nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2014‒01‒17
forty-one papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Democracy and Education: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community By Manoel Bittencourt
  2. The Case for Direct Transfers of Resource Revenues in Africa-Working Paper 333 By Shantayanan Devarajan, Marcelo Giugale
  3. Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade? By Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu
  4. Does migration foster exports ? evidence from Africa By Ehrhart, Helene; Le Goff, Maelan; Rocher?, Emmanuel; Singh, Raju Jan
  5. Women's empowerment across the life cycle and generations: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa By Florence Arestoff; Elodie Djemai
  6. The Effects of Teacher Strike Activity on Student Learning in South African Primary Schools By Gabrielle Wills
  7. Multinationals in Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Linkages and Institutional Distance By Lucia Pérez-Villar; Adnan Seric
  8. Does malaria control impact education? A study of the Global Fund in Africa By Maria Kuecken; Josselin Thuilliez; Marie-Anne Valfort
  10. Does Financial Liberalization, Spur Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries; Panel Unit Root and Panel Vector Error Correction Tests By Dandume, Muhammad Yusuf; A.C., Dr.Malarvizhi
  11. Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa By Kirsten Thompson; Renee van Eyden; Rangan Gupta
  12. Planning for Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power in South Africa: Identifying Cost-Effective Deployment Strategies Using Spatiotemporal Modeling-Working Paper 340 By Kevin Ummel
  14. Political Economy of growth and poverty in Burkina Faso: Power, Institutions and Rents By Estelle Koussoubé; Augustin Loada; Gustave Nebié; Marc Raffinot
  15. The New Transparency in Development Economics: Lessons from the Millennium Villages Controversy By Michael Clemens, Gabriel Demombynes
  17. Transitions in a West African Labour Market: The Role of Social Networks By Christophe Nordman; Laure Pasquier-Doumer
  18. Union of the Comoros: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver of a Performance Criterion By International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
  20. Do the Poor Benefit from Devolution Policies? Evidences from Quantile Treatment Effect Evaluation of Joint Forest Management By Dambala Gelo; Steven F. Koch; Edwin Muchapondwah
  21. Self-reported health care seeking behavior in rural Ethiopia: Evidence from clinical vignettes By Mebratie, A.D.; Van de Poel, E.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Abebaw Ejigie, D.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
  23. Coping with shocks in rural Ethiopia By Debebe, Z.Y.; Mebratie, A.D.; Sparrow, R.A.; Abebaw Ejigie, D.; Dekker, M.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
  26. South-South Migration By Campillo Carrete, B.
  30. Intergenerational Mobility and Interpersonal Inequality in an African Economy By Lambert, Sylvie; Ravallion, Martin; Van de Walle, Dominique
  31. Enrolment in Ethiopia’s Community Based Health Insurance Scheme By Derseh, A.; Sparrow, R.A.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
  32. Inputs, Gender Roles or Sharing Norms? Assessing the Gender Performance Gap Among Informal Entrepreneurs in Madagascar By Christophe Nordman; Julia Vaillant
  33. "Effects of School Quality on Student Achievement: Discontinuity Evidence from Kenya" By ADRIENNE M. LUCAS; ISAAC M. MBITI
  35. What explains Rwanda's drop in fertility between 2005 and 2010 ? By Bundervoet, Tom
  36. Mixed Method Evaluation of a Passive Health Sexual Information Texting Service in Uganda-Working Paper 332 By Julian Jamison, Dean Karlan, Pia Raffler
  37. Contract Farming Risks: A Monte Carlo Assessment By Glenn P. Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo
  38. Let’s Talk About the Money: Spousal Communication, Expenditures and Farm Production By Chen, Joyce J.; Collins, LaPorchia
  39. Analyzing Local Institutional Change By Helmsing, A.H.J.
  40. Ship incident risk in the areas of Tubbataha and Banc d’Arguin: A case for designation as Particular Sensitive Sea Area? By Knapp, S.; Heij, C.; Henderson, R.; Kleverlaan, E.
