nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2014‒10‒17
ten papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Unhealthy Retirement? By Fabrizio Mazzonna; Franco Peracchi
  2. Notional Defined Contribution Accounts: Application to Portugal By Filipe Aleman Serrano
  3. Segmented Labour Market and Private PEnsion Decisions By Bilge ÖZTÜRK; Renginar DAYANGAÇ
  4. Policy Risk in Action: Pension Reforms and Social Security Wealth in Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia By Juraj KOPECSNI; Libor DUSEK
  5. Estimation of households’ preferences for reforms in employee public pension plan in Japan(in Japanese) By Tomoki KITAMURA; Kunio NAKASHIMA
  6. Quantifying the Costs of Investment Limits for Chilean Pension Funds By Romulo CHUMACERO; Solange BERSTEIN
  7. Welfare Effects of Alternative Pension Reforms: Assessing the Transition Costs for French Socio-Occupational Groups By HENIN P.Y.; WEITZENBLUM Th.
  8. Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis By Patrick GEORGES; Marcel MERETTE
  9. Aging and the Regional Economy: Simulation Results from the Chicago CGE Model By Geoffrey J.D. HEWINGS; Seryoung PARK
  10. A joint longitudinal and survival model with health care usage for insured elderly By Xavier Piulachs; Ramon Alemany; Montserrat Guillen

  1. By: Fabrizio Mazzonna (University of Lugano and MEA); Franco Peracchi (University of Rome "Tor Vergata" and EIEF)
    Abstract: We investigate the causal effect of retirement on health and cognitive abilities by exploiting the panel dimension of the first two waves of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and the variation between and within European countries in old age retirement rules. We show evidence of substantial heterogeneity in the effect of retirement across occupational groups. In particular, we find that retirement increases the age-related decline of health and cognitive abilities for most workers. On the other hand, we find evidence of a positive immediate effect of retirement for those employed in highly physically demanding jobs.
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Filipe Aleman Serrano (CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora)
    Abstract: The amount of implicit debt is quantified in relation to the contributive regime that supports the old age pension scheme of the Portuguese Social Security and the notional defined contribution accounts system concept as a solution of financial sustainability of that regime is presented, without the need for altering the overall tax rules. In the management of the transition from a public defined benefit pension scheme to a defined contribution plan a series of theoretical principles are presented, namely, the data treatment, the acquired rights, the demographic deficits, benefits not financed and the distinct speed of conversion in the processes of such nature. The Swedish public pension system and its automatic balancing mechanism are characterized. Their underlying principles are applied to the Portuguese reality, essaying different speeds of conversion and distinct ways of computing the acquired rights. The results of the implicit debt, replacement rates, expenses and financial results of the new regimes are presented, based on a set of demographic and economic assumptions, provided by benchmark entities.
    Keywords: Notional defined contributions accounts; Automatic balancing mechanism; Replacement rates; Implicit debt; Swedish Public Pension system.
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Bilge ÖZTÜRK; Renginar DAYANGAÇ
  4. By: Juraj KOPECSNI; Libor DUSEK
  5. By: Tomoki KITAMURA; Kunio NAKASHIMA
    Abstract: We investigated households’ preferences for reforms in employee public pension plan in Japan using a choice experiment. We considered five policy approaches: increasing contribution rate, decreasing pension benefit, increasing pension age, increasing the variation in pension benefit by allowing more equity investments, and increasing consumption tax. We found that households required an increase (1) of JPY 19,810 in the monthly pension benefit for accepting a one-year increase in pension age; (2) of JPY 4,510 for a 1% increase in contribution rate; and (3) of JPY 3,530 for a 1% increase in consumption tax. These results indicate that among the above policy approaches, an increase in pension age is the most unpopular. An increase in consumer tax is preferred over an increase in contribution rate. In addition, households are willing to lower the monthly benefit by JPY 2,270 for a 1% increase in risk of benefit. This indicates that households are willing to increase investment risk—such as by allowing more equity investments—to avoid immediate increases in contribution rate and consumption tax. As for the difference between the participants’ and beneficiaries’ preferences, we found that while participants required an increase of JPY 5,630 in the monthly benefit for accepting a 1% increase in consumption tax, beneficiaries showed no preference. This indicates that beneficiaries are tolerant of increased consumption tax.
    Date: 2013–06
  6. By: Romulo CHUMACERO; Solange BERSTEIN
  8. By: Patrick GEORGES; Marcel MERETTE
  9. By: Geoffrey J.D. HEWINGS; Seryoung PARK
  10. By: Xavier Piulachs (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Ramon Alemany (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Montserrat Guillen (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona)
    Abstract: We study longevity and usage of medical resources of a sample of individuals aged 65 years or more who are covered by a private insurance policy. A longitudinal analysis is presented, where the yearly cumulative number of medical coverage requests by each subject characterizes insurance intensity of care until death. We confirm that there is a significant correlation between the longitudinal data on usage level and the survival time processes. We obtain dynamic estimations of event probabilities and we exploit the potential of joint models for personalized survival curve adjustment.
    Keywords: joint modeling, health insurance, personalized survival probability, longitudinal data
    Date: 2014–08

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