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on Africa |
| By: | Loubna Eddallal |
| Abstract: | The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf producers, the current crisis is accelerating the emergence of a continental alternative. The Dangote Refinery is increasingly functioning as a continental contingency mechanism by supplying refined petroleum products to African markets facing supply uncertainty. Although this role is driven by commercial incentives rather than coordinated policy, it represents an important shift in Africa's energy geography: for the first time, a continental refining hub possesses the scale to partially cushion African markets against external supply disruptions and strengthen Africa's control over the oil value chain. Dangote's potential to serve as a strategic energy supplier for Africa creates significant trade and energy-security opportunities for several African countries, particularly Morocco, whose aviation market has been expanding rapidly since 2024. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb48_26 |
| By: | Brice Romuald Gueyap Kounga |
| Abstract: | Trust in local institutions matters for trade, public goods provision, conflict resolution, and democratic consolidation. Using individual data from rounds 6 and 7 of the Afrobarometer surveys, I document that respondents in former British colonies are substantially more likely to trust traditional leaders than respondents in former French colonies. Cross-country comparisons of this kind are confounded by unobserved heterogeneity in pre- and post-colonial histories. To make progress on identification, I focus on Cameroon, which contains regions colonized by Britain and regions colonized by France within a single modern state, and I exploit the former colonial partition line as a geographic discontinuity, comparing respondents who live close to either side of the anglophone-francophone boundary. The theoretical argument is that the two colonial powers differed systematically in how they treated customary authority: British indirect rule preserved the governance functions of chiefs, while French direct rule subordinated chiefs to the administration and assigned them its most coercive tasks, taxation and forced labor above all, and these divergent experiences shaped the legitimacy of chieftaincy in ways that persist through institutional continuity and socialization. Consistent with this argument, respondents on the formerly British side are 22 to 26 percentage points more likely to trust traditional leaders than their neighbors on the formerly French side, and they are far more likely to have contacted a traditional leader in the previous year. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.17436 |
| By: | Balán, Pablo; Bergeron, Augustin; Tourek, Gabriel; Weigel, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Formal property rights to land remain rare in sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that social institutions shape citizens' demand for land formalization. When offered the opportunity to formalize, citizens weigh the insurance and tenure-security benefits of informal institutions against their monetary and social obligations. We study a randomized land titling program in a large Congolese city that sharply reduced the costs of acquiring a title. The program caused large increases in both initiation and receipt of titles. Demand was strongest among citizens more engaged in social institutions and more connected to city chiefs, yet such ties did not predict completion of the titling process. Program assignment also reduced citizens' participation in social institutions and worsened their evaluations of chiefs. These findings suggest that, in urban settings where land values are higher and social institutions are more costly, citizens may exit social institutions when formal alternatives become available, illustrating how formalization can reshape engagement with informal authority. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:342513 |
| By: | Chiara Livorno; Luca Tiberti |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks are frequently associated with heightened violence in agro-pastoral regions, yet the social processes linking weather-induced livelihood pressure to conflict remain insufficiently understood. This study examines whether spatial configurations of community lineages are associated with variation in community-level conflict responses to localized drought shocks. Across West Africa (1997–2022), we combine spatial panel data on drought exposure, conflict events, and the ancestral geography of lineage ties. We find that, conditional on ancestrally connected locations remaining climatically unaffected, drought exposure is associated with a 20-percentage-point lower predicted conflict incidence in clusters embedded in extended lineage networks relative to otherwise comparable clusters with more localized lineage structures. These patterns are consistent with a mechanism whereby social and institutional linkages formed across space condition access to nonlocal support and mobility-based adaptive capacity when climatic conditions deteriorate locally but not covariately. Complementary household panel data from Mali (2018–2021) show that households linked to spatially extended lineage networks experience smaller contractions in annual food expenditures and family remittance inflows following drought shocks. Overall, the findings highlight how historically constituted institutions connecting households across space are associated with differential responses to localized weather shocks in contexts where formal protection remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Extended kinship, informal risk-sharing, conflict, weather shocks, Western Africa. |
