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on Africa |
| By: | Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean- Luc |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the impact of unemployment on the environmental quality known as the environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis by accounting for the heterogeneity among African countries. To the best of our knowledge, no prior study has examined the environmental-unemployment nexus in the African context. The annual data of unemployment, gross domestic product, population growth, usage of renewable, non-renewable energy, urbanization and ecological footprints from 1990 to 2021 are sourced from the World Bank and Global Footprint network. A set of methods is employed for empirical analysis. The results confirm there is a trade-off between the unemployment rate and the environmental quality in Africa. However, when the heterogeneous effect is considered. The findings reveal that unemployment in Africa has detrimental effect on the environmental quality. The effect becomes more significant in higher percentile. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Ecological footprint, Unemployment, environmental Phillips curve, heterogeneous, Kenel-Based Regularized Least Squares, Africa |
| JEL: | E24 Q01 Q56 Q59 |
| Date: | 2026–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129052 |
| By: | Tehulu, Tilahun Aemiro |
| Abstract: | This research explores the key factors that drive the high interest rates observed in microfinance institutions (MFIs) by focusing on the effects of firm-specific characteristics in the context of MFIs from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study utilizes data from 129 MFIs in SSA from 2004 to 2018. Random-effects GLS regression is employed as our main method of data analysis. The study unveils that operating inefficiency and capitalization drive interest rates positively, whereas higher loan intensity and loan officer productivity are negatively associated with microcredit interest rates. Moreover, we find that MFIs with higher credit risk in the previous period tend to reduce interest rates in the current period, possibly to reduce the total debt burden for the borrowers and improve repayment rates, or alternatively, due to shifts to more creditworthy borrowers. Nevertheless, our study is unable to find any evidence of discrimination against women via charging higher interest rates. The results are robust regardless of whether the MFIs are large-scale or small- and medium-scale MFIs, except for loan officer productivity and credit risk, which hold valid only for small- and medium-scale MFIs but not for large-scale MFIs. Our findings have several considerable implications for how MFIs could provide more affordable microcredit for the poor. More specifically, MFI managers need to reduce operating inefficiencies, invest more of their assets in loan portfolios, improve loan officer productivity, and expand the scale of MFI operations through debt leverage to reduce interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Capitalization, Interest rates, Operating efficiency, Loan intensity, Microcredit pricing, Productivity, Microfinance institutions, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E43 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129046 |
| By: | Smuts, Jan; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | Trade misinvoicing — the deliberate falsification of volumes, values or classifications of traded goods by at least one party in an international transaction — can undermine the accuracy of trade data, erode a country’s tax base, or facilitate illicit financial flows. South Africa has been flagged as one of the world’s largest sources of illicit financial flows from illicit trade, cross‐border laundering and mineral smuggling. Data availability however makes it difficult to assess this empirically. We compare South Africa’s reported ex‐ port and global counterpart import data to quantify the potential scale of export misinvoicing in South Africa. We show that the data suggest that there has been systematic under‐invoicing of South African commodity exports. However, we also highlight data limitations that constrain accurate assessment of trade misinvoicing. The scale of possible misinvoicing is significant. If taken literally, our findings suggests substantial foregone mineral royalties for the South African fiscus. Our back‐of‐the‐envelope estimates range between R30 to R50 billion for the period 2015‐2024. Our estimates of foregone fiscal revenue suggest that investing in capacity to monitor trade misinvoicing would therefore be self‐funding. |
| Keywords: | trade misinvoicing, tariffs, tax evasion |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F38 H26 |
| Date: | 2026–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129014 |
| By: | Victoire Girard; Edouard Pignede |
| Abstract: | The past three decades have witnessed a dramatic expansion of artisanal and small scale gold mining (ASgM), transforming the economic and spatial opportunities of tens of millions of people. We show how this transformation has shaped urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1975. Our empirical strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in ASgM activity driven by the interaction between international gold-price shocks and local geological suitability for artisanal extraction, and combines it with new continent-wide data on urban population, nighttime lights, and household welfare. Although ASgM is commonly viewed as a rural activity, we find that ASgM exposure significantly accelerates urbanization, accounting for roughly five percent of total urban population growth. This expansion takes the form of extensive, decentralized urbanization: new towns emerge in remote, infrastructure-poor areas, while the growth of pre-existing towns and cities does not accelerate. Both new and existing urban entities exposed to ASgM exhibit lower living standards and limited industrial activity. Overall, ASgM contributes to a fragmented pattern of urbanization without structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Artisanal and small-scale mining, Gold, Spatial development |
| JEL: | O13 O55 Q32 R11 R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2601 |
| By: | Chiovelli, Giorgio; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Elias; Sequeira, Sandra |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of conflict-induced displacement on human capital and occupational shifts, focusing on the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992), during which millions of civilians were forced to flee to the countryside, cities, and neighboring countries. Reconstructing the wartime mobility histories of the surviving population, we examine the consequences of multiple displacement trajectories in a unified framework. First, we characterize the education and sectoral employment of the universe of (non-)displaced. Second, we exploit differences in relocation trajectories among extended kin members during their schooling years. Displacement is associated with significant gains in education. Third, using a movers design, we show that minors displaced earlier to better districts experienced an increase in educational attainment. Focusing on moves during the intensification of the war and when comparing members of the same household, regional childhood exposure effects remain strong, whereas spatial sorting becomes negligible. Fourth, we jointly estimate place-based, spatial sorting, and uprootedness effects, showing that all forces are at play. Fifth, a small survey in Mozambique’s largest northern city reveals long-term effects: internally displaced people report higher education than their siblings who stayed behind but lower social capital and worse mental health relative to locals. Our findings demonstrate that displacement shocks can foster human capital accumulation, even in very low-income settings, albeit at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas. |
| JEL: | O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130778 |
| By: | Aroon Narayanan; Tavneet Suri; Prashant Bharadwaj |
| Abstract: | We study Kenya’s 2016 interest-rate regulation, which capped bank lending rates but left one digital platform, called M-Shwari, exempt on the lending side while imposing a deposit-rate floor across all lenders in the market. Using borrower-level administrative data, survey data, and an RD around the implementation date, we show three main results. First, lending on the exempt platform rose, but with the safest borrowers substituting away toward cheaper capped credit. Second, riskier borrowers increase their savings to build up their credit limits. Third, on the supply side, M-Shwari raises the limits for the safest borrowers in an attempt to retain them. We build and estimate a simple model of screening and credit limit-setting to interpret these reallocations and compute welfare. The observed carve-out for M-Shwari preserves access for high-risk borrowers but yields a slight aggregate welfare decline relative to pre-policy. However, a uniform (across all lenders) interest rate cap counterfactual generates substantially larger welfare losses by entirely eliminating credit for high-risk borrowers. |
| JEL: | G51 L13 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35166 |