nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2013‒11‒09
three papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a time-series approach By Emanuele Felice; Josep Pujol Andreu
  2. Il Pay-as-You-Go in Europa attraverso i Programmi di Stabilità. Le risorse che gli attivi/occupati dovranno mettere a disposizione per finanziare il welfare By SALERNO, Nicola Carmine
  3. La demografia in Europa e in Us. Uno sguardo alle proiezioni a medio-lungo termine By SALERNO, Nicola Carmine

  1. By: Emanuele Felice (Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Josep Pujol Andreu (Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.
    Keywords: Italy, Spain, GDP, life expectancy, unified growth theory, demographic transition
    JEL: N13 N14 N33 N34 O47 O52
    Date: 2013–11
  2. By: SALERNO, Nicola Carmine
    Abstract: Mid-long term projections of the Stability Programs (SP) are elaborated to simulate the burden each active citizen or each worker will have to bear for financing, via pay-as-you-go, public health care provisions and public pensions. It is worth mentioning that projections in the (SP) are those developed by the Ageing Working Group (Awg), a task force Ecofin created in purpose to investigate the effects of population ageing on the sustainability of public finances across Europe. This paper is self standing but, at the same time, is part of the broader project "Present and Future of PayGo in Italy, Europe and Us". All chapters will be collected in a book by Nicola C. Salerno.
    Keywords: paygo; pay-as-you-go; pay as you go; multipillar; multipillar system; accumulation; pension fund; pension funds; health care; ltc; long term care; long-term care; sustainability, burden; paygo burden; workers; employed; active; sistema multipilastro; diversificazione multipilastro; diversifying financing; diversifying welfare institutions; structural reforms; reforming welfare; welfare reforming; awg; ageing working group; ecofin; European Commission; IMF; OECD; projections; long term projections; mid-long term; simulations; Stability Program; Stability Programs; adequacy; accountability; transparency; demography; dependency
    JEL: E60 H0 H22 H30 H31 H32 H50 H51 H53 H55 H60 H68 I13 J10 J11
    Date: 2013–11–04
  3. By: SALERNO, Nicola Carmine
    Abstract: The demographic database of Eurostat and of Us Census of Bureau are explored and the main facts are extracted and described. This paper is completely self-standing but is also part of a more general analysis dedicated to the functioning and sustainability of pay-as-you-go to finance the welfare system in developed countries. Thsi paper constitutes Chapert 2.. Chapter 1. has been already posted on MPRA. Other chapters follow.
    Keywords: paygo; pay-as-you-go; health care; pensions; welfare institutions; demography; ageing; sustainability; multipillar; Europe; Us; Eurostat; Us Census Bureau; long-term; mid-long term; dependency ratio; old dependency ratio; Awg; Ecofin; Oecd; structural reform; rebalancing welfare system; burden; burden on active cohorts; burden of working cohorts; growth; endogenous growth; endogenous disincentives; simulations; young; young workers; productivity; accumulation
    JEL: D6 D60 D61 H00 H10 H11 H20 H22 H30 H31 H32 H50 H51 H53 H55 H60 H68 H70 H75 J0 J01 J08 J1 J11 J14 J18
    Date: 2013–10–29

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