nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2017‒05‒21
five papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Chinese investment in Ghana’s manufacturing sector: By Tang, Xiaoyang
  2. The Socio-Economic Determinants of Crime in South Africa: An Empirical Assessment By Haroon Bhorat; Adaiah Lilenstein; Jabulile Monnakgotla; Amy Thornton
  3. Foreign market selection of emerging multinational corporations: evidence from South African and Egyptian corporations By Mustafa Sakr; Andre Jordaan
  4. Migration, Forced Displacement and Fertility during Civil War: A Survival Analysis By Philip Verwimp; Davide Osti; Gudrun Ostby
  5. Can at Scale Drug Provision Improve the Health of the Targeted in Sub-Saharan Africa? By Adrienne M. Lucas; Nicholas L. Wilson

  1. By: Tang, Xiaoyang
    Abstract: This paper uses Ghana as a case study to illustrate the extent to which Chinese manufacturing firms are driving manufacturing in an African country. Through a combination of desktop and field research, the author finds that the total number of Chinese manufacturing investments in Ghana indeed increased during past decade, but quite a few projects have been abandoned or not implemented because of the unfavorable investment environment. Small and large manufacturing projects can be found in different sectors, such as plastics, steel, pharmaceuticals, and others. All of the manufacturing investments target local or regional markets, either taking advantage of local raw materials or seeing opportunities in a market with little competition. Transitioning from trading to manufacturing investment and clustering are identified as the main patterns by which Chinese investors establish themselves in Ghana. Chinese firms source simple raw materials from local suppliers but import industrial supplies from abroad. Learning from Chinese business models, a few local businessmen have started their own manufacturing projects, mostly in the plastics recycling sector, but a lack of capital appears to keep some local players from moving up the value chain. Ghana’s weak economy itself is limiting technology transfer and local linkages between Chinese firms and Ghanaians.
    Keywords: case studies; manufacturing; industry; secondary sector; investment; markets; technology; technology transfer; supply chain; economics; economic activities, cluster; FDI; local linkage,
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Haroon Bhorat; Adaiah Lilenstein; Jabulile Monnakgotla; Amy Thornton (University of Cape Town; Director)
    Abstract: South Africa possess some of the highest reported crime statistics in the world, making the study of crime and its determinants of particular interest in this context. Three socio-economic factors can initially be identified as playing an important role in our understanding of the incidence of crime: Unemployment, income levels, and the prevalent level of income inequality. This research uses small area level data from the South African census to derive socio-economic variables and link this to crimes reported by the South African Police Service (SAPS). We briefly discuss the literature surrounding crime and socio-economic indicators, both internationally and in South Africa. We then turn to an overview of the other factors that can influence crime rates, before presenting the classic economic theory of crime in more detail. Finally, we discuss our conceptual approach, which draws on the literature and the economic model to determine what we can expect from the results to follow.
    Keywords: Crime, South Africa, unemployment, poverty, inequality, property crime, robbery crime, violent crime, precinct-level income
    JEL: I31 J21 J24 J28 O1 P46
    Date: 2017–04
  3. By: Mustafa Sakr; Andre Jordaan
    Abstract: As literature remains sparse regarding emerging African multinational corporations (EAMNCs), this article focuses on examining the key pull factors (i.e. host country macroeconomic specifications) influencing the foreign market selection of South African and Egyptian multinational corporations as a case study of EAMNCs. Based on estimation of Random Effect and Negative Binomial models, it has been found that the market size, resources endowment and proximity between home and host country are significant pull drivers of both Egyptian and South African MNCs. While not affecting Egyptian MNCs, assets availability, trade openness, the service sector quality, export to host country and the official exchange rate of the receiving destination and quality of institutions have an influential impact on foreign market selection of the South African investors. Inflation neither affects the attention of Egyptian firms nor South Africans to choose a certain market to invest in.
    Keywords: South African MNCs, Egyptian MNCs, emerging African MNCs, Emerging MNCs, pull factor determinants of OFDI
    JEL: P45 F21 F23
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Philip Verwimp; Davide Osti; Gudrun Ostby
    Abstract: The civil war in Burundi (1993-2005) caused a massflow of refugees into neighboring countries as well as a large number of internally displaced persons. In fact, half of the population was displaced at least once during the course of the conflict. The aim of this study is to explore to what extent migration during the conflict impacted fertility outcomes. Using retrospective data on birth and residential histories at the mother-year level from a nationally representative survey conducted in August 2002, we examine the impact of war and migration on the probability of first births and on birth spacing. A parametric survival regression model is adopted to predict the hazard of having an additional child on a sample of about 4,500 Burundian women. Our results suggest that the risk of an additional pregnancy is higher in years of forced displacement of the mother, whereas it is lower in the case of residence in the forced displacement site. We do not find a statistically significant effect different from no migration in the years that the women voluntary migrated. Fertility however sharply increases once the women resided in the migration site.
    Keywords: fertility; forced displacement; migration; civil war; Burundi
    JEL: C25 C41 J13 N37 N47
    Date: 2017–05–09
  5. By: Adrienne M. Lucas; Nicholas L. Wilson
    Abstract: The single largest item in the United States foreign aid health budget is antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the treatment of HIV/AIDS. Many supply- and demand-side factors in sub-Saharan Africa could cause smaller than expected epidemiological effects of this at scale drug provision. We provide what appears to be the first quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of at scale drug provision in a poor country, using the phased roll-out of ART in Zambia, a setting where approximately 1 in 6 adults are HIV positive. Combining anthropometric data from national household surveys and a spatially-based triple difference specification, we find that local ART introduction increased the weight of high HIV likelihood adult women. This finding from a clinically difficult setting suggest that the generalized challenges of scalability of ART for adult health in sub-Saharan Africa are surmountable.
    JEL: H51 I12 I15 I18 O12 O15
    Date: 2017–05

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