nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2015‒05‒02
nineteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Permanent Wage Cost Subsidies for Older Workers: An Effective Tool for Increasing Working Time and Postponing Early Retirement? By Albanese, Andrea; Cockx, Bart
  2. The Effects of Employment Uncertainty, Unemployment Insurance, and Wealth Shocks on the Retirement Behavior of Older Americans By Hugo Benítez-Silva; J. Ignacio García-Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
  3. Impacts of the Availability of Old-Age Benefits on Exits from the Labour Market By Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Góra, Marek
  4. How Will Longer Lifespans Affect State and Local Pension Funding? By Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry; Mark Cafarelli
  5. A revision of the revaluation index of Spanish pensions By Oriol Roch; Manuela Bosch- Príncep; Isabel Morillo; Daniel Vilalta
  6. State-level Pension Reform: the Case of Rio Grande do Sul By William McGreevey; Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira; Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão
  7. Brazilian Population Ageing: Differences in Well-being by Rural and Urban Areas By Ana Amélia Camarano
  8. Brazilian Population and the Social Security System: Reform Alternatives By Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão; Sonoe Sugahara Pinheiro
  9. Dalla prudenza alla crescita. Perché e come diversificare la previdenza sociale By Michele Tronconi
  10. The political economy of rationing health care in England and the US: the ‘accidental logics’ of political settlements By Gwyn Bevan; Lawrence D. Brown
  11. Does increased medication use among seniors increase risk of hospitalization and emergency department visits? By Sara Allin; David Rudoler; Audrey Laporte
  12. The political economy of (in)formal long term care transfers By De Donder, Philippe; Leroux, Marie-Louise
  13. Understanding Participation in SSI By Kathleen McGarry; Robert F. Schoeni
  14. Brazilian Agriculture in the 1990s: Impact of the Policy Reforms By Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira; Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão
  15. Population and Social Security in Brazil: an Analysis with Emphasis on Constitutional Changes By Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão; Sonoe Sugahara Pinheiro; Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira
  16. The Big Trade-Off in the World of Labor By Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  17. Cash Benefits to Disabled Persons in Brazil: an Analysis of BPC – Continuous Cash Benefit Programme By Marcelo Medeiros; Debora Diniz; Flávia Squinca
  18. Demographic Changes and Poverty in Brazil By Ricardo Paes de Barros; Sergio Firpo; Roberta Guedes; Phillippe Leite
  19. Basic Issues in Reforming Social Security Systems By Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira

  1. By: Albanese, Andrea (Ghent University); Cockx, Bart (Ghent University)
    Abstract: In several OECD countries age-targeted wage subsidies have been introduced to increase the employment of older workers, but evidence on their effectiveness is scarce. This paper examines the effects of a permanent wage cost subsidy in Belgium on the employment rate, working time and hourly wage. We estimate these effects by integrating Inverse Probability Weighting in a, possibly trend-adjusted, Difference-in-Differences of endogenously sampled repeated cross sections. We find small positive short-run impacts on working time and larger ones on the employment rate, but only for employees at high risk of leaving to early retirement. The wage is not affected.
    Keywords: wage cost subsidies, older workers, weighted Difference-in-Differences, endogenous sampling
    JEL: J14 C21 J18 J3
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Hugo Benítez-Silva; J. Ignacio García-Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
    Abstract: Unemployment rates in developed countries recently reached levels not seen in a generation, and workers of all ages are facing increasing probabilities of losing their jobs and considerable losses in accumulated assets. These events have increased the reliance that most (older) workers have on public social insurance programs, exactly at a time that public finances are suffering from a large drop in contributions. Using administrative and household level data, we empirically characterize a Life-Cycle model of retirement and claiming decisions in terms of the employment, wage, health, and mortality uncertainty faced by individuals. We analyze the role of three intertwined factors in the recent evolution of work and retirement benefits claiming behavior in the United States; namely, higher unemployment uncertainty, higher unemployment benefits, and wealth shocks. We find that higher employment uncertainty reduces work and increases early claiming, while higher unemployment benefits mildly reduce work and reduce claiming at early ages. Finally, negative wealth shocks increase both early claiming and work. When all these factors are combined, the final outcome is a mild decline in labor supply and relatively little variation in early claiming.
