nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2014‒11‒12
four papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Labour market effects of job displacement for prime-age and older workers By Anja Deelen; Marloes de Graaf-Zijl; Wiljan van den Berge
  2. Interest rates and endogenous population growth: joint age-dependent dynamics By Brito, Paulo
  3. Income receipt and mortality - evidence from Swedish public sector employees By Andersson, Elvira; Lundborg, Petter; Vikström, Johan
  4. An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas By Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.; Ramirez, David A.; Walke, Adam G.

  1. By: Anja Deelen; Marloes de Graaf-Zijl; Wiljan van den Berge
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of firm closures for prime-age and older workers. Administrative data on the Dutch labour force are used to follow a sample of Dutch workers who lost their jobs due to firm closures in the period 2000 - 2009. Applying difference-in-difference techniques and using a control group created by exact matching, we find that involuntary job loss has a severe impact on older workers' labour market prospects. Finding a new job is relatively difficult, and wage cuts are more substantial once they find a new job. The differences between prime-age and older workers are partly mediated by tenure and industry effects. Not only do older workers on average have longer job tenures than prime-age workers, older workers with longer job tenures experience more negative effects of displacement as well. For prime-age workers tenure in the job before displacement makes less of a difference for their outcomes after displacement. Likewise, displaced older workers are more sensitive to the situation in the local labour market in the industry from which they are displaced. Moreover, older workers experience stronger negative effects of changing industries after displacement on their post-displacement wages.
    JEL: J14 J63 J65
    Date: 2014–09
  2. By: Brito, Paulo
    Abstract: This paper presents a uncertain-lifetime overlapping-generations continuous time model for an Arrow-Debreu economy with endogenous fertility, in which age-dependent variables are explicitly introduced. The general equilibrium paths for the discount factor and newborns are derived from a system of two coupled forward-backward integral equations. The forward mechanism is related to aggregation between cohorts and the backward mechanism to life-cycle decisions. We study changes in the age-dependent profiles of age-dependent distributions for productivity and time use. We show that high maximum ages of productivity and child-rearing fitness increase the long run interest and growth rates, and low maximum ages can lead to asset pricing bubbles and negative population growth rates.
    Keywords: OLG, endogenous fertility, Arrow-Debreu, integral equations
    JEL: C6 E2 J1
    Date: 2014–03–27
  3. By: Andersson, Elvira (Lund University); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Vikström, Johan (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the short-run effect of salary receipt on mortality among Swedish public sector employees. By using data on variation in paydays across work-places, we completely control for mortality patterns related to, for example, public holidays and other special days or events coinciding with paydays and for general within-month and within-week mortality patterns. We find a dramatic increase in mortality on the day salaries arrive. The increase is especially pronounced for younger workers and for deaths due to activity-related causes such as heart conditions and strokes. Additionally, the effect is entirely driven by an increase in mortality among low income individuals, who are more likely to experience liquidity constraints. All things considered, our results suggest that an increase in general economic activity on salary receipt is an important cause of the excess mortality.
    Keywords: Income; mortality; health; consumption; liquidity constraints; permanent income hypothesis
    JEL: D91 H31 H55 I10 I12 I38
    Date: 2014–08–31
  4. By: Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.; Ramirez, David A.; Walke, Adam G.
    Abstract: This study models and forecasts the components of population growth in Arkansas through 2017. A structural econometric model is developed and used to generate ex-ante forecasts. The model includes equations for births, deaths, and net migration. These three variables, in combination with population in the previous year, are used to estimate current-year population. Births and deaths are found to contain strong inertial components and to follow national demographic trends. Net migration also contains an inertial component and is affected by labor market conditions in Arkansas relative to those of the United States as a whole. One contribution of the paper is the selection of model functional form based upon deviance information criterion. Furthermore, results of out of sample simulations indicate that the modeling approach employed can potentially handle both the cyclical and the structural factors that typically affect regional population change. The results shed light on demographic dynamics in a relatively understudied region of the United States.
    Keywords: Population Economics, Regional Economics, Applied Econometrics
    JEL: C53 J11 R11
    Date: 2013–08–11

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