nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2015‒01‒03
twenty-six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. The macroeconomics of PAYG pension schemes in an aging society By artige, LIONEL; CAVENAILE, Laurent; PESTIEAU, Pierre
  2. Policy Variation, Labor Supply Elasticities, and a Structural Model of Retirement By Manoli, Dayanand; Mullen, Kathleen; Wagner, Mathis
  3. Reforming the U.S. Social Security system accounting for employment uncertainty By Hugo Benítez-Silva; José Ignacio García-Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
  4. Retirement Transitions In Japan By Robert Clark; Rikiya Matsukura; Naohiro Ogawa
  5. Demanding occupations and the retirement age in the Netherlands By Niels Vermeer; Mauro Mastrogiacomo; Arthur van Soest
  6. Wealth decumulation, portfolio composition and financial literacy among European elderly By Agnese Romiti; Mariacristina Rossi
  7. Are Retirees Falling Short? Reconciling the Conflicting Evidence By Alicia H. Munnell; Matthew S. Rutledge; Anthony Webb
  8. How Much Does Access to Health Insurance Influence the Timing of Retirement? By Norma Coe; Gopi Shah Goda
  9. Workplace health promotion and labour market performance of employees By Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Wunsch, Conny
  10. The Impact of a Permanent Income Shock on the Situation of Women in the Household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina By Berniell, Inés; de la Mata, Dolores; Machado, Matilde Pinto
  11. Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee-Carter mortality model By Laurent Callot; Niels Haldrup; Malene Kallestrup Lamb
  12. Ageing and entrepreneurship across Dutch regions By Jan de Kok; Tommy Span
  13. The Long Reach of Education: Early Retirement By Steven Venti; David A. Wise
  14. Effects of Retirement and Lifetime Earnings Profile on Health Investment By Hernán Bejarano; Hillard Kaplan; Stephen Rassenti
  15. Source of health insurance coverage and employment survival among newly disabled workers: Evidence from the health and retirement study By Matthew J. Hill; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
  16. Optimal Life Cycle Unemployment Insurance By Michelacci, Claudio; Ruffo, Hernán
  18. Incidental Bequests: Bequest Motives and the Choice to Self-Insure Late-Life Risks By Lee M. Lockwood
  19. Stochastic Household Forecasts by Coherent Random Shares Predictions By Keilman, Nico; van Duin, Coen
  20. Does composition matter? Wage inequality and the demographic and educational structure of the labor force in Gemany By Klemm, Marcus; Weigert, Benjamin
  21. The Impact of Health Insurance Expansion on Physician Treatment Choice: Medicare Part D and Physician Prescribing By Tianyan Hu; Sandra L. Decker; Shin-Yi Chou
  22. El sistema previsional del Perú: Diagnóstico 1996-2013, proyecciones 2014-2050 y reforma By María Amparo Cruz-Saco; Juan Mendoza; Bruno Seminario
  23. Starting a rural business in an ageing society, a UK ? NL case study By Heike Delfmann
  24. Private information in life insurance, annuity and health insurance markets By Wuppermann, A.C.;
  25. Pensión proporcional y pensión universal: costo fiscal By F. Alejandro Villagómez; Gabriel Dario Ramírez
  26. How does elderly migration affect urban growth and city-size distribution in the French Riviera? By Michel Dimou; Alexandra Schaffar

  1. By: artige, LIONEL (HEC, University of Liège, B-4000 Liège, Belgium); CAVENAILE, Laurent (New York University); PESTIEAU, Pierre (HEC, University of Liège, B-4000 Liège, Belgium; Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes and compares the macroeconomic performance of defined-benefit and defined-contribution pay-as-you-go pension systems when population ages. When the fertility rate decreases or longevity rises, it is shown that a shift from defined benefit (defined total benefit or defined annuities) to defined contribution always results in higher per-capita income and life-cycle welfare at the steady state. All results are derived with general production and utility functions.