    Date: 2015–04
  3. By: Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa (Warsaw School of Economics); Góra, Marek (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: Given human longevity, fertility, health and social developments, workers become inactive relatively early throughout Europe. This partially stems from older workers being pushed out of the labour market and from personal motivation to prefer benefits to wages. We focus on this latter effect and analyse whether workers would have stayed active had they not been tempted by the availability of the old-age benefits. We focus on Poland, a country severely experiencing the problem of population ageing. In 2013 persons 50+ accounted for 37% of the total population. Although they enjoy a relatively low unemployment rate, their participation and employment rates are very low: 34% and 32%, respectively. We analyse whether this is due to the discouraged worker effect. We identify the cyclical properties of activity and discouraged worker rates, and estimate a set of logistic regressions to identify the determinants of the exits from the labour market. Cyclical analysis indicates that the added worker effect prevails over the discouraged worker effect. The discouraged worker effect appears with a delay of a few quarters. The process is asymmetric for females. Workers often permanently leave the market. The availability of old-age benefits increases the probability of outflow from unemployment to inactivity, as do unemployment rate changes. If old-age benefits become the main source of income for the worker within the 1 year interval, they are 8 to 20 times more likely to leave the workforce compared to those who receive either unemployment benefits or social welfare benefits.
    Keywords: discouraged workers, discouraged worker effect, exits from the labour market, unemployment outflow, inflow to inactivity, old-age benefits
    JEL: J14 J22
    Date: 2015–04
  4. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry; Mark Cafarelli
    Abstract: The brief’s key findings are: Rising life expectancy makes defined benefit pension plans more expensive. The question is the extent to which state and local plans have already incorporated rising life expectancy into their cost estimates. *The analysis explores how plan liabilities and funded ratios would be affected by using *RP-2014, a new mortality table designed for private plans; and *a stricter standard that fully incorporates future mortality improvements. *Under the first scenario, liabilities and funding would barely change. Under the second, the average funded ratio would drop from 73 to 67 percent. *Since not even the private sector fully incorporates future improvements, public plans seem to be making a serious effort to keep their assumptions up to date.
    Date: 2015–04
  5. By: Oriol Roch (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB)); Manuela Bosch- Príncep (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB)); Isabel Morillo (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB)); Daniel Vilalta (Universidad de Alcalá)
    Abstract: This article reviews the methodological aspects of the revaluation index of Spanish pensions developed following Law 23/2013 which regulates the sustainability factor and revaluation index of the Social Security pension system. From a gradual breakdown of the elements that make up the revaluation index, an exposition is given of the formal and implementation problems it involves. Finally, its use is illustrated with numerical results.
    Keywords: revaluation index, automatic balancing mechanisms, Spanish Social Security System.
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2015
  6. By: William McGreevey; Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira; Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão
    Abstract: This paper deals with Rio Grande do Sul State public servants retirement system. As most of Brazilian state and local governments, Rio Grande do Sul is facing a serious economic problem with very fast growing expenditures with retirement and survivors benefits for its public servants. The paper gives a brief description of the present situation, followed by a 30 year forecast of future economic behavior. Several possible alternatives are then outlined and evaluated. Este trabalho analisa o sistema de aposentadorias e pensões dos funcionários públicos do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Como grande parte dos governos estaduais e municipais no Brasil, aquele estado enfrenta sérios problemas com despesas crescentes com inativos e pensionistas. O trabalho dá uma breve descrição da problemática atual e mostra projeções de comportamento econômico-financeiro no horizonte de 30 anos. Finalmente, algumas soluções alternativas são apresentadas e avaliadas.
