nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2023‒07‒17
six papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
Xiamen University Malaysia Campus

  1. Combining machine learning and market integration to improve maize price predictions in sub-Saharan Africa By Anderson, Patrese; Baylis, Kathy; Davenport, Frank; Shukla, Shraddhanand
  2. The modern day consequences, causes, and nature of kidnapping, terrorism, banditry, and violent crime in Nigeria: A comprehensive analysis. By Okwuwada, Nsirimovu
  3. Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes By Theshne Kisten
  4. Unravelling the Tapestry: Understanding the Factors Shaping Current Account Imbalances in Ghana By Yeboah, Samuel
  5. Trade Liberalization and Local Labor Markets in Morocco By Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso; Robertson, Raymond; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Zárate, Daniela Ruiz
  6. The Proposed Naira Redesign, the Ensuing Cash Crunch, and Their Implications on the Nigerian Economy – Evidence from Q1 2023 By Oyadeyi, Olajide

  1. By: Anderson, Patrese; Baylis, Kathy; Davenport, Frank; Shukla, Shraddhanand
    Keywords: International Development, Marketing, Research Methods/Statistical Methods
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Okwuwada, Nsirimovu
    Abstract: Abstract There have been several agitations in Nigeria, but none have degenerated into the current barbaric, horrendous, heinous, and despicable dimensions of carnage, massacres, and bloodletting orchestrated by terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, and other organized violent crime syndicates. This study takes a holistic approach using secondary data sources to examine the root causes of the modern-day prevalence of kidnapping, banditry, terrorist attacks, and other organized criminal activities in Nigeria. The study finds that unemployment, excess supply of young people, neglect of certain regions in the distribution of national wealth, lack of government visibility, lack of equal economic opportunity for all, uncontrolled influx of fire arms, poverty, and religious fanaticism contributes to the increasing rate of violent crime in Nigeria. The article finds that the nature of banditry, kidnapping, and terrorist attacks are similar, and the modes of attacks on civilian and government installations are also related. The government should thus become proactively visible throughout the nation via its security agencies and economic development agenda. Additionally, the government should educate local officials and traditional councils on contemporary methods for reporting and addressing violent groups in their communities.
    Keywords: Terrorism, Banditry Kidnapping, Violent crimes, Herdsmen, SAT, Religion, South-East, South-South, South-West, North-East, North- central, North-west, Middle Belt.
    JEL: A20
    Date: 2023–06–19
  3. By: Theshne Kisten
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt-growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector autoregression model is estimated which allows the transmission mechanism to be characterized by two distinct financial regimes: stressful versus normal.
    Keywords: South Africa, Regression analysis, Financial dynamics
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Yeboah, Samuel
    Abstract: This research aims to unravel the factors shaping current account imbalances in Ghana, with a focus on understanding the underlying causes and implications for the country's economic stability. The study explores the multifaceted nature of these imbalances by examining structural factors, exchange rate dynamics, monetary policy, external factors, and capital flows. It identifies limited diversification of the economy, inadequate infrastructure, and low productivity levels as significant structural constraints that hinder Ghana's ability to reduce import dependency and achieve a more balanced current account. Furthermore, it highlights the role of currency depreciation, inconsistent monetary policies, and inflationary pressures in contributing to trade imbalances and capital flight, exacerbating current account deficits. The study also considers external factors such as commodity price fluctuations, global trade patterns, and regional integration, which can influence Ghana's current account imbalances. Additionally, it explores the implications of these imbalances for external debt sustainability, terms of trade, and overall economic performance. The research provides policymakers and stakeholders with valuable insights into the factors driving Ghana's current account imbalances, informing the formulation of effective policy measures to address these imbalances and promote sustainable economic development.
    Keywords: Current account imbalances; Ghana; Trade deficit; Balance of payments; Structural factors; Diversification of the economy; Infrastructure; Productivity levels; Exchange rate dynamics; Monetary policy; Currency depreciation; Inflationary pressures; External factors; Commodity price fluctuations; Global trade patterns; Regional integration; Capital flows; Foreign direct investment; Portfolio investment; External debt sustainability; Terms of trade; Economic performance
    JEL: F32 F41 F43 F47 O11 O16
    Date: 2023–04–18
  5. By: Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso (World Bank); Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank); Zárate, Daniela Ruiz (Bank of Mexico)
    Abstract: Morocco's trade liberalization policies have promoted economic progress over the past two decades. However, effects on Morocco's local labor market outcomes vary. By combining three complementary approaches and modeling techniques, this paper estimates: (i) how trade agreements have increased trade flows, (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and mixed local labor market outcomes, and (iii) the relationship between firm employment and exports. Our results show that trade policy has increased trade flows, but this has led to mixed results for workers: increased trade has decreased informality but has failed to improve female labor force participation (FLFP). This appears to be due to a shift from female labor-intensive industries, such as apparel and textile sectors, to capital-intensive sectors that are predominantly male-intensive. Our firm level analysis confirms these results by showing that increase in employment from exports has occurred mainly in male, labor-intensive sectors.
    Keywords: trade policy, trade flows, labor market outcomes, firm dynamics
    JEL: F13 F16 O14 O19
    Date: 2023–06
  6. By: Oyadeyi, Olajide
    Abstract: Many articles had been published online regarding the proposed naira redesign and its possible consequences on the Nigerian economy ex-ante. This article however focuses on the naira redesign and its implications on the Nigerian economy ex-post, particularly in Q1 2023, when the policy took effect. To achieve this, the article highlights some facts about Nigeria’s economy, as well as the implications of the policy on economic activities, using trend analysis on a host of economic variables, with reference to the real GDP, PMI, and inflation. The trend analysis results showed that indeed, the cash-crunch policy affected economic growth and productive activities as real GDP and the PMI shrank. On the other hand, the article dismisses the notion that the inability to account for the high currency outside banks to currency in circulation ratio was the main cause of rising consumer inflation in Nigeria. Rather, the article revealed that the growth in money supply was induced by quasi-money activities which may have led to the rise in consumer prices.
    Keywords: Cash Crunch, Naira Redesign, Demand for Money, Nigeria, Q1 2023, Currency in Circulation, Currency Outside Banks, Velocity of Money
    JEL: E40 E41 E42 E5 E6
    Date: 2023–05–28

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