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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Colombino, Ugo (Department of Economics Cognetti De Martiis,); Hernæs, Erik (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research,); Locatelli, Marilena (Department of Economics Cognetti De Martiis); Strøm, Steinar (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | In order to estimate labour supply responses among older people we have employed a very simple model of retirement decisions that can be estimated on a single cross-section sample, and still be given a structural interpretation in terms of inter-temporal decisions. The model is estimated on Norwegian register data from 1996, which covers all Norwegians aged 55-68 in 1996. The empirical model is employed to assess the impact on retirement of moving the Norwegian pension system towards actuarial fairness. Future annual pension benefits are increased if retirement is postponed say, for one year. In one of the simulations future annual benefits are increased by NOK 8,000 (as of April 2009 1 Euro~ NOK 8.7), which is around 5 per cent of the average pension benefit in 1996 and corresponds approximately to the adjustment in the new pension system which comes into effect 1. January 2011. The number of men and women choosing retirement is reduced by around 5 per cent, given that there is no consumption smoothing. When perfect consumption smoothing is assumed the reduction is much larger; 18 per cent in the case of men and 14 per cent in the case of women. These reductions are really sizeable and indicate that pension reforms, combined with removing constraints in the credit market, may be of great importance in giving the individuals incentive to prolong their working life. |
| Keywords: | Retirement; inter-temporal interpretation; estimates and policy simulations; Norway |
| JEL: | D10 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2009–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2009_009&r=age |
| By: | Clara I. Gonzalez; José Ignacio Conde Ruiz; Michele Boldrin |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of immigration on the Spanish pension system during the next fifty years by building aquantitative-theoretical framework. In order to carry out the exercise of projection of revenues and expenditures in the Spanish pension system, we have developed an Overlapping Generation Model where individuals differ by age, gender, skill and nationality. The Cohort Component Population Projection Method is used for the demographic projections, and for the labor market scenario we have simulated the full labor history of all of our different workers for the period-taking into account the future evolution of the educational levels and five possible situations during their labor history (employed, self-employed, unemployed, disable and inactive). In a first baseline scenario the system will be in deficit around year according to the last official estimations. The arrival of a large number of foreign workers is offering the Social Security System roughly five years of additional time to correct its important underlying unbalances. However after this period, the structural problems will come back and may be even magnified by the presence of an additional number of retired immigrants. Even if immigration reaches its total assimilation in the labor market it will not be sufficient to avoid that the pension system will be in deficit. However, immigration is allowing us to obtain very valuable additional time in order to carry out the necessary reforms. |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-26&r=age |
| By: | Eytan Sheshinski |
| Abstract: | Two salient features of modern economic growth are the rise in aggregate savings rates and the steady increase in life expectancy. This paper links these processes, showing that under certain conditions economic theory supports the hypothesis that increased longevity leads to higher aggregate savings in steady state. The analysis is based on a lifecycle model with uncertain longevity in which individuals choose an optimum consumption path and a retirement age. Conditions on the age-specific pattern of improvements in survival probabilities are shown to ensure that individual savings rise with longevity and that aggregation preserves this result. Population theory (Coale (1972)) is used to link the steady-state age density function and the population's growth rate to individuals' survival probabilities. The importance of a competitive annuity market in avoiding unintended bequests is underscored. |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:huj:dispap:dp519&r=age |
| By: | Eytan Sheshinski |
| Abstract: | It has been argued that increased life expectancy raises the rate of return on education, causing a rise in the investment in education followed by an increase in lifetime labor supply. Empirical evidence of these relations is rather weak. Building on a lifecycle model with uncertain longevity, this paper shows that increased life expectancy does not suffice to warrant the above hypotheses. We provide assumptions about the change in survival probabilities, specifically about the age dependence of hazard rates, which determine individuals' behavioral response w.r.t. education, work and age of retirement. Comparison is made between the case when individuals have access to a competitive annuity market and the case of no insurance. |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:huj:dispap:dp520&r=age |
