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on Africa |
| By: | Mark S Manger (University of Toronto); David Mihalyi (World Bank & Kiel Institute); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute & CEPR); Niccolò Rescia (Global Sovereign Advisory & Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) -a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africa's domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government auction reports and bond prospectuses. The database covers over 50, 000 individual government loans and securities issued by 54 African countries between 2000 and 2024, amounting to a total of USD 6.3 trillion in debt. For each instrument, it provides harmonized micro-level information on currency, maturity, interest rates, instrument type, and creditor. The data reveal the growing dominance of domestic debt in Africa -albeit with substantial cross-country variation. Four stylized facts stand out: (i) the rapid expansion of domestic debt markets, especially in middle-income countries; (ii) the wide dispersion in borrowing costs and real interest rates; (iii) large cross-country differences in maturity structures and associated rollover risks; and (iv) a rising debt-service burden, particularly due to international bonds. Generally, this project shows that debt transparency is both feasible and valuable, even in data-scarce environments. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Borrowing, public debt, Development Finance, Domestic Markets, Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2516 |
| By: | Marvin Suesse (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Morten Jerven (Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | An influential strand of literature within economics and economic history called ‘persistence studies’ argues that low material living standards in African countries today were determined by institutional choices made in the past. However, the lack of consistent annual data on GDP per capita or institutional variables has meant that this literature has been largely silent as to whether their proposed relationships hold throughout the period it studies. This has made persistence studies vulnerable to criticisms of making leaps of faith or contributing to a ‘compression of history’. Here, we draw on a data set of tax revenues for African polities for the period 1900-2015, with which we proxy the institutional capacity of a state. We then test whether some of the most influential determinants stressed in the persistence literature exert a consistent effect on our measure of institutions. Our findings suggest that the effect of population density and colonizer identity on institutions is not persistent. We find mixed results for precolonial centralization and ethnic fractionalization, while results for slave exports and settler mortality are more in accordance with theory. Overall, our results support the view that historical persistence should be measured, not simply assumed. |
| Keywords: | Persistence; Institutions; Africa; Settler mortality; Slave trades; Fiscal capacity |
| JEL: | O11 O55 N17 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1225 |
| By: | Wei Li; Kashi Kafle; Anna Josephson |
| Abstract: | Agricultural commercialization is often promoted as a key driver of development in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its benefits may not extend equally to all farmers. Using longitudinal household data from the LSMS-ISA and a two-way Mundlak fixed effects estimator, we examine the relationship between farmers' gender and agricultural commercialization in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania. In Ethiopia and Nigeria, women-headed households and those with a higher share of women-managed land face substantial disadvantages in market engagement, particularly in households oriented towards self-consumption. Interestingly, in both countries, women-headed households that do engage in sales are more likely to sell to market buyers and less likely to sell to individual buyers compared to men-headed households. In contrast, in Tanzania, the negative associations between gender and commercialization are weaker and less robust across outcomes. Overall, these findings demonstrate that gender gaps in commercialization are highly context-specific rather than universal, highlighting the need for country-tailored policies that address the institutional and market constraints faced by women farmers. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19556 |
| By: | Mukasa, Stanley; Sangwa, Sixbert |
| Abstract: | Background. African startups operate amid acute capital scarcity and fragmented institutions, which complicates credible quality revelation to investors. Purpose. Focusing on the venture as the unit of analysis, this study investigates how milestones pursued inside university-affiliated accelerators function as signals of venture quality under scarcity, and how entrepreneurial behaviors shape the clarity and credibility of those signals. Design/methodology/approach. We track 17 technology ventures across East- and West-African university accelerators over 185 venture-quarters, combining venture-level panel regressions, event-study analysis, and fuzzy-set QCA. Two composite measures—the Governance-Readiness Index and the Signal-Portfolio Index—capture internal capability building and externally legible signals. Findings. Ventures graduating from university-affiliated accelerators secured roughly three times more equity than matched non-accelerated peers, with heterogeneity explained by milestone attainment and the breadth/strength of signal portfolios. We articulate a signal–noise paradox: effectuation/bricolage behaviors enable survival and progress under constraint yet can appear ambiguous to investors, attenuating signal clarity unless paired with governance readiness and externally validated milestones. Originality/value. The paper elevates signaling theory as the primary lens for early-stage ventures in emerging-market contexts, treats effectuation/bricolage as behavioral mechanisms, and situates staged financing as process logic and triple-helix/institutional-voids as contextual moderators. In doing so, it refines entrepreneurial signaling theory for scarcity contexts and offers actionable diagnostics for accelerators and policymakers designing inclusive, quality-assuring programs. |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6jafg_v1 |
| By: | Mukiibi, Farouk Mark |
| Abstract: | Startups that import MVP-first logics into high-context African markets frequently stall not because products lack utility, but because ventures lack permission to operate. This paper proposes Minimum Viable Relationships (MVR) as a relational-readiness gate that precedes MVP in such contexts. MVR formalizes the conditions under which counterparties (customers, distributors, institutions) grant access without triggering social or organizational sanction. I define the construct, situate it against adjacent ideas (design thinking, diffusion of innovations), and argue that in markets where social sanction outweighs functional risk, relationship viability must be validated before product experiments can be considered valid. The paper contributes three artifacts: (1) a seven-dimension MVR diagnostic with go/no-go thresholds that scores embeddedness, trust, guardian vouches, and channel permission; (2) an MVR Investment Memo template that enables funders to assess relational risk alongside financial and operational risk; and (3) a practical “design lab” of field tools for earning permission (pilot site commitments, data-sharing agreements, compliance pathways, and referral loops). Comparative case vignettes (e.g., SafeBoda, KOKO Networks, Wave vs. Dash, Sendy) illustrate how early permission artifacts correlate with durable traction. The framework reframes early venture due diligence in Africa from “Can the product work?” to “Are we allowed to make it work here?” and offers testable propositions for founders, investors, and ecosystem builders. Limitations and avenues for empirical study are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Viable Relationships, MVR, high-context markets, African startups, market entry, sanction risk, trust, embeddedness, relational governance, MVP, venture capital, due diligence |
| JEL: | L1 M1 O1 O2 O3 O5 |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126190 |