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on Africa |
| By: | Miaomiao Tao (The University of Auckland); Jamel Saadaoui (University Paris 8); Emilson Silva (The University of Auckland) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to the conclusions reached by Badru et al. (2025), our findings highlights that fiscal consolidation triggers the growth-depressing effect, independent of the estimation technique used. This contractionary impact intensifies under heightened global uncertainty – whether gauged through geopolitical tension metrics or economic policy unpredictability measures. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal consolidation, economic growth, local projection, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E H |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.7 |
| By: | Loubna Eddallal |
| Abstract: | Nigeria, long regarded as Africa’s oil powerhouse, is entering a new energy chapter, driven by the country’s strategic shift towards becoming the leading gas economy in the continent. With proven reserves exceeding 210 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria is set to emerge as Africa’s foremost gas producer and exporter. The government’s Decade of Gas Initiative, launched in 2021 by President Muhammadu Bihari, constitutes the official framework for this transition, which aims to diversify the economy by reducing dependence on oil and positioning natural gas as the key transition fuel in the African energy landscape. This shift aligns with the rising global demand for cleaner energy sources, since natural gas is viewed as a transition fuel. Nigeria’s strategic gas export plans and opportunities include regional pipeline projects, including the West African Gas Pipeline and the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, aiming to strengthen the country’s position as a key energy supplier across Africa and eventually Europe. By positioning itself as an African gas hub, Nigeria is set to play a pivotal role in regional energy integration, while driving economic growth, contributing to Africa’s clean energy transition, and supporting the continent’s sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb032_25 |
| By: | Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the historical origins of female genital cutting (FGC). We test the historical hypothesis that FGC is associated with the Red Sea route of the African slave trade, where women were typically sold as concubines in the Middle East and infibulation was used as a means to preserve virginity. Using individual-level data from 28 African countries combined with historical records of Red Sea slave shipments from 1400 to 1900, we find that women from ethnic groups whose ancestors experienced greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade are more likely to undergo infibulation or circumcision today. They are also more inclined to support the continuation of this practice. Our findings are robust to instrumenting Red Sea slave exports with the distance to the nearest port used for this route. We also leverage a dataset on oral traditions (Folklore) to show that greater exposure to the Red Sea slave trade correlates with a stronger association between infibulation and the cultural values of chastity and purity, which may have facilitated the diffusion of infibulation among local populations. |
| Keywords: | FGC, FGM, social norms, slave trade, Africa. |
| JEL: | O10 I11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def138 |
| By: | Mr. Edward R Gemayel; Mr. Samuele Rosa; Vidhi Maheshwari; Christoph Ungerer; Peter Lindner |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces growing climate vulnerability, with rising temperatures and extreme weather threatening agriculture, food security, and economic growth. These challenges worsen poverty, fiscal constraints, and limited human capital investment. To address these risks, SSA countries need to scale up green investments while ensuring debt sustainability. Given insufficient traditional public financing, a mix of grants, concessional debt, and private investments is crucial. This paper presents survey results on climate finance in SSA and introduces the Climate Finance Preparedness Index (CFPI) to assess countries' readiness for green financing, highlighting the need for policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and innovative financial products. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); Climate change adaptation; Climate financing; Mitigation and resilience; Public financial management (PFM) |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/099 |
| By: | Siwan Anderson; Sophia du Plessis; Sahar Parsa; James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today’s formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers. |
| JEL: | D72 J16 N47 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33838 |
| By: | Minki Kim |
| Abstract: | Malaria is the primary cause of child mortality and a barrier to childhood human capital accumulation in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the macroeconomic consequences of malaria eradication using a structural model in which individuals endogenously respond to malaria by adjusting fertility and educational investment through the quantity-quality tradeoff. The model matches the empirical estimates from an anti-malaria campaign in Tanzania. The estimated per-capita income gain from eradication is substantial—nearly three times larger than previously reported— as healthier children acquire more human capital per year of schooling, and parents also invest more per child by lowering fertility. The results support accelerating the deployment of malaria vaccines. |
| Keywords: | Malaria, fertility, childhood human capital, quantity-quality trade-off, cross-country income difference |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_690 |
| By: | Alemnew, Teklebirhan; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; policies; exchange rate; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:172441 |
| By: | Morshed, Monzur |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the dynamics of mobile money adoption and satisfaction in Kenya, using household survey data from the Research ICT Africa (RIA) series. The study examines demographic and socio-economic determinants of M-Pesa ownership and user satisfaction through logistic and Poisson regression models. Results suggest that traditional barriers such as gender, age, and education have limited influence on M-Pesa adoption and user satisfaction, indicating a narrowing digital divide. Although the intensity of mobile money usage is proxied by self-reported satisfaction scores rather than transaction frequency, the analysis highlights the platform’s widespread acceptance and usability. These findings carry important implications for the design and rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Kenya’s experience with M-Pesa provides a valuable reference point for future digital currency innovations that are inclusive, trusted, and infrastructure-ready. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:msbz4_v1 |