nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2015‒01‒09
seventeen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Flexible Pension Take-up in Social Security By Adema, Y.; Bonenkamp, J.; Meijdam, A.C.
  2. Public finance sustainability gap and raising the retirement age, abstract and full summary By Heikki Oksanen
  3. The Effect of Pension Income on Longevity: Evidence from Confederate Veterans By Mayvis Rebeira
  4. Do Tax Incentives Increase 401(k) Retirement Saving? Evidence from the Adoption of Catch-Up Contributions By Matthew S. Rutledge; April Yanyuan Wu; Francis M. Vitagliano
  5. Propuesta de una Pensión Universal Proporcional en México By Alejandro Villagómez; Gabriel Ramírez
  6. Life cycle responses to health insurance status By Pelgrin, F.;; St-Amour, P.;
  7. The Integration of Elderly and Disabled People into Urban and Social Life: A New Model for Konya/Turkey-YEBAM By H.Filiz Alkan Meshur; Ahmet Alkan
  8. Who turns to entrepreneurship later in life? - Push and pull in Finnish rural and urban areas By Hannu Tervo
  9. Impact of aging on curative health care workforce. Country Report Poland By Stanislawa Golinowska; Agnieszka Sowa; Ewa Kocot
  10. Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence? By Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Mérette
  11. Concepts of retirement and the evaluation of post-retirement work: Positions of political actors in Germany and the UK By Scherger, Simone; Hagemann, Steffen
  12. Intergenerational Developments in Household Saving Behaviour By Mark Vink
  13. Means-tested long term care and family transfers By CREMER, Helmuth; PESTIEAU, Pierre
  14. Employer accommodation and labor supply of disabled workers By Matthew J. Hill; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
  15. Demographic change and unemployment in East Germany: how close are the ties? By Michaela Fuchs; Antje Weyh
  16. Working Paper 09-14 - Une méthodologie de projection des ménages : le modèle HPROM (Household PROjection Model) By Marie Vandresse
  17. Projections de l'état de santé de la population québécoise et impacts sur le risque de longévité d'un régime de retraite à prestations déterminée By Aurélie Côté-Sergent; Jean-Yves Duclos; Alexandre Lekina; Steeve Marchand; Pierre-Carl Michaud

  1. By: Adema, Y. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Bonenkamp, J. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Meijdam, A.C. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper studies the redistribution and welfare effects of increasing the flexibility of individual pension take-up. We use an overlapping-generations model with Beveridgean pay-as-you-go pensions, where individuals differ in ability and life span. We find that introducing flexible pension take-up can induce a Pareto improvement when the initial pension scheme contains within-cohort redistribution and induces early retirement. Such a Pareto-improving reform entails the application of uniform actuarial adjustment of pension entitlements based on average life expectancy. Introducing actuarial non-neutrality that stimulates later retirement further improves such a flexibility reform.
    Keywords: redistribution; retirement; flexible pensions
    JEL: H55 H23 J26
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Heikki Oksanen
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate a pension reform in which the old-age pension entry age will be increased significantly: first by five years over the next ten years, and will then be linked to the projected increase in life expectancy. This needs to be examined in order to obtain a more comprehensive view of available policy options. By increasing the retirement age, pension contributions can be reduced while still providing adequate pensions.<br><br> The agreement signed by the central labour market organisations on 26 September 2014 will only lead to a moderate increase in the retirement age. The ratio between the number of years spent in retirement and years at work will not decrease but rather still increase a little. Approximately the current level of pension contributions would be required to finance pensions. There are grounds for raising the retirement age more than targeted by the said agreement because the current level is relatively low. This constrains potential production and therefore the tax base. The tax base needs to be expanded, in order for example to meet the expenditure pressures of other publicly financed age-related items.