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on Africa |
| By: | Irene Wanjiru Kariuki |
| Abstract: | The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that Africa loses as much as USD 60 billion each year in illicit financial flows (IFFs). Undoubtedly, the IFFs strip substantial amounts of resources from African countries, and the immediate impact is a reduction in national expenditure and investment. This translates into inadequate public services, including hospitals, schools, national security, and transport infrastructure. It also contributes to rising unemployment, which in turn fuels higher crime rates, persistent poverty, and related socio-economic challenges. One anticipated success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is increased intra-and extra-African investment. This, however, will not come without consequences, including a likely rise in financial and related crimes. As African economies continue to open up and attract foreign investment, there is a growing need to balance the benefits with the potential risks of IFFs, and to propose practical mitigation measures—lest illicit outflows ultimately erode the gains generated by new investments. This brief explores the relationship between foreign investment and IFFs in Africa by assessing the legal framework under the AfCFTA, as well as the regulatory and enforcement gaps that may allow IFF actors—often operating under the guise of legitimate investors—to operate across the continent. The brief also offers recommendations that, if implemented, can significantly contribute to the fight against IFFs. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp14_26 |
| By: | Kurtz, Gerrit; Lacher, Wolfram; Roll, Stephan |
| Abstract: | The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become one of the most aggressive external actors in African conflicts, from Ethiopia, Libya and Somalia to Sudan. The leadership in Abu Dhabi obstinately denies its support for belligerents, yet it has maintained it even during the US-Israeli war against Iran - despite the serious repercussions for the UAE. Its role impedes efforts at conflict resolution and exacerbates humanitarian crises and regional instability. It undermines Europe's interest in reliable trade routes, the prevention of forced displacement and regional integration. Germany and its European partners should accord much greater weight to the UAE's destabilising actions in their bilateral relations, criticise them more explicitly and consider sanctions. The context of the war with Iran, as well as tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, offers an opening for a change in policy in Abu Dhabi. |
| Keywords: | United Arab Emirates (UAE), African conflicts, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, US-Israeli war against Iran, regional integration |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:341371 |
| By: | Mdhlalose, Dickson |
| Abstract: | South Africa's state-owned enterprises (SOEs), entities that collectively hold assets exceeding R1.3 trillion and are instrumental in delivering infrastructure, energy, transport, and social services, have been the epicentre of sustained and systemic financial mismanagement. Annual Auditor-General reports consistently reveal billions of rands in irregular, fruitless, and wasteful expenditure attributable to identifiable individuals, yet consequence management the formal process of holding transgressors financially and professionally accountable remains conspicuously absent from most SOE governance architectures. This paper argues that the core failure is not merely one of political will or prosecutorial capacity, but of the design of management accounting systems: South African SOEs lack the internal control frameworks, performance metrics, and management control architectures needed to create a traceable, evidence-based accountability chain from financial transgression to individual culpability. Drawing on an integrative review of 60 peer-reviewed, legislative, and practitioner sources published between 2020 and 2026, the paper examines public sector financial management reforms under the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA); the theoretical contribution of management control systems (MCS) to corruption curbing and waste reduction; performance management and accountability frameworks for public entities; and international case studies of successful SOE turnaround. The paper proposes a redesigned Management Accountability Architecture (MAA) for South African SOEs, comprising five integrated components: a consequence-linked performance management system, a real-time irregular expenditure-tracking module, individual accountability mapping, an MCS governance layer, and an independent consequence-enforcement mechanism. Recommendations are directed at National Treasury, SOE boards, accounting officers, and the Auditor-General. |
| Keywords: | State-owned enterprises (SOEs), Irregular expenditure, PFMA (Public Finance Management Act), Irregular expenditure, Management accounting |
| JEL: | M48 M41 M42 H83 H11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341498 |
| By: | Ambel, Alemayehu A.; Woldeyes, Firew Bekele |
| Abstract: | This study investigates taxpayer responses to tax compliance interventions undertaken in collaboration with Ethiopia’s revenue authority, focusing on gender differences among business owners. The research targeted a sample of 5, 408 business owners, and the interventions—letters highlighting tax obligations and civic responsibilities—were successfully implemented with 3, 551 participants. The interventions involved letters emphasizing tax obligations and civic duties and were evaluated through a randomized controlled trial across diverse economic sectors and sub-city locations. Data from quantitative surveys and administrative records provided information about reported tax declarations and compliance behaviors. The findings indicate a balance in key variables before the intervention, with notable impacts of the intervention on reported profit tax declarations. While examining gender differences in tax compliance, the study found no differential effects of the intervention based on business owners’ gender. Specifically, the result shows that the difference in tax compliance between male and female business owners is not statistically significant at both intensive and extensive margins. This indicates that gender did not play a meaningful role in influencing tax compliance as a result of the intervention. |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11409 |
| By: | Jonathan Dries |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, millions of hectares of land in Africa have been transferred to investors, raising fears of displacement and conflict. This paper estimates the causal impact of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) on local dissent by comparing successfully implemented projects to a control group of exogenously failed deals. Using staggered difference-in-differences estimators across 1, 391 geocoded deals, I find that LSLAs cause a sustained increase in civic unrest of 158% relative to the pre-treatment mean. Protest responses are strongest among domestic investors acquiring community or state land for food-crop production, pointing to local dispossession and domestic elite capture. Integrating media, survey, and electoral data consistent with this hypothesis, I document parallel shifts in property-rights media discourse, an erosion of traditional authority, and broader electoral mobilization in affected constituencies. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.09642 |
| By: | Mertens, Gaetan; Toure, Nouhoum |
| Abstract: | In fragile, conflict-affected, and violent contexts, decentralization is widely promoted to improve service delivery and strengthen the social contract by shifting power closer to citizens. However, empirical evidence on whether these reforms deliver in environments marked by weak state capacity and low institutional trust remains limited. This paper evaluates Mali’s Project for the Deployment of State Resources for the Improvement of Services program, which implemented performance-based conditional grants across 102 communes between 2021 and 2024. Drawing on administrative budget data and georeferenced Afrobarometer survey data, the study assesses the impacts of performance-based conditional grants on local fiscal performance, service delivery, and institutional legitimacy. The results show that a 1 percent increase in performance-based conditional grant allocations is associated with a 1.2 percent increase in investment expenditures and measurable improvements in budget balances. Expenditures were reallocated toward social sectors (education, health, water, and agriculture), consistent with program objectives. A difference-in-differences analysis points to statistically significant increases in citizen satisfaction with public services, particularly health (+2.6 percentage points), water and sanitation (+1.4), and education (+1.0), as well as an 18.4-point rise in trust in municipal councils. Institutional “spillover” effects extended to the national level, with trust in the presidency and parliament increasing by 9.1 and 7.3 points, respectively. A scenario-based cost-effectiven ess analysis points to potentially substantial returns under the stated assumptions. Illustrative estimates suggest that observed trust gains could be associated with USD 57 million to USD 141 million in additional annual tax revenues, equivalent to 1.1 to 2.8 times the program’s total cost, through enhanced voluntary compliance—assuming a transmission of trust into compliance broadly consistent with parameters in the literature. These findings are consistent with the view that well-designed performance-based transfers may improve service outcomes and contribute to rebuilding public trust in fragile, conflict-affected, and violent contexts, with effects that appear to extend beyond the local level. Policy implications include considering institutionalization of the performance-based conditional grants within Mali’s fiscal architecture and the design of a medium-term roadmap for sustainability and possible scale-up. |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11413 |