|
on Africa |
| By: | Edward, Caesar |
| Abstract: | This paper, "The Geometry of Power, " presents a path-integral framework for analyzing the dynamics of political regimes under uncertainty. Whereas the earlier work, The Calculus of Power, focused on optimal paths, the present approach replaces single optimal paths with ensembles of permissible political histories, each weighted by an action functional. In this paper, we also introduce the concepts of path entropy, state entropy, and free action to describe the structures of political accessibility and strength. We then used Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated with political, economic, and conflict indicators, to test the validity of the framework on six East African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The aim of the analysis is to evaluate the relative accessibility of democratic, authoritarian, military, and collapsed regime endpoints. The results show that the stability of regimes and shifts is governed not only by minimizing costs but also by the “entropy of the geometry” that shapes rational political behavior under uncertainty. Authoritarian regimes are found to be structurally strong under prevailing regional constraints. However, democratic transitions are restricted to narrow and fragile pathways. |
| Date: | 2026–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t9pur_v1 |
| By: | Wrobel, Ralph |
| Abstract: | The evolving geopolitical landscape has placed South Africa at a crossroads, torn between its historical ties to the West and its growing relationships with BRICS+ nations, particularly China and Russia. The country's recent political shift, marked by the African National Congress (ANC) losing its parliamentary majority, has intensified debates over its international alignment. As a "Global Swing State, " South Africa must navigate a complex global order by balancing cooperation with both power blocs-mainly Europe and China-while maintaining independence. A pragmatic foreign policy-one that prioritises economic development, democratic stability, and institutional reform- will be crucial in positioning South Africa as a bridge between the Global South and the West. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics, Swing States, South Africa, Europe, Russia, China |
| JEL: | F50 O55 P45 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:335025 |
| By: | Akeliwira, Ayuune George |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between natural resource rents and poverty in 45 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2011 to 2020. The measure of poverty used is the percentage of the population living below income thresholds of $3.65 and $2.15 per day, which are commonly used by the World Bank to measure poverty in low-income countries. Data for the analysis are drawn from international sources, including the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform, World Bank Development Indicators, Global Financial Development Indicators, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and the Political Regimes of the World dataset (Herre & Roser, 2023). The econometric results, derived from fixed-effects regression models, account for unobserved heterogeneity across countries. The findings indicate that, in aggregate, natural resource rents (from oil, minerals, natural gas, coal, and forests) do not have impact on poverty at any threshold. However, when disaggregating by resource type, the results show that natural gas rents and mineral rents are positively and significantly associated with poverty at all poverty thresholds. These findings strongly support the resource-curse hypothesis, which posits that resource wealth, if not effectively managed, can increase poverty and hinder long-term economic growth. Policymakers in SSA should focus on improving governance and directing resource rents into productive sectors to ensure that resource wealth contributes positively to broader economic development. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, natural resource rents, resource-curse, Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:334396 |
| By: | Raifu, Isiaka; Adeboje, Oluwafemi; Obijole, Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | This study employs the data of 53 countries in Africa between 1991 and 2019 to examine the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation for the youth and working age population taking into consideration gender dichotomy. The aim is to determine the validity of Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in the continent. For robustness, we employ both static and dynamic panel threshold regression methods to determine whether effect of unemployment on labour force participation varies across different unemployment level. First, out findings reveal that the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation is not linear with varying effects across gender and age groups. For female youths, DWH holds irrespective of unemployment levels, although the effect increases as unemployment rise above the threshold. In contrast, for male youth, below threshold, DWH holds in the static model but in the dynamic model AWEH holds. However, above the threshold, DHW dominates in both models. In the case of working-age population, for the women, AWEH holds below the threshold while DWH prevails above it. The difference between the static and dynamic models can be attributed to labour market adjustments, hysteresis effects and dynamics of household income. Given our findings, we suggest that target market interventions and skill development programmes should be prioritise by the governments in African countries, especially for the youth irrespective of their gender. Also, social safety net and if possible, introduce unemployment benefits across countries in the continent would be good policy options. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, labour force participation, youth, working-age group, threshold analysis |
| JEL: | C24 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127570 |