  41. Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique By Giovanni Melina; Yi Xiong

  1. By: Manoel Bittencourt (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate whether democracy in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has had any impact on education during the 1980-2009 period. The results, based on panel time-series analysis (we use the Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Fixed Effects with Instrumental Variables estimators), strongly suggest that democracy has played an important role in widening access to education in the region. These results are significant not only because democracy is in its infancy in the region and to make it work is an aim in itself in Africa, but also because education (a noble aim in itself) is an important determinant of growth and development. All in all, democracy, and the better governance that tends to be associated with it, is playing not only its expected redistributive role, but also an indirect, nevertheless significant and important, role on prosperity in the community.
    Keywords: Democracy, education, SADC
    JEL: H52 I25 O11 O55
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Shantayanan Devarajan, Marcelo Giugale
    Abstract: Noting that Africa’s resource-rich countries have not translated their wealth into sustained economic growth and poverty reduction, this paper shows that by transferring a portion of resource-related government revenues uniformly and universally as direct payments to the population, some countries could increase both private consumption and the provision of public goods, and thereby reduce poverty and enhance social welfare. We make the case based on theoretical considerations and explore how these direct dividend payments would look in practice in a group of selected African countries.
    Keywords: Africa, extractive industries, poverty, public goods, direct dividend transfers
    JEL: H41 H5 I3 O10 O13 O15 Q3
    Date: 2013–07
  3. By: Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu
    Abstract: The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
    Keywords: Domestic investment;China;Sub-Saharan Africa;Exports;Trade;Spillovers;China, sub-Saharan Africa, investment, trade, spillover, panel data, econometrics
    Date: 2013–12–17
  4. By: Ehrhart, Helene; Le Goff, Maelan; Rocher?, Emmanuel; Singh, Raju Jan
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the impact of migration on export performance and more particularly the effect of African migrants on African trade. Relying on a new data set on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, the authors estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with endogeneity. The results first indicate that the pro-trade effect of migration is higher for African countries, a finding that can be partly explained by the substitution between migrants and institutions (the existence of migrant networks compensating for weak contract enforcement, for instance). This positive association is particularly important for the exports of differentiated products, suggesting that migrants also play an important role in reducing information costs. Moreover, focusing on intra-African trade, the pro-trade effect of African migrants is larger when migrants are established in a more geographically and ethnically distant country. All these findings highlight the ability of African migrants to help overcome some of the main barriers to African trade: the weakness of institutions, information costs, cultural differences, and lack of trust.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2014–01–01
  5. By: Florence Arestoff (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL); Elodie Djemai (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL)
    Abstract: (english) Does female empowerment evolve over the life cycle, and has it changed across generations? We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys covering a sample of about 191,000 adult women to evaluate the age, period and cohort effect regarding individual attitudes to marital violence. Pseudopanel data are constructed from repeated cross-sections from five African countries in the 2000s. The estimates show that, over the life cycle, women tend to think that marital violence is less and less justifiable, and that younger cohorts are less likely than older cohorts to view marital violence as justifiable, even controlling for education. In the full age-period-cohort decomposition, the age and period effects are the most important. Age effects are driven by changes in labor-force status, household composition and parenthood. _________________________________ (français) L'autonomisation des femmes, leur "empowerment", évolue-t-elle tout au long de leur cycle de vie ? S'est-elle renforcée au fil des générations ? A partir de données issues des Enquêtes Démographiques et de Santé portant sur un échantillon de 191 000 femmes adultes, nous estimons les effets d'âge, de période et de cohorte sur le refus de la violence conjugale, pris comme mesure de l'empowerment. Nous construisons un pseudo-panel en mobilisant des données de plusieurs vagues d'enquêtes consécutives menées dans cinq pays d'Afrique Sub-Saharienne au cours des années 2000. Les estimations montrent qu'en terme de cycle de vie, plus les femmes vieillissent, moins elles considèrent la violence conjugale comme justifiable. Parallèlement, en terme de générations, les femmes des plus jeunes cohortes ont une moindre probabilité d'accepter la violence conjugale, à niveau d'éducation donné. Dans la décomposition Age-Période-Cohorte, les effets de l'âge et de la période d'enquête se révèlent être les plus importants. On montre également que les effets de l'âge sont en partie expliqués par les changements de la situation des femmes sur le marché du travail, la composition de leur ménage et leur rôle de parent.
