nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2016‒04‒09
twenty-one papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Non-Contributory Pensions Number-Gender Effects on Poverty and Household Decisions By Miguel Ángel Borrella Mas; Mariano Bosch Mossi; Marcello Sartarelli
  2. Healthcare expenditures growth: the red herring of demographic ageing? By Marianne Tenand
  3. How Does Maternal Pension Wealth Affect Family Old-Age Savings in Germany? By Andreas Thiemann
  4. Untersuchung zum Zusammenhang zwischen Heimtierbesitz und menschlicher Gesundheit bei älteren Personen in Deutschland By Marie S. C. Böhm; Simone Freitag
  5. Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism By Carlos Viana de Carvalho; Andrea Ferrero; Fernanda Necchio
  6. Life-Cycle Saving, Bequests, and the Role of Population in R&D-based Growth By Bharat Diwakar; Gilad Sorek
  7. Use It or Lose It: Irish Evidence By Mosca, Irene; Wright, Robert E.
  8. Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: implications for an ageing population By Daniel Howdon; Nigel Rice
  9. Aging, international capital flows and long-run convergence By Frederic Ganon; Gilles Le Garrec; Vincent Touzé
  10. Who bears the cost of workers' health-related presenteeism and absenteeism By Atsuko Tanaka
  11. La réforme des retraites de 1993 en France : quel impact sur l’équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraite ? By Christophe Daniel; Anne Lavigne; Stéphane Mottet; Jesus-Herell Nze Obame; Bruno Séjourné; Christian Tagne
  12. The commitment value of funding pensions By Jean-Denis Garon
  13. Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century By Anne Case; Angua Deaton
  14. Life Insurance Holdings and Well-Being of Surviving Spouses By Harris, Timothy; Yelowitz, Aaron
  15. Self-Enforcing Family Rules, Marriage and the (non)Neutrality of Public Intervention By Alessandro Cigno; Mizuki Komura; Annalisa Luporini
  16. Incidence, Optimal Use and Rationale of Place-Based Job Creation Programs By Sachiko Kazekami
  18. Use It Too Much and Lose It? The Effect of Working Hours on Cognitive Ability By Shinya Kajitani; Colin McKenzie; Kei Sakata
  19. Does independent needs assessment limit supply-side moral hazard in long-term care? By Rudy Douven; Pieter Bakx; Frederik T. Schut
  20. State Savings Initiatives: Lessons from California and Connecticut By Anek Belbase; Alicia H. Munnell; Nari Rhee; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
  21. ACCES A L'EMPLOI SELON L'AGE ET LE GENRE : LES RESULTATS D'UNE EXPERIENCE CONTROLEE By Laetitia Challe; Florent Fremigacci; François Langot; Yannick L'Horty; Loïc Du Parquet; Pascale Petit

  1. By: Miguel Ángel Borrella Mas (Dpto. Fundamentos del Análisis Económico); Mariano Bosch Mossi (Universidad de Alicante); Marcello Sartarelli (Dpto. Fundamentos del Análisis Económico)
    Abstract: Non-contributory pensions, designed to reduce old-age poverty particularly in countries with low contributory coverage, may induce a variety of household behavioural responses. This paper tests whether they vary with beneficiaries number and gender in Bolivia, one of the countries with the lowest contributory coverage worldwide. Taking advantage of a discontinuity in eligibility at age 60 in the Renta Dignidad pension, we estimate these effects by using a bi-dimensional regression discontinuity design, with spouses' age as forcing variables. We find that, despite increasing income, the impact on poverty is mixed and not significant. Although potentially puzzling, this is rationalised by household responses. When receiving two pensions, household size increases due to beneficiaries' adult children working in the household and to grandchildren. In addition, female labour supply decreases weakly. When receiving one, instead, transfers to other households increase only if the beneficiary is male. Our results suggest that variation in beneficiaries number and gender plays a relevant role in explaining pension positive spillovers to households with no elderly.