<br><br> The public finance sustainability gap has been much discussed recently, but its actual meaning has remained vague and the gravity of public finance problems has generally not been fully understood. Over the ten years 1999?2008, Finland?s general government budget was in surplus and there was no sustainability gap. After 2008 the international financial and economic crisis hit Finland hard. Production per capita is now at the 2005 level, the gross tax rate has increased, and due to the country?s high production costs overall economic projections are gloomy. Financing expanding age-related expenditure by increasing taxation may prove to be difficult in practice. Increasing taxes would in any event have significant negative impacts. <br><br> The required entry age for old-age pensions can be expected to guide on-the-job training and recruitment already well before the expected retirement age. The signal indicating that the pension age will increase should be strong enough for there to be a clear change in the personnel policies of employers and in the plans of employees in their 50s and 60s, so that people would stay longer in productive work. <br><br> The government has set a target of removing the sustainability gap, which was estimated at 4% of GDP in August 2014. The contribution of the pension agreement between the labour market parties was set at one percentage point, and the outcome of the negotiations met this target. In addition, the government aims at removing the rest of the gap by increasing the participation rates in other age groups and improving the efficiency of public administration and services. For the most part, these measures are yet open. <br><br> Regarding the pension reform being prepared, there will be regular evaluations from 2019 onwards. These evaluations will benefit from studies analysing a wide range of available policy options.<br><br> Key words: pensions, retirement age, sustainability gap, public finance.<br><br> <a href="">Read the full summary (PDF)</a><br><br> <a href="">Publication (PDF, in Finnish)</a><br><br>
    Date: 2014–10–27
  3. By: Mayvis Rebeira
    Abstract: This study uses differences in pension laws between two adjacent states to investigate the causal effect of pension income longevity. I examined Confederate pensions in Texas and Oklahoma, which enacted pension laws for veterans in 1889 and 1915 respectively. Using previously collected and newer data on Confederate veterans from these states, I use the adapted Grossman model to test the effect of pension income on mortality. Since Confederate pensions represent a significant source of permanent, steady income for the veterans, I am able to determine the role of newly-endowed wealth on longevity. I found that veterans in Texas gained nearly 1.3 years (or 15 months) of additional years of life, as compared to veterans in Oklahoma. I also found that for every $10 increase in pension income, there was a 0.4% increase in years of additional life and 0.7% increase in years of life, if county-level controls are taken into consideration. The effect of an increase in pension income on longevity is large and significant.
    Keywords: pensions, income, mortality, Grossman model, health gradient, confederate veterans
    JEL: I12 J14 N41
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Matthew S. Rutledge; April Yanyuan Wu; Francis M. Vitagliano
    Abstract: The U.S. government subsidizes retirement saving through 401(k) plans with $61.4 billion in tax expenditures annually, but the question of whether these tax incentives are effective in increasing saving remains unanswered. Using longitudinal U.S. Social Security Administration data on tax-deferred earnings linked to the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the project examines whether the “catch-up provision,” which was enacted in 2001 and allows workers over age 50 to contribute more to their 401(k) plans, has been effective in increasing earnings deferrals. Compared with similar workers under age 50, the study finds that contributions increased by $540 more among age-50-plus individuals who had approached the 401(k) tax-deferral limits prior to turning 50, suggesting that the older individuals respond to the expanded tax incentives. For this group, the elasticity of retirement savings to the tax incentive is quite high: a one-dollar increase in the tax-deferred limit leads to an immediate 49-cent increase in 401(k) contributions.
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Alejandro Villagómez (Division of Economics, CIDE); Gabriel Ramírez
    Abstract: Contributory pension system coverage has been low. High mobility between formal and the informal sector results in low contribution density which does not guarantee a minimum pension. The state has created cash transfer programs, which can disincentive formality. This paper proposes a proportional pension for formal employees, which replaces the fixed cash transfer, following the experience of Chile (2008). We follow the Valdés-Prieto approach (2008), which minimizes labour-market distortions. Under the assumption of linear income trajectory, we show that the total value of pensions can increase in 45.6% on average, and fiscal savings in 14.8% when compared to a non-contributory pension program as “65 y Más”.