    Keywords: aging, defined benefit, defined contribution, fertility, longevity, PAYG pension
    JEL: E13 H55 J13 J26
    Date: 2014–08–19
  2. By: Manoli, Dayanand (University of Texas at Austin); Mullen, Kathleen (RAND); Wagner, Mathis (Boston College)
    Abstract: This paper exploits a combination of policy variation from multiple pension reforms in Austria and administrative data from the Austrian Social Security Database. Using the policy changes for identification, we estimate social security wealth and accrual elasticities in individuals' retirement decisions. Next, we use these elasticities to estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement decisions. Finally, we use the estimated model to examine the labor supply and welfare consequences of potential social security reforms.
    Keywords: policy variation, retirement, labor supply elasticities
    JEL: J26 H55
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Hugo Benítez-Silva; José Ignacio García-Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
    Abstract: The discussion about the need for Social Security reforms has recently resurfaced, and is expected to continue to be part of the political agenda in the near future. Our paper is a step in the direction of providing a framework for policy analysis that accounts for employment uncertainty, something that has been relatively overlooked in terms of its link with retirement decisions. In this context, we explicitly consider the participation decision of older individuals along with their decision to claim Social Security retirement benefits, using a sequential decision structure. We have numerically solved and simulated a benchmark model of the inter-temporal decision problem that individuals face in the United States. Our results show that the model is able to explain with great accuracy the strikingly high proportion of individuals who claim benefits exactly at the Early Retirement Age. The model is also able to replicate the declining labor force participation at older ages. Additionally, we discuss a number of policy experiments that suggest that individuals claiming and labor supply decisions are responsive to measures likely to be on the table for policy makers when considering the reforms of the U.S. Social Security system.
    Keywords: employment uncertainty, retirement, life-cycle models, Social Security Reform
    JEL: J14 J26 J65
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Robert Clark (North Carolina State University); Rikiya Matsukura (Nihon University); Naohiro Ogawa (Nihon University)
    Abstract: Populations throughout the developed world are aging in response to low fertility rates and increases in longevity. Delaying retirement becomes increasingly important to individuals as they must confront the need to finance more years in retirement while governments are concerned about the cost of public retirement programs and maintaining the rate of economic growth. Japan is at the leading edge of these issues as it has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates along with one of the highest life expectancies.
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Niels Vermeer; Mauro Mastrogiacomo; Arthur van Soest
    Abstract: In the policy debate on increasing the statutory retirement age, the issue has been raised to make an exception for workers with demanding occupations, since health considerations may make it unreasonable to expect them to work longer. We use unique Dutch survey data to analyze the general public's opinions on what are demanding occupations, to what extent it is justified that someone with a demanding occupation can retire earlier, and on the willingness to contribute to an earlier retirement scheme for such occupations through higher taxes. A representative sample of Dutch adults answered several questions about hypothetical persons with five different jobs. Panel data models are used to analyze the answers, accounting for confounding factors affecting the evaluations of the demanding nature of the jobs as well as their reasonable retirement age or willingness to contribute to an early retirement scheme. The Dutch public thinks that workers in demanding occupations should be able to retire earlier. A one standard deviation increase in the perceived demanding nature of an occupation translates into a one year decrease in the reasonable retirement age and a 30 to 40 percentage points increase in the willingness to contribute to an early retirement scheme for that occupation. There is some evidence that respondents whose own job is similar to the occupation they evaluate find this occupation more demanding than other respondents but respondents are also willing to contribute to early retirement of occupations that are not similar to their own.
    Keywords: Retirement age; public pensions; justification bias
    JEL: J26 J81 H55
    Date: 2014–11
  6. By: Agnese Romiti; Mariacristina Rossi
    Abstract: This paper analyses the role played by financial literacy in savings decisions and wealth decumulation. The broad evidence shows that (elderly) households do not decumulate their assets as they age, contradicting the standard life-cycle theory, which predicts that households should decumulate their assets in order to keep their consumption smooth. In particular, older people seem to be very attached to illiquid assets, such as housing wealth, which is far more difficult to liquidate and use in case of unexpected shocks and for consumption smoothing. Using the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe) survey, we try to detect whether more financial literacy brings about more optimal behaviour from a life-cycle perspective. We look at the impact of financial literacy on three different dimensions of savings decisions: an unbalanced portfolio with excessive weight assigned to illiquid assets, the optimal consumption path, and wealth decumulation. According to our findings, higher financial literacy substantially reduces the portfolio imbalance of people aged 50+ by reducing the weight of housing wealth over total net worth. In addition, higher financial literacy is responsible for a more optimal consumption path and, in particular for men, for both net worth and housing wealth decumulation.
