nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2017‒12‒03
eight papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries By Richard Allen; Taz Chaponda; Lesley Fisher; Rohini Ray
  2. Managing electoral and political competition in Africa: lessons from Ghana’s 2016 general elections By Aniekwe, Chika Charles
  3. Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa By Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides; Mustafa Yenice
  4. Is there a strategy in China’s health official development assistance to African countries? By Marlène GUILLON; Jacky MATHONNAT
  5. Measuring Party System Change: A Systems Perspective By Zim Nwokora; Riccardo Pelizzo
  6. The domestic turn: business processing outsourcing and the growing automation of Kenyan organisations By Mann, Laura; Graham, Mark
  7. Introduction: Globalization, African Workers and the Terms of Inclusion By Meagher, Kate; Manna, Laura; Bolt, Maxim
  8. An Examination of the Neutrality of US Money Supply on the Nigerian Economy By Nwanne, Nkem

  1. By: Richard Allen; Taz Chaponda; Lesley Fisher; Rohini Ray
    Abstract: More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries–– Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process.
    Keywords: Zambia;Congo, Republic of;Congo, Democratic Republic of the;Zimbabwe;Uganda;Togo;Tanzania;Sudan;Swaziland;Sub-Saharan Africa;South Africa;Sierra Leone;Seychelles;Senegal;Rwanda;Nigeria;Niger;Namibia;Gabon;Mozambique;Middle East;Mauritius;Mauritania;Mali;Malawi;Madagascar;Liberia;Lesotho;Kenya;Guinea-Bissau;Guinea;Ghana;Gambia, The;Ethiopia;Eritrea;Equatorial Guinea;Djibouti;Comoros;Chad;Central African Republic;Benin;Cameroon;Burundi;Burkina Faso;Botswana;Angola;budget, medium-term expenditure frameworks, public financial management, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, General, sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2017–09–11
  2. By: Aniekwe, Chika Charles
    Abstract: African elections are usually highly contested and competitive because of the winner takes all making of most of the political systems on the continent. Since the third wave of democracy (Huntington, 1991), due to the competitive nature of these elections, attention is usually focused on making these elections peaceful and often relatively credible. Little attention has been paid to documenting good practices across these retinue of elections with the bid to providing election practitioners opportunity to learn from good practices that could be applied in similar context and circumstances. This paper is an attempt at that. It chronicles some of the important measures deployed by different stakeholders towards successful 2016 General Elections in Ghana. It recommends that managing electoral competition in African election requires commitment of political stakeholders, development of mechanisms and measures for both political and judicial redress and commitment to rule of law through independence of the judiciary.
    Keywords: elections; democracy; political parties; Ghana; electoral commission
    Date: 2017–11
  3. By: Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides; Mustafa Yenice
    Abstract: This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional environment. Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration. Growth spells are sustained by fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation, monetary policy geared toward low inflation, outward-oriented trade policies, and structural policies that reduce market distortions, as well as supportive external environment and improvements in democratic institutions. Overall, determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.
    Keywords: Africa;Angola;Benin;Botswana;Burkina Faso;Burundi;Cameroon;Central African Republic;Chad;Comoros;Djibouti;Equatorial Guinea;Eritrea;Ethiopia;Gabon;Gambia, The;Ghana;Guinea;Guinea-Bissau;Kenya;Lesotho;Liberia;Madagascar;Malawi;Mali;Mauritania;Mauritius;Middle East;Mozambique;Namibia;Niger;Nigeria;Rwanda;Senegal;Seychelles;Sierra Leone;South Africa;Sub-Saharan Africa;Swaziland;Tanzania;Uganda;Togo;Zambia;Zimbabwe;Congo, Democratic Republic of the;Congo, Republic of;Growth, accelerations, duration analysis, Africa JEL Classification Numbers: O11, O47, C41, O55, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    Date: 2017–09–08
  4. By: Marlène GUILLON; Jacky MATHONNAT (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))
    Abstract: Chinese health official development assistance (ODA) to Africa has largely increased since the third Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2006. Even if China now ranks among the top ten bilateral donors for health aid in Africa few studies have assessed the determinants of Chinese health ODA to African countries. Our objective is to study the factors associated with Chinese health ODA to Africa in the 2006-2013 period. We investigate the role of three types of factors that might influence the allocation of Chinese health aid: the needs of recipient countries, their merits and the self-interest of China. Chinese health ODA is measured using the AidData's Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset, 2000-2014,Version1.0. In total, 345 health aid projects were financed by China in Africa between 2006 and 2013, accounting for a total amount of 2014 US$764 million. On these 345 projects, 143 (41%) correspond to the dispatch of medical teams, 107 (31%) to the sending of medical equipment or drugs and 76 (22%) to health infrastructure construction or rehabilitation. We study the factors associated with the number of health projects and the amount of health ODA received each year by African countries. We stratify the analysis by types of projects (medical team dispatches/infrastructure and medical equipment or drugs projects). Over the 2006-2013 period, Chinese health aid appeared responsive to the economic needs of African countries and unrelated to the quality of their governance. While Chinese aid allocation decision favored countries with limited ability to finance health projects our results show no link between direct health needs of African countries and the volume of Chinese health aid they received. We find no strong evidence that Chinese health aid allocation decisions favored natural resources-rich countries while our results only show small magnitude associations between economic ties to China and the volume of Chinese health ODA received. Finally, our results confirm the idea that health aid might me used by China as part of its foreign policy since non-adherence to the one-China policy makes the receipt of Chinese health aid very unlikely.