    Keywords: Contributory pension system, coverage, Mexico, formal sector, informal sector
    JEL: H55 H53 I38
    Date: 2013–10
  6. By: Pelgrin, F.;; St-Amour, P.;
    Abstract: Health insurance status can change over the life cycle for exogenous reasons (e.g. Medicare for the elders, PPACA for younger agents, termination of coverage at retirement in employer-provided plans). Durability of the health capital, endogenous mortality and morbidity, as well as backward induction suggests that these changes should affect the dynamic life cycle beyond the period at which theyoccur. The purpose of this paper is to study these lifetime effects on the optimal allocation (consumption, leisure, health expenditures), status (health, wealth and survival rates), and welfare. We analyse the impact of young (resp. old) insurance status conditional on old (resp. young) coverage through the structural estimation of a dynamic model with endogenous death and sickness risks. Our resultsshow that young insurees are healthier, wealthier, consume more health care yet are less exposed to OOP risks, and substitute less (more) leisure before (after) retirement. Old insurees show similar patterns, except for lower precautionary wealth balances. Compulsory health insurance is unambiguously optimal for elders, and for young agents, except early in the life cycle. We draw other implicationsfor public policy such as Medicare and PPACA.
    Keywords: household finance;endogenous morbidity and mortality risks; demand for health; medicare and patient protection and aordable care act; simulated moments estimation;
    JEL: D91 G11 I13
    Date: 2014–08
  7. By: H.Filiz Alkan Meshur; Ahmet Alkan
    Abstract: The process of demographic change occurring around the world is also reflected in Turkey. The elderly population and thus, the number of people who are in need of care, will increase in Turkey in the future. Furthermore, approximately 13% of Turkey's population consists of disabled people. This ratio reaches 20% when including disabilities caused by aging. Certain physical and mental disabilities due to aging make the lives of elderly people more difficult. Strengthening the connection of elderly and disabled people with life and society can only be possible by providing them with environments to spend their lives in a safe, healthy, independent and productive manner. It is not possible to solve this problem with the previous care models in Turkey. Environments that combine working, education and social possibilities, providing the elderly and disabled people with independent living areas, should be created. Despite prominent developments in recent years for the education of disabled people, they have not yet reached the desired level in social and professional areas. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive training, research and care center for elderly and disabled people (YEBAM) that will provide a combination of care, rehabilitation, educational, social and cultural services. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate YEBAM, which will be the first center in Turkey providing education, care and job opportunities for elderly and disabled people, in social and spatial terms. The first section discusses the process of demographic change around the world and in Turkey and the search for new ways of care and design. The next section discusses the purpose, vision, regional and national importance, design concept and principles of YEBAM. YEBAM's layout plan and architectural plans were prepared taking social, psychological and spatial needs of elderly and disabled people in light of universal design principles. In this plan, elderly and disabled people will have the chance to live in their own houses and will take part in social activities in common areas. The care services required will be provided by trained personnel.
    Keywords: Elderly; disability; disabled people; elderly people; training research and care center;
    Date: 2014–11
  8. By: Hannu Tervo
    Abstract: Age is an important factor in entrepreneurship. The paths into entrepreneurship at a later age may be varied. Self-employment in later life may be either a form of partial retirement or a career option. Older individuals may also be pushed into self-employment. The focus of this paper is on the career choices of older individuals and their background motivations in Finland. The purpose is to analyse the factors and motives in terms of the push and pull dichotomy that lead individuals to enter self-employment at older ages in different types of labour markets in Finland, viz., rural and urban areas. Although some studies have focused on transitions to self-employment among older workers, questions about the motives and particularly about the background and circumstances of these people, including the regional environment, still need clarification. A large longitudinal data set is utilised to examine the transitions of individuals aged 55-74 to self-employment. The results suggest that due to a lower level of demand and lower educational capital, self-employment is less tempting in rural than in urban areas. As a result, transitions to self-employment at older ages are less frequent in rural areas than in urban areas, although rural areas have strong traditions of entrepreneurship. Seniors with prior experience are more likely to start a business in urban areas: habitual entrepreneurship is more frequent in urban areas, at least in later life. Older workers without prior experience in self-employment, however, start businesses in rural areas as likely as in urban areas. The results also show that most enter self-employment from paid employment, though a small number do enter from non-employment. The results suggest that a career option is often linked with transitions from wage work, whereas those transitioning from non-employment seek a bridge to full retirement. No sharp division between these two options can be made, however. The results suggest that those who are recognised to possess pull motives are characterised to be more likely male and/or highly educated, whereas those who are recognised to possess push motives are more likely female, unmarried and/or less educated with an orientation of business education. An interesting finding is that both necessity- and opportunity-driven self-employed have prior self-employment experience. Independent of whether entrepreneurship is necessity- or opportunity-driven, it is most likely habitual.
