nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2013‒10‒25
seven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy By Lees, Kirdan
  2. Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc By Loumrhari, Ghizlan
  3. Creative Ageing Policy in Regional Development By Klimczuk, Andrzej
  4. Hi ho silver lining? What firms need to think about as New Zealand ages By Ballingall, John; Lees, Kirdan; Stephenson, John
  5. The Rise of Life Expectancy and Economic Growth in the 20th Century By Hansen, Casper Worm; Lønstrup, Lars
  6. Strategic Responses on Population Ageing in Regional Policy By Andrzej, Klimczuk
  7. When do adults learn? A cohort analysis of adult education in Europe By Beblavý, Miroslav; Thum, Anna-Elisabeth; Potjagailo, Galina

  1. By: Lees, Kirdan (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: New Zealand is ageing. The number of old people will increase three-fold and will soon comprise a very large segment of society. Ageing will shrink the labour supply relative to the size of the population and the existing supply of capital. That has implications for wages and interest rates. Increased longevity should also affect savings decisions and labour force participation. In this paper we model these changes to put some numbers on their impact. While the population is ageing gradually, the impact on the mix of labour and capital that fuels the economy will be profound.
    Keywords: ageing; New Zealand; demographics; labour force participation
    JEL: J11 J14
    Date: 2013–03–01
  2. By: Loumrhari, Ghizlan
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate empirically the relationship between population aging begins in Morocco and private savings. To do this, we use an overlapping generations model (OLG) and annual data from 1980 to 2010. Econometric estimates show that if the increase in the dependency ratio negatively affects the growth rate of savings, as predicted by the lifecycle theory, longevity to the contrary tends to stimulate the same savings. However, it seems that the first effect outweighs the second. Economic policies to promote private savings and incentives for households to have more children are needed to meet the challenge of severe aging population which will face Morocco in the coming decades.
    Keywords: Population aging, private saving, OLG model
    JEL: C13 E21 J11
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: Klimczuk, Andrzej
    Abstract: The shaping of creative economy is particularly important for development of cities and regions. This process can be analyzed in conjunction with changes in work and leisure time and their place in the human life cycle. This article aims to approximate the main features of: contemporary position of elderly people, creative ageing policy, benefits from seniors creativity and controversies linked to this concept. This essay also indicates the patterns of recommendations and activities in development of services for older people which may be the subject of further in-depth research. These examples exist in: (1) documents and strategic programs, (2) the activities of network organizations and (3) the activities of urban cultural and artistic institutions.
    Keywords: creative capital, creative economy, silver economy, arts and ageing, cultural and artistic institutions, creative ageing policy, intergenerational policy
    JEL: J14 Z13 Z18
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Ballingall, John (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Lees, Kirdan (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Stephenson, John (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: This working paper evidences the key trends that should be expected to result from an ageing population. It looks at which kinds of industries will fall and which will flourish. It discusses the kinds of trends we might expect in terms of consumer demand and it touches on what firms should be thinking about if they want to manage commercial risks from an ageing population.
    Keywords: New Zealand; ageing; industry
    JEL: J10
    Date: 2013–03–26
  5. By: Hansen, Casper Worm (Department of Economics and Business); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This study documents that the growth in life expectancy over the 20th century decreased per capita GDP growth and increased population growth. By exploiting significant advances in medical technologies, starting to diffuse in the 1940s, the analysis establishes that countries with higher levels of infectious-disease mortality prior to the medical breakthrough experienced higher growth rates in life expectancy and population size, and lower growth rates in per capita GDP in the time after the medical breakthroughs. These findings are robust to the inclusion of initial life expectancy and initial GDP per capita. The evidence presented here therefore complements the conclusions inferred in the research by Acemoglu and Johnson (2007).
    Keywords: Life expectancy; health shock; long-run economic growth
    JEL: I10 J11 O40
    Date: 2013–10–16
  6. By: Andrzej, Klimczuk
    Abstract: Population ageing is one of the key processes affecting the development of European Union countries. The aim of this paper is an indication of the possibility of collective action against this challenge at the regional level. Article describe assumptions and recommendations for strategic management which taking into account the cooperation of entities from public sector (local governments), market sector (business) and social sector (NGOs). Closer analyses will be conducted on two examples of initiatives from European Union: the Regions for All Ages programme and network organization SEN@ER - Silver Economy Network of European Regions. The summary will indicate possible directions of further research.
    Keywords: regional and local development, strategic management, cross-sector cooperation, silver economy
    JEL: J14 P25 Z18
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Beblavý, Miroslav; Thum, Anna-Elisabeth; Potjagailo, Galina
    Abstract: Adult learning is seen as a key factor for enhancing employment, innovation and growth, and it should concern all age cohorts. The aim of this paper is to understand the points in the life cycle at which adult learning takes place and whether it leads to reaching a medium or high level of educational attainment. To this end we perform a synthetic panel analysis of adult learning for cohorts aged 25 to 64 in 27 European countries using the European Labour Force Survey. We find, as previous results suggest, that a rise in educational attainment as well as participation in education and training happens mostly at the age range of 25-29. However, investment across the life cycle by cohorts older than 25 still occurs: in most countries in our sample, participation in education and training as well as educational attainment increases observably across all cohorts. We also find that the decline with age slows down or is even reversed for older cohorts, for both participation in education and educational attainment. Finally, we can identify a Nordic model in which adult learning is achieved through participation in education and training, a Central European model in which adult learning occurs in the form of increasing educational attainment and a liberal model in which both approaches to adult learning are observable.
    Date: 2013–05

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