nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2017‒08‒13
five papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Econometric Analyses of Return and Shock Spillovers: The case of Nigerian Financial Markets By Kazeem Isah
  2. Trade Relations between Central and Eastern European and Sub-Saharan African Countries By Marinov, Eduard
  3. The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa; Size and Determinants By Leandro Medina; Andrew W Jonelis; Mehmet Cangul
  4. The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda By Kati Kraehnert; Tilman Brück; Michele Di Maio; Roberto Nisticò
  5. Does Voluntary Risk Taking Affect Solidarity? Experimental Evidence from Kenya By Strobl, Renate; Wunsch, Conny

  1. By: Kazeem Isah (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan)
    Abstract: The study give a new perspective to the interrelationship between/ or among the Nigerian financial markets namely stock, bond and FX markets by determine whether the conditional volatility spillovers across the three markets is constant or dynamic in nature. Using daily financial data set for the period 2011 to July 2014, we model return and shock spillovers via VARMA-CCC-GARCH model after careful considerations of relevant tests and model selection criteria. Finding from our empirical estimate shows that return in one market is significantly sensitive to returns in the other markets. More so, the individual market (i.e. stock, bond and FX) appears to be significantly vulnerable to cross-market shock spillovers.
    Keywords: Return-Spillover, Shock-Spillover, Shork-Persistence, VARMA-CCC-GARCH
    Date: 2017–08
  2. By: Marinov, Eduard
    Abstract: The paper presents the main features of trade relations between Central and East Europe (CEE) and Sun-Saharan Africa (SSA). The main focus is on trade with countries within the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) framework. The timeframe under review is 2003-2013. The first section presents the main features of EU trade relations with African EPA regions, summarizing trade dynamics and commodity structure. Section two analyses trade relations between CEE EU Member States and African EPA countries and regions, discussing the dynamics, commodity structure and direction of trade. Finally some conclusions are drawn on the trends in trade relations with SSA regarding both the EU in general, as well as some specifics in the development of trade flows of CEE countries with a special attention paid on Bulgaria’s participation.
    Keywords: International trade, Central and East Europe (CEE), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)
    JEL: F10 O55
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Leandro Medina; Andrew W Jonelis; Mehmet Cangul
    Abstract: The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.
    Keywords: Uganda;South Africa;Rwanda;Senegal;Seychelles;Sierra Leone;Sudan;Swaziland;Tanzania;Togo;Zambia;Zimbabwe;Congo, Democratic Republic of the;Congo, Republic of;Djibouti;Equatorial Guinea;Eritrea;Ethiopia;Angola;Benin;Burkina Faso;Burundi;Cameroon;Central African Republic;Chad;Comoros;Kenya;Lesotho;Liberia;Gabon;Gambia, The;Ghana;Guinea;Guinea-Bissau;Madagascar;Malawi;Mali;Mauritania;Mauritius;Mozambique;Namibia;Niger;Nigeria;Informal economy, MIMIC estimation methods, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2017–07–10
  4. By: Kati Kraehnert (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)); Tilman Brück (International Security and Development Center (ISDC), Berlin, Germany and Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ)); Michele Di Maio (Università di Napoli Parthenope); Roberto Nisticò (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda on fertility outcomes. We study the effects of violence on both the timing of the first birth after the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. We analyze individual-level data from several Demographic and Health Surveys, using event history and count data models. The paper contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences subsequent fertility. First, the type of violence exposure as measured by child death as well as by the death of a woman’s sibling. Second, the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the commune-level sex ratio. Results indicate that the genocide has heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide reduces the time to the first birth after the genocide and increases the total number of births in the post-genocide period. Experiencing a sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers fertility in the long run. The effect is strongest if a woman loses a younger sister. Finally, the genocide-induced reduction in the sex ratio has a strong negative impact on fertility, both in terms of the timing of the first birth and the total number of births after the genocide.
    Keywords: Child death, fertility, genocide, Rwanda, sex ratio, sibling death.
    Date: 2017–08–07
  5. By: Strobl, Renate (University of Basel); Wunsch, Conny (University of Basel)
    Abstract: In this study we experimentally investigate whether solidarity, which is a crucial base for informal insurance arrangements in developing countries, is sensitive to the extent to which individuals can influence their risk exposure. With slum dwellers of Nairobi our design measures subjects' willingness to share income with a worse-off partner both in a setting where participants could either deliberately choose or were randomly assigned to a safe or a risky project. We find that when risk exposure is a choice, willingness to give is roughly 9 percentage points lower compared to when it is exogenously assigned to subjects. The reduction of solidarity is driven by a change in giving behaviour of persons with the risky project. Compared to their counterparts in the random treatment, voluntary risk takers are seemingly less motivated to share their high payoff with their partner, especially if this person failed after choosing the risky project. This suggests that the willingness to show solidarity is influenced by both the desire for own compensation and attributions of responsibility. Our findings have important implications for policies that interact with existing informal insurance arrangements.
    Keywords: solidarity, risk taking, Kenya
    JEL: D81 C91 O12 D63
    Date: 2017–07

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