    Keywords: self-employment; third age; rural and urban regions; habitual and novice entrepreneurship; necessity vs. opportunity JEL-codes:
    JEL: J14 J24 J26 M13 R23
    Date: 2014–11
  9. By: Stanislawa Golinowska; Agnieszka Sowa; Ewa Kocot
    Abstract: The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
    Keywords: Health Care, Employment in Health Care, Employment Projections, Labor Resources in Health, Medical Professions
    JEL: H51 H75 I18
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Mérette
    Abstract: The aim and scope of this paper is to isolate the effects of population ageing in the context of potential Scottish independence. Fiscal challenges are often quoted as a strong argument against independence. Demographic processes play an important role in determining future economic growth via their impact on labour market, saving behaviour and government budget. One of the arguments that have been raised during the debate is that Scotland is in a worse demographic situation than RUK, and independence will make it harder for it to provide for its ageing population. In this paper we developed a multi-regional OLG-CGE model for Scotland, the rest of the UK (RUK) and the rest of the World (ROW). The model is used to evaluate the two scenarios: the status quo and the independence scenarios. The status quo scenario assumes that Scotland stays part of the UK and all government expenditures associated with its ageing population (mainly pensions and health) are funded on a UK-wide basis. In the independence scenario, Scotland and the rest of the UK have separate government budget constraints and pay for the growing demands of their ageing populations independently. According to the status quo scenario, population ageing has a strong impact on economic development in both regions. By 2060 output per person falls in Scotland and RUK by 9% and 10% respectively and total government spending increases by about 4 percentage points of GDP in both regions. To achieve government budget balance the effective labour income tax rate has to increase from about 13.0% to 21.5%. The comparison of the two scenarios suggests that Scotland is worse off in the case of independence. The effective labour income tax rate in the independence scenario has to increase further compared with the status quo scenario. The additional increase reaches its maximum in 2035 at 1.4 percentage points. The additional rise in the tax rate is non-negligible, but is much smaller than the population ageing effect (status quo scenario) which generates an increase of about 8.5 percentage points by 2060. The difference for government finances between the status quo and independence scenarios is thus relatively small. The bottom line is that, clearly, population ageing is a major issue for Scotland and RUK, no matter the final result of the independence vote. But unless the speed and intensity of population ageing in Scotland increases rapidly relative to RUK in the years to come, demographic change is not a strong argument to influence the choice between the status quo and independence.
    Keywords: Scotland; independence; OLG; government spending; population ageing;
    JEL: C68 E17 H53 J11
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Scherger, Simone; Hagemann, Steffen
    Abstract: Concepts of retirement and related moral arguments play an important role in debates around pension reform. What retirement is - or should be - varies according to the surrounding welfare culture and an actor's general interests and beliefs. In this paper, we study the meaning that specific collective actors in Germany and the UK attribute to retirement, and their evaluation of post-retirement work, which is an exception to 'normal' retirement. For this purpose, we examine interviews with experts from unions, employer federations and relevant non-profit organisations which have been conducted in the context of a wider comparative project. Additionally, we draw on policy documents by the same actors. Our analysis of the interviews and the documents reveals similar retirement concepts among the same kinds of actors across countries: trade unions and at least some non-profit organisations advocate retirement as a social right and as a distinct (ideally work-free) phase of life. In contrast, employers have a less substantial concept of retirement. At the same time, when morally justifying what retirement should be in their view, the actors refer to ideas that establish a connection to the specific welfare culture surrounding them.
