nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2016‒01‒18
three papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Aging, Taxes and Pensions in Switzerland By Keuschnigg, Christian
  2. Población y desarrollo en el Pacífico colombiano By Julio E. Romero-Prieto
  3. Concentration of Population in Tokyo: A Survey By Kenji Umetani; Tadashi Yokoyama

  1. By: Keuschnigg, Christian
    Abstract: The gains in life expectancy are expected to double the dependency ratio and increase population by 10% in Switzerland until 2050. To quantify the effects on pensions, taxes and social contributions, we use an overlapping generations model with five margins of labor supply: labor market participation, hours worked, job search, retirement, and on-the-job training. A passive fiscal strategy would be very costly. A comprehensive reform, including an increase in the effective retirement age to 68 years, may limit the tax increases to 4 percentage points of value added tax and reduce the decline of per capita income to less than 6%.
    Keywords: Aging, pensions, taxation, labor market effects, growth
    JEL: D58 D91 H55 J26 J64
    Date: 2016–01
  2. By: Julio E. Romero-Prieto
    Abstract: En este documento se analiza el cambio demográfico de la región del Pacífico usando ocho censos, seis encuestas demográficas y registros vitales. Hasta cierto punto, los procesos de población han sido similares en las regiones Caribe y el Pacífico. Sin embargo, se encontraron diferencias notables en comparación con Bogotá y el resto del país. A pesar de una reducción sistemática en la razón de dependencia, la dependencia económica efectiva es superior a otras regiones de Colombia, siendo uno de los límites al desarrollo económico de las regiones periféricas. Una estimación retrospectiva de la mortalidad en la primera infancia en el Pacífico muestra una disminución sustancial en las últimas décadas, pero la diferencia con el resto del país representa la penalidad de nacer y vivir en las regiones menos desarrolladas de Colombia. Estimaciones indirectas de la mortalidad adulta y la esperanza de vida en edades productivas conducen a la misma conclusión. ******ABSTRACT: Demographic change of the Pacific region is analyzed using eight censuses, six demographic surveys, and vital registrations. To some extent, population processes have been similar in the Caribbean and the Pacific regions; however, salient differences were found in comparison to Bogotá and the rest of the country. Despite a systematic reduction on age dependency ratios, the effective dependency ratio remains higher than other Colombian regions, being one of the limits to the economic development of peripheral regions. A retrospective estimation of the under-5 mortality in the Pacific shows a substantial decline within the past few decades, but the gap to the rest of the country represents the negative penalty of being born and living in the less developed regions of Colombia. Indirect estimations of the adult mortality and the life expectancy at working ages lead to the same conclusion.
    Keywords: Pacífico colombiano, cambio demográfico, estimación demográfica, mortalidad, esperanza de vida, censos de Colombia, ENDS
    JEL: J11 J19 R11
    Date: 2015–12–22
  3. By: Kenji Umetani (Cabinet Office, ESRI); Tadashi Yokoyama (Cabinet Office)
    Abstract: The mono-polar concentration of population in Tokyo has been intensifying steadily in Japan since the mid-1990s. This demographic movement stands in sharp contrast to the tri-polar (Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya) demographic movement in the high growth era before the oil crisis of the early 1970s. Mono-polar in-migration reflects the change in industrial structure after the rapid yen appreciation and the two decades of stagnation caused by the bubble burst in an atmosphere of demographic aging and declining birth rate. One noteworthy recent feature of the population inflow into Tokyo is the increasing inflow of young females with post-secondary education, leading to even gloomier economic and social prospects in most outlying regions. This economic externality should be dealt with by means of well-designed policies which, benefitting from the experience of events several decades ago, avoid throttling the benefits of the market mechanism.
    Date: 2015–12

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