    Keywords: Financial literacy, savings, wealth decumulation, housing, portfolio
    JEL: D14 D91 G11
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Matthew S. Rutledge; Anthony Webb
    Abstract: This paper examines conflicting assessments of whether people will have adequate retirement income to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living. The studies that it examines use data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the HRS supplement Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS). Critical components of the analysis are behavioral assumptions about household consumption patterns when children leave home and when households retire. A key limitation is that the behavioral assumptions in the different studies are based on incomplete knowledge of actual household behavior. The paper found that: A simple – assumption-free – calculation of wealth to income by age clearly indicates that households retiring in the future will be less prepared than those in the past. Studies showing that households are saving optimally hinge crucially on assumptions that people are willing to accept declining consumption as they age and that they sharply reduce their consumption when the children leave home. While other studies have found consumption does not decline early in retirement, new analysis suggests that many will be unable to maintain this pace over their full retirement. The policy implications of the findings are: Households are more likely than not to be falling short in their retirement preparedness. Such shortfalls should be taken into consideration as policymakers discuss options for reforming Social Security. To bolster retirement preparedness, policymakers may want to consider ways to encourage more private saving, such as requiring 401(k)s to adopt auto-enrollment and auto-escalation policies and to apply these policies to current workers as well as new hires.
    Date: 2014–11
  8. By: Norma Coe (University of Washington); Gopi Shah Goda (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Access to health insurance is a known determinant in the decision of when to retire. What remains unknown, however, is how much retirement behavior will change in response to the set of reforms that will be enacted in 2014 with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). These reforms include more regulation of the non-group market, subsidies to health insurance for the low-to middle-class households, and Medicaid expansions. This project examines the effect of the state-level reforms that are most similar to those included in the ACA on the timing of retirement. We find that non-group health insurance reform substantially increases the hazard of leaving the labor force. For workers aged 63, the hazards of exiting the labor force increases by 2.2 percentage points, or approximately doubling the exit hazard at that age. For workers who report themselves to be in fair or poor health – those most likely to gain access to the individual market through these regulations, we find that the exit hazard differentially increases at age 64, and the self-reported retirement hazard also increase at age 62. These changes in retirement and labor force participation also lead to a hastening of claiming Social Security at age 63.
    Keywords: Retirement, non-group health insurance
    Date: 2014–11
  9. By: Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Wunsch, Conny
    Abstract: This paper investigates the average effects of (firm-provided) workplace health promotion measures in form of the analysis of sickness absenteeism and health circles/courses on labour market out¬comes of the firms’ employees. Exploiting linked employer-employee panel data that consist of rich survey-based and administrative information on firms, workers and regions, we apply a flexible propensity score matching approach that controls for selection on observables as well as on time-constant unob¬served fac¬tors. While the effects of analysing sickness absenteeism appear to be rather limited, our results suggest that health circles/courses increase tenure and decrease the number of job changes across various age groups. A key finding is that health circles/courses strengthen the labour force attachment of elderly em¬ployees (51-60), implying potential cost savings for public transfer schemes such as unemployment or early retirement benefits.
    Keywords: analysis of sickness absenteeism; firm health policies; health circles; health courses; matching
    JEL: I10 I19 J32
    Date: 2014–07
  10. By: Berniell, Inés; de la Mata, Dolores; Machado, Matilde Pinto
    Abstract: Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of a pension reform in Argentina that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million senior women (women 60 years and over), on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. Our results imply that a 10 percentage-point increase in senior women’s income share within the couple leads to a statistically significant decrease of 10% in the probability that they are the only person in charge of household chores and to a significant increase of 11% in their husbands’ participation in household chores. Moreover, this large income shock significantly increased the probability of divorce/separation among senior women by 19%. Our results show that (permanent) transfers to senior women can have substantial effects on their situation in the household.