    Keywords: Consumption, labour supply, living arrangements, poverty, regression discontinuity, Renta Dignidad, social pension
    JEL: D13 H2 J22 J26
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: Marianne Tenand (ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: Demographic ageing is often deemed responsible for the massive increase in health expenditures experienced by developed countries. As the elderly consume more medical care than the rest of the population, how could the increase in the share of the 60 + not lead to a marked expansion of healthcare public and private budgets? Despite its apparent logics, such reasoning is fallacious: it ignores that medical care consumption depends on many factors beyond age, which have tremendously evolved in the last decades and may change again in the future. Based on French stylized facts, this article provides an overview of the international literature that aimed at disentangling the respective roles of population ageing and of the non-demographic factors in explaining the dynamics of health expenditures. Paradoxically, technical medical progress has been a major contributor to the increase of healthcare spending. Results from economics research lead to qualify the impact of demographic trends and call for more attention to the public policies decisions that shape healthcare systems.
    Abstract: Alors que les efforts de stabilisation des dépenses publiques se pour-suivent dans l'Union européenne, les regards se tournent vers les ressources financières consacrées à la santé, lesquelles représentent en moyenne 9 % du produit intérieur brut (PIB) dans les pays de l'OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques) [1]. Largement socialisées en Europe, les dépenses de santé y ont crû continuellement depuis 1960 1 , beaucoup plus rapidement que le revenu national. Or, dès les années 1980, des travaux académiques, relayés par les organismes internationaux, ont prédit que cette hausse était appelée à s'amplifier avec l'accélération du vieillissement démo-graphique [2]. S'appuyant sur des travaux de synthèse existants [3, 4], cet article propose un tour d'horizon de la littérature qui a depuis cherché à isoler et à quantifier l'impact du vieillissement de la population sur la dynamique des dépenses de santé. Si les résultats laissent penser que la hausse devrait se poursuivre à l'avenir, ils permettent également de mettre à distance les discours alarmistes faisant du « papy boom » le synonyme d'une explosion des dépenses de santé. Le vieillissement démographique apparaît comme un facteur secondaire au regard du rôle joué par le progrès technique et les choix politiques 1 Si on fait abstraction de la baisse enregistrée en 2010, consécutivement à la crise économique.
    Keywords: Ageing population,Health Care Expenditure,Vieillissement démographique,Dépenses de santé
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Andreas Thiemann
    Abstract: This paper examines how families adjust their private old-age savings in response to a change in individual pension wealth. The regression discontinuity approach exploits two expansions of the child care pension benefit, in 1992 and in 1999, as natural experiments. The empirical analysis is based on three waves of the Survey of Income and Expenditure (EVS): 1998, 2003 and 2008. All results indicate that families do not adjust their private old-age savings in response to the increase in their pension wealth. From a political point of view, this suggests that the increase in individual pension wealth does not crowd-out old-age private savings. Hence, child care pension benefits increase a mother's old-age income without causing negative savings effects.
    Keywords: Old-age savings, pension wealth, regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D14 E21 H55
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Marie S. C. Böhm; Simone Freitag
    Abstract: Since the 1980s researchers are investigating the beneficial effects of pets on human health. The current state of research is characterized by heterogeneity of results, rarity of longitudinal analysis, few studies with German population and search for moderators and mediators in order to explain the possible association. The present study aims at examining the (possibly differential) impact of dogs and cats primarily on their owner’s self-rated physical and mental health both, cross-sectional and longitudinal, using a German sample of elderly as in particular older people may benefit from pet ownership. In addition to demographic characteristics, the owner’s loneliness and human social support are investigated cross-sectional for being potential mediators. Socioeconomic data is provided by the Berliner Altersstudie II. The total sample comprises 1 286 people aged 60 years or older, who completed the survey questionnaire 2012 and 2014. Cross-sectional results predominantly show inferior physical and mental health of pet owners compared to nonowners, even if considering the (non-) owner’s demographic characteristics. Merely the cat owner’s disadvantages in health can be explained by the owner’s feeling of loneliness, whereas no explanatory construct can be found accounting for dog ownership in this study. However, longitudinal results most notably reveal gains in mental health after pet, especially dog acquisition compared to permanent non-ownership, whilst permanent pet ownership is not accompanied with (any more) advantages in health and loss of a cat seems to provide gains in physical health. The present study confirms the importance of longitudinal analysis, indicates differences between cat and dog ownership and spotlights the question of short or long term effects as well as possible limits of the improvement of the elderly pet owner’s health.
