nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2015‒05‒09
twelve papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It By Alicia H. Munnell
  2. Análisis del impacto distributivo del sistema previsional argentino: estudio del aumento de la cobertura By Calabria, Alejandro A.; Rottenschweiler, Sergio
  3. Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective By Mitsuru Katagiri; Hideki Konishi; Kozo Ueda
  4. Unemployment Accounts - A Finnish Application By Määttänen, Niku; Salminen, Tomi
  5. The effects of ageing and urbanization on China's future population and labor force By Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart
  6. Programas sociales en Argentina y bienestar: Impacto de la moratoria previsional y de la AUH By D Elia, Vanesa
  7. Methodological Approach of a Multiple State Actuarial Model for the Married - Widower case for the assessment of retirement and widowhood pensions By Estefanía Alaminos; Mercedes Ayuso
  8. Aging and urban house prices By Hiller, Norbert; Lerbs, Oliver W.
  9. Why Demotion of Older Workers is a No-Go Area for Managers By van Dalen, H.P.; Henkens, K.
  10. Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions By Helena Chuliá; Montserrat Guillén; Jorge M. Uribe
  11. Wealth formation of Dutch households: a policy assessment By Jante Parlevliet; Thomas Kooiman
  12. Enhancing Translational Research and Clinical Development for Alzheimer's Disease and other Dementias By OECD

  1. By: Alicia H. Munnell
    Abstract: The brief’s key findings are: *Today’s workers face a brewing retirement crisis due to: *a growing need for income driven by longer lifespans, rising health costs, and low interest rates; and *reduced support from Social Security and defined benefit pension plans. *Fortunately, the solutions are at hand: *Policymakers should shore up Social Security with more revenue, make 401(k)s fully automatic, and ensure everyone has access to a savings plan. *Individuals should work longer – to age 70 if possible – and consider tapping their home equity in retirement to support day-to-day needs. *Any delay in responding to the challenge will only make adjustments more painful down the road.
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Calabria, Alejandro A.; Rottenschweiler, Sergio
    Abstract: The design of an adequate pension system is a very complex because it must contemplate multiple objectives. Must be inclusive, reduce poverty in old age, providing appropriate incentives in the labor market, increasing the aggregate savings of the economy, the ability to smooth consumption between active and passive stage and be financially sustainable. In recent years there have been significant reforms in the Argentine pension system. Undoubtedly, the most important one was the implementation of various moratoriums that allowed significantly increase in the coverage rate. This working paper's main objective is a comprehensive analysis of the distributional impact of the pension moratorium and study the actual design of the pension system so as to detect future problems and opportunities for improvement that can be implemented in the medium term.
    Keywords: Sistema previsional; tasa de cobertura; distribución de ingresos; políticas públicas; Argentina.
    JEL: H20 H53 H55
    Date: 2015–04–29
  3. By: Mitsuru Katagiri (Bank of Japan); Hideki Konishi (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Kozo Ueda (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually.
    Keywords: Fiscal theory of the price level, Politico-economic equilibrium
    JEL: D72 E30 E62 E63 H60
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Määttänen, Niku; Salminen, Tomi
    Abstract: We consider a reform that would replace the current Finnish unemployment insurance (UI) scheme with individual unemployment accounts. The reform would provide additional pensions for individuals who end up with a positive account balance at retirement age without restricting unemployment benefits relative to the current system. At the same time, the reform is likely to improve labour supply incentives, at least for some individuals. The question is whether such a reform would be self-financing. The fiscal effects of the reform depend crucially on the distribution of lifetime unemployment and the extent to which the reform would increase labour supply. We use a micro panel comprising a representative sample of 1/3 of the Finnish population and covering the period 1988-2010 to estimate the distribution of lifetime unemployment and to simulate how the unemployment accounts would evolve. We assume that the reform improves labour supply incentives only via the extensive margin and find that it is likely to be self-financing if the labour supply elasticity at the extensive margin is about 0.16 or higher. We also experiment with integrating UI with the pension system.
    Keywords: unemployment insurance, unemployment accounts, lifetime unemployment
    JEL: H53 H55 J65
  5. By: Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart (Groningen University)
    Date: 2015
  6. By: D Elia, Vanesa
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact on the welfare of the most important social programs implemented in the last decade in Argentina: the Inclusion Pension Plan and the Universal Child Allowance (UCA), and discusses which of these redistributive instruments presents the highest aggregate utility. To do this, non-experimental econometric techniques combined with various welfare indicators are used. We find that both programs increased the welfare of beneficiary households, and that the impact of the UCA exceeds in all cases that of the Inclusion Pension Plan. Likewise, it is evidenced a positive effect on general welfare.