    Keywords: collective models; divorce; household chores; intra-household bargaining power; marital disruption; non-contributory pensions; pensions; permanent income shock; public transfers; senior women
    JEL: H55 J12 J16 J26
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Laurent Callot (VU University Amsterdam, the Tinbergen Institute and CREATES); Niels Haldrup (Aarhus University and CREATES); Malene Kallestrup Lamb (Aarhus University and CREATES)
    Abstract: The Lee and Carter (1992) model assumes that the deterministic and stochastic time series dynamics loads with identical weights when describing the development of age specific mortality rates. Effectively this means that the main characteristics of the model simplifies to a random walk model with age specific drift components. But restricting the adjustment mechanism of the stochastic and linear trend components to be identical may be a too strong simplification. In fact, the presence of a stochastic trend component may itself result from a bias induced by properly fitting the linear trend that characterizes mortality data. We find empirical evidence that this feature of the Lee-Carter model overly restricts the system dynamics and we suggest to separate the deterministic and stochastic time series components at the benefit of improved fit and forecasting performance. In fact, we find that the classical Lee-Carter model will otherwise over estimate the reduction of mortality for the younger age groups and will under estimate the reduction of mortality for the older age groups. In practice, our recommendation means that the Lee-Carter model instead of a one-factor model should be formulated as a two (or several)-factor model where one factor is deterministic and the other factors are stochastic. This feature generalizes to the range of models that extend the Lee-Carter model in various directions.
    Keywords: Mortality modelling, factor models, principal components, stochastic and deterministic trends
    JEL: C2 C23 J1 J11
    Date: 2014–11–19
  12. By: Jan de Kok; Tommy Span
    Abstract: In this study we examine whether the ageing of the Dutch labour force has had an effect on entrepreneurship rates in the recent past, and if it is likely to have an effect in the future. Because we only have data on a relatively short period of time (2001 – 2009), we focus on variation between regions instead of variation across time. The first two research questions of this study are therefore: to which extent are regional differences in business ownership rates and in start-up rates related to regional differences in the age composition of the workforce? To answer these questions, we have applied a shift-share analysis on available data on the age composition of the labour force and entrepreneurship rates for 12 Dutch provinces for the years 2001 - 2009. We find that there is indeed an age composition effect: regional deviations from the national age structure of the labour force can partly account for regional deviations from the national entrepreneurship rates. This applies for business ownership rates as well as start-up rates. The size of this age composition effect is however not very large. By combining these identified age composition effects with expected changes of the age structure of the Dutch workforce (between 2010 and 2060), we have been able to answer the third and final research question of this study, to which extent the ageing of the workforce would affect entrepreneurship rates at national level. Our results show that there is hardly any effect to be expected. This lack of impact may be due to the combination of different factors. First of all, the identified age composition effects are not very large. Secondly, the expected changes in the shares of the different age groups may not be large enough to cause large changes in the entrepreneurship rates. Finally, the changes that do occur for different age groups may counteract each other.
    Date: 2014–11–27
  13. By: Steven Venti; David A. Wise
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to draw attention to the long lasting effect of education on economic outcomes. We use the relationship between education and two routes to early retirement – the receipt of Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and the early claiming of Social Security retirement benefits – to illustrate the long-lasting influence of education. We find that for both men and women with less than a high school degree the median DI participation rate is 6.6 times the participation rate for those with a college degree or more. Similarly, men and women with less than a high school education are over 25 percentage points more likely to claim Social Security benefits early than those with a college degree or more. We focus on four critical “pathways” through which education may indirectly influence early retirement – health, employment, earnings, and the accumulation of assets. We find that for women health is the dominant pathway through which education influences DI participation. For men, the health, earnings, and wealth pathways are of roughly equal magnitude. For both men and women the principal channel through which education influences early Social Security claiming decisions is the earnings pathway. We also consider the direct effect of education that does not operate through these pathways. The direct effect of education is much greater for early claiming of Social Security benefits than for DI participation, accounting for 72 percent of the effect of education for men and 67 percent for women. For women the direct effect of education on DI participation is not statistically significant, suggesting that the total effect may be through the four pathways.