    Keywords: Heimtierbesitz, Psychische und Physische Gesundheit, Demografie, Einsamkeit, Soziale Netzwerke und Unterstützung
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Carlos Viana de Carvalho (Department of Economics PUC-Rio); Andrea Ferrero (University of Oxford); Fernanda Necchio (FRB San Francisco)
    Abstract: The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity - or expectations thereof - puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital. On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio (the fraction of retirees to workers). Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect lowers the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up. We calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success.
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Bharat Diwakar; Gilad Sorek
    Abstract: This study shows how the two alternative saving motives, life-cycle consumption smoothing and parental bequests, determine the relation between population growth and R&D-based economic growth, i.e. the sign of the "weak scale-effect". We take a textbook R&D-based growth model of infinitely living agents with no weak-scale effect, and analyze it in an Overlapping Generations framework - with and without bequest saving-motive. We show how the different saving motives determine the relation between population growth and per-capita income growth, which proves to be ambiguous in general, and may also be non-monotonic. Hence, we conclude that the counterfactual weak-scale effect that is present in the second and third generations of R&D-based growth models of infinitely-living agents depends on their specific demographic structure, and thus is not inherent to R&D-based growth theory itself.
    Keywords: R&D-based Growth, Weak Scale Effect, Overlapping Generations
    JEL: O31 O40
    Date: 2016–03
  7. By: Mosca, Irene (Trinity College Dublin); Wright, Robert E. (University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: A small but growing body of research suggests that retirement and cognitive decline are related. In fact, some have argued that retirement causes cognitive decline. The aim of this paper is to add to this literature using data of older women from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Ordinary least square (OLS) regressions show a significant negative association between retirement and cognitive functioning. These estimates are based on the assumption that retirement is exogenous. As retirement is potentially endogenous with respect to cognition, instrumental variable (IV) methods are also used. The instrument employed is the abolition of the so-called "Marriage Bar". In simple terms, the Marriage Bar was the requirement that women leave paid employment on getting married. It was established in the 1930s and removed in the 1970s. When IV estimations are used, the effect of retirement on cognition is negative but statistically insignificant. Differences between OLS and IV estimates are compared with a standard test. OLS estimates are preferred as the null hypothesis of exogeneity of retirement cannot be rejected at conventional statistical levels.
    Keywords: cognition, ageing, retirement
    JEL: J14 J26
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Daniel Howdon (Centre for Health Economics and Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, UK.); Nigel Rice (Centre for Health Economics and Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, UK.)
    Abstract: This paper uses Hospital Episode Statistics, English administrative data, to investigate the growth in admitted patient health care expenditures and the implications of an ageing population. We use two samples of around 40,000 individuals who a) used inpatient health care in the financial year 2005/06 and died by 2011/12 and b) died in 2011/12 and had some hospital utilisation since 2005/06. We use a panel structure to follow individuals over seven years of this administrative data, containing estimates of inpatient health care expenditures (HCE), information regarding individuals’ age, time-to-death (TTD), morbidities at the time of an admission, as well as the hospital provider, year and season of admission. We show that HCE if principally determined by proximity to death rather than age, and that proximity to death is itself a proxy for morbidity.
    Keywords: health care expenditures, ageing, time-to-death, morbidity
    JEL: H51 J11 I19
    Date: 2015–01
  9. By: Frederic Ganon (University of Le Havre - EDEHN); Gilles Le Garrec (OFCE Sciences PO); Vincent Touzé (OFCE, Sciences Po)
    Abstract: This paper analyses how the economic, demographic and institutional differences between two regions -one developed and called the North, the other emerging and called the South- drive the international capital flows and explain the world economic equilibrium. To this end, we develop a simple two-period OLG model. We compare closed-economy and open-economy equilibria. We consider that openness facilitates convergence of South’s characteristics towards North’s. We examine successively the consequences of a technological catching-up, a demographic transition and an institutional convergence of pension schemes. We determine the analytical solution of the dynamics of the world interest rate and deduce the evolution of the current accounts. These analytical results are completed by numerical simulations. They show that the technological catching-up alone leads to a welfare loss for the North in reason of capital flows towards the South. If we add to this first change a demographic transition, the capital demand is reduced in the South whereas its saving increases in reason of a higher life expectancy. These two effects contribute to reduce the capital flows from the North to the South. Finally, an institutional convergence of the two pension schemes reduces the South’s saving rate which increases the capital flow from the North to the South.
