nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2020‒07‒13
five papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Exploring options for a universal old age pension in Tanzania Mainland By Twahir Khalfan; Elineema Kisanga; Vincent Leyaro; Faith Masekesa; Michael Noble; Gemma Wright
  2. Technological Trade Composition and Performance in African Countries By Blessing Chipanda; Matthew Clance; Steven F. Koch
  3. The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana By Amewu, Sena; Asante, Seth; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
  4. Parental divorces and children's educational outcomes in Senegal By Juliette Crespin-Boucaud; Rozenn Hotte
  5. The monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank- stance, communication and credibility By Alberto Coco; Nicola Viegi

  1. By: Twahir Khalfan; Elineema Kisanga; Vincent Leyaro; Faith Masekesa; Michael Noble; Gemma Wright
    Abstract: The provision of a universal old age pension is increasingly recognized as an important instrument for strengthening and extending social protection. A growing number of emerging economies, including East African countries, are introducing universal old age pensions to guarantee at least a basic level of social security. However, such a benefit has not been established in Tanzania Mainland, and a lack of adequate financing is viewed as one of the main constraints.
    Keywords: microsimulation, Old age, public pensions, Pensions, Social security, Tanzania
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Blessing Chipanda (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Matthew Clance (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Steven F. Koch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)
    Abstract: A number of studies have found that spillovers or other externalities associated with trade are sector specific. Yet trade linkages are typically analysed at the macroeconomic aggregates. We analyse Africa's trade composition spanning 1980-2015, using a disaggregated and detailed classification by technological levels. We find that Africa is a net importer of capital goods and its technological export composition has remained highly concentrated in primary goods, which has contributed to a decline in Africa's share of global exports. We also find that regions within Africa have similar technological export composition structures. A few notable countries that have managed to transform their export composition into more semi-processed and relatively high technology exports are the leading importers of capital goods, are better financially developed and better endowed with human capital, infrastructure, and institutions than other African countries.
    Keywords: Exports, imports, trade composition
    JEL: F10 F19 F60
    Date: 2020–06
  3. By: Amewu, Sena; Asante, Seth; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: The objective in this paper is to estimate the economic costs of COVID-19 policies and external shocks in a developing country context, with a focus on agri-food system impacts. Ghana is selected as a case study. Ghana recorded its first two cases of COVID-19 infection on 12 March 2020. The government responded by gradually introducing social distancing measures, travel restrictions, border closures, and eventually a partial, two-week “partial” lockdown in the country’s largest metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi. Social distancing measures have been enforced nationwide and include bans on conferences, workshops, and sporting and religious events, as well as the closure of bars and nightclubs. All educational institutions are also closed. The partial lockdown measures in urban areas directed all residents to remain home except for essential business, prohibited non-essential inter-city travel and transport, and only essential manufacturing and services operations were permitted to continue (The Presidency 2020). At the time the lockdown was announced, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth estimate for 2020 downwards from 6.8 to 1.5 percent (MoF 2020), although the Minister warned that growth could fall further if lockdown measures were extended. The lockdown was initially extended for a third week but was officially lifted on 20 April. Social distancing measures remain in place nationwide, although a gradual easing of restrictions commenced in June. Ghana’s borders remain closed at the time of writing.
    Keywords: GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; economic impact; agrifood systems; models; pandemics; recovery; policies; Covid-19; Social Accounting Matrix (SAM); lockdown; Covid-19 policy responses; economic cost
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Juliette Crespin-Boucaud (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Rozenn Hotte (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of divorce on investments in children's human capital at the primary school level in Senegal. We use a siblings fixed-effects estimation that exploits the variations in the age of the siblings at the time of divorce while controlling for family-invariant omitted variables. We compare children who were old enough to have been enrolled in primary school to their younger siblings, for whom enrollment decisions had not yet been taken at the time of the divorce. We find that younger siblings are more likely than their older siblings to have attended primary school, but there are no differences between siblings when considering primary school completion. Overall, divorce does not seem to have negative consequences on whether children have ever been enrolled in primary school.
    Keywords: Education,Senegal,Divorce
    Date: 2020–05
  5. By: Alberto Coco; Nicola Viegi
    Abstract: This paper analyses the evolution of the monetary policy stance, communication and credibility of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) since 2000, when it adopted a flexible Inflation Targeting (IT) regime to facilitate the achievement of its price stability mandate. Empirical results indicate that the stance became accommodative after the global financial crisis of 2009, with a tendency of the implicit inflation target to increase, while after 2014 it turned tighter and the implicit target started declining. In addition, after the crisis the monetary policy has become less active, with a lower response of policy rates to output and inflation gaps. At the same time, applying Natural Language Processing techniques to the SARB monetary policy statements shows a move towards a more ‘forward-looking’ and balanced communication strategy, complementing to some extent the less frequent changes of monetary policy rates. Finally, the behavior of market interest rates and inflation expectations shows that monetary policy has been gradually better at anchoring expectations, especially in the last few years. The analysis helps to understand the interaction between policy, communication and credibility by showing a consistent picture across all different aspects of monetary policy making.
    Date: 2020–06–19

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