    JEL: H52 I21 J26
    Date: 2014–12
  14. By: Hernán Bejarano (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, Orange, CA); Hillard Kaplan (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, Orange, CA and University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Stephen Rassenti (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, Orange, CA)
    Abstract: We report the results of experiments where in each period of her lifetime the subject must choose how to allocate real earned income between health investment and life enjoyment in each period of a nine-period life in order to maximize aggregate life enjoyment. The key dynamic optimization challenge of the experiment to subjects derives from the fact that investments in health affect future income, but detract from current consumption. Our experimental results show that subjects were successful at reproducing the qualitative predictions of the theoretical model, investing more in health in the absence of retirement and with increasing income profiles. However, we did observe a systematic bias in health investments, being less than optimal in early periods and greater than optimal in late periods of life. We also found a significant effect due to social groupings. These results highlight the potential of lab experiments as a method to study health decisions and understand their determinants.
    Keywords: experimental economics, behavioral economics, health economics, dynamic programming
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Matthew J. Hill; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
    Abstract: We use prospective longitudinal data on newly disabled older workers to examine the effect of employer sponsorship of health insurance (ESHI) on post-onset employment and disability insurance claiming. We compare outcomes of workers with ESHI and no access to spousal coverage prior to onset with outcomes of two comparison groups: individuals with ESHI who also have access to spousal coverage and those who are covered by a spouse’s employer prior to onset. We find evidence of "employment lock" among the 20 percent of individuals whose disabilities do not impact their immediate physical capacity but are associated with high medical costs.
    Date: 2014–09
  16. By: Michelacci, Claudio; Ruffo, Hernán
    Abstract: We argue that US welfare would rise if unemployment insurance were increased for younger and decreased for older workers. This is because the young tend to lack the means to smooth consumption during unemployment and want jobs to accumulate high-return human capital. So unemployment insurance is most valuable to them, while moral hazard is mild. By calibrating a life cycle model with unemployment risk and endogenous search effort, we find that allowing unemployment replacement rates to decline with age yields sizeable welfare gains to US workers.
    Keywords: insurance; search; unemployment
    JEL: E24 H21 J64 J65
    Date: 2014–09
  17. By: Zoran Simonović, Vesna Simić, Janko Todorov (Institute of Agricultural Economics)
    Abstract: through the current legal framework, which consists of three laws: the Law on Health Insurance, the Law on Compulsory Social Insurance and the Law on Employment and Unemployment Insurance. These laws are observed in terms of the rules that are currently open. This approach is the study of these laws relies on the fact that these laws are applicable regulations in this area. The legislation in force in Serbia, in our opinion, should be subject to change and adjustment with the current legislation in force in the EU. Or should it be changed and improved.
    Keywords: health insurance of farmers, farmers' pension insurance, Serbia.
    JEL: H7 H75
    Date: 2014–04
  18. By: Lee M. Lockwood
    Abstract: Despite facing significant uncertainty about how long they will live and how much costly health care they will require, few retirees buy life annuities or long-term care insurance. Low rates of long-term care insurance coverage are often interpreted as evidence against the importance of bequest motives since failing to buy insurance exposes bequests to significant risk. In this paper, however, I find that low rates of long-term care insurance coverage, especially in combination with the slow rate at which many retirees draw down their wealth, constitute evidence in favor of bequest motives. Retirees' saving and long-term care insurance choices are highly inconsistent with standard life cycle models in which people care only about their own consumption but match well models in which bequests are luxury goods. Such bequest motives reduce the value of insurance by reducing the opportunity cost of precautionary saving. Buying insurance reduces one's need to engage in precautionary saving, which is most valuable to individuals without bequest motives who wish to consume all of their wealth. The results suggest that bequest motives significantly increase saving and significantly decrease purchases of long-term care insurance and annuities.
    JEL: D91 E21 H55
    Date: 2014–12
  19. By: Keilman, Nico (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo); van Duin, Coen (Statistics Netherland)
    Abstract: We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of the Lee-Carter model. This approach reduces the dimension of the data set by collapsing the age dimension into one scalar. As a result, the forecast task implies predicting two time series of time indices for each household position for men and women. We model these time indices as a Random Walk with Drift (RWD), and compute prediction intervals for them. Prediction intervals for random shares are simulated based on the Lee-Carter model. The random shares are combined with population numbers from an independently computed stochastic population forecast of the Netherlands. <p> Our general conclusion is that the method proposed in this paper is useful for generating errors around expected values of shares that are computed independently. In case one wishes to use this method for computing the expected values for the household shares as well, one has to include cohort effects in the Lee Carter model. This requires long time series of data.