    Keywords: International Capital flows, OLG, Economic convergence, demographic transition
    JEL: D91 F40 J10 O33
    Date: 2016–03
  10. By: Atsuko Tanaka (University of Calgary)
    Abstract: With an aging population and a rising prevalence of chronic conditions in the United States (U.S.), it is important to understand what happens when workers suffer unanticipated reductions in productivity. This paper investigates who pays for the loss caused by labor productivity reductions---a phenomenon often described as “presenteeism†or “absenteeism†---due to a stroke. Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, I find that, in the case of older workers, the employer often pays through higher costs of labor, rather than the worker through lower wages, because wages and earnings remain at the level before the worker had a stroke despite reduced hours. The existence of such rigidity in the employment contract translates to an increase in calculated hourly wages. Thus, this study warns that wages, earnings, or salaries cannot be clearly interpreted as accurate values of the marginal product of labor.
    Date: 2016–03–25
  11. By: Christophe Daniel (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Anne Lavigne (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Mottet (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Jesus-Herell Nze Obame (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Bruno Séjourné (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Christian Tagne (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Depuis 1993, la France a enregistré plusieurs réformes de son système de retraites, visant avant tout à en assurer la soutenabilité. Cette contribution a pour objectif d’évaluer l’impact de la réforme de 1993 sur l’équivalent patrimonial des droits individuels à la retraite (EPDR), c'est-à-dire la somme actuarielle probable des pensions à recevoir, de la date de liquidation des droits jusqu’au décès. Plus précisément, nous mesurons l’impact de cette réforme sur l’EPDR des mono-pensionnés du régime général, à l’aide des données de l’Echantillon Interrégimes de Retraités 2008. Parmi les mesures phares de la réforme de 1993 figure l’augmentation progressive de la durée de cotisation nécessaire pour obtenir une retraite à taux plein au régime général. Cette augmentation est susceptible d’engendrer deux effets opposés : un effet de report de l’âge de liquidation pour conserver un EPDR adéquat pour ses vieux jours (voire l’augmenter) ou un effet de décote, si l’assuré-e ne souhaite, ou ne peut, pas prolonger son activité et subit donc une décote sur sa pension, et partant sur son EPDR. Pour tester les effets nets de la réforme de 1993 sur l’EPDR, nous procédons à des estimations économétriques en différences premières et en doubles différences, ainsi qu’à des estimations par quantiles pour mesurer les impacts le long de la distribution de l’EPDR. Nos estimations montrent des résultats différents selon que les individus partent avant ou après 2004, date d’entrée en vigueur de la réforme. Ainsi, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, un départ en retraite avant 2004 plutôt que postérieurement, augmente l’EPDR des retraités concernés. Toutefois, l’interaction avec les autres variables nuance cette conclusion. D’une part, reporter son départ en retraite réduit l’EPDR moyen d’environ 20% : le report permet d’accumuler des droits supplémentaires, mais sur une période réduite. D’autre part, l’effet de la décote est négatif, mais son intensité est réduite quand les retraités reportent leur départ. En outre, comme les générations 1934-1943 ont subi conjointement les réformes de 1993 et 2003, nos estimations en double différence permettent d’isoler l’effet « pur » de la réforme de 1993 : lorsque les affiliés ont subi une décote, sans avoir reporté leur départ en retraite pour l’atténuer, la liquidation des droits aux conditions de 2003 par rapport aux conditions de 1993 est la plus défavorable. Enfin, les estimations par quantiles montrent que ces effets s’intensifient dans la première moitié de la distribution, et s’atténuent au-delà.
    Keywords: Retraite, réforme, équivalent patrimonial
    Date: 2016–01
  12. By: Jean-Denis Garon
    Abstract: This paper studies how funding public pensions can improve policy outcomes when short-sighted governments cannot commit. We focus on sustainable plans, where op-timal nonlinear pensions are not reneged on by sequential governments. Funding pen-sions is a commitment mechanism. It implies lower contributions than does the second best policy, which reduces temptation to over-redistribute later and to misuse revealed private information. Funding may be preferable even if the population growth rate is higher than the rate of return on assets. Second best optimal policies are also more likely to be renegotiation proof under fully funded pensions.
