nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2023‒04‒17
seven papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
Xiamen University Malaysia Campus

  1. Analysis of Future International Trade and Logistics in Africa: Considering Major Risks and Opportunities in the Post COVID-19 World By Fukushima, Hiroyuki; Abe, Masahiro; Shibasaki, Ryuichi; Alves, Lucas; Takada, Yuki; Onodera, Hitoshi; Furuichi, Masahiko
  2. Modeling Determinants of Private Banks Profitability in Ethiopia By mohammed, habib
  3. Assessing the contribution of South African Insurance Firms to Systemic Risk By Zulu, Thulani; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
  4. What Trade-in-Value added databases tell us about Continental Integration – and what it means for the AfCFTA By Mold, Andrew; Munyegera, Kasim Ggombe; Mukwaya, Rodgers
  5. Does External Debt Drive Inflation in Sudan? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric ARDL approaches By Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud
  6. The Protective Role of Index Insurance in the Experience of Violent Conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia By Tekalign Gutu Sakketa; Dan Maggio; John McPeak
  7. Towards an Effective Taxpayer Complaint Handling Mechanism: The Case for a Tax Ombudsman in Uganda By Rukundo, Solomon

  1. By: Fukushima, Hiroyuki; Abe, Masahiro; Shibasaki, Ryuichi; Alves, Lucas; Takada, Yuki; Onodera, Hitoshi; Furuichi, Masahiko
    Abstract: Africa, which is expected to develop rapidly as a sizeable world market, is attracting attention as an attractive investment destination in various fields such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, ICT, and finance. In particular, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to stimulate African intra-region/international trade and further economic growth. On the other hand, there is concern that COVID-19 will impede the growth of African economies: real GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was -2.4% in 2020, and even after 2021, it has been pointed out that the African economy may lag behind the rest of the world. Thus, it is important to comprehensively consider risks such as COVID-19 after 2020 and other opportunities such as AfCFTA and to eliminate bottlenecks in logistics infrastructure that could become obstacles to economic growth in Africa. With the aim of clarifying the future vision of the international trade in Africa, this study developed multiple future scenarios considering risks and opportunities in Africa after the expansion of COVID-19 infection and uses the GTAP-RD (Recursive Dynamic) model and the GLINS (Global intermodal Logistics Network Simulation) model. The analysis using the GTAP-RD model revealed the transition of Africa's international trade for each future scenario and revealed that the most desirable society in the world as a whole will improve Africa's trade balance the most. The GLINS model analysis showed the regional spread of logistics infrastructure development effects, indicating that the spread of logistics infrastructure development will accelerate the spread of effects throughout Africa. Finally, we estimated Africa's future exports and imports using the GTAP-RD model again, using the logistics cost reduction rate from the GLINS model as the "ams" variable in the GTAP-RD model and found that it would increase intra-African trade and also increase exports to the rest of the region.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  2. By: mohammed, habib
    Abstract: Profitability of financial institutions play a vital role in determining the effectiveness and efficiency of the financial system globally and it is dominated by the banking industry. These banks generates profits that results panel data that requires panel model to analyze and explore determinant factors associated with its profitability. The aim of this article to model determinants of private banks profitability in Ethiopia during 2012–2021 considering its dynamic nature. Return on assets, return on equity, and net interest margin were used as profitability indicators and analyzed using dynamic panel model estimation methods based on system generalized moment estimation techniques. The exploratory data analysis result showed the profitability; return on asset was seems stable while return on equity was decreased and net interest margin was increased with decreasing rate. The model specification result showed one-step system generalized moment method estimation was an appropriate estimation technique as model estimation result directs lagged profitability, capital adequacy, asset quality and branch of banks have positive significant effect on private banks profitability. Similarly inflation rate and economic growth rate have positively determine private banks profitability on macroeconomic side. Despite to this results liquidity was significant negative bank specific determinant of private banks profitability in Ethiopia. The study result recommends consideration on capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, branch of banks for the private banks profitability. In addition, this study will call upcoming research to include other financial determinants suggests such as credit risk and non-performing loan with improving the estimation method of panel autoregressive distributed lag models for modeling private banks profitability in Ethiopia.
    Keywords: Dynamic Panel Model, Ethiopia, Generalized Moment Method, Panel Data, Private Banks, Profitability
    JEL: C10
    Date: 2023–03–16
  3. By: Zulu, Thulani; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
