nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2023‒02‒27
six papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
Xiamen University Malaysia Campus

  1. January 2023 report on the progress of Ukrainian grains exports to Africa By Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
  2. Africa under a warming climate: The role of trade towards building resilient adaptation in agriculture By Henri Casella; Jaime de Melo
  3. Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: Evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach By Tuki, Daniel
  4. Armed groups' modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars By Marine Gassier
  5. Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa By Dr Jan Roan Neethling
  6. Trade liberalisation, market behaviour and food security: Evidence from Tanzania By Christian Estmann

  1. By: Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
    Abstract: We publish today the January 2023 report on the outcome of the project "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa”. It covers: Threats which are imposed by Russia to Global Food Security (by means of wheat weaponisation) Impact of war on Ukrainian agribusiness EU-Ukraine agri-shipments cooperation and challenges Report also recaptures the January 2023 developments of grain export shipments from Ukraine. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme ( The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli ( or to Bogdan Kostetsky (
    Date: 2023–02–09
  2. By: Henri Casella (Auteur indépendant); Jaime de Melo (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva)
    Abstract: The paper reports on evidence on how trade can help Africa adapt to Climate Change (CC) along three dimensions: (i) fast-onset events from short-lived extreme occurrences (floods, extreme temperatures); (ii) slow-onset events (rise in average temperatures and sea-level rise); (iii) trade facilitation policies. • Fast onset events: Trade reduces the amplitude of extreme events like a drought. But policy reactions to large shocks can increase the amplitude of the shock. During the South African drought of 2015-6, policies had spillovers in neighboring countries. Following the 2008-09 financial crisis, export restrictions by major crop exporters and reduction in tariffs by importers amplified the shock. Policy coordination is needed to control spillover effects.
    Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, Africa, Environmental goods
    Date: 2022–12–31
  3. By: Tuki, Daniel
    Abstract: Although the incidence of conflicts between Fulani nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers in Nigeria have risen significantly during the last decade, no study has, to the best of my knowledge, examined how these conflicts influence distrust of members of the Fulani ethnic group and the larger Muslim population, nor the conditions under which these conflicts, which are primarily about competition over land and water resources, morph into religious conflicts. Using novel survey data collected from Kaduna, the state with the third highest incidence of pastoral conflicts in Nigeria, this study fills these gaps. The regression results show that exposure to pastoral conflicts cause distrust of members of the Fulani ethnic group and Muslims; although the size of the effect is much larger for the Fulani compared to Muslims. This shows that the population in Kaduna tend to conflate the Fulani with Muslims. Religious polarization was found to catalyze the process of resource conflicts turning religious.
    Date: 2023–01–28
  4. By: Marine Gassier
    Abstract: What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments' ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers.
    Keywords: Post-conflict, Political regimes, Armed conflict, Political stability, Ethiopia, Somalia
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Dr Jan Roan Neethling (Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Northwest University, South Africa Author-2-Name: Abigail Stiglingh-Van Wyk Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Northwest University, South Africa Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: " Objective - The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, and the PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the past year. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. The objective is, therefore, to evaluate the effects of the increase in commodity prices on inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Methodology - The study utilised a quantitative methodological approach through the assessment of an econometric model that employed monthly data from January 2017 to May 2022. The paper utilized variables such as CPI, brent crude oil prices, PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Findings - Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long-run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). The results also indicated that oil prices still influence the basic prices of goods and services since all things need to be transported. Novelty - The results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI's and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are is reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Type of Paper - Empirical"
    Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil.
    JEL: E31 E37 E60 E63
    Date: 2022–12–31
  6. By: Christian Estmann (University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: The increasing dependency on food imports for food security in the Global South implies a higher vulnerability to trade shocks. Trade barriers, such as export restrictions on stable food crops, are commonly used by developing countries in times of crisis. Surges in international food prices raise the real incomes of the farmers selling food while hurting the net food consumers. Trade restrictions may stabilise the domestic availability and price of food for net consumers in the short run. However, the question remains how liberalisation after a long period of ad-hoc export restriction influences rural producers. This working paper examines the effects of lifting a maize export ban on farmers’ food security and market behaviour in Tanzania. Using data from the National Panel Surveys over multiple waves, the study employs a difference-in-difference methodology to analyse the association at the household and district level. The results suggests that farmers who sold maize under the ban reduced their maize production and shifted to other stable crops, becoming less commercialised and disconnected from the market after liberalisation. A borderline significant negative association on household-level dietary diversity and quality is observed in regards to food security.
    Keywords: Food Security, Export Ban, Food Trade, Tanzania, Market Integration
    Date: 2023–01–30

This nep-afr issue is ©2023 by Sam Sarpong. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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