    Keywords: Forecast; Household formation; Families; Monte Carlo; Simulation; Random shares; Single parent; The Netherlands
    JEL: C15 J10
    Date: 2014–04–14
  20. By: Klemm, Marcus; Weigert, Benjamin
    Abstract: This paper addresses the importance of compositional changes in the labor force for the development of the wage distribution. Demographic change and higher educational attainment imply a shift toward employees with more experience and/or better education. These groups are characterized by higher relative wages as well as higher within-group wage inequality. Mechanically, these compositional shifts entail a rise in wage inequality. We demonstrate this mechanism theoretically and present empirical evidence using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel from the mid 1990's to 2012. Accounting for the parallel changes in the age structure and the educational background of the labor force, the compositional effects alone can explain up to one quarter of the observed increase in aggregate wage inequality.
    Keywords: wage structure,inequality decomposition,demographic change,population aging,education,skills
    JEL: J31 D31 J11
    Date: 2014
  21. By: Tianyan Hu; Sandra L. Decker; Shin-Yi Chou
    Abstract: We test the effect of the introduction of Medicare Part D on physician prescribing behavior by using data on physician visits from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) 2002-2004 and 2006-2009 for patients aged 60-69. We use a combined DD-RD specification that is an improvement over either the difference-in-difference (DD) or regression discontinuity (RD) designs. Comparing the discrete jump in outcomes at age 65 before and after 2006, we find a 35% increase in the number of prescription drugs prescribed or continued per visit and a 55% increase in the number of generic drugs prescribed or continued, providing evidence of physician response to changes in patient out-of-pocket costs.
    JEL: I13 I18 I31
    Date: 2014–11
  22. By: María Amparo Cruz-Saco (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico); Juan Mendoza (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico); Bruno Seminario (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico)
    Abstract: El objetivo de la investigación ha sido estudiar el desempeño del sistema previsional entre 1996 y el 2013, proyectar su evolución hasta el 2050 y plantear lineamientos de una posible reforma previsional. El presente resumen tiene tres partes principales. En la primera se realiza un diagnóstico del estado de las pensiones en nuestro país tanto en el sistema privado como en el público. Este diagnóstico comprende, entre otros temas, una evaluación de los cambios en la legislación previsional de 1992 que dio origen al sistema privado, un análisis de la cobertura, las tasas de reemplazo, y las rentabilidades de los fondos previsionales. En la segunda sección, se realiza una proyección del número de jubilados, el tamaño de los fondos previsionales, la población con pensiones y la rentabilidad previsional hasta el 2050. Las proyecciones asumen tasas rápidas de crecimiento del sector moderno de la economía. La conclusión central de las dos primeras secciones es que nuestro sistema previsional es ineficiente, tiene una baja probabilidad de incrementar apreciablemente la cobertura en los siguientes 36 años, y presenta, además, un conjunto de inequidades en la asignación de los beneficios previsionales. A la luz de estas conclusiones, la tercera sección esboza unos lineamientos generales de reforma del sistema previsional en el Perú. Este documento resume los resultados de un proyecto de investigación sobre el sistema previsional en el Perú. Además de los autores del documento, el proyecto ha contado con la activa colaboración de Ana María Vidal, Pilar Contreras y Carlos Cabala.
    Keywords: Sistema, Previsional, Pensión, Pension, AFP, Perú, Reforma, Proyección, ONP, Jubilación
    JEL: D14 D90 J32
    Date: 2014–10
  23. By: Heike Delfmann
    Abstract: People have various motivations for becoming an entrepreneur. A common assumption is that entrepreneurs in deprived or remote regions are more likely to be motivated by necessity, as employment opportunities are limited and people have little to lose in starting their own business. However, demographic changes can also lead to restructuring or motivate people to start a social enterprise. A key step in gaining further insights into entrepreneurship in these areas is developing a better understanding of entrepreneurial motivations. Location decisions taken by firms would rationally include an assessment of regional conditions and developments, which raises the question: what motivates people to start a business in a rural, ageing region? And how do their motivations fit in the opportunity and necessity dimension? Rural Northumberland (UK) and rural Drenthe (NL) are both facing a declining workforce and are strongly ageing. By means of semi structured, face-to-face interviews with entrepreneurs in the two case study regions, the aim is to determine the impact of the regional context on start-up behaviour. In the Netherlands, all rural regions are relatively close to an urban centre in geographical terms and peripheral regions are well connected through infrastructure, providing them a fairly easy link to the urban centres. In England, we find more ?traditional' rural regions, more isolated with weaker links to urbanised areas. By comparing the two regions, which are quite similar on paper but very different on the urban ? rural relation, we assess to what extent the type of rurality affects the decision making process and start-up motivation.