    Date: 2015–01
  7. By: Ana Amélia Camarano
    Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to discuss the relationship between ageing and dependence and the role of social policies in Brazil according to rural and urban areas. In other words, is being elderly in rural areas different from being elderly in urban areas? And if it is found to be so, which dimension of life is affected? How is the social security policy affecting these conditions? As Brazilian national data mask regional differences, the paper also places attention on certain differences between the Northeast (the Brazilian poorest region) and the Southeast (the richest region in this process. In this paper, old age is considered to start at the age of 60. Four dimensions of elderly life are considered, to note: familial arrangements, health conditions, economic activities and income. This is considered taking into account the composition of this group by age and gender according to rural and urban areas. The main data analysed are those from the General Household Surveys (PNAD) of 1981 and 1999. Empirical evidence has shown that in Brazil the relationship between ageing and dependence is not so straightforward. It has shown that the Brazilian elderly are living longer and better. Based on these, one can say that their gains were substantial throughout the studied time period. Poverty and the proportion of elderly without any earnings whatsoever decreased dramatically. They were more marked for the elderly living in rural areas, especially among females. Nevertheless, there is less poverty among the elderly living in urban areas as well. Actually, there is less poverty in general among urban families. Relative better life conditions experienced by the elderly population are contrasted with the effects of the continuous economic crisis experienced by the Brazilian economy. This has affected the young population more through unemployment, violence, drugs, teen-age pregnancy, marital disruption, etc. Poverty increased among the non-elderly urban population aged 25 to 59. As a result, there has been an increase in the time adult children spend as dependents of their parents. The composition of the families with elderly living in has changed to become more complex than the expected “empty nest”. Summarizing, one can say that there has been a change of status for the elderly within their own families, modifying their traditional role of dependent to that of provider. Three factors have been important in enabling such a situation: the widespread coverage of social security, health policies and improvements in medical technology. Nevertheless, better life condition for the elderly has meant marked costs in terms of social security benefits and health policies. Concern with social security costs is a frequent theme in literature. Nevertheless, the unexpected effects of the spread of social security benefit coverage on the elderly and their families should not be neglected in any public policy evaluation. There are 13 million benefited families. This huge value characterises the social security policy as a modern social policy capable of reducing at lest partially, Brazilian poverty. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre envelhecimento e dependência e o papel das políticas sociais perante as condições de domicílio dos entrevistados. Pergunta-se se ser idoso hoje é diferente de ser idoso no passado. Se isto for verdade, quais as condições de vida que são afetadas? Como as políticas de previdência social estão afetando essas condições? Visto que os dados em nível nacional mascaram as diferenças regionais, as diferenças regionais entre o Nordeste e o Sudeste, neste processo, são levadas em conta. Considera-se como idoso a população de mais de 60 anos. Quatro dimensões de vida do idoso são observadas: arranjos familiares, condições de saúde, atividades econômicas e renda. Leva-se em conta, também, a composição deste grupo etário por idade e sexo de acordo com as áreas rurais e urbanas. Os dados analisados são os das PNADs de 1981 e 1999. A evidência empírica mostra que, no Brasil, a relação entre envelhecimento e dependência não é tão direta. Os idosos brasileiros em 1999 viviam melhor do que em 1981, isto medido em termos de renda, níveis de pobreza, condições de saúde e esperança de vida. A proporção de idosos pobres e sem nenhum rendimento decresceu substancialmente no período. O impacto foi maior entre a população rural e, em especial, a feminina. As melhores condições de vida da população idosa são contrastadas com os efeitos das freqüentes crises econômicas experimentadas pela população brasileira. Estas têm afetado mais a população jovem através de desemprego, violência, drogas, gravidez precoce, separações etc. O nível de pobreza cresceu entre a população de 25 a 59 anos. Como resultado, aumentou o tempo em que os filhos adultos passam na condição de dependentes de seus pais. A composição das famílias com idosos está se modificando para se tornar mais complexa do que o esperado “ninho vazio”. Sumariando, pode-se dizer que tem havido uma mudança de status do idoso dentro da família, dada a modificação do seu papel tradicional de dependente para o de provedor. Três fatores foram responsáveis para isto: a expansão da cobertura da seguridade social e das políticas de saúde e os avanços na tecnologia médica. Entretanto, melhores condições de vida para os idosos têm implicado custos elevados para a seguridade social e as políticas de saúde. Entretanto, os efeitos inesperados da expansão da cobertura da seguridade social não devem ser negligenciados em nenhuma avaliação de política pública. São 13 milhões de famílias beneficiadas. Esse valor é suficiente para caracterizar a política de seguridade social como uma política moderna capaz de reduzir, pelo menos parcialmente, a pobreza no Brasil.