    Keywords: Empowerment, marital violence, age-period-cohort, pseudo-panel, Sub-Saharan Africa, violence conjugale, âge-période-cohorte, pseudo-panel, Afrique Sub-Saharienne.
    JEL: J12 J16 O10 I31
    Date: 2013–12
  6. By: Gabrielle Wills (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether teacher strikes affect student achievement at the primary school level in South Africa. A cross-subject analysis with student fixed effects is used to eliminate sources of endogeneity bias at the school and student level. Results indicate that teacher strike participation negatively affects learning for students in the poorest three quarters of schools in South Africa. A negative effect size as large as ten per cent of a standard deviation is observed. There is also evidence that more marginalised students, both in terms of socio-economic status and academic performance, are affected most negatively by strike action. However, application of a technique by Altonji, Taber and Elder (2005) indicates that it is not possible to rule out that measured strike effects may be driven by omitted variable bias. The student fixed effects strategy fails to adequately control for unobserved teacher characteristics that may influence both a teacher’s decision to strike and student achievement.
    Keywords: teachers, strikes, trade unions, student achievement, South Africa
    JEL: I21 J51 J52 J24
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Lucia Pérez-Villar; Adnan Seric
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of institutional distance in the establishment of domestic linkages by multinational enterprises in a cross- section of 19 Sub- Saharan countries. Investors’ familiarity with formal and informal procedures in the host country lowers uncertainty and facilitates networking with local firms. Hence, a similar degree of institutional development boosts linkages between domestic firms and multinationals. Using a novel dataset from the 2010 Africa Investor Survey by UNIDO we find that institutional distance in terms of contract enforcement deters the domestic linkage in host countries with worse institutions relative to the origin country. Additionally, institutional distance matters more for multinationals from the north. The paper sums to the literature on domestic linkages by including the understudied institutional dimension, to the still scarce literature on South- South FDI in least developed countries and contributes to the definition of clearer targets for foreign investment policies
    Keywords: Multinational Firms, South- South, Backward Linkages, Institutions
    JEL: F14 F23 O19
    Date: 2014–01
  8. By: Maria Kuecken (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Marie-Anne Valfort (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: We examine the middle-run eff ects of the Global Fund's malaria control programs on the educational attainment of primary schoolchildren in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we exploit geographic variation in pre-campaign malaria prevalence (malaria ecology) and variation in exogenous exposure to the timing and expenditure of malaria control campaigns, based on individuals' years of birth and year surveyed. In a large majority of countries (14 of 22), we find that the program led to substantial increases in years of schooling and grade level as well as reductions in schooling delay. These countries are those for which pre-campaign educational resources are the highest. Moreover, although by and large positive, we nd that the marginal returns of the Global Fund disbursements in terms of educational outcomes are decreasing. Our findings, which are robust to both the instrumentation of ecology and use of alternative ecology measures, have important policy implications on the value for money of malaria control eff orts.
    Keywords: Malaria, Sub-Saharan Africa, Education, Quasi-experimental
    Date: 2014–01–06
  9. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Armin Zeinali (Queen’s University, Canada)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop a model to arrive at a joint optimizing strategy for capital budgeting for the construction of new school buildings and for the renovation of existing schools. This model provides a practical tool for ranking construction projects so as to yield the maximum positive impact on the education system. A key aspect of the model is that it provides the optimal mix of renovation and new construction that should be undertaken under a fixed budget constraint. The model is applied to a sample dataset from the education sector of Limpopo Province, South Africa, in order to quantify the benefits of using the model.