    Keywords: Pensions, Commitment, Redistribution, Funding
    JEL: H55 H31
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Anne Case (Princeton University); Angua Deaton (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed decades of progress in mortality and was unique to the United States; no other rich country saw a similar turnaround. The midlife mortality reversal was confined to white non-Hispanics; black non-Hispanics and Hispanics at midlife, and those aged 65 and above in every racial and ethnic group, continued to see mortality rates fall. This increase for whites was largely accounted for by increasing death rates from drug and alcohol poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis. Although all education groups saw increases in mortality from suicide and poisonings, and an overall increase in external cause mortality, those with less education saw the most marked increases. Rising midlife mortality rates of white non-Hispanics were paralleled by increases in midlife morbidity. Self-reported declines in health, mental health, and ability to conduct activities of daily living, and increases in chronic pain and inability to work, as well as clinically measured deteriorations in liver function, all point to growing distress in this population. We comment on potential economic causes and consequences of this deterioration.
    Date: 2015–09
  14. By: Harris, Timothy; Yelowitz, Aaron
    Abstract: Premature death of a breadwinner can have devastating financial consequences on surviving dependents. This study investigates the role of life insurance in mitigating the long-run �financial consequences of spousal mortality. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we examine individuals whose spouses died during or soon after his or her peak earnings years. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that lump-sum life insurance payouts do not significantly influence spousal well-being.
    Keywords: Life Insurance, Poverty, Ageing
    JEL: D31 G22 I31 J32 J33 J38
    Date: 2016–03–27
  15. By: Alessandro Cigno; Mizuki Komura; Annalisa Luporini
    Abstract: We demonstrate the existence of self-enforcing, renegotiation-proof family rules requiring adults to provide attention for their elderly parents in a model where individuals marry, and Nash-bargain the allocation of domestic resources with their partners. We show that public policy is neutralized by private action in some cases, but not in general.
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Sachiko Kazekami (Chukyo University)
    Abstract: First, this paper empirically evaluates the incidence of the Japanese place-based job creation program, which has been rarely studied in Japan. The program increases employment, especially in the agricultural, retail trade and service sectors that most treated cities promote. Second, this paper explores the cities that the program most affects. Those with large aging populations and those with small working age population decrease the effects of the program. Third, this paper assesses the rationale of this program and does not observe a strong reduction in sales, workers or establishments in the neighboring cities of the treated city.
    Keywords: Place-based policy, job creation, unemployment, rationale, externality effect
    JEL: J23 J68 R23 H22 H23
    Date: 2016–03
  17. By: Michela Ponzo; Vincenzo Scoppa (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza, Università della Calabria)
    Abstract: We use a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to evaluate the impact of cost-sharing on the use of health services. In the Italian health system, individuals reaching age 65 and earning low incomes are given total exemption from cost-sharing for health services consumption. Since the probability of exemption changes discontinuously at age 65, we use a Fuzzy RDD in which the age threshold is used as an instrument for exemption. We find that prescription drug consumption, specialist visits and diagnostic checks remarkably increase with exemption. However, using several measures of health outcomes we do not find any change in individual health.
