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on Africa |
| By: | Nicole Stoelinga; Tuuli Tähtinen |
| Abstract: | We investigate how exposure to conflict events shapes individuals’ democratic preferences, focusing on support for democracy in general and perceptions of governance within one's own country. We examine how ethnic affiliation–whether an individual belongs to an ethnic group with access to state power–influences democratic attitudes, reflecting differences in social standing and expectations about democratization. Using a rich data set covering more than 30 African countries over two decades, we exploit variation in the timing of conflict events relative to survey interviews to identify causal effects. Our findings show that conflict exposure, on average, increases support for democracy, but the effects vary by ethnicity and regime type. In autocracies, conflict triggers rally-around-the-flag effects: support for democracy rises, but so do perceptions of the state. Violence also increases trust in ruling institutions in autocratic regimes, an effect that is absent in more democratic settings. |
| Keywords: | democracy, political preferences, conflict, protest, trust |
| JEL: | D74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12178 |
| By: | Tsambou, André Dumas; Diallo, Thierno Malick |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing evidence on the importance of African countries' participation in global value chains (GVCs), relatively little is known about the role of innovation. This paper tends to fill this gap by examining the effects of innovation on firms' GVC participation in francophone Africa. We rely on survey data covering over 9535 firms in 18 countries. Using propensity score matching and instrumental variable methods, we find strong evidence that innovation is positively related to firms' GVC participation, with large variation across innovation and GVC measures. We also find that the innovation impact varies according to firm size, with significant effects for small firms. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Global Value Chains, Firm, Francophone Africa |
| JEL: | Q55 F14 D24 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sgscdp:327117 |
| By: | Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | climate; computable general equilibrium models; machine learning; risk; uncertainty; Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:158180 |
| By: | Chisoro, Shingie |
| Abstract: | South Africa's citrus and wine industries have achieved relative success in global markets to become the country's leading agri-food exports. However, the two industries have realised relatively different upgrading trajectories in global value chains (GVCs). The citrus industry quickly grew its export earnings to become the world's second largest citrus exporter, while the wine industry has been slipping the global ranks to become the world's thirteenth largest wine exporter from seventh place, with declining export earnings since 2010. The role played by industry associations in the export performance of each industry has been central. However, the roles of co-ordination and collective private governance for long-term industry growth, together with engagement with public governance, are not widely understood. Drawing on literature on upgrading in GVCs and collective organisation, this paper analyses the export performance of the two industries through critically reflecting on the key decisions and activities of the respective industry associations to tackle challenges for upgrading in export markets, highlighting the key factors underlying the differences in performance. We consider the composition and interests of member firms, access to and use of organisational resources, investments in collective industry goods and services, and the relationship with the government. We find that citrus and wine both have similar conditions regarding access to resources through industry levies, and the observed differences in export performance boil down to the activities and initiatives that the industries used the resources to invest in, and how they implemented the activities and initiatives, rather than the quantity of levies. It appears that the success of the citrus industry largely stems from the historical decisions of the organisation to invest in collective long-term research and technical capabilities directly creating dynamic efficiencies for producers and upgrading in the product mix. The study has important policy implications for African producers seeking to enter and to participate in agrifood GVCs. Coalitions to generate collective solutions and support long-term investments for African producers in GVCs are more crucial than ever in terms of building capabilities when stakeholders pull together, and industry bodies do not simply lobby for the short-term interests of their most powerful members. |
| Keywords: | citrus, wine, upgrading, exports, collective organisation, industry associations |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sgscdp:327116 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163758 |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr. |
| Abstract: | Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males. |
| Keywords: | communication; labour market; skill training; youth; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162738 |