    Keywords: evaluación de impacto, bienestar, moratoria previsional, asignación universal por hijo, Argentina
    JEL: C21 H43 I38
    Date: 2015–04–28
  7. By: Estefanía Alaminos (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Mercedes Ayuso (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: In this document we present the methodological approach for a Multiple State Actuarial Model in the marital status context. We obtain transition probabilities between married – widower statuses for an individual aged x. Such probabilities are used in the assessment of the expected value for payments related to concurrence of pensions for people aged over 64.
    Keywords: Marital Status, transition probabilities, Markov Chains, expected individual cost, pensions.
    Date: 2015–04
  8. By: Hiller, Norbert; Lerbs, Oliver W.
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city's population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with housing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012. Employing a panel error correction framework that accounts for the evolution of city income and other controls, we find that urban house prices perform stronger in cities that grow or age less rapidly. A combination of the empirical estimates with current population projections suggests that population aging will exert considerable downward pressure on urban house prices in upcoming years.
    Keywords: Urban house prices,demographic change,Germany
    JEL: G12 J11 R31
    Date: 2015
  9. By: van Dalen, H.P. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Henkens, K.
    Abstract: Demotion – a reduction of an employee’s rank and salary - is often mentioned by managers and policy makers as a measure to increase the employability of older workers, but in practice demotion is rarely applied. This paper takes a fresh look at the question of demotion by first employing a survey among European employers and second the use of a survey and a vignette study among managers in the Netherlands (N = 355). The European survey shows that although demotion is not often applied a considerable percentage contemplates the application in the near future, especially those employers who encounter work staff aging. The vignette study offers insight in their stated preferences with respect to demotion for a particular employee, described by a number of possible causes of underperformance. The key question is whether these causes refer to internal or external causes and causes which the employee can or cannot control. By using background characteristics on the manager, obtained through survey questions, we can assess whether the decision to demote is also affected the expectations of managers on the wider consequences of making demotion standard practice. Internal causes such as not willing to participate in training, and not being motivated to work increase the likelihood of demotion, whereas external causes (financial situation of the firm) are of little importance. However, even when an employee scores low points on all possible causes, demotion still is hesitantly considered. Much of this hesitation is connected to the perceived negative externalities which managers expect to materialize once demotion becomes standard practice
    Keywords: older workers; demotion; productivity; wages
    JEL: M51 M54 J62
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Helena Chuliá (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Montserrat Guillén (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Jorge M. Uribe (Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Economicas, Universidad del Valle)
    Abstract: We present a methodology to forecast mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. The methodology uses Generalized Dynamic Factor Models fitted over the differences of the log-mortality rates. We compare prediction performance with models previously proposed in the literature, such as the traditional Static Factor Model fitted over the level of log-mortality rates. We also construct risk measures by the means of vinecopulae simulations, taking into account the dependence between the idiosyncratic components of the mortality rates. The methodology is implemented to project the mortality rates of the United Kingdom, for which we consider a portfolio and study longevity and mortality risks.
    Keywords: Longevity, mortality forecasting, factor models, vine-copulae, Value at Risk.
    Date: 2015–03
  11. By: Jante Parlevliet; Thomas Kooiman
    Abstract: Over the last decades, Dutch households have seen a strong growth in both their pension savings and equity in their homes. At the same time, their mortgage debts have also increased. On balance, their net wealth grew while their balance sheets also expanded. In view of the ageing population, the growth in net wealth is, in principle, good news. However, the longer balance sheets have also made households more vulnerable to fluctuations in interest rates and asset prices, as housing market developments made painfully clear in recent years. The growth of the mortgage portfolio has also increased the financial risks for banks. In addition, long balance sheets have an amplifying effect on the cyclicality of the Dutch economy.
    Date: 2015–02
  12. By: OECD
    Abstract: Accelerating innovation for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias is a key challenge. Over the past few years, the OECD has conducted work in a number of areas related to innovation in biomedical research and health innovation for healthy ageing. The workshop aimed to provide an international forum for all stakeholders to drive forward a change in the global paradigm in biomedical research and health innovation for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias. Discussions at the workshop have shown that progress on key issues is being made, thanks to a willingness of stakeholders to join forces and work together towards a future cure. In line with recommendations of the G8 Dementia Summit Declaration to strengthen collaboration for innovation and cross-sector partnerships this report considers the challenges and options to promote and accelerate research in dementia and its transformation into innovative therapies and diagnostics.
    Date: 2015–04–22

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