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on Africa |
| By: | Agarwal, Aishwarya; Englander, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | Most African coastal nations prohibit industrial vessels from fishing near their shores; these Inshore Exclusion Zones (IEZs) reserve the most productive locations for small-scale, artisanal fishers. However, previous descriptive research suggests that non-compliance by industrial vessels prevents IEZs from benefiting African economies, food security, and fish stocks. Radar data released in 2024 detect industrial vessels without selection, enabling the first causal evaluation of African IEZs. First, regression discontinuity estimates reveal that 6 of 20 African countries successfully deter industrial fishing vessels (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mauritania, Ghana, and Guinea). Second, bunching estimators obtain counterfactual vessel distributions that are uncontaminated by spillovers outside IEZ boundaries. Third, extensive‑margin effects are captured by calibrating a discrete choice vessel location model to the bunching estimates. Back‑of‑the‑envelope bioeconomic calculations indicate that IEZs increase annual artisanal fisher catch by 324 thousand tons—enough to meet key micronutrient requirements for 6.3 million people—without reducing industrial catch. |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11222 |
| By: | Joel Ferguson; Marshall Burke; Edward Miguel; Solomon M. Hsiang |
| Abstract: | Is human-caused climate change likely to trigger enduring economic decline in modern societies? We study whether changes in violent conflict and economic growth caused by warming could interact to degrade economic opportunities and trap African countries in poverty. We provide evidence of an emerging high-conflict and low-growth "poverty trap" equilibrium in Africa and describe theoretically how such an equilibrium could result from warming. We then combine historical data on temperature, growth, and conflict with projections from a large ensemble of global climate models to evaluate the risk that warming and subsequent conflict could push African economies into a regime of sustained negative economic growth. We find that the risk of such "economic collapse" is material in a moderate-to-high emissions scenario. We estimate that in Africa, a current "high" emissions trajectory (RCP 7.0) may increase the incidence of conflict 5.1 percentage points (95% CI 0.2-13.0) and increase the share of countries with net negative GDP growth this century by 12.2 percentage points (95% CI 2.0-27.5). We calculate that roughly 82% of this additional conflict risk and 14% of projected GDP losses are due to the interacting effects between these two outcomes, underscoring the importance of accounting for their indirect effects and feedbacks. Our findings suggest an unprecedented scale of emissions mitigation, economic policy innovation or institutional investment that would be required to contain the risk of catastrophic human impacts from climate change in many African countries. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 I3 O1 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34320 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | Many countries develop through the increase of their economic resources, which naturally exist in most countries. On the other hand, some evidence shows that countries can develop through fiscal decentralisation, which promotes this growth through regional growth via significantly viable economic transformation. In Africa, for example, federalist countries such as Nigeria and South Africa show greater capacity for regional transformation through indicators of great relevance in themselves. Evidence also shows, for example, greater economic transformation through fiscal federalism. South Africa, for example, has less significant decentralisation but greater capacity to collect tax revenues. The analysis shows that Nigeria, for example, has a fiscal base in only a few states, with 10 states naturally having greater capacity for economic transformation, which suggests that there is less complexity in tax revenue collection, thus restricting economic development particularly in these states. Political decentralisation in African federalist countries does in fact lead to greater political turnover and greater political plurality among its political actors, which are naturally the political parties. Although there is de facto fiscal decentralisation, particularly in Nigeria and Ethiopia, there is nevertheless a greater lack of economic development in all territories, with the exception, for example, of states with greater economic concentration such as Lagos and Abuja. |
| Date: | 2025–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zy3c7_v1 |
| By: | Fadoua Ammari; Rida Lyammouri |
| Abstract: | The Atlantic Initiative, announced by King Mohammed VI in November 2023 to provide landlocked Sahelian countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan territory, promises to profoundly reshape the bilateral relationship between Rabat and Nouakchott. This research paper examines how this unprecedented project creates new strategic opportunities while raising shared challenges for Morocco and Mauritania. Diplomatically, the rapprochement around the Atlantic Initiative unfolds in a delicate regional context, where the Sahara issue remains politically sensitive and the balances within the African Union (AU) are constantly evolving. Economically, this cooperation could open trade corridors crossing Mauritania, develop infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), and stimulate Mauritanian development—particularly through the port of Nouadhibou—while contributing to food security and regional integration. On the security front, the realization of the Initiative requires addressing significant challenges linked to Sahelian instability, including terrorism, road protection, and military collaboration between Rabat and Nouakchott. In complex regional and international environments—shaped by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), reconfigurations in West Africa, and the interests of the European Union (EU)—the success of the Atlantic Initiative will depend on the ability of Morocco and Mauritania to overcome these diplomatic, economic, and security obstacles. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp09_25_en |
| By: | Marcus Vinicius de Freitas |
| Abstract: | China's ascent to the position of the world's most prominent energy consumer has altered global energy markets and fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of energy security. As China navigates the complexities of sustaining its economic momentum, ensuring access to reliable, affordable, and diversified energy sources has become an existential imperative, intricately woven into its foreign policy strategy. In parallel, Africa's immense wealth of both conventional and renewable resources, coupled with its drive toward industrialization and sustainable development, presents a remarkable opportunity for a transformative partnership. This Policy Paper explores the strategic intersection between China's energy imperatives and Africa's developmental aspirations. It argues for a relational cooperation model that transcends a narrow transactional approach, and champions an inclusive, sustainable, and future-oriented partnership. Historically characterized by overseas investments in oilfields, critical infrastructure, and renewable energy projects, China's engagement is examined against Africa's chronic energy poverty and industrialization needs. China can enhance its energy security and gain access to Africa's abundant energy resources. At the same time, Africa can accelerate its progress towards the goals enshrined in Agenda 2063, improve its energy infrastructure, and boost its industrialization. However, the partnership is not without significant risks. Issues of debt sustainability, environmental and social governance, and political instability threaten to undermine the transformational potential of China–Africa energy cooperation. Accordingly, this Policy Paper stresses the imperative for transparent, inclusive, and sustainable modes of engagement, advocating for stronger environmental stewardship, enhanced local capacity-building, and greater alignment with Africa's regional integration agendas. This emphasis on transparency and sustainability is crucial to building confidence in the partnership. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp27_25 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | In 2000, The Economist dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”—a label reflecting a broader system of marginalization rooted in colonial legacy and post-Cold War neglect. This essay offers a realist reappraisal, arguing that Africa’s growing strategic relevance is not the result of benevolence, but of structural necessity. Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics under Trump 2.0’s Bessent Doctrine, Africa has become indispensable: rich in critical minerals, home to strategic digital infrastructure, and central to climate and demographic futures. Yet presence is not power. Africa’s visibility must be converted into bargaining leverage. This requires institutional depth, coordinated diplomacy, and a rejection of donor-driven dependency. From climate finance to digital governance, African states must act not as petitioners but as negotiators. Sovereignty must become operational—anchored in legal capacity, regional platforms, and control over resources, data, and standards. The African Century will not be granted. It must be forged through strategy, discipline, and the will to shape global outcomes rather than be shaped by them. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb34_25 |
| By: | Sampawende J. Tapsoba |
| Abstract: | The return of President Donald Trump could significantly impact macroeconomic policy in Africa. The effects may vary across the continent. Nations that remain neutral towards U.S. influence are likely to benefit, while those aligned with the U.S.'s rivals or lacking immediate economic advantages may be deprioritized in U.S. foreign policy. In this article, we examine the channels through which U.S. policies and the change in political discourse could affect macroeconomic policies in Africa. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp02_25 |