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on Africa |
| By: | Mark S. Manger (University of Toronto); David Mihalyi (World Bank and Kiel Institute); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute (International Economics) and CEPR,); Niccolò Rescia (Global Sovereign Advisory and Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute and CEPR); Ka Lok Wong (N Economic Commission for Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africaâs domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50, 000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa â albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Borrowing; Public Debt; Development Finance; Domestic Markets; Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp15-2025 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Samba Diop (Saint-Louis, Senegal); Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye (Saint-Louis, Senegal) |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is to investigate the legitimacy of the African Union by examining the socio-demographic determinants of citizens’ support of African integration. To do this, we use Rounds 4, 5, 6 and 8 of the Afrobarometer survey data corresponding to more than 110 000 respondents. Using logistics regressions, we find that individual characteristics such as living area, education, employment status, political membership, freedom, living condition and Living Poverty Index (LPI) are significantly related to the probability of supporting African integration. The findings are largely robust to dynamics of regional integration, the African Union and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Thus, since African citizens’ trust in the unification could be considered as a condition of legitimacy in the process, our results suggest that more efforts should be done to gain credibility, especially as it pertains to the benefits of African integration. |
| Keywords: | Institutional support, Afrobarometer survey, African Union |
| JEL: | C23 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/015 |
| By: | Daniel Tuki; |
| Abstract: | Although considerable attention has been given to the growing realignment of many West African countries away from their former colonial ruler, France, and toward Russia—particularly in the realm of security cooperation—there remains a notable lack of large-N empirical research investigating how ordinary citizens perceive the effectiveness of foreign military forces from these countries. This study addresses that gap by focusing on Burkina Faso, a country that recently expelled French troops and welcomed Russian forces into its security landscape. Using nationally representative data from Afrobarometer, I examine how exposure to violence—both in the form of personal victimization and proximity to conflict—shapes public assessments of the contributions of French and Russian troops to national stability. Descriptive results indicate that citizens rate Russian forces significantly more favorably than their French counterparts. Regression analyses reveal that both victimization and conflict exposure are associated with more negative evaluations of French troops, although the relationship is relatively weak in the case of conflict exposure. In contrast, victimization is not correlated with perceptions of Russian troops, and while conflict exposure is positively associated with more favorable views of Russian forces, this finding is not robust when alternative measures of conflict exposure are used. Taken together, these results suggest that public attitudes toward foreign military actors may be shaped not only by security conditions on the ground but also by broader historical and geopolitical narratives. |
| Keywords: | burkina faso, france, military intervention, russia, security cooperation, terrorism, victimization, violent conflict |
| JEL: | D74 F51 F52 H56 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:438 |
| By: | Sylvain B. Ngassam (Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Gildas T. Ngueuleweu (Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This research empirically analyzes the effect of social media on fragility. It goes beyond political grounds which oppose techno-optimistic to techno-pessimistic perceptions of the impact of social media to analyze its consequences on global, Security fragility, economic and social fragilities. The research uses annual data from a panel of 47 African countries for the period 2000–2018. Results reveal that the use of social media by the public to organize offline political actions has no outcome on global fragility. However, its use by elites for the same end accentuates global state fragility. This operates through Security and political fragilities. Fragility is negatively associated with higher civil society participation, education and democracy. The use of social media to organize offline political actions either by people or by elites in the context of higher civil society participation reduces fragility, while its use either by people or by elites in the context of higher educational level accentuates state fragility. The use of social media to organize offline political actions by people in the context of democracy boosts fragility but its use by elites in the same framework reduces fragility. There is a need to sensitize people, especially elites in Africa on the threats and opportunities of social media. There is also a necessity to develop a dynamic, well-educated and well-organized civil society and population in order to better valorize the opportunities that social media represents. |
| Keywords: | Social media, state fragility, security fragility, political fragility, economic fragility and social fragility. |
| JEL: | G20 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/009 |
| By: | Ranger, Nicola A.; Adam, Christopher; Arndt, Channing; Martín, Roberto Spacey |
| Abstract: | Climate change is driving three transformations in the landscape of global finance, with implications for central banks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). First, pressures on financial institutions related to climate-related physical risks are mounting, with potential to threaten price and financial stability. Second, global and domestic responses to climate change are creating risks and opportunities for SSA economies. Third, the ongoing shift in the global financial architecture toward sustainability could either crowd-out or crowd-in international investment flows to SSA. Uncertainties in each increase the challenges for central banks and supervisors. We find that, without action, the risks outweigh the opportunities. To fulfil their mandates, SSA's central banks are obliged to react; however, the paucity of peer-reviewed evidence hinders the development and execution of appropriate responses. Preparedness is crucial if actions by SSA central banks are to play their part in shifting the balance towards managing risks and grasping opportunities. |
| Keywords: | climate change; central banking; Sub-Saharan Africa; financial markets; financial risk |
| JEL: | E58 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129898 |
| By: | Carmen Berta C De Saituma Cagiza |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) contribute to de-risking development in Sub-Saharan Africa by shaping Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows and supporting sustainable economic transformation. Focusing on Angola as a representative case, the research draws on qualitative interviews with international development advisors, foreign affairs professionals, and senior public sector stakeholders. The study explores how DFIs mitigate investment risk, enhance project credibility, and promote diversification beyond extractive sectors. While DFIs are widely recognized as catalysts for private sector engagement, particularly in infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing, their effectiveness is often constrained by institutional weaknesses and misalignment with national development priorities. The findings suggest that DFIs play a crucial enabling role in fragile and resource-dependent settings, but their long-term impact depends on complementary domestic reforms, improved governance, and strategic coordination. This research contributes to the literature on development finance by offering grounded empirical insights from an under examined Sub-Saharan context. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.18906 |