nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2016‒07‒30
nine papers chosen by
Sam Sarpong
The University of Mines and Technology

  1. Primary Commodity Booms and Busts Emerging Lessons from Sub-Saharan Africa By UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa
  2. Building the integrated inequality database and the seven sins ofinequality measurement in Sub-Saharan Africa By Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Bruno Martorano; Bruno Martorano
  3. The Recent Growth Resurgence in Africa and Poverty Reduction: Assessing the Context and Evidence By Augustin K. Fosu
  4. Socio-Economic Impact of Ebola Virus Disease in West African Countries A call for national and regional containment,recovery and prevention By UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa
  5. The Effect of BRICS Trade Relations on South Africa’s Growth By Adrino Mazenda
  6. How does Market Access for Smallholders affect Export Supply? The Case of Tobacco Marketing in Malawi By Wouter Zant
  7. How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas By Jones Odei Mensah; Paul Alagidede
  8. Should I stay or should I go ? internal migration and household welfare in Ghana By Molini,Vasco; Pavelesku,Dan; Ranzani,Marco
  9. Pirates of Somalia : crime and deterrence on the high seas By Do,Quy-Toan; Ma,Lin; Ruiz Ortega,Claudia

  1. By: UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa (UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa)
    Abstract: Commodity boom is one of the major drivers of economic growth in Africa over the past decade. Most African countries experienced appreciable growth to the extent that sub-Saharan Africa was rated as the second fastest growing region globally between 2000 and 2010. Over the past one year, however, the rising trend of commodity prices is giving way to a declining trend. Most of the primary commodities such as gold, iron ore, crude oil, cotton and cereal that have been sustaining most countries have experienced tumbling prices since October 2013.
    Keywords: Africa; Commodity
    JEL: D13
    Date: 2015–10
  2. By: Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Bruno Martorano (University of Florence); Bruno Martorano (University of Florence)
    Keywords: inequality; africa; inclusive growth
    JEL: O13 Q18 O32
    Date: 2016–06
  3. By: Augustin K. Fosu
    Abstract: While economic growth in Africa has resurged substantially since the mid-to-late 1990s, the amount of poverty reduction seems much less spectacular. Building on other studies, the paper explores the translation of the recent growth to poverty reduction using 1985-2013 PovcalNet (World Bank) data. It assesses the relative abilities of various panel-data methodologies to predict poverty changes based on income-inequality decompositions. Surprisingly, SYSGMM performs substantially worse than Fixed Effects and Random Effects. The analysis is conducted for both the $1.25 and $2.00 poverty lines, and for the ‘spread’ and ‘depth’ of poverty, as well as for the usual popular measure, the headcount ratio. Although income growth appears to be the main force behind poverty reduction in Africa, the decomposition reveals striking differences across countries with respect to the relative roles of inequality and income.
    Keywords: Growth resurgence; income; inequality; poverty reduction; Africa
    JEL: D31 I32 O11 O49 O55
    Date: 2016
  4. By: UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa (UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa)
    Abstract: This report is unique. It is the first report to undertake an assessment of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) for each of the 15 West African countries, breaking away from the tradition of focusing on the three epicentre countries. It is also the first to assess the impact of EVD on poverty incidence and food security in both the three epicentre countries and other non-West African countries. The estimation approach of the socio-economic impact, which allows for consistency checks, is also different from that of other studies.
    Keywords: Africa; Commodity
    JEL: D13
    Date: 2015–02
  5. By: Adrino Mazenda
    Abstract: The article addressed the central issue on whether South Africa’s joining of the BRICS has led to a sustainable growth as was envisaged. An econometric assessment was done using the Autoregressive Redistributive modelling on quarterly data from 1990 to 2014. Empirical results were insignificant to explain the long-run relationship between South Africa’s trade, direct foreign investment and growth with the BRIC countries. The short-run trade effect was little to instil any significant effect on South Africa’s growth. BRICS trade does not Granger Cause growth in South Africa. Trade and investment policy should be reviewed to correct the negative trade effect.
