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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the theory of optimal aging and death (Dalgaard and Strulik, 2010, 2013) towards uncertain death. Specifically, it is assumed that at any age the probability to survive depends on the number of health deficits accumulated. At the expense of less analytical tractability the model provides a formal description of aging as conceptualized in modern biology, i.e. as an inherently stochastic process according to which the timing of death of a person is not determined by his or her age but by the number of accumulated health deficits. The stochastic model basically confirms the earlier deterministic model with respect to its predictions on the association between income and life-expectancy across countries. -- |
| Keywords: | Aging,Longevity,Health,Savings,Preston Curve |
| JEL: | D91 J17 J26 I12 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:160&r=age |
| By: | Malene Kallestrup-Lamb (Aarhus University and CREATES); Anders Bredahl Kock (Aarhus University and CREATES); Johannes Tang Kristensen (Aarhus University and CREATES) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Danish register data to explain the retirement decision of workers in 1990 and 1998.Many variables might be conjectured to influence this decision such as demographic, socio-economic, financially and health related variables as well as all the same factors for the spouse in case the individual is married. In total we have access to 399 individual specific variables that all could potentially impact the retirement decision.We use variants of the Lasso and the adaptive Lasso applied to logistic regression in order to uncover determinants of the retirement decision. To the best of our knowledge this is the first application of these estimators in microeconometrics to a problem of this type and scale. Furthermore, we investigate whether the factors influencing the retirement decision are stable over time, gender and marital status. It is found that this is the case for core variables such as age, income, wealth and general health. We also point out themost important differences between these groups and explain why these might be present. |
| Keywords: | Retirement, Register data, High-dimensional data, Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, Oracle property, Logistic regression |
| JEL: | C01 C25 J0 J14 J62 |
| Date: | 2013–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2013-21&r=age |
| By: | Ana Amélia Camarano |
| Abstract: | O artigo discute avanços e contradições de algumas ações propostas pelo Estatuto do Idoso, considerando que, em 2013, este completará dez anos. Tem como objetivo principal regular os direitos das pessoas idosas em múltiplas esferas e dimensões. Apresenta em uma única e ampla peça legal muitas das leis e políticas previamente aprovadas. Incorpora novos elementos e enfoques, dando um tratamento integral ao estabelecimento de medidas que visam proporcionar o bem-estar dos idosos, com uma visão de longo prazo. A essência do Estatuto está nas normas gerais que dispõem sobre a “proteção integral” aos idosos. Afirma que estes gozam de todos os direitos inerentes à pessoa humana e que o envelhecimento é um direito personalíssimo e a sua proteção, um direito social. Os principais direitos estabelecidos são: direito à vida, à proteção, à saúde, ao trabalho, à previdência social, à educação, à cultura, ao lazer, à moradia e ao voto. Muito embora as leis aprovadas no estatuto signifiquem grandes avanços no sentido de políticas sociais de inclusão dos idosos, não foram estabelecidas prioridades para a sua implementação nem fontes para o seu financiamento. Por isso, os custos de algumas das medidas propostas estão sendo divididos com a sociedade, o que pode ameaçar a solidariedade intergeracional. Sugerem-se algumas mudanças no Estatuto do Idoso visando adequá-lo à nova realidade demográfica e social, tendo como parâmetro o princípio básico do Plano de Madri. Dentre elas, citam-se: a mudança no limite inferior da idade que define a população idosa de 60 para 65 anos; o estabelecimento de fontes de financiamento para cada medida proposta; medidas que ajudem a família a cuidar do idoso dependente, tanto no domicílio quanto no hospital; e a inclusão nos serviços de saúde de ações que possam promover uma morte digna para aqueles que se encontram acometidos por uma doença terminal. This article discusses advances and contradictions of some proposed actions by Elder’s Bill of Rights. This Bill was approved in 2003. Its main objective is to regulate the rights of older people in multiple spheres and dimensions. It gathers in a single document many of the bills and policies previously passed. It incorporates new elements, looking to establish measures to provide the welfare of the elderly in the long run. The essence of the Bill is the general rules which provide for the ‘full protection’for the elderly. It sets that they should have all the rights inherent to the human beings and that aging is a highly personal right and their protection a social right. The main established rights are: the right to