|
on Africa |
| By: | Loubna Eddallal |
| Abstract: | The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf producers, the current crisis is accelerating the emergence of a continental alternative. The Dangote Refinery is increasingly functioning as a continental contingency mechanism by supplying refined petroleum products to African markets facing supply uncertainty. Although this role is driven by commercial incentives rather than coordinated policy, it represents an important shift in Africa's energy geography: for the first time, a continental refining hub possesses the scale to partially cushion African markets against external supply disruptions and strengthen Africa's control over the oil value chain. Dangote's potential to serve as a strategic energy supplier for Africa creates significant trade and energy-security opportunities for several African countries, particularly Morocco, whose aviation market has been expanding rapidly since 2024. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb48_26 |
| By: | Hafez Ghanem |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical rivalries, and especially the competition for access to critical minerals, could be an opportunity for Africa. The objective of African mineral exporters is to diversify their partners and increase processing and value addition on the continent in order to create jobs and enhance export revenues.[1] To succeed, African exporters of critical minerals need to strengthen their coordination and develop joint infrastructure projects and regional value chains. The creation of a platform of key African mineral exporters would be an important step toward enhanced coordination and cooperation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb33_26 |
| By: | Steven M. Radil; Olivier J. Walther |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how political violence in West Africa is distributed between urban agglomerations and their surrounding areas using spatially disaggregated conflict and population data. Covering seventeen countries from 2012 to mid-2025, the analysis shows that political violence remains clearly tied to cities and their peripheries with the majority of violence occurring within and around urban agglomerations. Large cities record the highest number of incidents within their boundaries, while smaller towns, which are more frequently situated near borders, typically experience higher levels of violence outside their boundaries. However, urban-centric violence has also declined since 2012, indicating a progressive ruralization of conflict. These findings provide important regional context to the urbanization of conflict narrative by showing that West African insurgent movements use both urban and rural environments strategically. They also underscore the ongoing vulnerability of peripheral populations and the need for mobile and community-based security approaches outside major cities. Finally, they highlight the importance of strengthening border infrastructure, transport networks, and civic institutions as tools of both development and security. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.03570 |
| By: | Meryam Amarir |
| Abstract: | Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks. In this context, corridors are no longer merely transport routes but also instruments of economic security and competitiveness. This shift opens up new prospects for Africa’s Atlantic façade. Thanks to its geographical position, the gradual modernization of its port infrastructure, and the development of regional cooperation initiatives, Africa’s Atlantic façade has several assets that could strengthen its role within international trade networks. However, this opportunity will depend on states’ ability to improve connectivity between existing infrastructure, deepen cooperation, and build more integrated logistics networks. Africa’s Atlantic façade could thus emerge as an area that contributes to strengthening the resilience of global connectivity chains. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb46_26_2 |
| By: | Nouzha Chekrouni |
| Abstract: | Globally, public policies for youth face a twofold challenge: addressing structural socioeconomic challenges—such as unemployment, precariousness, and regional disparities—while accommodating a growing demand for effective civic participation. (ILO, 2023; United Nations, 2020) In Africa, this challenge takes on a unique dimension given the demographic weight of the youth population and the persistent fragility of local democracies. (AfDB, 2020; Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2023) Elections are one of the barometers of democracy, and the year 2026 marks a turning point. With several simultaneous legislative elections taking place across the continent—including Morocco’s legislative elections on September 23—the issue of youth participation in decision-making processes has taken on renewed urgency. Compounding this electoral context is an unprecedented structural transformation: artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, civic spaces, and the dynamics of governance that young people will have to navigate in the coming decade. (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2026) This Policy Brief traces the path from the general to the specific: from global issues to African-specific contexts, and on to the Moroccan experience. A common thread runs through the entire analysis: the risk of perpetuating existing inequalities—gender, spatial, and territorial—in the design and implementation of youth policies. This risk is systemic, not residual. (Kabeer, 1999; Moser, 1993) |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb31_26_2 |
| By: | Hafez Ghanem |
| Abstract: | Africa is facing a massive electricity deficit that is impacting its economic and social development, and its ability to catch up with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the continent increase its electricity production to connect the 600 million people who are currently without access and to improve the quality of service for the millions who are suffering from frequent blackouts and load-shedding. Economic development in the 21st century will crucially depend on the digital economy and on artificial intelligence (AI), and both are big consumers of electricity. The last decade has seen major advances in nuclear technology and the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). Recently the World Bank has changed its policy to allow it to finance nuclear energy projects in developing countries. This policy brief examines whether those developments are an opportunity for Africa. Are SMRs the solution to Africa’s electricity problem? The policy brief is divided into six sections. After this introduction, section 2 describes Africa’s electricity deficit and its impact on the continent’s development. Section 3 explains why Africa needs more mini grids. Section 4 describes the evolution of SMR technology. Section 5 compares the costs and benefits of nuclear energy using SMRs to the cost and benefit of renewables and of natural gas. Section 6 concludes by trying to answer the question of whether Africa should go full speed toward adopting SMR technology. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb37_26 |