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on Africa |
| By: | Daniel Tuki |
| Abstract: | Although much research has examined armed banditry and kidnapping in Nigeria, they focus primarily on the causes of these forms of insecurity and often rely on secondary sources or single local case studies. As a result, there is a notable lack of nationally representative evidence on how Nigerians perceive kidnapping. Using large-N Afrobarometer survey data collected in Nigeria in 2024, this study provides a descriptive analysis of public attitudes toward kidnapping and trust in security providers. The findings show that kidnapping is Nigerians’ leading security concern, with nearly one in three people reporting that they personally know someone who has been kidnapped in the past five years. The analysis further reveals limited trust in the police: when faced with security threats, Nigerians are most likely to turn to community leaders or traditional authorities, followed by neighborhood vigilante groups, with the police ranking third. These results highlight the central role of public trust in shaping civilian responses to kidnapping and armed banditry. They also suggest that state efforts to address insecurity in Nigeria depend not only on expanding security capacity but on restoring confidence in formal security institutions, especially the police. |
| Keywords: | armed banditry, insecurity, kidnapping, nigeria, ransom-driven abductions |
| JEL: | D74 D78 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:450 |
| By: | Chaimae Lazzarou (Bank Al-Maghrib – Central Bank of Morocco) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates Morocco's natural interest rate (NIR) using two approaches: a standard HLW-type framework and an augmented specification that incorporates external factors, namely imported inflation, and movements in the real effective exchange rate. The results point to a downward trend in the natural rate following the Global Financial Crisis and an increase during the post pandemic inflationary episode. The REER-augmented model delivers higher estimates than the baseline, particularly in periods of inflationary pressures. On average, the natural interest rate is estimated to stand at around 2.6 percent over the sample period, implying a negative interest rate gap relative to the policy rate. |
| Keywords: | Natural interest rate; Monetary policy; Small open economy; Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E43 E52 F41 C11 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp01-2026 |
| By: | Vincent Nossek (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale); Walker Kosmidou-Bradley (WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale, University of Twente); Frederic Mortier (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Bastien Cheville (PCI - Phoenix Consulting International); Pierre Mandon (WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | In fragile states such as the Central African Republic, where conflict and institutional fragility severely constrain traditional data collection, mapping multidimensional vulnerability and potential deprivation poses a significant challenge for designing targeted interventions. This paper presents an innovative geospatial dashboard that harnesses alternative data sources— including nighttime light intensity, other relevant satellite imagery, geocoded infrastructure inventories, and critical event records—to develop highresolution indices (at a 5×5 km scale) of economic capacity, access to essential services (education, health, and water), flood exposure, and lethal conflict risks. By employing a Bayesian state-space model to disaggregate sectoral GDP and friction-based accessibility metrics, our analysis uncovers pronounced spatial disparities: economic activity remains concentrated in urban hubs such as Bangui, while rural areas suffer from compounded vulnerabilities, including limited economic opportunities and poor service access. Cross-validation with the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey confirms the predictive validity of these indices for household wealth, with economic and service indicators positively correlated with welfare outcomes. Conversely, exposure to lethal conflict appears paradoxically associated with higher-value targets, potentially reflecting rent-seeking dynamics. These tools enhance the precision of policy targeting in data-scarce environments, providing scalable and actionable insights for poverty alleviation in conflict-affected, low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Satellite imagery, Multidimensional poverty, Fragile states, Development economics, Alternative data |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05480258 |