nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2026–02–02
five papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong, Xiamen University Malaysia Campus


  1. African Trade and Investment for Global Resilience : The Mattei Lecture at the World Bank’s 2025 Africa Growth and Opportunity—Research in Action (AGORA) Conference By Okonjo-Iweala, Ngozi
  2. Chinese Energy Security: Africa’s Opportunity for a New Development Boost By Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
  3. Transformation of the Moroccan Economy: Key Drivers, Shifts, and Future Pathways By Arkebe Oqubay
  4. Downstream Impacts of Mines On Agriculture in Africa By Lukas Vashold; Gustav Pirich; Maximilian Heinze; Nikolas Kuschnig
  5. Modelling Tourism-Environmental Pollution-Health Outcomes Nexus in Africa By Raifu, Isiaka; Airohi-alikor, Priscilla

  1. By: Okonjo-Iweala, Ngozi
    Abstract: This paper, based on the Mattei Lecture that the author delivered at the 2025 Africa Growth and Opportunity–Research in Action Conference, argues that Africa can anchor a new model of growth—and bolster global resilience—by shifting from commodity dependence to value-added production and deeper integration into trade and investment networks. Against a backdrop of strained multilateralism and falling foreign direct investment to developing economies, global trade remains more robust than presumed, with goods, services, and South-South flows expanding. Africa’s goods exports are projected to grow rapidly, and digitally delivered services have surged from a low base, underscoring untapped potential. Yet persistent impediments—among the world’s highest trade costs, slow regional integration, and limited value addition—have left Africa underrepresented in global trade. The paper advances a two-track agenda: (i) reforming the global trading system, including World Trade Organization modernization and investment facilitation, to restore predictability and openness; and (ii) accelerating African reforms to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area, reduce intra-African trade frictions, and attract efficiency-seeking foreign direct investment into manufacturing, services, and “industries without smokestacks.” Leveraging Africa’s megatrends—demographic dynamism, rising middle classes, and mineral and arable endowments—and “green comparative advantage, ” the paper highlights opportunities to locate energy-intensive activities where renewable resources are abundant, closing gaps in clean energy investment. Case studies—from industrial parks and automotive exports to fintech and critical mineral value chains—demonstrate feasibility but emphasize the need for scale. A pragmatic, delivery-focused partnership—particularly with Europe, via a modernized “Mattei formula”—is proposed to de-risk investment and prioritize timely, transformative infrastructure, yielding shared gains in growth, jobs, and supply chain diversification.
    Date: 2026–01–13
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11295
  2. By: Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
    Abstract: China's ascent to the position of the world's most prominent energy consumer has altered global energy markets and fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of energy security. As China navigates the complexities of sustaining its economic momentum, ensuring access to reliable, affordable, and diversified energy sources has become an existential imperative, intricately woven into its foreign policy strategy. In parallel, Africa's immense wealth of both conventional and renewable resources, coupled with its drive toward industrialization and sustainable development, presents a remarkable opportunity for a transformative partnership. This Policy Paper explores the strategic intersection between China's energy imperatives and Africa's developmental aspirations. It argues for a relational cooperation model that transcends a narrow transactional approach, and champions an inclusive, sustainable, and future-oriented partnership. Historically characterized by overseas investments in oilfields, critical infrastructure, and renewable energy projects, China's engagement is examined against Africa's chronic energy poverty and industrialization needs. China can enhance its energy security and gain access to Africa's abundant energy resources. At the same time, Africa can accelerate its progress towards the goals enshrined in Agenda 2063, improve its energy infrastructure, and boost its industrialization. However, the partnership is not without significant risks. Issues of debt sustainability, environmental and social governance, and political instability threaten to undermine the transformational potential of China–Africa energy cooperation. Accordingly, this Policy Paper stresses the imperative for transparent, inclusive, and sustainable modes of engagement, advocating for stronger environmental stewardship, enhanced local capacity-building, and greater alignment with Africa's regional integration agendas. This emphasis on transparency and sustainability is crucial to building confidence in the partnership.
    Date: 2025–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_27-25
  3. By: Arkebe Oqubay
    Abstract: Morocco has emerged as one of Africa's success stories, achieving significant progress in economic transformation and the green transition over the past 25 years. Continuing and deepening this transformation is essential to reach the country’s goal of becoming a high-income economy in the coming decades. Significant challenges include managing the risk of the middle-income trap, addressing demographic pressures, promoting inclusive growth, ensuring environmental sustainability, and advancing the broader green transition. A vital part of this effort is developing innovation and technological capabilities, promoting sustainable industrialization, increasing productivity, tackling youth unemployment, and improving labor markets and workforce quality. Morocco’s experience offers valuable lessons for African economic development by demonstrating the potential for industrial transformation, challenging widespread pessimism about Africa’s prospects for industrialization, and positioning Morocco as a potential driver of growth. This paper reviews and synthesizes the transformation of the Moroccan economy, covering the period from 1970 to 2025 and examines government policies and provides insights into Moroccan economic change and lessons for Africa.
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:rp_14-25
  4. By: Lukas Vashold; Gustav Pirich; Maximilian Heinze; Nikolas Kuschnig
    Abstract: Mining operations in Africa are expanding rapidly, creating negative externalities that remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide causal evidence for the impact of water pollution from mines on downstream vegetation and agriculture across the continent. We exploit discontinuities in water pollution caused by mines along river networks to compare vegetation health upstream and downstream. We find that mines significantly reduce peak vegetation downstream, impairing the productivity of croplands. These effects correspond to substantial crop losses and highlight the environmental and agricultural externalities of mining activity.
    Keywords: mining, agriculture, water pollution, vegetation, externality, natural resources
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2025-9
  5. By: Raifu, Isiaka; Airohi-alikor, Priscilla
    Abstract: This study used JKS Granger non-causality and 3SLS to examine causal interactions among tourism arrivals, environmental pollution and health outcomes in Africa. The causality results revealed a Granger-caused relationship between tourism arrivals, environmental pollution, and health outcomes. The 3SLS results indicated that tourism is positively linked with health outcomes and environmental pollution, while tourism and health outcomes are also positively related to environmental pollution. Our findings suggest that the government should prioritise sustainable tourism.
    Keywords: tourism arrivals, environmental pollution, health outcomes
    JEL: I00 L83 Q53
    Date: 2025–11–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127414

This nep-afr issue is ©2026 by Sam Sarpong. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.