    Abstract: In Debatten um Rentenreformen spielen Vorstellungen darüber, was die Lebensphase des Ruhestands ist oder sein sollte, und darauf bezogene moralische Argumente eine wichtige Rolle. Diese Vorstellungen sind zum einen von der jeweiligen Wohlfahrtskultur geprägt, zum anderen hängen sie eng mit den Interessen und Ansichten der an den Debatten beteiligten Akteure zusammen. In diesem Arbeitspapier untersuchen wir die Bedeutung, die bestimmte kollektive Akteure in Deutschland und Großbritannien dem Ruhestand als Lebensphase zuschreiben, sowie ihre Bewertung von bezahlter Arbeit jenseits der Rentengrenze, die eine Ausnahme vom 'normalen' Ruhestand darstellt. Zu diesem Zweck analysieren wir Interviews mit Experten von Gewerkschaften, Arbeitgeberverbänden und von in diesem Feld relevanten gemeinnützigen Organisationen. Neben den Interviews, die im Rahmen eines größeren vergleichenden Projekts geführt wurden, werden außerdem politische Dokumente (insbesondere Positionspapiere) der gleichen Organisationen einbezogen. Unsere Analyse der Interviews und Dokumente zeigt, dass vergleichbare Akteure in verschiedenen Ländern auch ähnliche Ruhestandskonzepte vertreten: Gewerkschaften und zumindest einige der betrachteten gemeinnützigen Organisationen sprechen sich für Ruhestand als soziales Recht und als eine klar abgegrenzte, idealerweise arbeitsfreie Lebensphase aus. Im Gegensatz dazu vertreten Arbeitgeberverbände ein weniger gehaltvolles Ruhestandskonzept. Gleichzeitig beziehen sich alle Akteure auf Ideen, die Teil der jeweiligen Wohlfahrtskultur sind, wenn sie moralisch rechtfertigen, was der Ruhestand in ihren Augen sein sollte.
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Mark Vink (The Treasury)
    Abstract: This paper examines the saving behaviour of different generations of households in New Zealand over the period 1984 to 2010 using data from the Household Economic Survey. The paper employs a life-cycle framework to estimate regression models that identify the influence of age and birth year on household saving rates. Consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis, the results show that household saving rates exhibit a hump shape over the life cycle. The results also indicate significant differences in the average saving rates of households from different birth cohorts. From the baby boomers onward, the average saving rates of each generation exceed those of the generation preceding it. Although there are differences between the Household Economic Survey and national accounts saving measures, which present a caveat to the analysis, the paper’s findings provide some insight into demographic influences on national household saving trends. The results suggest that the movement of the baby boomers into their higher saving years has contributed positively to aggregate saving rates, but that future effects of population ageing are likely to be negative. On the other hand, it is possible that the lift in saving rates over recent generations will provide an ongoing positive contribution to aggregate saving rates throughout the projection period ending 2030.
    Keywords: Household saving, life cycle, age, cohorts
    JEL: D14 D91 E21
    Date: 2014–11
  13. By: CREMER, Helmuth (Toulouse School of Economics); PESTIEAU, Pierre (CREPP, Universté de Liège; Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)
    Abstract: One of the pervasive problems with means-tested public long term care (LTC) programs is their inability to prevent individuals who could afford private long term services from taking advantage of public care. They often manage to elude the means-test net through “strategic impoverishment”. We show in a simple model how this problem comes about, how it affects welfare and how it can be mitigated.
    Keywords: long term care, means-testing, strategic impoverishment, opting out, public insurance, altruism
    JEL: H2 H5
    Date: 2014–06–11
  14. By: Matthew J. Hill; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
    Abstract: We use longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study to examine what factors influence employer accommodation of newly disabled workers and how effective such accommodations are in retaining workers and discouraging disability insurance applications. We find that only a quarter of newly disabled older workers are accommodated by their employers in some way following onset of a disability. Importantly, we find that few employer characteristics explain which workers are accommodated; rather, employee characteristics, particularly the presence of certain personality traits correlated with assertiveness and open communication, are highly predictive of accommodation. This suggests that policies targeting employer incentives may not be particularly effective at increasing accommodation rates since employers may not even be aware of their employees’ need for accommodation. We also find that if employer accommodation rates can be increased, disabled workers would be significantly more likely to delay labor force exit, at least for two years. However, we do not find significant effects on the disability insurance claiming margin.
