nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2016‒08‒28
five papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. An Empirical Analysis of the Structure of Imports in Sub-Sahara Africa By AYODOTUN, Ayorinde; FARAYIBI, Adesoji
  2. Dynamics of the War to Peace Transition in Northern Uganda By Anonymous
  3. Modelling the Determinants of Import Demand in Sub-Sahara Africa By AYODOTUN, Ayorinde; FARAYIBI, Adesoji
  4. Urbanization and Environmental Quality in Africa By Effiong, Ekpeno
  5. Determinants of business loan default in Ghana By Ellis Kofi, Akwaa-Sekyi; Portia, Bosompra

  1. By: AYODOTUN, Ayorinde; FARAYIBI, Adesoji
    Abstract: The economy of most developing countries, especially those in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been subjected to periodic fluctuations in the world market since the implementation of structural adjustment program (SAP) due to the impact of trade liberalization. This has no doubt affected the structure of imports in this sub region since then. This paper provides an empirical study of the structure of imports in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1995 to 2012. In its methodology, trend analysis is used to profile the structure of imports in SSA. Evidence from the analysis showed that the description of the trend of imports and its determinants in the Sub-Saharan Africa has particularly enabled policy makers to be conversant with the structure of imports for better policy decision that will drive domestic production and trade efficiency. The study among others thus recommends a stabilization policy that will reduce the dependence on imports and reduce import demand in SSA.
    Keywords: Imports; Relative Prices; Total Income; Import Structure, Sub-Sahara Africa
    JEL: F0 F02 F1 F13
    Date: 2016–08–10
  2. By: Anonymous
    Abstract: The protracted and brutal armed conflict between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in Northern Uganda spanned over two decades and left a trail of social and economic upheaval in its wake. At the height of the conflict thousands were left displaced while in Karamoja sub-region, in North- Eastern Uganda, armed cattle rustling stripped many of their most prized assets. With the return to peace after the cessation of hostilities in 2006 and completion of the disarmament process in Karamoja, this study investigates the dynamics of the war to peace transition in Northern Uganda. More specifically, we examine how the households in Northern Uganda have responded to the return of peace and how this is reflected in their livelihood patterns, demand for social services, asset accumulation, demographic and migration trends and their levels of trust for each other and their local leaders.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2015–05
  3. By: AYODOTUN, Ayorinde; FARAYIBI, Adesoji
    Abstract: This study employed panel data from 1995 to 2012 to model the determinants of imports in sub-Sahara Africa. Also, it assesses the long-run and short-run elasticities of aggregate imports and their components and considers the impact of trade liberalization. Fixed effects and Random effect estimation were done for the model. The results indicate that domestic income, foreign exchange reserves and trade liberalization all play significant roles both in the short-run and long-run import demand levels in sub-Sahara Africa. Therefore, trade policy authorities who aim at reducing imports to correct balance-of-payments imbalances in the long run should focus their efforts on policies that will reduce purchasing power at the macroeconomic level and implement policies that will ensure an increased domestic supply.
    Keywords: Import demand; Relative Prices; Income; Determinants, Sub-Sahara Africa
    JEL: F1 F13
    Date: 2016–08–19
  4. By: Effiong, Ekpeno
    Abstract: Africa’s rapid urbanization pose challenges for her sustainable development. This paper investigates the environmental impact of urbanization for 49 African countries from 1990 to 2010. Using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework, a recently developed semi-parametric panel fixed-effects regression technique, and two atmospheric air pollutants, namely carbon dioxide (CO2) and ambient particulate matter PM10 emissions, the evidence indicates that urbanization reduces environmental pollution. The semi-parametric analysis reveals that the result is more pronounced with PM10 but weaker for CO2 emissions. Moreover, there is no evidence to confirm the Kuznets hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and environmental pollution. To reap the benefits of urbanization, there is need for a strategic urban planning with basic infrastructure investment that promotes a green environment.
    Keywords: Urbanization; Environmental Quality; STIRPAT; Semi-parametric method; Africa.
    JEL: C14 C33 O55 Q2 Q20 Q5 R11
    Date: 2016–07–31
  5. By: Ellis Kofi, Akwaa-Sekyi; Portia, Bosompra
    Abstract: The initiation, funding, servicing and monitoring of loans by financial intermediaries has been done without regard to some critical factors which could have averted the likelihood of default. The study aimed at measuring the extent that owner-specific, borrower-specific, loan and lender-specific characteristics could determine the probability of loan default. The study used logistic regression for 224 business customers of a bank in Ghana from its nation-wide branches. The study found that owner’s extra income (ownership characteristics), multiple borrowing, diversion of loan purpose (borrower characteristics), loan price, loan purpose, loan age, repayment plan (loan characteristics) and underfunding (lender characteristics) significantly determined the probability of business loan default. The overall model predicted up to 78.5% of variations in the likelihood of default. The hierarchy of strong determinants given by their odd ratios were loan purpose (47.9 times), underfunding (19.2 times), diversion of loan purpose (11.7 times) multiple borrowing (9.4 times) and owner’s extra income (8.2 times). The study can conclude that financial intermediaries should be wary of the credit granting process taking cognisance of ownership, borrower, loan and lender characteristics especially the significant predictors. Combining quantitative and qualitative variables as determinants of default could be considered in future.
    Keywords: borrower-specific characteristics, default, financial intermediaries, lender characteristics, loan characteristics, ownership characteristics
    JEL: G21 G32
    Date: 2015–11

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