nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2026–06–22
six papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong, Xiamen University Malaysia Campus


  1. Exploring the Link Between Foreign Investment and Illicit Financial Flows in Africa under the African Continental Free Trade Area Regime: Insights from the Real Estate Sector in Kenya and Nigeria By Irene Wanjiru Kariuki
  2. Digital finance transformation and digital financial inclusion in Africa: the promise and challenges By Ozili, Peterson K
  3. Strategic Approaches to Critical Minerals and Korea-Africa Cooperation By Seoni Han
  4. Delivering adaptation and water security: behavioural determinants sustaining community volunteer champions in sub-Saharan Africa By Ingram, Will; Vincent, Katharine; Lalika, Christossy; Barry, Djibril; Gungalund, Vitus Tondelo; Gannon, Kate; Mikolajczak, Katarzyna; Kanyumba, Gloria; Truelove, Julie
  5. Paths to the Rainforests: Ancestral Beliefs and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa By Pablo Alvarez-Aragon
  6. Current account sustainability in the Democratic Republic of Congo: structural imbalances, external vulnerability, and policy adjustment mechanisms By Muya, Jonathan

  1. By: Irene Wanjiru Kariuki
    Abstract: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that Africa loses as much as USD 60 billion each year in illicit financial flows (IFFs). Undoubtedly, the IFFs strip substantial amounts of resources from African countries, and the immediate impact is a reduction in national expenditure and investment. This translates into inadequate public services, including hospitals, schools, national security, and transport infrastructure. It also contributes to rising unemployment, which in turn fuels higher crime rates, persistent poverty, and related socio-economic challenges. One anticipated success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is increased intra-and extra-African investment. This, however, will not come without consequences, including a likely rise in financial and related crimes. As African economies continue to open up and attract foreign investment, there is a growing need to balance the benefits with the potential risks of IFFs, and to propose practical mitigation measures—lest illicit outflows ultimately erode the gains generated by new investments. This brief explores the relationship between foreign investment and IFFs in Africa by assessing the legal framework under the AfCFTA, as well as the regulatory and enforcement gaps that may allow IFF actors—often operating under the guise of legitimate investors—to operate across the continent. The brief also offers recommendations that, if implemented, can significantly contribute to the fight against IFFs.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:pp14_26
  2. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: Accelerating digital finance transformation initiatives across African countries is essential to develop the African continent. Using the conceptual discourse method and the global findex data, this article explores the on-going digital finance transformation in Africa, the benefits for digital financial inclusion in Africa as well as the challenges that lie ahead. The article emphasises the importance of the digital finance transformation in Africa and urges for coordination with stakeholders to accelerate the use of digital financial services in African countries. It also emphasises the need to balance digital finance transformation initiatives with the risks. This study contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of digital finance in transforming nations.
    Keywords: digital finance, financial inclusion, Africa, open banking, digital financial inclusion, fintech, digital public infrastructure, DPI, mobile money, financial literacy, MPesa, eNaira, flutterwave
    JEL: G21 G23 O3 O31 O33
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128972
  3. By: Seoni Han (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP))
    Abstract: The global green transition has intensified competition for critical minerals essential to renewable energy and electric vehicles, which require significantly more minerals than traditional technologies. The demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements has surged, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities due to the concentration of production and processing in a few countries.<p> Africa, with its abundant mineral reserves, is emerging as a key player in global supply chains of critical minerals, possessing about 20% of the world’s reserves needed for green transition. Many African governments are reforming mining laws to enhance state control while offering incentives to attract investment. In response, major global players such as the US., the EU, China, Japan, and Canada are increasing cooperation with Africa, each adopting distinctive strategies to secure supply chains.<p> In its partnership with Africa, Korea should pursue a comprehensive strategy across the critical mineral value chains, ensuring ESG compliance, and promoting industrial cooperation aimed at upgrading local processing capabilities. Three key strategies are recommended: (1) tailoring cooperation to Africa’s evolving policy context and infrastructure needs; (2) strengthening resource diplomacy and enhancing multilateral and bilateral cooperation through platforms such as the Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue; and (3) expanding financial and non-financial support to promote greater private sector engagement.
