nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2021‒08‒30
seven papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Knowledge Economy Classification in African Countries: A Model-Based Clustering Approach By Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich; Otero, Abraham; Andres, Antonio Rodriguez
  2. Polygyny, Timing of Marriage and Economic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa By Tapsoba, Augustin
  3. Logistics and trade flows in selected ECOWAS Countries: An empirical verification By Eriamiatoe Efosa Festus
  5. Chinese Investment in Ethiopia: Contribution, Challenges, Opportunities and Policy Recommendations By Gebrehiwot, Berihu Assefa; Gebreeyesus, Mulu; Weldesilassie, Alebel Bayrau
  6. Learning and Product Innovation Performance in Informal Enterprises: Evidence from Urban Ghana By Avenyo, Elvis Korku
  7. Money and Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics in Nigeria: A Multivariate GARCH Approach By Atoi, Ngozi Victor; Nwambeke, Chinedu G.

  1. By: Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich; Otero, Abraham; Andres, Antonio Rodriguez
    Abstract: Knowledge economy (KE) has been a central issue in the political economic literature of advanced economies, but little research has focused on the transition towards a KE in Africa. Using a latent profile analysis, six clusters of the KE were found in the region. The clusters range from very prepared with good performance in all KE dimensions (institutional, education, and innovation output) to very unprepared with low performance inf each KE dimension. Lastly, we offer policy recommendations that shed some light on the national and international economic policies towards a more knowledge-oriented environment. One such recommendation is that effective policies should consider both the similarities and dissimilarities of African knowledge economies. How precise that can be done is one direction future research can take.
    Keywords: Africa, model-based clustering; knowledge economy; cross-country comparisons; exploratory analysis
    JEL: C45 O10 O34 O35 O55 P00 P48
    Date: 2021–03–15
  2. By: Tapsoba, Augustin
    Abstract: This paper studies how local polygyny norms affect the equilibrium response of marriage markets to short-term changes in aggregate economic conditions. It develops a simple equilibrium marriage market framework with overlapping generations in which polygyny is modeled as a sequential one-to-one matching. The model generates predictions that are tested by revisiting the impact of rainfall shocks on the timing of marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa. Consistent with the model’s predictions, I find that the effect of droughts on child marriage is weaker where polygyny is more commonly practiced. The same shock leads to a large increase in the annual hazard of child marriage in monogamous areas but has no detectable effect in areas with high polygyny levels. In these areas, there is instead an increase in the market shares of young men that are looking for first/unique spouses at the expense of older men that are looking for second spouses. The differences in equilibrium outcomes on the marriage markets translate into differences in fertility onset and long term fertility levels.
    Keywords: Marriage market, local norms, polygyny, bride price, income shocks, informal insurance, Africa
    Date: 2021–08–25
  3. By: Eriamiatoe Efosa Festus
    Abstract: This study investigates the role of logistics and its six components on trade flows in selected Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) countries. The impact of other macro-economic variables on trade flows was also investigated. Ten countries were selected in eight years period. We decomposed trade flows into import and export trade. The World Bank Logistics performance index was used as a measure of logistics performance. The LPI has six components, and the impact of these components on trade flows were also examined. The fixed-effect model was used to explain the cross-country result that was obtained. The results showed that logistics has no significant impact on both Import and export, thus logistics play no role on trade flows among the selected ECOWAS countries. The components of logistics except Timeliness of shipments in reaching the final destination ( CRC ),have no impact on trade flows. Income was found to be positively related to imports. Exchange rate, consumption and money supply, reserve and tariff have no significant impact on imports. Relative import price has an inverse and significant relationship with imports. GDP has a positive and significant impact on export trade. The study also found FDI, savings, exchange rate and labour to have insignificant impact on exports. Finally, we found that logistics is not a driver of trade among the selected ECOWAS countries. The study recommended the introduction of the single window system and improvement in border management in order to reduce the cost associated with Logistics and thereby enhance trade.
    Date: 2021–08
  4. By: Nicholas M Odhiambo (University of South Africa)
    Abstract: Purpose – This study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries’ stage of development as proxied by their per capita income. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model. Findings – Although the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries. Practical implications – These findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries’ stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries. Originality/value – Unlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.
    Keywords: Granger Causality, Economic Growth, Exports, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: C33 F14 O41
    Date: 2021–01–01
  5. By: Gebrehiwot, Berihu Assefa; Gebreeyesus, Mulu; Weldesilassie, Alebel Bayrau
    Abstract: Recognizing the immense potential for greater Chinese investment promotion and its contribution to Ethiopia’s industrialization and acknowledging the gaps, this paper aims to conduct a rigorous research through analysis of secondary sources and qualitative survey of Chinese enterprise doing business in Ethiopia in various sectors. In this regard, the key policy questions that this study tries to answer are ‘the involvement in and the contribution to Ethiopia’s industrialization and the challenges and opportunities they face. Hence, the overall objective of this research will be to (i) assess the trends in Chinese enterprises involvement in Ethiopia’s industrialization for the last decade, (ii) inform both the Chinese government and Ethiopian government on key business barriers and market failures that are constraining Chinese business entry and growth in Ethiopia; (iii) investigate the immense untapped investment potential from China that can be attracted and opportunities that Ethiopia could offer to Chinese investors; and (iv) propose policy options on how to address the challenges and thereby maximize the opportunities to enhance Chinese investment towards Ethiopia’s industrialization.
    Keywords: Enterprise, Investment, China, Ethiopia, FDI
    JEL: E22
    Date: 2020–03–05
  6. By: Avenyo, Elvis Korku
    Abstract: Recognising that enterprises learn how to produce goods and services in the informal economy, this paper examines the effect of two learning processes (apprenticeship and ‘formal interactions’) on the product innovativeness of informal enterprises in Ghana. Employing unique survey data on 513 enterprises and the Type II Tobit model, our analyses reveal that apprenticeship, on the one hand, enhances the technological capability of enterprises leading to product innovativeness, while competitive formal interactions, on the other hand, provide important market feedback that enhances the innovativeness of enterprises. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings.
    Keywords: Innovation; Informal Sector; Learning; SMEs; Ghana; sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
    JEL: D22 L25 L53 O12 O17 O31
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Atoi, Ngozi Victor; Nwambeke, Chinedu G.
    Abstract: This study examines money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to access the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are dynamically linked negatively, suggesting that exchange rate (or interest rate) is inversely sensitive to interest rate (or exchange rate) in Nigeria. This result was substantiated by the estimated BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model. Furthermore, the effects of news (shocks spillover) are bi-directional across the markets. However, volatility spillover is unidirectional, from exchange rate to interest rate, suggesting that, calming the volatility in foreign exchange market does guarantee moderation of volatility in the money market, whereas the reverse is not the case. The results underscore the growing influence of foreign exchange market in the financial space of the Nigerian economy. Thus, the study recommends that foreign exchange policies aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability should be sustained, having found exchange rate to be more effective in moderating interest rate volatility in Nigeria.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, interest rate, multivariate GARCH, volatility spillover
    JEL: C4 E52 F31 G10
    Date: 2021–08–16

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