life, protection, health, labor, social security, social assistance, education, culture, leisure, housing and voting. Although the actions proposed mean great advances towards social inclusion of the elderly, it has not been established priorities for their implementation and nor sources for their founding. Therefore, the costs of some of the proposed measures are being shared with the society, which could threaten intergenerational solidarity. It is suggested some changes in the Bill in order to adapt it to demographic and social changes, having as parameter the basic principle of the Madrid Plan. They are: changes in the lower limit of the age that defines elderly population, from 60 to 65 years, the establishment of funding sources for each proposed action, help for families to take care of the dependent elderly, both at home and in the hospital. It also considers the need of the health services to offer actions that can promote a dignified death for those who are suffering from a terminal illness. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1840&r=age |
| By: | Wang, Xinxin; Chen, Kevin; Huang, Zuhui |
| Abstract: | Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging issue throughout the developing world, and especially in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the economic and distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using the integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with top-down behavioral micro-simulation. The results show that the population aging slow down China’s economy growth rate due to the exhausted of demographic dividend with high cost of labor force. The consequences from the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact to the reduction of poverty while it is positive as refers to the equality during the process of demographic transition. The average age within a household has a noticeable contribution to total inequality. These findings suggest that measures for stimulating the second demographic dividend should be carried out to promote the economic growth as well as the reduction of poverty. The inequality within the same household groups while with different household age should be put more emphasize on. What’s more, the social pension system should be improved, especially in rural China |
| Keywords: | Demographic Transition, Economic Growth, Income Distribution, CGE model, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea13:151276&r=age |
| By: | Tatyana Koreshkova (Concordia University); Karen Kopecky (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the joint effects of social security and Medicaid on labor supply, savings, economic inequality, and welfare in an environment with idiosyncratic risk in labor earnings, health expenses, and survival. The model features households consisting males and females; a progressive social security system which provides insurance against lifetime earnings, health expense, survival and spousal death risks; and a means-tested social insurance system that proxies for the US Medicaid program. We show that the annuity role of social security benefits entails important welfare gains in the presence of health expense risk and Medicaid. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed012:967&r=age |
| By: | Fernando Ferreira Calazans; Marcelo Abi-Ramia Caetano |
| Abstract: | Após abordar a evolução das instituições da política previdenciária brasileira e apontar o arcabouço que disciplina a atividade regulatória dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS) que entraram em vigor com a Lei no 9.717/1998 e a Emenda Constitucional no 20/1998, este artigo analisa o sistema regulatório que acomoda a gestão dos RPPS e registra apontamentos sobre a realidade do setor. Como resultado, verificou-se que as atribuições dos RPPS exigem gestão eficiente, transparente, democrática e responsiva, de modo a assegurar a preservação do equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial. Em conclusão, diante da grande quantidade de RPPS e da dimensão territorial do país, propõe-se a instituição de instrumentos regulatórios que visem ao incentivo e à disseminação da informação e do conhecimento, bem como privilegiem ferramentas de autorregulação e de controle social em complementação aos atuais mecanismos de constrangimento e sanção promovidos pela União, como forma de buscar uma coordenação mais efetiva da gestão dos RPPS. This paper analyses the regulation on public pensions created by the Law 9.717/1998 and the Constitutional Amendment 20/1998 and the current reality on public pension’s regulation. It has been verified that public pensions demand a management that should be efficient, transparent, and democratic and should focuses on the actuarial and financial equilibrium. We propose the creation of regulation instruments which aims at the dissemination of information, auto regulation and social control which could complement the running mechanisms of incentives and disincentives promoted by the federal government due to the great quantity of public pension’s schemes and the dimension of the Brazilian territory. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1838&r=age |