    Date: 2015–01
  8. By: Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão; Sonoe Sugahara Pinheiro
    Abstract: This study analyses the situation of the Brazilian population vis-à-vis the Social Security System (SSS) using data from PNAD. We chose the 1982, 1992 and 2002 PNAD data to give a series of pictures of the Brazilian population at equal intervals but under different legal instances with respect to the implementation of Social Security legislation. Special attention is given to poverty alleviation and to the impact of some alternatives among the many that may be considered in an eventual reform of the Brazilian SSS. In the simulations the alternative of postponing the eligibility age has had the greatest effect, mainly when one considers the age of 65, which would be the equivalent of eliminating length-of-service retirement. Age testing is also effective for survivor’s benefit recipients. Eliminating multiple benefits, though not impressive when figures are in question, is progressive in nature and therefore an alternative to be considered. Este estudo analisa, a partir dos dados da PNAD, a situação da população brasileira vis-à-vis o Sistema de Seguridade Social (SSS). Foram escolhidos os anos de 1982, 1992 e 2002 com o objetivo de apresentar retratos da população brasileira em intervalos de tempo iguais, mas sob diferentes legislações no que tange à implementação da legislação de Seguridade Social. Atenção especial foi dada à diminuição da pobreza e ao impacto de algumas alternativas que podem ser consideradas uma eventual reforma do sistema. Dadas as diferenças nas regras de elegibilidade e contribuição das populações urbana e rural, os efeitos das mudanças legais diferem. Nas simulações, a postergação da idade de elegibilidade para o benefício foi bastante significativa, mesmo quando considerada a idade de 65 anos, o que equivaleria à eliminação da aposentadoria por tempo de serviço. O teste de idade foi também significativo para os pensionistas. O teste de necessidade se mostrou também uma boa alternativa a ser considerada. A eliminação dos benefícios múltiplos, naturalmente progressiva, é uma alternativa a ser considerada.
    Date: 2015–01
  9. By: Michele Tronconi
    Abstract: This paper talks about multi-pillar pension system in Italy, focusing most on the impact of Pension Funds established by trade unions and employers associations. Minor sensitivity to demographic shocks is what makes funding appealing in respect of public <em>pay-as-you-go</em> scheme. Benefit comes from portfolio diversification, not only in terms of asset class but also in terms of national baskets. If Social Security is properly a local problem its solution can be a global one, because savings can be channeled into investments abroad improving the efficiency of funding. Exactly what happened in Italy in the last six years during which two thirds of the resources accumulated by our occupational Pension Funds were allocated in foreign markets. Caution was rewarded because it allowed to go trough financial turmoil. Nonetheless the strong decoupling between the origin of savings and the place of their investment had some sort of a side effect on national real economy. It operated as a pro-cyclical amplifier. The mitigation of this side effect depends on the way we will reallocate a larger part of our savings in Italian economy using special purpose instruments. Only then our Pension Funds will completely assume the financial role of <em>institutional investors</em>.
    Date: 2014–10
  10. By: Gwyn Bevan; Lawrence D. Brown
    Abstract: This article considers how the 'accidental logics' of political settlements for the English National Health Service (NHS) and the Medicare and Medicaid programmes in the United States have resulted in different institutional arrangements and different implicit social contracts for rationing, which we define to be the denial of health care that is beneficial but is deemed to be too costly. This article argues that rationing is designed into the English NHS and designed out of US Medicare; and compares rationing for the elderly in the United States and in England for acute care, care at the end of life, and chronic care.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2014–07–01
  11. By: Sara Allin; David Rudoler; Audrey Laporte
    Abstract: Objective: to examine the extent of the health risks of consuming multiple medications among the older population. Data sources/study setting: Secondary data from the period 2004-2006. The study setting was the province of Ontario, Canada, and the sample consisted of individuals aged 65 years or older who responded to a national health survey. Study design: We estimated a system of equations for inpatient and emergency department (ED) services to test the marginal effect of medication use on hospital services. We controlled for endogeneity in medication use with a two-stage residual inclusion approach appropriate for non-linear models. Principal findings: In- creased prescription drug use has the effect of increasing the likelihood of both being admitted into hospital and visiting a hospital ED. Each additional medication is associated with a 2% increase the likelihood of hospitalization and ED visit, after controlling for past utilization, health status, the endogeneity of medication use, and the unobserved factors that may affect the use of both services. Conclusions: Multiple medications appear to increase the risk of hospitalization among seniors covered by a universal prescription drug plan. These results raise questions about the appropriateness of medication use and the need for increased oversight of current prescribing practices.