    Keywords: critical minerals; Africa
    Date: 2025–07–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022493
  4. By: Ingram, Will; Vincent, Katharine; Lalika, Christossy; Barry, Djibril; Gungalund, Vitus Tondelo; Gannon, Kate; Mikolajczak, Katarzyna; Kanyumba, Gloria; Truelove, Julie
    Abstract: Attempts to strengthen adaptive capacity and water security across sub-Saharan Africa include widespread use of a local volunteer champion mode of delivery by NGOs and governments. Problems with sustained engagement of volunteer champions exist but have received limited attention. We employ a behavioural lens, rarely applied in this context, to examine factors shaping champion sustained engagement. Qualitative data were gathered from 158 champions across seven active champion-based water security and climate adaptation projects in Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia, and analysed using the COM-B behavioural model. The sample showed convergence of behavioural determinants across diverse case studies. Champions’ physical and psychological capability to stay engaged was typically evident, and reflective and automatic motivation was high, driven by prosocial commitment, interest, and satisfaction and reinforced by emotional responses including joy from helping and pride. Conversely, physical and social opportunity are frequently constrained, particularly by inadequate tools, materials, transport, or ongoing support from external project implementers. Contrary to assumptions that low sustained engagement stems from insufficient champion motivation, this instead shows that external support and structural factors are critical to leverage otherwise high motivation. The findings offer practical guidance for organisations seeking to enhance adaptation and water security through champion-based programme design, orienting focus towards reducing structural barriers to support sustained engagement. Such strategies avoid relinquishing responsibility and overburdening champions with unfair motivational appeals, with important climate justice implications. The study demonstrates the value of a behavioural lens for investigating the delivery of community-based adaptation and water security.
    Keywords: climate change adaptation; volunteer; behaviour change; motivation; COM-B; champtions; Tanzania; Malawi; Burkina Faso; Zambia; Mozambique; South Africa
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2026–06–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138704
  5. By: Pablo Alvarez-Aragon
    Abstract: Conventional demographic models systematically overestimate fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper proposes a complementary explanation grounded in a prevalent but understudied belief system: ancestors influence the living and seek the continuation of their lineage, into which they may be reincarnated. In this worldview, having children becomes a moral and collective duty, rooted in the spiritual responsibility to ensure the survival of the lineage. Drawing on first-hand data, novel ethnographic information, and historical and contemporary surveys, I document a strong and quantitatively large positive relationship between ancestral beliefs and fertility across contexts and time periods. A simple model in which children are a public good for the lineage rationalizes the patterns observed in the data: the fertility effect of ancestral beliefs is concentrated in patrilineal societies, and a specific form of free-riding emerges among siblings whose children continue the same family line. These findings suggest that high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa rests on moral foundations that standard, externally designed interventions tend to overlook.
    JEL: O12 J13 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2026–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1226
  6. By: Muya, Jonathan
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of current account sustainability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), focusing on the structural determinants of persistent external imbalances and the policy mechanisms required for sustainable adjustment. Drawing on both theoretical and empirical frameworks, the study demonstrates that the DRC’s current account deficit is predominantly structural, rooted in weak economic diversification, chronic service deficits, and significant primary income outflows linked to foreign-owned extractive industries. Using a mixed methodological approach, including descriptive analysis and econometric modeling, the findings reveal that external imbalances are closely tied to domestic structural constraints and limited absorptive capacity. The paper argues that sustainable adjustment requires not only macroeconomic stabilization but also deep structural transformation, including industrial diversification, financial development, and improved allocation of foreign direct investment (FDI). The study contributes to the broader literature on current account sustainability in resource-dependent economies and offers policy recommendations tailored to the Congolese context.
    Keywords: Current Account Sustainability; External Imbalances; Structural Deficit; Economic Diversification; Absorptive Capacity; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Resource-Dependent Economies; Balance of Payments Adjustment; Financial Development; Democratic Republic of Congo
    JEL: F33 F41 F43 O11 O16 O55 Q33
    Date: 2026–05–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129368

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