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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | J. Trent Alexander; Michael Davern; Betsey Stevenson |
| Abstract: | We discover and document errors in public use microdata samples ("PUMS files") of the 2000 Census, the 2003-2006 American Community Survey, and the 2004-2009 Current Population Survey. For women and men ages 65 and older, age- and sex-specific population estimates generated from the PUMS files differ by as much as 15% from counts in published data tables. Moreover, an analysis of labor force participation and marriage rates suggests the PUMS samples are not representative of the population at individual ages for those ages 65 and over. PUMS files substantially underestimate labor force participation of those near retirement ages and overestimate labor force participation rates of those at older ages. These problems were an unintentional by-product of the misapplication of a newer generation of disclosure avoidance procedures carried out on the data. The resulting errors in the public use data could significantly impact studies of people ages 65 and older, particularly analyses of variables that are expected to change by age. |
| Keywords: | Census ; Population ; Labor supply |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-03&r=age |
| By: | van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Mannheim); Deeg, Dorly J. H. (VU University Amsterdam); Lindeboom, Maarten (VU University Amsterdam); Portrait, France (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Cognitive functioning of elderly individuals may be affected by events such as the loss of a (grand)child or partner or the onset of a serious chronic condition, and by negative economic shocks such as job loss or the reduction of pension benefits. It is conceivable that the impact of such events is stronger if conditions early in life were adverse. In this paper we address this using a Dutch longitudinal database that follows elderly individuals for more than 15 years and contains information on demographics, socio-economic conditions, life events, health, and cognitive functioning. We exploit exogenous variation in early-life conditions as generated by the business cycle. We also examine to what extent the cumulative effect of consecutive shocks later in life exceeds the sum of the separate effects, and whether economic and health shocks later in life reinforce each other in their effect on cognitive functioning. |
| Keywords: | cognitive functioning, business cycle, bereavement, developmental origins, retirement, health, long-run effects, dementia |
| JEL: | I12 I10 J14 E32 |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4780&r=age |
| By: | Brainerd, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | The formerly socialist countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have experienced a remarkable demographic transformation in the past twenty years. On many dimensions of fertility and family formation, much of the region now looks like Western Europe—below-replacement fertility rates, rising age at first marriage and first birth, and high and increasing out-of-wedlock birthrates, characterize many countries formerly distinguished by replacement-level fertility and early, near-universal marriage and childbearing. The other facet of this demographic transformation is nearly unprecedented changes in adult mortality rates. An upsurge of cardiovascular and external cause mortality caused a massive premature loss of life among working-age men in the former Soviet Union in the 1990s. In contrast, cardiovascular mortality has fallen at a rapid rate across Eastern Europe since 1989. This study discusses the dimensions and most likely causes of these demographic changes and assesses the possible consequences of the changing fertility and mortality patterns. Much remains unknown about the underlying reasons for the demographic transformation of the region; directions for future research in this area are discussed. |
| Keywords: | fertility; marriage; mortality; transitional economies |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-15&r=age |
| By: | Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The relative importance of a cohort’s early life conditions, compared to later period conditions, on adult- and old-age mortality is not known. This paper studies how cohort-level mortality depends on shocks in the cohort’s early and later life (period) conditions. I use cohort’s own mortality as a proxy for the early life conditions, and define shocks as deviations from trend. Using historical data for five European countries I find that shocks in early life conditions are only weakly associated with cohort’s later mortality. This may be because individual-level health is robust to early life conditions, or because at the cohort-level scarring, selection and immunity cancel each other. Shocks in period conditions, measured as deviations from trend in period child mortality, are strongly and positively correlated with mortality at all older ages. The results suggest that at the cohort-level period conditions drive mortality change. |
| Keywords: | Europe, mortality |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-009&r=age |
| By: | Kathrin Johansen (University of Rostock) |
| Abstract: | Multiple searches for information can increase individual participation in occupational pension programs. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and search theory to explain the formation of information networks on pensions. Using a dataset representative of the German population, we empirically investigate the determinants of network formation with respect to information about occupational pensions. We find that transaction costs, provision of information by the employer, quality of the intermediary, and subjective concern with this topic increase willingness to participate in a network and increase the number of network partners. |