    Keywords: ageing; rural; entrepreneurship; in-depth interviews; motivation
    JEL: M13 O18 R11
    Date: 2014–11
  24. By: Wuppermann, A.C.;
    Abstract: Economic theory predicts that private information on risks in insurance markets leads to adverse selection. To counterbalance private information insurers collect and use information on applicants to assess their risk and calculate premiums in an underwriting process. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) this paper documents that dierences in the information used in underwriting across life insurance, annuity and health insurance markets attenuate private information to dierent extents. The results are in line with - and might help to reconcile - the mixed empirical evidence on adverse selection across these markets.
    Keywords: ELSA; private information; health-related risks; insurance; biomarkers;
    JEL: D82 I13
    Date: 2014–08
  25. By: F. Alejandro Villagómez; Gabriel Dario Ramírez (Division of Economics, CIDE)
    Abstract: El Gobierno Federal en México ha implementado el otorgamiento de una transferencia no contributiva bajo el programa "Pensión Universal", para todos aquellos trabajadores que no obtendrán una pensión por parte de los Programas Contributivos del Sistema de Ahorro para el Retiro (SAR), como una medida que permita incrementar el acceso de la población a una pensión. En este documento se estiman los costos de dicho programa, a través de proyectar la población beneficiaria y los montos transferidos para los periodos 2014-2018 y 2014-2050. Además, se discute la implementación de una "Pensión Proporcional" que permite disminuir el costo fiscal de la "Pensión Universal". De acuerdo con los resultados, el costo fiscal de la "Pensión Universal" para el periodo 2014-2050 ascienden a 16.8% del PIB del 2014. En contraste, si se implementa la "Pensión Proporcional" se logra una disminución de los costos fiscales del 9.3% y un incremento del monto de pensión promedio de 12.8%.
    JEL: H55 J14
    Date: 2014–08
  26. By: Michel Dimou; Alexandra Schaffar
    Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to understand the effects of regional migration of households over city-size distribution, urban growth and real estate prices. The paper aims to study regional migration of elderly households, mainly those over 50, in France during the last 20 years, by emphasizing on the consequences of migration from households that quit their initial regions in order to settle in the French Riviera where weather is better and climate and natural amenities are higher. Most studies on cities' demographics focus on migration of young workers and households seeking better wages and urban amenities. However, in some cases, such as in Arizona and Florida in the US or in the French Riviera in Europe, urban demographical growth is driven mostly by elderly settlement, not interested in wages differentials but in climate amenities and real-estate prices differentials. Previous work on the way climate affects migration has been delivered from Glaeser and Tobio (2007), Rappaport (2007) and Chesire and Magrini (2009), for US and Europe. However none of these studies has specifically focused on elderly migration. Economic literature draws back to seminal work from Graves (1979) who delivered the first life-cycle empirical analysis of migration with regards to climate. The paper focuses on elderly migration in France. It aims to understand the way this migration flows affect urban growth patterns in the French Mediterranean Coast, from Marseille to Nice. The paper also focuses on the consequences of such migrations on real-estate prices and the eviction of young households' migration, mainly because of the fact that it becomes impossible for them to settle in such high-priced region. The paper uses 1995-2010 data both from the French National Statistic Institute (INSEE) and from the PERVAL Agency where all real-estate sales are registered. From a methodological point of view, it delivers three types of models: rank-size models (Ibragimov and Gabaix, 2011), urban growth models (Schaffar and Dimou, 2011) and real-estate prices' analysis that takes into account spatial autocorrelation effects (Basile and al, 2013).
    Keywords: Migration; urban growth; city-size distribution.
    Date: 2014–11

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