    Keywords: BRICS; Trade; Economic Growth.
    JEL: F13 F43
    Date: 2016–01–11
  6. By: Wouter Zant (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)
    Abstract: Transaction costs play a key role in the behaviour of smallholders in developing countries. We investigate smallholder tobacco cultivation in Malawi, Malawi’s major export crop, and exploit the introduction of an additional tobacco auction floor to measure the impact of a reduction in transaction costs on smallholders’ decisions on tobacco crop area and production. Estimations are based on annual data by Extension Planning Area, from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, combined with data from other sources. A 10% reduction in transport cost is shown to lead to an increase in crop area and production of around 4% and 2.5%, respectively. Supply response runs along the extensive margin: both area and production increase, but production slightly less, leading to a decrease in yield, most likely because tobacco cultivation expands to less suitable areas and/or less productive farmers. In view of the non-experimental nature of the data, we confirm impacts by estimating a dose response function using generalised propensity scores. Supply response increases substantially within a distance to auction floor of less than 60km. We find no empirical support for conversion of crop area from maize and other crops into tobacco.
    Keywords: transaction costs; market access; subsistence farming; food & cash crops; Malawi; Africa
    JEL: D23 O13 O55 Q11 Q13
    Date: 2016–07–25
  7. By: Jones Odei Mensah; Paul Alagidede
    Abstract: This paper examines the dependence structure between two developed and four emerging African stock markets in a copula framework. Using daily data from January 2000 to April 2014, our empirical results show that dependence structure between African and international stocks varies overtime, but generally weak. There is asymmetric and weak tail dependence for all the countries, implying stock return co-movement varies in bearish and bullish markets and that the dependence is generally not strong in extreme market conditions. We also find that extreme downward stock price movements in the advanced markets do not have significant spillover effects on Africa’s emerging stock markets
    Keywords: Coupla, Quantile, Tail, dependence, Comovoment, African Stock Markets, Spillover
    JEL: C32 F36 F37 G10 G11 G15
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Molini,Vasco; Pavelesku,Dan; Ranzani,Marco
    Abstract: This papers investigates to what extent internal migration contributes to improving households'welfare in Ghana. Using the most recent and nationally representative household survey (Ghana Living Standards Survey 2012/13), the estimates indicate that on average migration increases consumption significantly, and the effect is driven by households migrating from inland regions to the coastal areas of the country. The analysis also finds heterogeneous effects by gender and educational attainment, with migrant households headed by males and highly educated individuals faring significantly better than migrant households headed by females and low-educated individuals. The paper shows convincing evidence that the positive impact of migration on consumption is attributable to a physical mobility effect rather than changes in labor force status or sector of economic activity. However, the migration process in Ghana has important downsides, such as the brain drain and disruption of the social fabric in the communities originating migration. Future research in this area is warranted to have a more comprehensive picture of the social impact of migration in Ghana.
    Date: 2016–07–20
  9. By: Do,Quy-Toan; Ma,Lin; Ruiz Ortega,Claudia
    Abstract: Piracy off the coast of Somalia took the world by surprise when, within a six-year span (2005-2011), as many as 1,099 ships were attacked, among which more than 200 were successfully hijacked. In 2012 however, attacks had plummeted with no new hijacking reported between 2013 and mid-2015. The paper quantitatively investigates the roles of two crime deterrence measures widely believed to be responsible for the collapse of Somali piracy: the deployment of international navies in pirate-infested waters and the provision of armed security guards onboard vessels. Using unique data on attacks, hijacks, and ransoms to calibrate a structural model of Somali piracy, the paper estimates the elasticity of crime with respect to deterrence and highlights the positive and negative spillovers generated by the private adoption of onboard armed security. The paper discusses counterfactual scenarios obtained by varying the intensity and composition of deterrence measures.
    Date: 2016–07–20

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