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on Africa |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | As Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratizing sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts, for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA . |
| Keywords: | Trump government;Sub-Sahara Africa; Trade policy; custom policy; nationalism; rare earths; counter-terrorism; South Africa; DR Congo; Namibia; Somalia; |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F53 F6 H21 P16 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123735 |
| By: | Gruijters, Rob J.; Abango, Mohammed A; Casely-Hayford, Leslie |
| Abstract: | Many African countries have abolished secondary school fees in recent years, but there is no systematic evidence on the impact and equity implications of these initiatives. In this study, we take stock of fee-free secondary education (FSE) initiatives in the region and review their impact on equitable access and achievement, as well as their cost-effectiveness. We begin by discussing the theoretical arguments for and against the abolition of secondary school fees. Second, we examine aggregate statistics on enrollment and transition rates and find that primary school completion remains far from universal in most countries in the region, meaning that most low-income children are currently ineligible for free secondary education. Third, we provide a comprehensive overview of the existing FSE policies in sub-Saharan Africa, showing that almost half of all countries in the region have abolished secondary school fees in the last two decades. Finally, we systematically review empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of recent FSE initiatives. We conclude that free secondary education is an appropriate long-term goal for education systems, but can be costly and inequitable in the short run, especially if it diverts resources from primary education. Our review suggests four concrete recommendations for policymakers that are broadly aligned with the principle of ‘progressive universalism’ in improving access to education. |
| Date: | 2023–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8fa2c_v1 |
| By: | Plantinga, Paul; Shilongo, Kristophina; Mudongo, Oarabile; Umubyeyi, Angelique; Gastrow, Michael; Razzano, Gabriella |
| Abstract: | Several African countries are developing artificial intelligence (AI) strategies and ethics frameworks with the goal of accelerating responsible AI development and adoption. However, many of these governance actions are emerging without consideration for their suitability to local contexts, including whether the proposed policies are feasible to implement and what their impact may be on regulatory outcomes. In response, we suggest that there is a need for more explicit policy learning, by looking at existing governance capabilities and experiences related to algorithms, automation, data and digital technology in other countries and in adjacent sectors. From such learning it will be possible to identify where existing capabilities may be adapted or strengthened to address current AI-related opportunities and risks. This paper explores the potential for learning by analysing existing policy and legislation in twelve African countries across three main areas: strategy and multi-stakeholder engagement, human dignity and autonomy, and sector-specific governance. The findings point to a variety of existing capabilities that could be relevant to responsible AI; from existing model management procedures used in banking and air quality assessment, to efforts aimed at enhancing public sector skills and transparency around public-private partnerships, and the way in which existing electronic transactions legislation addresses accountability and human oversight. All of these point to the benefit of wider engagement on how existing governance mechanisms are working, and on where AI-specific adjustments or new instruments may be needed. |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jyhae_v1 |
| By: | Baiker, Laura; Borchert, Ingo; Magdeleine, Joscelyn; Marchetti, Juan |
| Abstract: | In 2023, the global coverage of the Services Trade Policy Database, jointly developed by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, has been significantly expanded to cover more economies, focusing in particular on the African continent. This enhancement is accompanied by expanded sector coverage including, inter alia, tourism and health care services, which are of particular interest to many African economies. The collection, processing, and vetting of regulatory data took place during 2020–22 and was supported by the German Development Agency GIZ, the European Commission and the International Trade Centre, respectively, as part of their support for the African Continental Free Trade Area negotiations. This paper presents evidence on the 2020/21 state of applied services trade policy across 54 African economies. It offers detailed comparisons of policy stances across economies, broad sectors, subsectors, and modes of supply. Services trade policies in Africa are generally relatively restrictive, albeit with substantial dispersion across economies within each sector. Professional services are the most restricted, while computer and distribution services appear as the least restricted sectors. Larger economies in terms of market size tend to be more restrictive toward services trade, whereas economies with better institutions, including higher regulatory quality, tend to be more open. At the same time, relatively high levels of restrictiveness in transportation among the more industrialized economies may curtail connectivity and thus hamper African economies’ international integration prospects. Landlocked economies also seem to miss an opportunity to alleviate pre-existing geographical disadvantages with more open transportation service policies. Overall, the wealth of quantitative information on policy restrictiveness presented in this paper, along with the underpinning regulatory information, provides a factual basis for the advancement of policy reform, regional integration, and cooperation in service sectors. |
| Date: | 2023–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10537 |
| By: | Eduardo Montero; Dean Yang; Triana Yentzen |
| Abstract: | How do economic costs affect religious choices, and how do religious institutions adapt to economic realities? We study the Seventh-Day Adventist (SDA) church in Sub-Saharan Africa, which prohibits production of tobacco, coffee, and tea, creating salient opportunity costs for potential members in areas suitable for these crops. We construct a measure of SDA membership opportunity cost that varies over time and space based on local crop suitability and export prices. Using church administrative data and member surveys, we find that increased opportunity costs lead to lower membership growth and lower satisfaction with the church among existing members. The church responds by establishing new educational and health institutions and reducing emphasis on "healthy living" religious tenets. These findings reveal how religious organizations can show striking flexibility in balancing tradition and adaptation when faced with economic pressures. Our study provides new insights into the microeconomics of cultural change, as mediated by religious institutions. |
| JEL: | D71 L31 O12 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33482 |
| By: | Thomas Gyima-Adu; Godwin Gidisu |
| Abstract: | Ghana records a low penetration of 1.05% compared to some of its African counterparts. For example South Africa, which has an insurance penetration rate of 17%, followed by Namibia which records 6.3%. This means, there is more room for improvement. More upsetting, with Ghana hovering around the 1% as at 2018, the rate works out to the small amount of Gross Domestic Product. This research seeks to model and forecast insurance penetration rate in Ghana using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average technique. The result indicates that ARIMA (3, 1, 0) is the appropriate model for insurance penetration in Ghana. Also, results from the forecast could serve as an advisory or the need to re-strategize as a country. Therefore, determining the future pattern of insurance penetration will lead to the remedies that will increase the number of insured in the future. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.07841 |