nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2011‒07‒27
twelve papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Longevity, Life-cycle Behavior and Pension Reform By Peter Haan; Victoria Prowse
  2. Does raising the retirement age increase employment of older workers? By Stefan Staubli; Josef Zweimüller
  3. Benefit Generosity and the Income Effect on Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence By Danzer, Alexander M.
  4. A simple model of aggregate pension expenditure By Angel de la Fuente
  5. Job Quality and Employment of Older People in Europe By Rudolf Winter-Ebmer; Mario Schnalzenberger; Nicole Schneeweis; Martina Zweimüller
  6. Longevity Risk in Latin America By Eduardo Fuentes Corripio
  7. Future Skill Shortages in the U.S. Economy? By David Neumark; Hans P. Johnson; Marisol Cuellar Mejia
  8. Health Inequality over the Life-Cycle By Timothy Halliday
  9. Young-in Old-out: a new evaluation By Michela Bia; Pierre-Jean Messe; Roberto Leombruni
  10. On a Need for a Comprehensive Panel Data on the Elderly in Japan (Japanese) By ICHIMURA Hidehiko
  11. Low Fertility, Aging Population, and Economic Growth (Japanese) By YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi
  12. The Effect of an Acute Health Shock on Work Behavior: Evidence from Different Health Care Regimes By Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Larsen, Mona

  1. By: Peter Haan; Victoria Prowse
    Abstract: How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this pressing open question in public finance, we estimate a life-cycle model in which the optimal employment, retirement and consumption decisions of forward-looking individuals depend, inter alia, on life expectancy and the design of the public pension system. We calculate that, in the case of Germany, the fiscal consequences of the 6.4 year increase in age 65 life expectancy anticipated to occur over the 40 years that separate the 1942 and 1982 birth cohorts can be offset by either an increase of 4.34 years in the full pensionable age or a cut of 37.7% in the per-year value of public pension benefits. Of these two distinct policy approaches to coping with the fiscal consequences of improving longevity, increasing the full pensionable age generates the largest responses in labor supply and retirement behavior.
    Keywords: Life expectancy, public pension reform, retirement, employment, life-cycle models, consumption, tax and transfer system
    JEL: D91 J11 J22 J26 J64
    Date: 2011
  2. By: Stefan Staubli; Josef Zweimüller
    Abstract: This paper studies how an increase in the minimum retirement age affects the labor market behavior of older workers. Between 2000 and 2006 the Austrian government gradually increased the early retirement age from 60 to 62.2 for men and from 55 to 57.2 for women. Using administrative data on the universe of Austrian private-sector employees, the results from the empirical analysis suggest that this policy change reduced retirement by 19 percentage points among affected men and by 25 percentage points among affected women. The decline in retirement was accompanied by a sizeable increase in employment of 7 percentage points among men and 10 percentage points among women, but had also a important spillover effects into the unemployment insurance program. Specifically, the unemployment rate increased by 10 percentage points among men and 11 percentage points among women. In contrast, the policy change had only a small impact on the share of individuals claiming disability or partial retirement benefits.
    Keywords: Early retirement, retirement age, labor supply, policy reform
    JEL: J14 J26
    Date: 2011–07
  3. By: Danzer, Alexander M.
    Abstract: This paper uses an unanticipated, exogenous doubling of the legal minimum pension in Ukraine as a unique quasi-experiment to evaluate the income effect on various aspects of labor supply among the elderly. In contrast to previous studies, the unusually simple pension eligibility rule allows estimating a pure causal income effect. Applying difference-indifferences and regression discontinuity methods on two nationally representative data sets yields a retirement elasticity of 0.3. Men and women respond at different margins of labor supply but with similar overall effect. Despite retirement incentives being disproportionally large for low income earners old-age poverty declined significantly. --
    Keywords: pure income effect,benefit generosity,labor supply,retirement,poverty,wage effect
    Date: 2011
  4. By: Angel de la Fuente
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple model that can be used to analyze the long-term sustainability of the contributive pension system and the steady-state of pension expenditure to changes in some key demographic and economic variables.
    Keywords: pensions, sustainability, Spain
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2011–05
  5. By: Rudolf Winter-Ebmer; Mario Schnalzenberger (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Nicole Schneeweis; Martina Zweimüller
    Abstract: We study the relationship between job quality and retirement using panel data for European countries (SHARE). While previous studies looked at the impact of bad working conditions on retirement intentions, we can use the panel dimension to study actual retirement as well as other pathways out of a job. As indicators for job quality we use three different approaches: overall job sat- isfaction, over- and undereducation for a particular job as well as effort-reward imbalance which measures the imbalance between a worker's effort and the re- wards he or she receives in turn.
    Keywords: retirement, job quality, job satisfaction, educational mismatch, effort- reward imbalance, SHARE
    JEL: J14 J18 J26 J28
    Date: 2011–07
  6. By: Eduardo Fuentes Corripio
    Abstract: We analyze the potential costs of longevity risk and highlight the importance of updated mortality tables
    Keywords: Pensions, retirement, Latin America, longevity Risk
    JEL: H55
    Date: 2011–07
  7. By: David Neumark; Hans P. Johnson; Marisol Cuellar Mejia
    Abstract: The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This could imply skill shortages in the U.S. economy. We develop medium-term labor force projections of the educational demands on the workforce and the supply of workers by education to assess the potential for skill imbalances to emerge. Based on our formal projections, we see little likelihood of skill shortages emerging by the end of this decade. More tentatively, though, skill shortages are more likely as all of the baby boomers retire in later years, and skill shortages are more likely in the medium-term in states with large and growing immigrant populations. We discuss conflicting evidence on skill shortages based on alternative projections as well as criticisms of the definition of skill requirements, concluding that our projections are likely the most reasonable.
    JEL: J11 J24
    Date: 2011–07
  8. By: Timothy Halliday (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: We consider the covariance structure of health. Agents report their health status on the basis of a latent health stock that is determined by permanent and transitory shocks, and time invariant fixed effects. At age 25, permanent shocks account for 5% to 10% of the variation in health. At age 60, this percentage rise to between 60% and 80%. We document a gradient in which permanent shocks matter less for college-educated people and for women.
    Keywords: health, dynamic panel data models, variance decomposition
    JEL: I1 C5
    Date: 2011–06–20
  9. By: Michela Bia; Pierre-Jean Messe; Roberto Leombruni
    Keywords: exit age; youth employment; propensity score; match-
    JEL: J23 J62 J63
    Date: 2010–12–14
  10. By: ICHIMURA Hidehiko
    Abstract: This publication is in Japanese. Neither an English translation of the publication nor an English abstract is available.
    Date: 2011–01
  11. By: YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi
    Abstract: This publication is in Japanese. Neither an English translation of the publication nor an English abstract is available.
    Date: 2011–01
  12. By: Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus School of Business); Kleinjans, Kristin J. (California State University, Fullerton); Larsen, Mona (SFI - Danish National Centre for Social Research)
    Abstract: We study how severe acute health shocks affect the probability of not working in the U. S. versus in Denmark. The results not only provide insight into how relative disease risk affects labor force participation at older ages, but also into how different types of health care and health insurance systems affect individual decisions of labor force participation. We find that the effect of an acute health shock on labor force participation is stronger in the U.S. than in Denmark, and provide compelling evidence that this is the result of health care system-related differential mortality and baseline health differences.
    Keywords: health shock, health care regimes, work
    JEL: I12 I18 J26
    Date: 2011–07

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