    Keywords: education, cost-effectiveness, school location, school construction, school repair, South Africa
    JEL: D61 I28 H52 H75
    Date: 2014–01
  10. By: Dandume, Muhammad Yusuf; A.C., Dr.Malarvizhi
    Abstract: This paper examines the linkage among financial liberalization, economic growth and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan African countries (SSA). The study applies the recent panel Co-integration and vector error correction mechanism to address the heterogeneity and cross-border interdependence over the period of 1980 to 2010. The results reveal that economic growth is positively associated with poverty reduction and financial liberalization coefficients are positively related to economic growth. It implies that financial liberalization causes economic growth. However, the coefficients of financial liberalization are not significant in the poverty equation suggests that financial liberalization does not have direct impact on poverty reduction in the six Sub-Saharan African countries. This implies that the financial liberalization effects of poverty are upon contingent on the distributional changes introduced by the growth and the configuration of institutions and policies that supported the liberalization process and particularly, the existence or otherwise of good governance.
    Keywords: Liberalization, poverty, economic growth, financial repression
    JEL: G0
    Date: 2014–02
  11. By: Kirsten Thompson (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: The importance of financial instability for the world economy has been severely demonstrated since the 2007/08 global financial crisis, highlighting the need for a better understanding of financial conditions. We use a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa previously constructed from 16 financial variables to test whether the rolling-window estimated FCI does better than its individual financial components in forecasting key macroeconomic variables, such as output growth, inflation and interest rates. The concept of forecast encompassing is used to examine the forecasting ability of these variables controlling for data-mining. We find that the rolling-window estimated FCI has out-of-sample forecasting ability with respect to manufacturing output growth at the one, three and six month horizons, but has no forecasting ability with respect to inflation and interest rates.
    Keywords: Financial conditions index, forecast encompassing, data-mining, financial crisis
    JEL: C22 C53 G01
    Date: 2013–12
  12. By: Kevin Ummel
    Abstract: South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in coming decades. The challenge is to turn laudable aspirations into concrete plans that minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy intermittent WSP technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected hourly power generation for onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and concentrating solar power technologies across South Africa. A simple power system model simulates the economic and environmental performance of different WSP spatial deployment strategies in 2040, while ensuring a minimum level of system reliability. The results suggest that explicit optimization of the location and relative quantities of WSP technologies has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of greenhouse gas abatement compared to more conventional planning approaches. It is estimated that advanced modeling techniques could save South Africa on the order of $100 million per year (present value) by 2040. The data and techniques introduced here utilize opensource satellite data and software to minimize the cost of analysis. The approach could be translated to other contexts, providing low-cost, early-stage information to guide long-term infrastructure planning as countries prepare to exploit WSP at scale. Additional work is needed to incorporate transmission constraints and costs and embed the model in a probabilistic framework capable of identifying deployment strategies that are spatially robust to uncertainty in future technology and fuel costs.
    Keywords: poverty, inequality, economic development
    JEL: Q40 Q42 Q47
    Date: 2013–09
  13. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey); Katarzyna Pankowska (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
    Abstract: The main objective of the study is to estimate an annual income increase of land constrained Ethiopian households, now growing maize, from either shift to the mono-cropping of red haricot beans or to the intercropping the beans with maize. The study revealed that mono-cropping of red haricot beans is more profitable for the households compared to either maize production or intercropping. The households, however, are reluctant to shift to the mono-cropping practice of red haricot beans production. This can be explained by the level of risk faced by the households in case of crop failure. The Ethiopian households with the limited land holding are generally reluctant to mono-cropping of any commodity. The economic net benefits of the red haricot beans production arising to the different stakeholders, including the government of Ethiopia, were also estimated. A sensitivity analysis was used to determine the main risk factors of the activity.