nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2012‒03‒28
six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Social Security Generosity, Budgetary Deficits and Reforms in North Cyprus By Hasan U. Altiok; Glenn Jenkins
  2. El financiamiento de la seguridad social en el Uruguay (1896-2008): una aproximación a su análisis en el largo plazo By Ulises García Repetto
  3. Life Expectancy, Labor Supply, and Long-Run Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence By Strulik, Holger; Werner, Katharina
  4. Intergenerational Voter Preference Survey - Preliminary Results By Aoki, Reiko; Vaithianathan, Rhema
  5. The Dynamics of Homeownership Among the 50+ in Europe By Angelini, Viola; Brugiavini, Agar; Weber, Guglielmo
  6. Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure By Mitsuru Katagiri

  1. By: Hasan U. Altiok (Eastern Mediterranean University, Cyprus); Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, Cyprus)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the fiscal burden of the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Social Insurance Pension System that was closed in 2008 to new members, and analyzes the appropriateness of the 2008 reforms that introduced the new Social Security Pension System in the TRNC. To calculate the overall deficit, estimates are made from the difference between the present values of future contributions and the pension benefits. The magnitude of the unfunded cost makes any marginal policy reform ineffective in eliminating the excessive fiscal burden on the current and future taxpayers for the next three decades. Major structural reforms will be required.
    Keywords: pay-as-you-go, social insurance, social security, pension liabilities, implicit pension debt, pension indexing
    JEL: H55 H68
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: Ulises García Repetto (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This paper presents an estimation of the revenues of the Uruguayan pension system, its financial situation and itsimpact on the Central Government finances between 1896 and 2008. The revenues and expenditures of the Social Security Bank (wich covers the retirement funds for workers of the Civil Service and Public Schools, Industry and Commerce, Rural and Domestic)are discussed. The paper also considers the public retirement funds directly paid by the State (for military and policy personnel)and others non public retirement funds (workers of the banking system, Notaries, University Professionals). We study the use of financial instruments, the evolution of the rights garanted to the beneficiaries and the various crises that affected the system that imposed a heavy burden on the finances of the central government. We also present an overview of the institutional process to organize the system and the institutional arrangements arrived at in different moments to salve the problems that emerged in terms of retirement and pension payments.
    Keywords: social security, financial balances, crisis, financial assistance
    JEL: N26 H55
    Date: 2011–11
  3. By: Strulik, Holger; Werner, Katharina
    Abstract: We set up a three-period overlapping generation model in which young individuals allocate their time to schooling and work, healthy middle aged individuals allocate their time to leisure and work and their income to consumption and savings for retirement, and old age individuals live off their savings. The three period setup allows us to distinguish between longevity and active life expectancy (i.e. the expected length of period 1 and 2). We show that individuals optimally respond to a longer active life by educating more and, if the labor supply elasticity is high enough, by supplying less labor. We calibrate the model to US data and show that the historical evolution of increasing education and declining labor supply can be explained as an optimal response to increasing active life expectancy. We integrate the theory into a unified growth model and reestablish increasing life expectancy as an engine of long-run economic development.
    Keywords: longevity, active life expectancy, education, hours worked, economic growth
    JEL: E20 I25 J22 O10 O40
    Date: 2012–03
  4. By: Aoki, Reiko; Vaithianathan, Rhema
    Abstract: We present results from a survey conducted in December 2011, in order to see if introduction of Demeny voting system will have the desired have effect of addressing gerentocracy. We have identified several facts from the survey that provides a positive answer to this question. We found that there is substantial difference of policy preference between voters with young children and those without, either because they have only older children or they have not children. When proxy votes (children’s votes) and their policy preferences are taken into account, the Demeny Voting Block ( voters with children + children)’s policy preferences of childrearing and education (employment is not as important) is different from non-Demeny Voting Block for whom pension and employment are priorities. However we found that party preference does not differ as starkly. This may be because the current electorate is already dominated by older voters, the all parties cater to them. Parties do not identify themselves with any policies in particular. This suggests that when Demeny voting system is introduced, party manifestos will be the first to change.
    Date: 2012–02
  5. By: Angelini, Viola; Brugiavini, Agar; Weber, Guglielmo
    Abstract: We use life history data covering households in thirteen European countries to analyse residential moves past age 50. We observe four types of moves: renting to owning, owning to renting, trading up or trading down for home-owners. We find that in the younger group (aged 50-64) trading up and purchase decisions prevail; in the older group (65+), trading down and selling are more common. Overall, moves are rare, particularly in Southern European countries. Most moves are driven by changes in household composition (divorce, widowhood, nest-leaving by children), but economic factors play a role: low income households who are house-rich and cash-poor are more likely to sell their home late in life.
    Keywords: housing; life-cycle
    JEL: D19 E21
    Date: 2012–03
  6. By: Mitsuru Katagiri (Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: In this paper I investigate the effects of changes in demand structure caused by population aging on the Japanese economy using a multi-sector new Keynesian model with job creation/destruction. I consider upward revisions in forecast for the speed of Japanese population aging as unexpected shocks to its demand structure. I find that the shocks caused around 0.3 percent point deflationary pressure on year-to-year inflation, 0.3 to 0.4 percent point increase in unemployment rates, and 1.8 percent point decrease in real GDP from the early 1990s to the 2000s in Japan. I also find that the repetition of such upward revisions made those effects look more persistent.
    Keywords: Population Aging, Matching, Productivity, Deflation
    JEL: E24 E31 J11 J64
    Date: 2012–03

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