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on Africa |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Unemployment is a major issue in ECOWAS countries and its determinants are not well-known. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in ECOWAS countries using data from 1993 to 2021. The data were analysed using the panel fixed effect and random effect regression methods. It was found that real GDP growth and central bank asset to GDP ratio are significant macroeconomic determinants of unemployment while inflation rate and domestic private credit have an insignificant effect on unemployment in ECOWAS countries. It was also found that higher domestic private credit significantly decreases unemployment during periods of economic expansion while periods of deflation decrease the rate of unemployment in ECOWAS countries. Positive economic growth is associated with low unemployment in ECOWAS countries. |
| Keywords: | unemployment; economic growth; ECOWAS; real GDP growth; central bank; inflation; West Africa, domestic credit to private sector. |
| JEL: | J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127373 |
| By: | Griffin-Ellis, Ayrton; Horn, Aidan J.; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | Non-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | real-time data, vintages, data revisions |
| JEL: | C81 E01 |
| Date: | 2025–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127825 |
| By: | Onogwu, Daniel; Omolokun, Taiwo |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the growing tension between Africa’s industrial policy aspirations and the constraints imposed by global trade rules and preferential trade agreements. It investigates how the World Trade Organization (WTO) and regional or bilateral trade agreements restrict the tools African states can use to support local industry. The paper also reconsiders national and economic security definitions in the African context and examines how these evolving concepts can justify a broader policy space. The study argues that Africa’s development objectives require a rebalancing of trade commitments with industrial and security imperatives, proposing practical approaches for greater autonomy in policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Development Strategy; Economic Security; Industrial Policy; National Sovereignty; Preferential Trade Agreements; Trade Discipline. |
| JEL: | F5 |
| Date: | 2025–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127164 |
| By: | Najjuma, Roselyn; Battisti, Giuliana |
| Abstract: | Access to finance is crucial for achieving sustainability goals, especially for poor and developing countries in the global south. However, traditional financial instruments often fall short to support the desired goals. This study explores the potential of a new modality of financing that integrates social, environmental, and economic criteria tailored to the sustainable supply chain finance. We illustrate the case of smallholder coffee farmers in Uganda with very limited collateral; to show how sustainable supply chain financial instruments can help to achieve sustainable goals whilst ensuring fair compensation for farmers and economically viable product for the money lender. Enhancing the welfare of smallholder coffee farmers can significantly strengthen their resilience, allow them to produce in a more environmentally sustainable way and contribute to their broader economic stability. In turn, it would reduce the financial risk to lenders and promote social equity to the benefit of the broader society. The study also explores the partnerships among government, NGOs, and private sector actors in creating supportive ecosystems for sustainable supply chain financing. The analysis underscores the importance of aligning financial incentives with long-term societal goals, advocating for a holistic approach that bridges the gap between profit and purpose. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Supply Chain Finance, financial innovation, coffee value chain, coffee farmers, farmers associations, small holder farmers |
| JEL: | Q14 O13 G23 L81 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336689 |