By: |
Nikos Pappas (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
Abstract: |
The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three
decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period
economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess
the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation
strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size
and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and
future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates
and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to
project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age
population changes are introduced to the G-AMOS modelling framework calibrated
for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to
cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur
as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is
that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the
importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered. |
Keywords: |
CGE modelling, ageing population, migration, demography, Greece |
JEL: |
J11 J21 |
Date: |
2008–03 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:0801&r=age |