    Keywords: pharmaceuticals, instrumental variable, seniors, Ontario
    Date: 2015–04
  12. By: De Donder, Philippe; Leroux, Marie-Louise
    Abstract: We develop a model where families consist of one parent and one child, with children differing in income and all agents having the same probability of becoming dependent when old. Young and old individuals vote over the size of a social long term care transfer program, which children complement with informal (time) or formal (money) help to their dependent parent. Dependent parents have an intrinsic preference over informal to monetary help. We first show that low (resp., high) income children provide informal (resp. formal) help, whose amount is decreasing (resp. increasing) with the child's income. The middle income class may give no family help at all, and its elderly members would be the main beneficiaries of the introduction of social LTC transfers. We then provide several reasons for the stylized fact that there are little social LTC transfers in most countries. First, social transfers are dominated by informal help when the intrinsic preference of dependent parents for informal help is large enough. Second, when the probability of becoming dependent is lower than one third, the children of autonomous parents are numerous enough to oppose democratically the introduction of social LTC transfers. Third, even when none of the first two conditions is satisfied, the majority voting equilibrium may entail no social transfers, especially if the probability of becoming dependent when old is not far above one third. This equilibrium may be local (meaning that it would be defeated by the introduction of a sufficiently large social program). This local majority equilibrium may be empirically relevant whenever new programs have to be introduced at a low scale before being eventually ramped up.
    Keywords: Majority Voting, local Condorcet winner, crowding out, intrinsic preference for informal help, tax reform.
    JEL: D91 H55 I13
    Date: 2015–04–18
  13. By: Kathleen McGarry (University of California, Los Angeles and NBER); Robert F. Schoeni (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: The Supplemental Security Income program (SSI) provides a guaranteed income for the elderly. As such it can serve to mitigate any deleterious effects of reductions in Social Security benefits that might result from any Social Security reform. However, participation in SSI among qualified individuals has proven to be low. We show that this low participation rate, just over 50%, observed at the program’s inception has continued to today with little if any change. We also find that transfers from children are far larger among eligible non-participants suggesting that family assistance may offset the need for public assistance.
    Date: 2015–01
  14. By: Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira; Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão
    Abstract: This paper presents a summarized picture of the Brazilian Social Insurance System, both in terms of the system that cover workers in private sector — Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS) (General Regime for Social Security) — and in terms of the various systems that cover public servants hired under the civil service unified regime — Regime Jurídico Único (RJU) (Pension Regime for Government Workers). After a brief analysis of its historical evolution, a diagnosis of the current situation will be presented. Finally, the various reforms are evaluated in terms of their economic impact for the 2000-2030 time horizon. The conclusion is that, despite substantial deficit reductions, further reforms are crucial to restore equilibrium. O trabalho oferece uma visão resumida da previdência social no Brasil, tanto em termos do Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS) como dos regimes previdenciários, cuja clientela são os funcionários públicos pertencentes ao Regime Jurídico Único (RJU). Após uma breve análise da sua evolução histórica, esboça-se um diagnóstico e apresenta-se a situação atual. Finalmente, são analisados os impactos econômico-financeiros das várias medidas tomadas para o horizonte 2000-2030. Conclui-se que, embora os déficits experimentem substanciais reduções, futuras reformas serão indispensáveis.
    Date: 2015–01
  15. By: Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão; Sonoe Sugahara Pinheiro; Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira
    Abstract: This paper analyses the situation of the Brazilian population disaggregated by urban/rural condition with respect to Social Insurance and Social Assistance with emphasis on recent changes. It starts with a historical overview of the system, but concentrates on new provisions mandated by the 1988 Constitution. The 1988 Constitution defined new rules with regard to eligibility conditions and benefit values for both the rural and urban population. But it was only in July 1991, with Law 8213, that these changes were fully implemented. We compare, by sex and individual age, activity rates and probability of receiving benefits, before and after the changes in legislation for the urban and rural population. For the urban population we take into consideration the formalization of work ties. We compare, also in two instances in time, family structure and the importance of the income of the elderly in the family budget. Este texto compara a situação da população brasileira desagregada por condição de domicílio (urbano/rural) em dois instantes do tempo, 1988 e 1998, vis-à-vis a previdência e a assistência social, utilizando informações das PNADs. Principia com uma visão panorâmica da evolução do sistema de seguridade social brasileiro, com ênfase na previdência social, concentrando-se nas mudanças mais recentes. Ainda que a Constituição de 1988 tenha modificado as regras de elegibilidade e o valor dos benefícios tanto para a população urbana quanto rural, foi somente com a Lei 8.213, de julho de 1991, que essas mudanças foram inteiramente implementadas. São comparadas, por sexo e idade individual, as taxas de atividade e de recebimento de benefícios antes e depois da mudança de legislação para a população urbana e a rural. Na população urbana considera-se a formalização da relação de trabalho. Comparam-se também, as estruturas familiares, a participação da renda dos idosos na renda da família e a sua relevância no orçamento familiar.
