By: Carlos Dobkin; Amy Finkelstein; Raymond Kluender; Matthew J. Notowidigdo
    Abstract: We examine some economic impacts of hospital admissions using an event study approach in two datasets: survey data from the Health and Retirement Study, and hospital admissions data linked to consumer credit reports. We report estimates of the impact of hospital admissions on out-of-pocket medical spending, unpaid medical bills, bankruptcy, earnings, income (and its components), access to credit, and consumer borrowing. The results point to three primary conclusions: non-elderly adults with health insurance still face considerable exposure to uninsured earnings risk; a large share of the incremental risk exposure for uninsured non-elderly adults is borne by third parties who absorb their unpaid medical bills; the elderly face very little economic risk from adverse health shocks.
    JEL: D14 I10 I13
    Date: 2016–05
  10. By: Kazuaki Sato (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Yui Ohtsu (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research); Shintaro Kurachi (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University); Leo Shimamura (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Yasuto Dobashi (Institute of Contemporary British History, King's College London)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between healthcare expenditures and fiscal structures by conducting an international comparison. The difference between a social insurance scheme and a taxation scheme has long been recognized to be a major influence on fiscal resources for medical policies, but it cannot help fully explain the ease of finance. Authors present a comparative analysis of the trend of healthcare expenditures and fiscal structures in the period from 1990 to 2010 in eight countries, namely, Japan, the Netherlands, and France on the one hand (which adopted a social insurance scheme), the U.K., Sweden, Denmark, and Norway on the other (which adopted a taxation scheme). This paper found that healthcare expenditures has increased in centralized countries that have an authority to set insurance premiums or tax rates regardless of population aging.
    Keywords: healthcare expenditure, social insurance scheme, taxation scheme, financial structure, international comparison
    JEL: H51 I13 H77
    Date: 2016–03–30
  11. By: Juselius, Mikael; Takats, Elod
    Abstract: We uncover a puzzling link between low-frequency inflation and the population age-structure: the young and old (dependents) are inflationary whereas the working age population is disinflationary. The relationship is not spurious and holds for different specifications and controls in data from 22 advanced economies from 1955 to 2014. The age-structure effect is economically sizable, accounting eg for about 6.5 percentage points of US disinflation from 1975 to today’s low inflation environment. It also accounts for much of inflation persistence, which challenges traditional narratives of trend inflation. The age-structure effect is forecastable and will increase inflationary pressures over the coming decades.
    Keywords: demography, ageing, inflation, monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E52 J11
    Date: 2016–04–02
  12. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: While official poverty in Indonesia is relatively low at 12%, an additional 27% of the population live just above the poverty line and small shocks can drive them back into poverty.
    Keywords: social protection briefs, adb brief 46, indonesia social security, social security reform, sss, sjsn law, bpjs employment, bpjs health, social services, indonesia social protection, indonesia health care, pension, national health insurance, adb ta 7204, adb ta 8202
    Date: 2015–11
  13. By: Kai-Uwe Müller; Michael Neumann
    Abstract: We estimate economic incidence of social security contributions (SSC) on the basis of cross-sectional earnings distributions. The approach exploits discontinuities in earnings distributions at kinks in the budget set which are informative about tax incidence. Contrary to most research on SSC incidence, it does not rely on policy reforms, panel data, or hours information. When the location of kinks does not change significantly, estimates represent equilibrium incidence and are less affected by short-run adjustment frictions than results based on policy reforms. We refine the framework proposed by Alvaredo and Saez (2007), discuss identifying assumptions and related problems in empirical applications. We also suggest parametric and non- parametric estimators. The approach is applied to earnings caps of SSC in Germany where the marginal SSC rate drops to zero. The linked employer-employee data used provide precise measures of gross and net earnings. Utilizing two separate earnings distributions improves identification in the presence of measurement error. We find substantial negative discontinuities at most earnings caps of SSC in the distribution of observed net earnings. Together with smooth gross earnings distributions around the caps this provides consistent empirical evidence that legal and economic incidence of SSC coincide.
    Keywords: Incidence, social security contributions, discontinuities, linked employer-employee data
    JEL: H22 J38 H55 J20
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Sinyagin, Y. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sheburakov, I. B. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This work aims to study individual career paths of civil servants of the senior age group. At the same time the main focus of research is information-psychological support to build a career trajectory civil servants of the senior age group as a tool to improve the efficiency of government agencies and improve the quality of self-employees themselves. The purpose of the use of this information and psychological service is to improve the implementation of HR policy, the introduction and development of modern technologies of personnel in the civil service in the process of creating the conditions for a more complete use of personal and professional resources of the civil servants of the senior age group. As a result, it developed the concept of information and psychological service for building a career trajectory civil servants of the senior age group.
    Keywords: career, civil servants, senior age group
    Date: 2016–03–10

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