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on Africa |
| By: | Manger, Mark; Mihalyi, David; Panizza, Ugo; Rescia, Niccolò; Trebesch, Christoph; Wong, Ka Lok |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africa’s domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50, 000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa — albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments. |
| Keywords: | Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20747 |
| By: | KONAN, Estelle; SOPOUDE, Anne-Marie; DADAKPETE, David |
| Abstract: | Faced with an ever-increasing financing gap, African economies need to find urgent solutions. With domestic capital markets underdeveloped, private investment is struggling to take off and fully play its role as a lever of economic growth. For some, the key could be greater financial integration, as this would revitalize the domestic financial system. Yet, some studies suggest that this effect is mainly observed in more advanced economies. This paper contributes to this debate by investigating the relation between financial development and financial integration using a sample of 39 African countries observed from 2000 to 2019. Dynamic panel estimation using GMM suggests that increased financial integration leads to higher financial development in Africa. This result can be attributed to the recent upward trend in financial development and financial integration observed in African countries. Expanding our empirical framework to include the spatial dimension, we observe that African countries are surrounded by neighbors with similar levels of financial development. Additionally, our spatial econometric modeling reveals that a country’s total assets held by deposit money banks, are positively influenced by those of its neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | Financial Integration, Financial Development, GMM |
| JEL: | C21 C23 E44 F36 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128121 |
| By: | Boysen Ole (European Commission - JRC); Simola Antti (European Commission - JRC); Ferrari Emanuele (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the recent shift in the United States (US) trade policy and its impact on African countries within the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Several potential outcomes combining the new US policy, retaliation by trading partners, a US-China trade war, and the AfCFTA are considered in order to estimate a range for the potential effects. A preliminary analysis of the US import tariffs suggests that they cause a significant reordering of competitiveness among trading partners in the US market, differing by product. Simulations utilising a global economic trade model reveal that the direct impact of US tariffs on African countries is small and is greatly outweighed by indirect effects originating largely from trade deflection caused by the high tariffs that the US imposes on China. This is especially true if the trade war persists and in sectors where China’s share in the US import market is high. This vulnerability to external trade policies highlights the necessity for stronger continental integration, which would reduce Africa’s dependence on external markets and enhance its resilience to global trade shocks. The AfCFTA has the potential to play a crucial role in this regard, by promoting intra-African trade and investment, and strengthening the continent’s collective bargaining power. The study highlights the importance of the AfCFTA being implemented rapidly and ambitiously, alongside further integration, to reduce Africa’s vulnerability to external trade policies and promote sustainable economic development. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202606-2 |
| By: | Ampofo, Akwasi; Khalil, Umair; Panza, Laura; Silva, Francisco |
| Abstract: | We develop a theoretical model of religious conversion in which potential adherents face changing payoff structures, spiritual or instrumental, triggered by the arrival of a new religious movement, the conversion of monarchs, or other shocks that alter the relative returns to conversion. Coupled with non-linear private returns in the share of co-religionists and intergenerational transmission of religious beliefs, our model yields multiple, stable steady-states in the community’s religious composition. We use this model to rationalize the spread of Islam in West Africa post-1500. The Atlantic slave trade altered payoffs in favor of Islam because Muslim rulers offered a de facto protection from enslavement, but only to their co-religionists. This created strong incentives for conversion among non-Muslims in regions exposed to slave raiding. Using newly compiled historical data alongside contemporary survey-based measures of Islamic presence, we show that communities under Islamic rule during 1500-1900 and exposed to Atlantic slavery exhibit persistently higher Muslim presence both after the end of slavery and today. |
| Keywords: | Islam |
| JEL: | D82 N37 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20757 |
| By: | Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Gorin, Clement; Nakamura, Shohei; Roberts, Mark |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes urbanization patterns across Sub-Saharan Africa circa 2015 using a dartboard algorithm and high-resolution gridded population data to delineate urban areas and urban cores, cities and their population centers, and towns. Key empirical regularities are presented regarding urban hierarchies and internal city structures. Urbanization rates often exceed official ones and vary considerably across countries from 29.4% in Gabon to 78.1% in Kenya. Within countries, delineated areas show great size diversity following Zipf's law, without much urban primacy. Cities’ land area increases slightly less proportionally to their population. Monocentric population patterns with declining population density toward peripheries largely dominate, though some large multicentric extended, not necessarily capital, cities exist. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization; Dartboard approach; Satellite imagery; Population density |
| JEL: | R12 R23 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20592 |