| By: | Olivier Pierrard; Henri R. Sneessens |
| Abstract: | We build on the DSGE literature to propose an overlapping generation model for Luxembourg.By way of illustration, the model is then used to study the consequences of the ageing of the population and the potential effects of alternative macroeconomic policies. |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:cahier_etudes_36&r=age |
| By: | Eva Schlenker |
| Abstract: | Recent developments in the German demography will give rise to a shortage in skilled workers in the coming decades. The German economy is in need of thousands of engineers already. A solution to this problem might involve a higher degree of integration of female engineers into the workforce. Data from the microcensus 2006, the official representative statistics of the population and the labour market in Germany, confirm the existence of a hidden reserve of female engineers. Ordered response models and seminonparametric estimation methods are used to show that the labour supply in the engineering sector is mainly determined by age. In addition, the labour supply of female engineers depends on how many children they have, on the age of their youngest child, and on their partners' income. Moreover, women care more about their families, rather than focusing on their career. |
| Keywords: | Demographischer Wandel; Discrete Choice-Modelle; Fachkräftemangel; Frauenerwerbstätigkeit |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoh:hohdip:315&r=age |
| By: | Ana I. Balsa (University of Miami); Máximo Rossi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Patricia Triunfo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and compares socioeconomic inequalities in the use of healthcare services by the elderly in four South-American cities: Buenos Aires (Argentina), Santiago (Chile), Montevideo (Uruguay) and San Pablo (Brazil). We use data from SABE, a survey on Health, Well-being and Aging administered in several Latin American cities in 2000. After having accounted for socioeconomic inequalities in healthcare needs, we find socioeconomic inequities favoring the rich in the use of preventive services (mammograms, pap tests, breast examinations, and prostate exams) in all of the studied cities. We also find inequities in the likelihood of having a medical visit in Santiago and Montevideo, and in some measures of quality of access in Santiago, Sao Paulo, and Buenos Aires. Santiago depicts the highest inequities in medical visits and Uruguay the worse indicators in mammograms and pap scans tests. For all cities, inequities in preventive services at least double inequities in other services. We do not find evidence of a trade-off between levels of access and equity in access to healthcare services. The decomposition of healthcare inequalities suggests that inequities within each health system (public or private) are more important than between systems. |
| Keywords: | inequalities, healthcare, medical visit, preventive services. |
| JEL: | I1 I11 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2009-131&r=age |
| By: | Arup Maharatna |
| Abstract: | Construction of a long-term demographic perspective on India’s tribal population rests on the premise that aggregation over diverse tribal groups is valid not only in statistical and quantitative terms, but it is useful both conceptually and operationally. |
| Keywords: | census, India, India's tribes, tribes, demographic, anthropology, human, civilization, historians, anthropologists, Scheduled Caste, population, British period, SC, sociologists |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2191&r=age |
| By: | Sergi Jiménez Martín; Judit Vall Castello |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of observed exits from employment for people aged 45-59 years old in the context of the Spanish labour market in 1981-2006. The main aim of the paper is to identify the effect of the business cycle (BC) on the timing and the type of exit route out of the labour force. We proceed in two stages. In the first stage, we study the determinants of exits from employment to non-employment. In the second, we take into account the fact that there are several competing exit routes (unemployment, disability or inactivity) and estimate a competing risk model to evaluate how important BC conditions are in determining the respective exit probabilities. We make use of the recently released Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales to estimate discrete time hazard regression models. We match this information with a number of variables constructed with macroeconomic data derived from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica to measure growth and employability performance of different economic sectors and regions in Spain in order to capture the variation in the business cycle between times, sectors and regions. Time-varying covariates are also included in the analysis to model the monetary incentives provided by the system. We find that both BC conditions and a number of special schemes included in the unemployment and disability legislation affect the exit timing and also the choice of the route out of the labour market. |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-25&r=age |