    Keywords: Health aid, Aid allocation, China, Africa.
    JEL: F35
    Date: 2017–11
  5. By: Zim Nwokora (Deakin University, Australia); Riccardo Pelizzo (Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: The term ‘party system’, explained Giovanni Sartori, refers to the pattern of interactions among major parties. That pattern can be represented as a type and treated as a proper unit of analysis. When ‘party system’ is defined in this way, it becomes clear that the scholarship lacks a direct measure of ‘party system change’. The Sartori approach to party system change is not the only legitimate way to understand this concept, but it does target an undoubtedly important feature of political systems—namely, the stability of major-party interactions. This article develops a new indicator, the index of fluidity, which measures the extent of such stability. Applying the index to Africa, we show there is significant cross-national variation in fluidity and weak correlation between fluidity and (Pedersen) volatility.
    Keywords: party systems, party system change, Africa, Sartori typology, fluidity
    JEL: D02 D72 H00 H11 H89 O00 O10 O43 O55
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: Mann, Laura; Graham, Mark
    Abstract: After observing the growth of the Indian and Filipino Business Processing Outsourcing sectors, Kenyan policy-makers and managers made substantial investments in international internet infrastructure and BPO marketing campaigns. While observers continue to discuss the sector in terms of its international work opportunities, in recent years the sector has increasingly focused on contracts sourced from Kenyan and other East African clients. The government has also refocused efforts on attracting international BPO companies. This domestic turn signals both the difficulties of gaining access to overseas work due to the power of incumbents and the increasing use of the internet and ICT-enabled automation within Kenyan organizations. In effect, better connectivity has enabled a two-way globalisation of services: Kenyan BPO companies have been able to access some international work opportunities but the connectivity has also contributed to the inflow of international service companies and business practices into Kenya. The conclusion examines what these shifts might entail for the sector and its workers in future.
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2016–03–22
  7. By: Meagher, Kate; Manna, Laura; Bolt, Maxim
    Abstract: This introductory article explores the transformative potential of global connections for African workers. It challenges recent claims that African workers have become functionally irrelevant to the global economy by examining the shift of global demand for African workers from formal to increasingly informalised labour arrangements, mediated by social enterprises, labour brokers and graduate entrepreneurs. Focusing on global employment connections initiated from above and from below, we consider why global labour linkages have tended to increase rather than reduce problems of vulnerable and unstable working conditions within African countries, and consider the economic and political conditions needed for African workers to capture the gains of inclusion in the global economy.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–03–22
  8. By: Nwanne, Nkem
    Abstract: Literature on the classical dichotomy has focused on single economies with empirical evidence either substantiating or refuting the neutrality of money hypothesis. However this paper focuses on the neutrality of foreign money supply – in this case the US broad money supply – and its neutrality in both the long and short run on the real and nominal variables of the Nigerian economy. Based on data culled from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and time series methods such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Johansen trace and maximum eigen value tests and the Vector Error Correction estimation; the US money supply was found to be non-neutral in both the long and short runs. US monetary policy was found to have profound impact on Nigerian interest rates followed by the consumer price index and the gross domestic product. This paper concludes that the US monetary policy must be a veritable factor considered in the design of monetary policy rules.
    Keywords: Neutrality, US Money Supply, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product
    JEL: E51
    Date: 2017–10–27

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