    Date: 2015–01
  16. By: Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA and University of Bonn)
    Abstract: The world is changing rapidly. This paper describes key shifts and it discusses their likely impacts on employment-related aspects. Labor market pressures are felt around the globe, and robots and automation increasingly become reality. However, there will be no "end of work". Rather, it is that work will take on different forms. Important innovations are required nonetheless to carefully and smartly balance the positives and negatives of the changing workforce and workplace. But societies have already shown their ability to cope with great changes in the past.
    Keywords: robots, automation, productivity, technological change, demographic change, informality, flexibility
    JEL: J08 J24 O33 O38 O15
    Date: 2015–05
  17. By: Marcelo Medeiros; Debora Diniz; Flávia Squinca
    Abstract: The paper presents an analysis of the Continuous Cash Benefit Programme (BPC, which stands for Benefício de Prestação Continuada in Portuguese), an unconditional cash transfer to the elderly or to extremely poor individuals with disabilities. The information used in the assessment stems from the study of court decisions and laws related to the programme since its implementation, an analysis based on questionnaires applied to medical experts, interviews with the programme managers, as well as a review of pre-existing studies regarding BPC. In order to contribute to the management of the programme, as well as to improvements or even implementation of similar programmes in other countries, the study gives some recommendations about the design, operation and future evaluations of the programme.
    Date: 2015–01
  18. By: Ricardo Paes de Barros; Sergio Firpo; Roberta Guedes; Phillippe Leite
    Abstract: In this study we present evidence of the impact of demographic factors on the level of poverty based on the Brazilian experience. Two demographic factors were investigated: a) the size and b) the age composition of the population. The goal was to estimate through the micro-simulation approach the impact of changes in these two factors on the distribution of income and consequently on the level of poverty. We presented estimates of the impact on poverty of a series of alternative demographic changes. First, we consider the demographic changes that occurred over the previous decades. We showed that these changes led to a continuous reduction in poverty, which is equivalent to an additional 0.4 to 0.5 percentage point in annual growth in per capita income. Since the average growth rate in per capita income in Brazil over the studied period was close to 3.0% per year, the estimated direct impact of the demographic transition had an impact on poverty close to 15% of the corresponding impact of economic growth. We also investigated: a) the importance of regional differences in demographic conditions and b) demographic differences between poor and rich families for explaining concomitant differences in poverty. Accordingly to our estimates, we can conclude that overall secular demographic changes tend to have much greater impact on poverty than differences in the time and the speed of the demographic transition across regions and between poor and rich families. Neste estudo, apresentam-se evidências do impacto dos fatores demográficos sobre a pobreza no Brasil. Dois fatores demográficos são investigados: o tamanho e a composição etária da população. O objetivo é estimar, por meio de microssimulações com dados da PNAD, o impacto de mudanças nesses dois fatores sobre a distribuição de renda e conseqüentemente sobre a pobreza. Os resultados encontrados revelam que as mudanças demográficas ocorridas ao longo das últimas décadas geraram importante e contínua redução na pobreza. Tal redução, fruto das mudanças na composição etária e no tamanho das famílias, é equivalente a um crescimento adicional da renda per capita em até meio ponto percentual ao ano. Dado que a taxa de crescimento anual da renda per capita ao longo do período analisado foi próximo a 3%, o efeito da mudança demográfica ocorrida nesse período sobre a redução da pobreza corresponde a aproximadamente 15% do efeito que o crescimento da renda teve sobre tal redução. Os demais resultados encontrados no presente estudo revelam que a mudança secular na composição demográfica foi muito mais importante para a redução da pobreza do que as diferenças entre regiões de velocidade e de momento das transições demográficas e do que as diferenças demográficas ocorridas entre pobres e ricos.
    Date: 2015–01
  19. By: Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira
    Abstract: The paper analyses conceptual issues involved in the design and/or reform of social security systems classified in three major groups: general characteristics, costing and operational issues. O paper analisa questões conceituais envolvidas no desenho/reforma de sistemas de seguridade social, classificados conforme três grandes grupos: características gerais, aspectos de custeio e operacionaisO paper analisa questões conceituais envolvidas no desenho/reforma de sistemas de seguridade social, classificados conforme três grandes grupos: características gerais, aspectos de custeio e operacionais..
    Date: 2015–01

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