    Date: 2014–10
  15. By: Michaela Fuchs; Antje Weyh
    Abstract: In East Germany a profound demographic change has been taking place that manifests itself in the shrinkage and the aging of the population. One major cause is the drop in the East German fertility rates by about half directly after the reunification of Germany in 1990. In no other countries of the former Eastern Bloc, this process was so drastic and abrupt as in East Germany. Around the year 2007, the small after-reunification cohorts started to enter the East German labor market that had been characterized for many years by high unemployment and declining employment. Beginning in 2005, however, the situation on the labor market reversed. At the same time, substantial labor market reforms were started in Germany that have additionally spurred employment. Given these developments, the question arises if and to what extent the labor market entry of the young and smaller cohorts has affected the declining unemployment rate in East Germany. This paper tackles the question of the ties between demography and unemployment in East Germany and to this end draws on the concepts of the cohort crowding literature. Using data from official population and labor-market statistics for the period from 1993 to 2012, we calculate both a direct and an indirect effect of aging on unemployment. For the direct effect we decompose the East German unemployment rate in three components. We find that not changes in the age structure of the population but rather labor-market effects had the greatest impact on the decrease in unemployment. For the econometric analysis of the indirect effect, we use information on the small-scale regional level and resort to spatial panel methods. The results yield a strong relation between the youth as well as the old-age dependency ratio and the unemployment ratio. A decline in the youth dependency ratio of one per cent comes along with a decline of the unemployment ratio of 0.489 per cent. Likewise, an increase of the old-age dependency ratio of one per cent is accompanied by a fall of the unemployment ratio of 0.470 per cent. Overall, our results provide evidence that the declining unemployment rate in East Germany is indeed affected by aging. Thus, a reversed cohort crowding effect has been taking place in the East German labor market.
    Keywords: Demographic change; Unemployment; East Germany; Spatial panel methods;
    JEL: C21 J21 J82 R23
    Date: 2014–11
  16. By: Marie Vandresse
    Abstract: This Working Paper presents the methodology the Federal Planning Bureau currently utilizes to draw up the Belgian household projections by 2060. This methodology allows for detailed projections of the number of households (at the district level) by household type and according to the factual situation and not the legal situation. Thus, the projections include the different forms of living arrangements, such as cohabitation, single-parent families, single households, etc. They also guarantee the coherence with the national population projections which have been published by the Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General of Statistics for several years and are based on the so-called component method.
    Keywords: Demography, Demographic projections
    JEL: C18 J11 J12
    Date: 2014–11–20
  17. By: Aurélie Côté-Sergent; Jean-Yves Duclos; Alexandre Lekina; Steeve Marchand; Pierre-Carl Michaud
    Abstract: Nous nous intéressons au risque futur de longévité étant donné l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie due au progrès technologique et la hausse de la prévalence de maladies liées à l'obésité et à la sédentarité. Nous utilisons dans un premier temps des techniques de microsimulation afin de projeter l'état de santé de la population québécoise, en incluant dans cette microsimulation une hypothèse d'amélioration exogène de la mortalité semblable à celle faite par la Régie des rentes du Québec (RRQ). Nous évaluons dans un deuxième temps les implications pour le ratio de financement de régimes de retraite à prestations déterminées des tendances en santé fournies par cette microsimulation. Ce ratio se situe entre 0,24 et 0,74 en 2050 selon les scénarios retenus, indiquant ainsi que les régimes de retraite pourraient s'avérer fortement déficitaires dans le futur. Nous analysons dans un dernier temps les hypothèses de mortalité faites par la RRQ en considérant des scénarios alternatifs associés à des avancées médicales susceptibles de se produire dans les 10 prochaines années. Il s'avère selon cette analyse que les hypothèses de la RRQ pourraient surestimer significativement la croissance de l'espérance de vie future, en particulier celle des individus de 30 à 65 ans.
    Keywords: santé, longévité et régimes de retraite
    JEL: C63 J11 J26 J32
    Date: 2014

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