| JEL: | Q54 Z13 D74 N47 O13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_07.rdf |
| By: | Díaz-Pastor, Santos J.; Liu, Yang; Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio J. |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a replicable regulatory and financial framework to achieve universal electricity access as a core component of a just energy transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that universal access is feasible under realistic constraints when electrification planning, tariff regulation, and capital mobilization are designed as one coherent system rather than separate workstreams. The analysis rests on a computational, multi-period financial model that integrates individual interacting sub-models for every actor in the distribution segment. Versions of the same overall approach are applied to three countries, spanning different starting points and sector structures. Uganda provides the reference implementation in the wake of an expiring private distribution concession; Zambia recalibrates the same logic to a distressed national utility and a thin domestic revenue base; and Madagascar—where the framework is already being applied—shows it moving from design to district-scale delivery in the lowest electricity access setting of the three. The central mechanism is an integrated national planning, regulatory, business, and financing architecture that coordinates grid extension, mini-grids, and stand-alone systems within a single distribution-level financial plan. The framework separates two gaps that are routinely mixed—the viability gap, the recurring shortfall between affordable tariff revenues and the regulated cost of service, and the financing needs, the timing mismatch between front-loaded investment and gradual cost recovery—and shows that they each call for a distinct instrument. The evidence indicates that universal access can be reached without permanent reliance on external grants, and that extending the access horizon rather than compressing investment improves feasibility while still reaching everyone—so that the design becomes a problem of finding an electrification target year, a pattern of overall subsidy, and tariffs that are just right, each neither too much nor too little. The paper reframes universal access as a challenge of cost allocation and institutional design, showing that affordability, inclusion, and financial sustainability are not competing objectives once electrification is designed as one system. |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11439 |
| By: | Abdelaaziz Ait Ali; Mahmoud Arbouch; Fahd Azaroual; Karim El Aynaoui; Adnane Lahzaoui |
| Abstract: | Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical average, and has accelerated to 4.8% since 2024. This performance has allowed Morocco to gradually recover from output losses incurred during the pandemic. The recovery has been mainly driven by capital accumulation, supported by a strong public investment effort and an investment rate expected to remain close to 30% of GDP. Yet this pattern also raises a familiar issue: investment-led growth can generate limited domestic spillovers when it relies heavily on imports. This weakens its impact on local production and puts pressure on the external balance. Consequently, net exports have continued to weigh on growth despite the solid performance of export-oriented sectors. At the same time, the external environment has also opened new opportunities. The reconfiguration of global value chains has increased Morocco’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment, particularly from China. In parallel, resilient remittances from Moroccans living abroad and more favorable terms of trade have supported income and domestic demand. The key concern now lies in the sustainability of this trajectory. Maintaining the current pace will require Morocco to convert the public investment impulse into stronger private investment and productivity gains, to support a structural transformation that remains incomplete. This transformation will also need to be reconsidered considering the demonstrated potential of certain tradable service activities, whose role could complement traditional manufacturing drivers. Otherwise, the current recovery may remain a phase of sustained growth, but without a sufficiently durable anchor. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_17-26 |
| By: | Meryam Amarir |
| Abstract: | Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks. In this context, corridors are no longer merely transport routes but also instruments of economic security and competitiveness. This shift opens up new prospects for Africa’s Atlantic façade. Thanks to its geographical position, the gradual modernization of its port infrastructure, and the development of regional cooperation initiatives, Africa’s Atlantic façade has several assets that could strengthen its role within international trade networks. However, this opportunity will depend on states’ ability to improve connectivity between existing infrastructure, deepen cooperation, and build more integrated logistics networks. Africa’s Atlantic façade could thus emerge as an area that contributes to strengthening the resilience of global connectivity chains. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb46_26_2 |