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on Africa |
| By: | Kurtz, Gerrit; Roll, Stephan; Lossow, Tobias$cvon |
| Abstract: | In recent months, relations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia have deteriorated significantly. Previously separate disputes have become intertwined: namely the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the use of Nile waters and the disagreement between Ethiopia and Somalia regarding the recognition of Somaliland. The three countries use threats to improve their respective positions in these conflicts. While an interstate military escalation does not seem imminent at present, regional tensions are likely to rise, which could further empower the jihadist Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia. Germany and the European Union (EU) should recognise the highly complex interdependence of these lines of conflict, remind the countries concerned of their common interest in stabilising Somalia, and continue to advocate for dialogue in the Nile dispute. At the same time, it is also important to hold other influential actors more accountable to contribute to regional stability. |
| Keywords: | Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, Nile waters, recognition of Somaliland, jihadist Al-Shabaab militia, Abiy Ahmed, African Union (AU), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC), Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:306283 |
| By: | Chrispin Kamuikeni; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | Applying a Panel Fixed Effect model to a large dataset of migration and local weather conditions in 16 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study estimates the impacts of long-term weather aberrations on within-country migration. To address potential omitted variable bias, this study accounts for weather conditions in alternative places of residence–an aspect which has been overlooked by previous studies. Results establish a causal link between climate change and migration, but this effect is observed primarily in a block of West SSA countries. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long-term changes in weather (specifically rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long term changes in weather (rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. Quantitatively, this study finds that over the last 30 years, an average annual rainfall decline of 120mm increased internal migration by 14 percentage points while a sustained average temperature increase of 0.5°C resulted in an 8 percentage point rise in internal relocation. However, temperature fluctuations are found to lowered the odds of out-migration by 22 percentage points. Additional findings reveal that increasing temperatures force climate migrants to travel to much farther destination areas. However, we do not find evidence that adverse rainfall outcomes increase relocation distance. Additionally, We establish that climate migrants tend to relocate from rural districts to urban centers. Finally, We obtain evidence that climate-related mobility involves relocation of a family units, as suggested by the significance of climate mobility of young children (less than 12 years old). Meanwhile, when the same specifications are applied on East SSA, we find weak evidence of climate-related mobility in this region. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2024-003 |
| By: | Gaaitzen de Vries; Hagen Kruse; Emmanuel Mensah; Yabo Vidogbena; Kei-Mu Yi |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects via non-homothetic preferences, substitution and relative price effects, as well as comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine other major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We also do a similar set of calibrations for 11 developing Asian (DA) countries. Our main results are that domestic and foreign sectoral TFP are important drivers of structural change. Trade integration over time plays only a small role. However, trade is important as a transmission mechanism of foreign productivity trends. Finally, the drivers and mechanisms of industrialization are broadly similar in low-income SSA and DA countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade; structural change; input-output; low-income countries |
| JEL: | F11 F43 O11 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99314 |
| By: | Hassen, Sied (Environment and Climate Research Center); Damte, Abebe (Environment and Climate Research Center, Policy Studies Institute) |
| Abstract: | Studies document that micro and small enterprises are growing rapidly in Ethiopia. The industrial sector consumes a large proportion of electricity in the country. The growing number of micro and small enterprises is also creating pressure on electricity consumption. This may lead to power outages caused by overburdened generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. Routine outages also lead to increased costs associated with outage adaptations. Improved energy efficiency has spillover benefits by reducing power outages and this in turn allows more customers to access power and may also improve customer satisfaction and payment rates. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate firms’ use of energy efficiency and conservation measures and analyse the impact of these measures on their electricity consumption. We use data from a survey of 1000 micro and small enterprises in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Using a translog cost function model and a system of regression equations, we find that electricity and other factors of production such as labor found to be substitutes instead of being complementary. Where wages are low, firms may substitute manual labor for some of electricity-based operations. Further, the econometric results show that firms that use energy efficient method consume less electricity than those use conservation methods. The results have policy implication in terms of promoting energy efficiency and conservation methods. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficient technologies; energy conservation practices; enterprises; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | D22 Q40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2024_012 |
| By: | Hadjer Haned (ENSSEA - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée [Tipaza]); Saloua Chaouche (ENSSEA - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée [Tipaza]) |
| Abstract: | In the modern field of economic analysis, structural analysis techniques have emerged as invaluable tools for monitoring and understanding the structure of the economics' sectors dynamic. This article analyses structural change in the Algerian economy for the period 2015 -2021, based on a series of input-output tables. For this purpose, we used the powerful Rasmussen's structural decomposition method to inspect the structure of the economy and examined the evolving internal complexity of relationships and interdependencies, using key sector analysis to assess the strength of forward and backward linkages. The objective was to gain insights into the dynamics of this economy and to evaluate the extent to which it has undergone changes during this critical period witness of a multifaceted crisis. The findings from our analysis provide support for the hypothesis that the structural framework of the economy remained relatively stable over this period. While the broader structure exhibited signs of continuity, our investigation also revealed a modest enhancement in the cross-sector connections within the economy. These results could be used as a strong tool in terms of the relationships and interactions among various sectors, for the country's economic resilience and prospects for diversification. Indeed, over time we would expect economic growth and development to coincide with increasing internal complexity and perhaps durability. |
| Keywords: | Structural change economics' diversification multifaceted crisis Rasmussen's method key sectors, Structural change, economics' diversification, multifaceted crisis, Rasmussen's method, key sectors |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04820643 |