nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2016‒04‒23
twelve papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Fertility policies and social security reforms in China By Nicolas Coeurdacier; Stéphane Guibaud; Keyu Jin
  2. Government Old-Age Support and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Old Age Assistance Program By Daniel K. Fetter; Lee M. Lockwood
  3. L’équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraite en France : une approche par caisse de retraite sur données de l’EIR 2012 By Christophe Daniel; Anne Lavigne; Stéphane Mottet; Jesus-Herell Nze Obame; Bruno Séjourné; Christian Tagne
  4. Does Postponing Minimum Retirement Age Improve Healthy Behaviours Before Retirement? Evidence from Middle-Aged Italian Workers By Bertoni, Marco; Brunello, Giorgio; Mazzarella, Gianluca
  5. Your Retirement and My Health Behaviour: Evidence on Retirement Externalities from a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design By Müller, Tobias; Shaikh, Mujaheed
  6. Coordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations By Zhi Da; Borja Larrain; Clemens Sialm; José Tessada
  8. Life Insurance Holdings and Well-Being of Surviving Spouses By Harris, Timothy; Yelowitz, Aaron
  9. Previdência Pública Brasileira em uma Perspectiva Internacional: custeio, benefícios e gastos By Milko Matijascic
  10. Os Fundos Brasileiros de Previdência Complementar:segmentações analíticas e estudos preliminares sobre a alocação de seus recursos By Bruno De Conti
  11. Do Bilateral Social Security Agreements Deliver on the Portability of Pensions and Health Care Benefits? A Summary Policy Paper on Four Migration Corridors Between EU and Non-EU Member States By Holzmann, Robert
  12. Positive and Negative Effects of Social Status on Longevity:Evidence from Two Literary Prizes in Japan By Shusaku Sasaki; Mika Akesaka; Hirofumi Kurokawa; Fumio Ohtake

  1. By: Nicolas Coeurdacier; Stéphane Guibaud; Keyu Jin
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of relaxing fertility controls and expanding social security in China. We develop an overlapping generations model in which fertility decisions and capital accumulation are endogenously determined in the presence of social security. In our model, children are an alternative savings technology—as they transfer resources to their retired parents. Important feedback links arise between fertility and social security variables: an expansion of social security benefits reduces fertility—partially offsetting the effects of relaxing the one-child policy. The feedback loop between social security variables and fertility suggests that abandoning fertility restrictions may not be as effective in helping to finance China’s intended pension reform, especially if children are an important source of old-age support. The sustainability of the pension system is particularly at risk in the event of a growth slowdown. The objective of pension reforms may also be incongruent with other reforms, such as financial liberalization and financial integration.
    Keywords: one-child policy; social security; demographics
    JEL: E21 H55 J11 J13
    Date: 2014–08
  2. By: Daniel K. Fetter; Lee M. Lockwood
    Abstract: Many major government programs transfer resources to older people and implicitly or explicitly tax their labor. In this paper, we shed new light on the labor supply effects of such programs by investigating the Old Age Assistance Program (OAA), a means-tested and state-administered pension program created by the Social Security Act of 1935. Using newly available Census data on the entire US population in 1940, we exploit the large differences in OAA programs across states to estimate the labor supply effects of OAA. Our estimates imply that OAA reduced the labor force participation rate among men aged 65-74 by 5.7 percentage points, nearly half of its 1930-40 decline. Estimating a structural model of labor supply, we find that the welfare costs to recipients of the high tax rates implicit in OAA's earnings test were quite small. Predictions based on our reduced-form estimates and our estimated model both suggest that Social Security could account for at least half of the large decline in late-life work from 1940 to 1960.
    JEL: H53 H55 I38 J26 N32 N42
    Date: 2016–03
  3. By: Christophe Daniel (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Anne Lavigne (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Mottet (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Jesus-Herell Nze Obame (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Bruno Séjourné (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Christian Tagne (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Using the "Echantillon Inter régimes de Retraités" (EIR) 2012 panel data, we calculate retirees' pension wealth at a macroeconomic level, including detailed results by type of pension scheme and by managing organism. In order to do this, we focus on direct pensions already perceived by retirees and to be obtained in the future, without taking into account current contributors' future retirement. We find that the overall pension wealth (past and future) is not very sensitive to the discount rate, but such is not the case if we concentrate on the future pension wealth. From this point of view, it must be noted that some of the organisms have a high proportion of pension still to be paid. Moreover, pension wealth measures of distribution lead to the conclusion that there are more inequalities in the private sector than in the public, particularly in the second pillar of the Pay-as-you-go system.
