nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2010‒04‒24
six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Towards Social Security Systems in Japan Lessons for India By Sib Ranjan, Misra; Jaydev, Misra
  2. Promoting Employment of Disabled Women in Spain; Evaluating a Policy By Judit Vall Castello
  3. Life-Cycle, Effort and Academic Deadwood By Yu-Fu Chen; Gylfi Zoega
  4. Family Location and Caregiving Patterns from an International Perspective By Rainer, Helmut; Siedler, Thomas
  5. A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand By Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot

  1. By: Sib Ranjan, Misra; Jaydev, Misra
    Abstract: Japan has to restructure its social security systems fromtime to time for different reasons like a far more rapid aging of population , the slow down of long term economic growth and deteriorating equity in the inter-generational transfer of welfare .But even then, the basic elements remain the same .It si pertinent to see how and to whar extent japan’s social security systems could be translated in the case of India. As apreliminary analysis ,in section One, attempt has been made to summarize the distinctive features of social security systems in Japan.Section Two dwells upon the nature and problems of the social security systems in India. An endeavour has been made in Section three to articulate on the lessons for India. Final Section Four concludes and summarizes the main findings.It has ben observed that there are certain experiences that India can learn ,amongothers, the careful application of universal social security systems, the role of insurance policies,private-public synergies ,the role of the government and governance, the importance attached to social capital.
    Keywords: Universal social security system; private–public partnership; Inter-generational Equity governance; social capital
    JEL: H55 H41 E65
    Date: 2009–07–07
  2. By: Judit Vall Castello
    Abstract: The Social Security system is Spain provides four different types of permanente disability pensions which are granted according to the severity of the disabling condition and the remaining capacity to work that is left for these individuals. Therefore, the system is designed to allow for a certain part of the disabled individuals to work while receiving the disability pension. However, the majority of these individuals do not effectively work and employment rates for this group of people have remained very low since 1996. The aim of this research is to evaluate the results of an employment promotion policy introduced in 2004 which increased the deductions of the Social Security contributions paid by employers that hire disabled women. In order to do that we first analyze employment rates of disabled individuals in Spain from 1996 until 2007 followed by the estimation of a bivariate probit model to evaluate the existence of shifts in employment trends in the women relative to the men sample conditioning on the existence of preexisting trends. We find that the increase in the deductions of the Social Security contributions resulted in rises in employment rates for disabled women with respect to disabled men.
    Date: 2010–03
  3. By: Yu-Fu Chen; Gylfi Zoega
    Abstract: It has been observed that university professors sometimes become less research active in their mature years. This paper models the decision to become inactive as a utility maximising problem under conditions of uncertainty and derives an age-dependent inactivity condition for the level of research productivity. The economic analysis is applicable to other professions as well were work effort is difficult to observe along some dimensions.
    Keywords: Deadwood, aging, optimal stopping, salary schemes
    JEL: J44 J22
    Date: 2010–04
  4. By: Rainer, Helmut (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Siedler, Thomas (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper conducts a cross-national econometric analysis of intra-family location and caregiving patterns. First, we assess, from an international perspective, the relationship between family structure and the geographic proximity between adult children and their parents. We then examine whether differences in family structure affect the amount of informal care adult children provide to their elderly parents. Lastly, we look for cross-country differences in family location and caregiving patterns, and interpret observed differences in terms of heterogenous institutional solutions to the long-term care problem. Our results not only provide a new empirical perspective on the geography of the family, but also give interesting insights into how family-related and institutional factors shape patterns of time transfers from adult children to elderly parents.
    Keywords: geography of the family, child-to-parent time transfers
    JEL: D19 J14
    Date: 2010–04
  5. By: Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested.
    Keywords: cohort-component model, stochastic simulation, population, fertility, mortality, migration, sub-national area
    JEL: J11 R23
    Date: 2010–03–31
  6. By: Thomas Seegmuller (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579); Stefano Bosi (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise)
    Abstract: We revisit the seminal paper on endogenous fertility by Barro and Becker (1989) taking into account households' heterogeneity in terms of capital endowments, mortality differential and cost per surviving child. Focusing on an endogenous growth version, we show at first that there exists a unique balanced growth path (BGP) where the population growth rates of all dynasties are identical. Then, we study the long-run effects of shocks on mortality rates (such as epidemics), mortality differential and total factor productivity (TFP) on the economic and demographic growth rates. The main mechanism rests on the adjustment of the average rearing cost of a surviving child. Finally, we extend the model considering the effects of labor taxation. We find that a higher tax rate may, on the one side, enhance growth but, on the other side, raise wealth inequalities.
    Keywords: endogenous fertility, heterogeneous households, mortality differential, labor taxation, endogenous growth
    Date: 2010–04–13

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