    Abstract: In light of the crucial contribution insurance firms make to global investment, this paper examines the extent of systemic risks facing emerging market insurance, with a particular focus on South Africa, one of the African continent's most prominent emerging economies. Contrary to past studies, the paper relies on delta conditional value at risk (∆CoVaR) based dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH model to this end. Moreover, the paper assesses how selected developed economies contribute to the systemic of the South African insurance industry. The results of the empirical analysis show that Santam, Sanlam, and Momentum Holdings account for the largest systemic risks. At the same time, the least contributors are Discovery and Liberty. Meanwhile, Australia and Japan appear to contribute the most to systemic risk in the South African insurance industry. Moreover, the paper finds that periods of economic turmoil significantly increased developed markets' systemic risk contributions to the South African insurance industry.
    Keywords: Delta conditional value at risk; dcc-gjr-garch; systemically important financial institutions.
    JEL: C58 F3 G22
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Mold, Andrew; Munyegera, Kasim Ggombe; Mukwaya, Rodgers
    Abstract: Recent literature has stressed that it is not so much how much a country trades that matters, but rather both the degree of value-addition locally and the extent to which an economy is integrated into regional or global value chains. Yet, with a few exceptions Africa is relatively under-researched in this field. While over recent decades the continent has experienced substantial increases in the ratios of exports and imports to GDP and forged new partnerships with emerging markets, its degree of integration in regional and global value chains remains low, even after accounting for the generally lower levels of development (Allard et al., 2016). This gap is indicative of the region’s unexploited potential to tap into value chains in selected sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and agro-processing, tourism, transport and textiles.This paper examines the policy and non-policy determinants of domestic value-added embedded in the exports of African countries, applying country fixed-effects regression to UNCTAD-EORA data covering the period 1990-2018. The paper finds that the main determinants of domestic value-addition are economic size (GDP and its per capita counterpart), the average level of tariffs and population size. But the econometric results also highlight differences among countries by resource endowment, with oil-exporting countries leading and land-locked non-resource-intensive countries lagging in domestic value addition. After providing an overview of the extent of value-addition in trade on the continent, the paper then draws conclusions about its implications for the effective implementation of the AfCFTA.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud
    Abstract: Purpose: This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings: The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically impact inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications: The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/Value: To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
    Keywords: External Debt, Exchange rate, Inflation, Money supply, NARDL, Sudan
    JEL: E31 E52 F34 O24
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa (German Institute of Development and Sustainability); Dan Maggio (Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University); John McPeak (Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University)
    Abstract: Droughts are among the leading causes of livestock mortality and conflict among pastoralist populations in east africa. To foster climate resiliency in these populations, index based livestock insurance (ibli) products have become popular. These products, which allow herders to hedge climate risk, often utilize remote-sensed data to trigger indemnity payouts, thus ameliorating moral hazard issues associated with standard insurance products. We study how one such program, implemented in the southern ethiopia, impacted the experience of violent conflict among participating households. Using causal mediation analysis, we show first that there is a strong link between rangeland conditions and violent conflict; a one-unit decrease in the standardized normalized difference vegetation index (zndvi) in the previous season is associated with a 0.3-1.7 percentage point increase in the likelihood of conflict exposure. Within the mediation framework, we leverage a randomized encouragement experiment and show that insurance uptake reduces the conflict risk created by poor rangeland conditions by between 17 and 50 percent. Our results suggest that social protection programs, particularly index insurance programs, may act as a protective factor in areas with complex risk profiles, where households are exposed to both climatic and conflict risks, which themselves may interact.
    Keywords: pastoralism, conflict, weather, index insurance, causal mediation
    JEL: D74 G52 O13 Q54
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Rukundo, Solomon
    Abstract: It is increasingly common in many jurisdictions around the world to find an independent government office where complaints against the tax administration can be submitted. Traditional mechanisms, such as tribunals and courts, may not be effective, as these are usually very slow and costly. Many governments have developed the institution of a tax ombudsman to safeguard taxpayers’ rights and improve the overall tax system. This paper makes the case for the establishment of a tax ombudsman in Uganda. It begins with examining the concept of an ombudsman in general, and a tax ombudsman in particular. The paper proceeds to highlight the limitations of the Uganda Revenue Authority, the country’s tax administrator, and its existing oversight bodies, which justify the need for a tax ombudsman. The paper further elaborates on other justifications for the establishment of this office. The paper then briefly examines five country case studies of a tax ombudsman in operation – the United Kingdom, United States, Australia, South Africa and Tanzania. Drawing from these case studies and other literature, the paper sets out the ideal powers and roles for a tax ombudsman in the Ugandan context.
    Keywords: Finance,
    Date: 2023

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