    Abstract: En nous appuyant sur l'enquête Echantillons Inter-régimes des retraités (EIR) de 2012, nous calculons l'équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraite (EPDR) au niveau macroéconomique, en présentant le détail par régime et par caisse. Nous raisonnons pour ce faire sur les pensions de droit direct déjà consommées ou à verser dans un système fermé, autrement dit qui ne tient pas compte des futurs retraités. Il apparaît que si l'EPDR global est peu sensible au taux d'actualisation, tel n'est pas le cas lorsqu'on se concentre sur l'EPDR à verser. Or, de ce point de vue, certaines caisses se caractérisent par un EPDR à verser proportionnellement important. Par ailleurs, les mesures de dispersion font apparaître de plus grandes inégalités dans le secteur privé, particulièrement dans le cadre des régimes complémentaires.
    Keywords: Retirement,Pension wealth,Retraite,Equivalent patrimonial
    Date: 2016–02
  4. By: Bertoni, Marco (University of Padova); Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Mazzarella, Gianluca (University of Padova)
    Abstract: By increasing the residual working horizon of employed individuals, pension reforms that raise minimum retirement age are likely to affect the returns to investments in health-promoting behaviours before retirement, with consequences for individual health. Using the exogenous variation in minimum retirement age induced by a sequence of Italian pension reforms during the 1990s and 2000s, we show that Italian males aged 40 to 49 reacted to the longer time to retirement by raising regular exercise and by reducing smoking and regular alcohol consumption. Dietary habits were also affected, with positive consequences on obesity and self-reported satisfaction with health.
    Keywords: retirement, working horizon, healthy behaviours, pension reforms
    JEL: H55 I12 J26
    Date: 2016–03
  5. By: Müller, Tobias; Shaikh, Mujaheed
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence on intra-household retirement externalities by assessing the causal effect of partner's retirement on own health behaviour in Europe. We identify partner's retirement effects by applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) framework using retirement eligibility as an exogenous instrument for partner's retirement status. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) we find that while partner's retirement increases own physical activity, it also increases smoking by up to 7 cigarettes a day and increases alcohol intake by 1-2 drinks per day. Furthermore, we find that physical activity increases only for individuals that are themselves retired pointing toward compensated effects that arise due to husband's and wife's retirement being complements. Similarly, an increase in alcohol intake is observed only if the individuals are themselves retired and an increase in smoking is only observed if the partner is a smoker suggesting mutual positive externalities and leisure complementarities.
    Keywords: Retirement Externalities, Health Behaviour, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design
    JEL: C26 I12 J26
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Zhi Da; Borja Larrain; Clemens Sialm; José Tessada
    Abstract: We document a novel channel through which coordinated noise trading exerts externalities on financial markets dominated by institutional investors. We exploit a unique set of events where Chilean pension fund investors followed an influential financial advisory firm that recommended frequent switches between equity and bond funds. The recommendations, which mostly followed short-term trends, generated large and coordinated fund flows. These flows resulted in substantial price pressure and increased volatility in financial markets. Pension funds increased cash holdings as a response. Our findings suggest that giving retirement savers unconstrained reallocation opportunities may exert negative externalities on financial markets.
    JEL: F32 G02 G11 G12 G14 G15 G18 G23 G28 H31 H55
    Date: 2016–04
  7. By: Michela Ponzo; Vincenzo Scoppa (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza, Università della Calabria)
    Abstract: We use a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to evaluate the impact of cost-sharing on the use of health services. In the Italian health system, individuals reaching age 65 and earning low incomes are given total exemption from cost-sharing for health services consumption. Since the probability of exemption changes discontinuously at age 65, we use a Fuzzy RDD in which the age threshold is used as an instrument for exemption. We find that prescription drug consumption, specialist visits and diagnostic checks remarkably increase with exemption. However, using several measures of health outcomes we do not find any change in individual health.
    Keywords: Health Insurance, Healthcare Demand, Cost-Sharing, Moral Hazard, Health Outcomes, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, Instrumental Variables
    JEL: I10 I13 I11 I18 C26
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Harris, Timothy; Yelowitz, Aaron
    Abstract: Premature death of a breadwinner can have devastating financial consequences on surviving dependents. This study investigates the role of life insurance in mitigating the long-run �financial consequences of spousal mortality. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we examine individuals whose spouses died during or soon after his or her peak earnings years. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that lump-sum life insurance payouts do not significantly influence spousal well-being.