| Keywords: | information search, occupational pensions, network formation |
| JEL: | D83 J14 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ros:wpaper:114&r=age |
| By: | Erik Meijer; Lynn A. Karoly; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | The 2003 Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement and Modernization Act added a new prescription drug benefit to the Medicare program known as Part D (prescription drug coverage), as well as the Low-Income Subsidy (LIS) program to provide "extra help" with premiums, deductibles, and copayments for Medicare Part D beneficiaries with low income and limited assets. In this paper, the authors report on the use of matched survey and administrative data to estimate the size of the LIS-eligible population as of 2006. In particular, they employ individual-level data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to cover the potentially LIS-eligible noninstitutionalized and institutionalized populations of all ages. The survey data are matched to Social Security Administration (SSA) administrative data to improve on potentially error-ridden survey measures of income components (e.g., earnings and beneficiary payments from Supplemental Security Income and Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance) and program participation (e.g., participation in Medicare or a Medicaid/Medicare Savings program). The administrative data include the Master Beneficiary Record/Payment History Update System, the Master Earnings File, and the Supplemental Security Record. The survey data are the source of information on asset components, as well as the income components (e.g., private pensions) and individual characteristics (e.g., health status) not covered in the administrative data. Their baseline estimate, based on the matched data, is that about 12 million individuals were potentially eligible for the LIS as of 2006. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the use of administrative data has a relatively small effect on the estimates but does suggest that measurement error is important to account for. The estimate of the size of the LIS-eligible population is more sensitive to the relative weight they place on the two survey data sources, rather than the choice of methods we apply to either data source. |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:743&r=age |
| By: | Asher, Mukul (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The current global economic crisis has led to greater prominence for the issue of strengthening social protection systems in Asia. This paper analyzes the key factors determining and the possible avenues for strengthening social protection systems in Asia. The choice of an appropriate combination of avenues depends on the initial starting point, public policy objectives, institutional, fiscal, and other capabilities. <p>Following introductory remarks, Section 2 discusses demographic and labor market trends in Asia. It stresses that rapid ageing and large, informal labor markets pose challenges for Asian social protection systems, while making the role of the state even more essential. This is followed in Section 3 by an overview of social security systems in Asia. The key point is that while there are fairly elaborate social security programs in Asia, primarily for formal sector employees, this does not necessarily imply that the schemes are well designed, have wide coverage, or are financially sustainable. Section 4 discusses four general avenues to strengthening social protection systems. These emphasize greater professionalism, parametric and systemic reforms, social assistance, and social pensions, as well as others such as microfinance institution-initiated pensions. <p>The final section provides concluding observations. The global economic crisis provides a potential opportunity for strengthening social protection systems. However, the construction of multitiered social protection systems will require much greater professionalism, experimentation, political and organizational leadership, and vision. |
| Keywords: | asia social protection systems; strengthening social systems; social development; global economic crisis; social protection systems |
| JEL: | H55 H87 J11 J18 J21 J26 |
| Date: | 2010–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0198&r=age |
| By: | James M. Poterba; Steven F. Venti; David A. Wise |
| Abstract: | We consider the evolution of assets after retirement. We ask whether total assets--including housing equity, personal retirement accounts, and other financial assets--tend to be husbanded for a rainy day and drawn down primarily at the time of precipitating shocks, or whether they are drawn down throughout the retirement period. We focus on the relationships between family status transitions, “latent” health status, and the evolution of assets. Our analysis is based primarily on longitudinal data from the HRS and AHEAD cohorts of the Health and Retirement Study. We find that the evolution of assets is strongly related to family status transitions. For both single individuals and married couples who do not experience a death or divorce, total assets increase well into old age. In contrast, individuals in married couples that experience a family status transition, either a death or a divorce, exhibit much slower asset growth and often experience a large decline in asset values at the time of the transition. In addition, the level and evolution of assets is very strongly related to health, measured by a latent health index. For example, for continuing two-person HRS households between the ages of 56 and 61 in 1992 the ratio of assets of households in the top health quintile to the assets of those in the bottom quintile was 1.7 in 1992. It had increased to 2.2 by the end of 2006. |
| JEL: | E21 J14 |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15789&r=age |