    Keywords: Health Insurance, Healthcare Demand, Cost-Sharing, Moral Hazard, Health Outcomes, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, Instrumental Variables
    JEL: I10 I13 I11 I18 C26
    Date: 2016–03
  18. By: Shinya Kajitani (Faculty of Economics, Meisei University; and Melbuorne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research); Colin McKenzie (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Kei Sakata (Faculty of Economics, Ritsumeikan University)
    Abstract: Using data from Wave 12 of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we examine the impact of working hours on the cognitive ability of people living in Australia aged 40 years and older. Three measures of cognitive ability are employed: the Backward Digit Span; the Symbol Digits Modalities; and a 25-item version of the National Adult Reading Test. In order to capture the potential non-linear dependence of cognitive ability on working hours, the model for cognitive ability includes working hours and its square. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the decision of how many hours to work by using the instrumental variable estimation technique. Our findings show that there is a non-linearity in the effect of working hours on cognitive functioning. For working hours up to around 25 hours a week, an increase in working hours has a positive impact on cognitive functioning. However, when working hours exceed 25 hours per week, an increase in working hours has a negative impact on cognition. Interestingly, there is no statistical difference in the effects of working hours on cognitive functioning between men and women. Classification-I10, J22, J26
    Keywords: Cognitive ability, endogeneity, retirement, working hours
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Rudy Douven; Pieter Bakx; Frederik T. Schut
    Abstract: The decision about the amount and type of care that a patient needs may be entrusted to health care providers or be delegated to an independent assessor. An independent assessment limits the scope for supply-side moral hazard and occurs frequently in long-term care (LTC), e.g. in the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, and Japan. The characteristics of LTC, the potential lack of incentives for efficient use for consumers, providers and third-party payers, and the absence of other restrictions of supply and demand, suggest that there may be room for excessive LTC use in the Netherlands, so there might be a case for independent needs assessment. Unique individual level data about LTC-eligibility decisions and use show that consumers make use of the indicated type of care but that for virtually all subgroups in the population there is considerable non-take-up, meaning that the independent assessment does not limit the amount of care that patients use. This finding suggests that the independent needs assessment may only have a small effect on preventing supply-side moral hazard in LTC.
    JEL: H51 I11 I13 I18 L13 L33
    Date: 2016–03
  20. By: Anek Belbase; Alicia H. Munnell; Nari Rhee; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
    Abstract: At any given moment, about half of private sector workers are not covered by any employer-sponsored retirement plan. To close this coverage gap, 18 states are considering retirement savings initiatives. These efforts have been spurred by the lack of action at the federal level – which would be preferable to a patch­work of state plans – and the apparent inability of ex­isting employer-sponsored plans to solve the problem. But the state initiatives are still at an early stage. To date, just two states – California and Connecticut – have completed “feasibility studies” to determine whether their initiatives can generate sufficient ac­count balances and employer support to be success­ful. Both states propose a mandate on employers to either set up a retirement plan already available in the market or join a state program of individual retire­ment accounts with automatic enrollment (“auto-IRAs”). This brief focuses on lessons learned from these two states to inform other states considering similar efforts. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section describes the California and Connecticut initiatives. The second section presents three lessons learned from their feasibility studies: 1) high rates of employee participation can be expected; 2) employers are split in their support, but they will not discourage participation by employees; and 3) program design and implementation are critical. The final section concludes that while the work done by California and Connecticut suggests a promising outlook for auto-IRAs, success will depend on how well the programs are implemented.
    Date: 2016–03
  21. By: Laetitia Challe (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florent Fremigacci (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EconomiX - UP10 - Université Paris 10, Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Langot (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Université du Maine); Yannick L'Horty (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Loïc Du Parquet (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Université du Maine); Pascale Petit (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Plusieurs hypothèses concurrentes ont été avancées pour rendre compte de la persistance du sousemploi des personnes de plus de cinquante ans en France. Dans cette étude, nous nous intéressons à la demande de travail. Nous construisons et nous mettons en œuvre un protocole expérimental permettant de tester les quatre hypothèses les plus fréquemment évoquées : la distance à la retraite inobservable par le recruteur ; l’obsolescence supposée des compétences dans un contexte de chocs technologiques répétés ; l’inaptitude supposée à la reconversion professionnelle, éventuellement différenciée selon le sexe ; une discrimination pure à l’encontre des seniors, du fait de normes sociales. Pour tester chacune de ces hypothèses, nous avons mené à bien quatre campagnes de testing distinctes permettant de les évaluer. Entre mi-janvier et mi-août 2015, nous avons envoyé un total de 6 361 candidatures fictives réparties sur 7 professions et 28 profils. L’étude consiste en une exploitation statistique des résultats de ces testings. Nos résultats indiquent qu’il faut nécessairement combiner plusieurs hypothèses pour rendre compte du sous-emploi des seniors en France. Les seniors sont à la fois victimes de l’obsolescence de leur capital humain et de discriminations à l’embauche en raison de l’âge, ce qui pénalise particulièrement les hommes dans leur reconversion professionnelle. L’explication classique par la distance à la retraite est la seule à ne pas être statistiquement validée.
    Keywords: accès à l’emploi, testing,Emploi des seniors
    Date: 2015–11

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