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on Africa |
| By: | Marina Ngoma Mavungu |
| Abstract: | The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The analysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11118 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168640 |
| By: | Lunanga, Elie; Stoop, Nik; Verpoorten, Marijke; Desbureaux, Sébastien |
| Abstract: | Four in five people without access to electricity live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where minigrids are seen as a key solution to closing the energy access gap. Yet investment in minigrids remains constrained by low and unpredictable demand, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings. We study electricity demand in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo – a region marked by conflict and institutional fragility. Drawing on census data from five localities, we track connection rates and electricity consumption over a six-year period. In addition, a detailed pre-connection survey allows us to link household and firm characteristics to actual connection uptake and electricity consumption. We find that demand is highly heterogeneous, and only weakly associated with pre-grid data. This makes planning and sizing of mini-grids particularly difficult and risky. We then examine how the local mini-grid operator, Virunga Energies, has addressed this challenge through an integrated development strategy that includes supporting industrial clients, providing micro-credit, promoting electric cooking, and leveraging temporary anchor loads. The case highlights how mini-grid viability in fragile settings may depend less on improved demand forecasting and more on the capacity to build and coordinate demand alongside infrastructure. This has implications for electrification policy, investment design, and the role of public and donor support in overcoming coordination failures. |
| Keywords: | Kivu, DRC, DRCongo, mmini-grid, electricity, energy |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2025.09 |
| By: | Bandiera, Oriana; Bassi, Vittorio; Burgess, Robin; Rasul, Imran; Sulaiman, Munshi; Vitali, Anna |
| Abstract: | There are 420 million young people in Africa today, and only one in three has a regular salaried job. We study how two common labor market interventions—vocational training and matching—affect the job search behavior of young workers. We do so by means of a field experiment tracking young job seekers for 6 years in Uganda’s main cities. Vocational training amplifies the job seekers’ initial optimism, leading them to search more intensively and toward high-quality firms. Adding matching has the opposite effect, plausibly because of low callback rates. These differences affect labor market outcomes in the long run. |
| JEL: | J64 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120080 |
| By: | Mr. Abdoul A Wane; Carlos de Resende; Jing Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper employs various empirical methods to test the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis in West and Central Africa, considering countries within the WAEMU, CEMAC, CFA, and ECOWAS currency zones and four possible numeraire currencies—U.S. dollar, euro, renminbi, and the CFA franc. Using panel and single-country unit-root, cointegration, error-correction techniques, our findings indicate that the numeraire currency matters for evidence in favor of PPP. Results show slightly stronger evidence when the euro is used as the reference compared to other numeraire currencies, although results vary across different methods. Evidence for PPP is also stronger across the currency zones after the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc, when evidence for PPP using the renminbi as reference is also stronger, suggesting an increasing importance of the renminbi for the economies in West and Central Africa. The paper documents significant differences in price dynamics for the CEMAC and the WAEMU, the two components of the CFA zone, with stronger evidence for PPP found for the WAEMU and reversal speed to PPP faster than the 2-3 years found in the literature. Results also indicate that real exchange rates of the currency zones revert to PPP mainly through adjustments of foreign prices expressed in domestic currencies—which may result from changes in nominal exchange rates of the reference currencies or foreign prices—and less so via adjustments in domestic prices. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity; Real Exchange Rate; CFA zone; price level; inflation; numeraire currency |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/119 |
| By: | Silliman, Stephen; Ssentongo, Julius; Jones, Ticora V; Wells, Brent |
| Abstract: | Surveys and interviews in Sub-Saharan Africa studied the roles of Higher Education Institutions in Africa (HEIAs) as leaders in development-focused research and translation initiatives. Responses from HEIAs and non-HEIA entities suggest an interest for broader participation in development research and translation and increased student participation and inclusion of indigenous knowledge in these initiatives. A need for broader objectives was expressed, including sustainability and improved HEIA capacities. Results point to the benefit of funding research environments and encouraging the evolution of HEIAs, particularly if contributions are based on continuing professional development for faculty as leaders at the education/development nexus. |
| Date: | 2025–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d7s2a_v1 |