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on Africa |
| By: | Philip Abradu-Otoo; Joseph K. Acquah; James Attuquaye; Simon Harvey; Francis Loloh; Shalva Mkhatrishvili; Valeriu Nalban; Daniel Ngoh; Victor Osei; Michael Quansah |
| Abstract: | The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework. |
| Keywords: | Ghana; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/237 |
| By: | Francis Annan |
| Abstract: | We study the direct and indirect effects of randomized entry. In partnership with the two largest service providers in Ghana, we implement a three-step design that randomizes the entry of new financial mobile money vendors, who also sell non-financial goods/services, across local markets. This mixed financial and non-financial services setting is widespread and naturally emerges as the market entry approach for several real-world financial markets. Randomized entry increases firm conduct and service quality and decreases price-cost markups, indicating positive consumer surplus. We find evidence of within-market revenue reallocation and expansion for mobile money and a large services multiplier: revenues for non-financial goods/services increased (+20%), with aggregate service industry revenues increasing. These improvements emphasize the “real effects” of financial markets on the local economy, and come from adoption externalities and aggregate increase in household expenses. Entry increases local economic activity, and it does so not only by changing markets for digital financial services, but also by transforming the non-financial services sector. These effects are key ingredients for advancing basic and applied knowledge on firm entry in industry equilibrium. |
| JEL: | D18 D62 G20 G50 L22 L26 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33134 |