    Keywords: Life Insurance, Poverty, Ageing
    JEL: D31 G22 I31 J32 J33 J38
    Date: 2016–03–27
  9. By: Milko Matijascic
    Abstract: Ao considerar as regras de custeio e benefícios na previdência brasileira e comparar com outros países, é possível afirmar que o debate público atual apresenta teor inexato. O debate em pauta ainda apresenta limites sob a ótica dos direitos sociais. Os países desenvolvidos possuem estruturas trabalhistas favoráveis para elevar o patamar de contribuintes, o que não ocorre nos demais países. Apesar disso, os gastos com idosos cresceram por toda a parte, pois o envelhecimento está em marcha e os segurados possuem poder de mobilização para conter os ímpetos reformistas mais radicais. As pensões por morte e as aposentadorias por invalidez seguem lógicas diferentes e perdem espaço no gasto público, segundo a experiência internacional. No caso de benefícios que se destinam às famílias em situação de vulnerabilidade, os gastos caíram, em geral, nos países desenvolvidos. Já na América Latina e, em menor medida, no BRICS (bloco econômico formado por Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), houve tendência à elevação dos gastos. Financingand eligibility rules in Brazilian social security, when compared to other countries are inserted on a national debate that presents clear limitations when the focus is turns to social rights. According to the international experience, there are important differences among developed countries and the other ones. Developed countries present a situation based on high contribution rates to social security and such a scenario is not similar in Latin American or BRICS’ countries. To increase coverage there is a need to consolidate universal rights and social assistance initiatives based on cash transfers. Expenditures with old age benefits are growing since the insured are ageing and resist to radical reforms. Nevertheless, survivor and incapacity benefits are presenting decreasing costs. The main difference among developed countries and the other ones are centered in the growing importance focused on social benefits for families, since the first group seems to reduce spending and the other one is raising it.
    Date: 2016–04
  10. By: Bruno De Conti
    Abstract: Os fundos brasileiros de previdência complementar detêm, em conjunto, uma carteira consolidada de investimentos que já supera R$ 1 trilhão. Esse volume de recursos justifica, portanto, pesquisas que se debrucem sobre os referidos fundos e sobre a administração de suas carteiras. Dentro desse esforço, este trabalho tem como principal objetivo a análise das formas de alocação do estoque de riqueza gerido por esses fundos. Como objetivo associado, pretende-se avaliar as possibilidades de que essa enorme massa de recursos venha a constituir-se como funding para o financiamento de longo prazo no Brasil. Para tanto, sugere-se uma segmentação analítica dos distintos fundos de previdência complementar, que revela que aqueles com maior potencial para provimento desse funding são os fundos fechados, de grande porte e patrocinados por empresas públicas. Brazilian pension funds hold together a portfolio that exceeds R$ 1 trillion. This volume of resources justifies researches that try to understand the management of these portfolios. This paper aims therefore to analyze the allocation of the wealth managed by these funds. As an associated goal, the paper aims to evaluate the possibilities of this huge mass of resources to eventually constitute a funding for the long-term financing in Brazil. With these purposes, the paper suggests an analytical segmentation of the different kinds of pension funds, which shows that those with the greatest potential to provide this funding are the closed, large and public companies funds.
    Date: 2016–02
  11. By: Holzmann, Robert (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: This policy paper summarizes four corridor studies on bilateral social security agreements (BSSAs) between four EU Member and two non-Member States, draws conclusions on their results, and offers recommendations. BSSAs between migrant-sending and migrant-receiving countries are seen as the most important instrument to establish portability of social security benefits for internationally mobile workers. Yet only about 23 percent of international migrants profit from BSSAs and their functioning has been little analyzed and even less assessed. The four corridors studied (Austria-Turkey, Germany-Turkey, Belgium-Morocco, and France-Morocco) were selected to allow for comparison of both similarities and differences in experiences. The evaluation of these corridors' BSSAs was undertaken against a methodological framework and three selected criteria: fairness for individuals, fiscal fairness for countries, and bureaucratic effectiveness for countries and migrant workers. The results suggest that the investigated BSSAs work and overall deliver reasonably well on individual fairness. The results on fiscal fairness are clouded by conceptual and empirical gaps. Bureaucratic effectiveness would profit from ICT-based exchanges on both corridors once available.
    Keywords: acquired rights, labor mobility, migration corridor, administration, evaluation
    JEL: D69 H55 I19 J62
    Date: 2016–04
  12. By: Shusaku Sasaki; Mika Akesaka; Hirofumi Kurokawa; Fumio Ohtake
    Abstract: We show evidence that receiving Japan’s Akutagawa and Naoki Prizes for literature has positive and negative effects on their recipients’ longevity. Using a dataset covering both awards, we show that recipients of the Akutagawa Prize for rising novelists exhibit lower mortality than fellow nominees. The increase of longevity is estimated at 2.4 years. Recipients of the Naoki Prize for established novelists exhibit higher mortality than fellow nominees, and the decreased longevity is 5.1 years. These results indicate positive and negative causal effects from social status to longevity, and we identify and isolate those effects. In doing so, this study clarifies why earlier studies show conflicting relationships between receiving awards and the recipients’ longevity.
    Date: 2016–04

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