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, pulses, red haricot beans, value chain, intercropping, mono-cropping, pro-poor interventions, chronic food insecurity, poverty reduction, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  14. By: Estelle Koussoubé (PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa, IRD, UMR DIAL); Augustin Loada (University of Ouagadougou); Gustave Nebié (UNICEF, Dakar); Marc Raffinot (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: (english) This paper is an attempt to assess the relevance of the use of the North, Wallis and Weingast (2009) framework to explain the performances of Burkina Faso in terms of economic growth and development. The political history of Burkina Faso has been very unstable until president Campaoré took power in 1987. Since then, the stability has been based on low intensity violence, with bursts of open violence like those of the mutinies of 2011. This “stability” is based on the balance of power between two main “elite” groups, the army and the traditional chiefs. Trade unions, the Catholic Church and Donors also play a role, especially in case of trouble. The political class in power and its cronies are extracting rents by creating de facto monopolies, which enables them to tame violence, to a certain extent. The paradox is that the Burkinabe economy is growing steadily (GDP per capital grew at an average 1.5 per cent rate since independence), rather smoothly in the medium run – one of the best records in West-Africa. Because of high inequality, this impressive growth is far from inclusive. _________________________________ (français) Nous évaluons dans ce document la pertinence de l’approche de North, Wallis and Weingast (2009) pour expliquer les performances du Burkina Faso en termes de croissance économique et de développement. L’histoire politique du Burkina Faso a été très agitée avant que le président Campaoré prenne le pouvoir en 1987. Depuis, la stabilité repose sur une violence de faible intensité, avec des explosions sporadiques de violence ouverte, comme les mutineries de 2011. Cette « stabilité » repose sur un équilibre des pouvoirs entre deux principales « élites », l’armée et les chefs traditionnels. Les syndicats, l’église catholique et les bailleurs de fonds jouent également un rôle, notamment en cas de troubles. Le groupe qui détient le pouvoir avec ses affidés extrait des rentes en créant des monopoles de fait, ce qui leur permet de maintenir la violence sous contrôle, du moins dans une certaine mesure. Le paradoxe est que l’économie burkinabè connaît une croissance soutenue (le PIB par tête a cru à un taux de 1,5 % en moyenne depuis l’indépendance), et de manière assez stable à moyen terme, ce qui constitue une des meilleures performances en Afrique de l’Ouest. Du fait d’une inégalité élevée, cette croissance assez impressionnante ne bénéficie pas à tout le monde.
    Keywords: Burkina Faso, Limited Access Order, Long term growth, Political economy, Croissance à long terme, Economie politique, Institutions, Ordre social à accès limité.
    JEL: O11 O43 O55
    Date: 2014–01
  15. By: Michael Clemens, Gabriel Demombynes
    Abstract: The Millennium Villages Project is a high profile, multi-country development project that has aimed to serve as a model for ending rural poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. The project became the subject of controversy when the methodological basis of early claims of success was questioned. The lively ensuing debate offers lessons on three recent mini-revolutions that have swept the field of development economics: the rising standards of evidence for measuring impact, the “open data” movement, and the growing role of the blogosphere in research debates. In this paper, Michael Clemens and Gabriel Demombynes discuss how a new transparency is changing the debate about what works.
    Keywords: Millennium Villages Project, impact evaluation, transparency, open data
    JEL: F35 O12 O22
    Date: 2013–09
  16. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Chun-Yan Kuo (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada); Sener Salci (Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, UK)
    Abstract: In this paper we develop an analytical general equilibrium framework to measure the foreign exchange premium and the premium for non-tradable outlays for a country. The framework allows us to capture in a consistent manner the impacts of the sourcing of funds and their expenditure on tradable and non-tradable goods and services of investment projects. An application of the model is carried out for 20 countries in Africa. The results show that the foreign exchange premiums range from 4.00% to 9.50% and the premium for non-tradable outlays from -1.75% to 1.50%. The empirical values depend on a number of factors, including the indirect taxes, production subsidies and international trade distortions of a country. These premiums should be incorporated into the economic evaluation of investment projects.
    Keywords: Distortions, taxes, subsidies, foreign exchange premium, premium for non-tradable outlays, tradable goods, Africa
    JEL: D58 H23 H43 O55 P45 R13
    Date: 2013–12
  17. By: Christophe Nordman (IRD, UMR 225 DIAL); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (IRD, UMR 225 DIAL)
    Abstract: (english) This paper sheds light on the role of social networks in the dynamics of a West African labour market, i.e. in the transitions from unemployment to employment, from wage employment to self-employment, and from self-employment to wage employment. It investigates the effects of three dimensions of the social network on these transitions: its structure, the strength of ties and the resources embedded in the network. For this purpose, we use a first-hand survey conducted in Ouagadougou on a representative sample of 2000 households. Using event history data and very detailed information on social networks, we estimate proportional hazard models for discrete-time data. We find that social networks have a significant effect on the dynamics of workers in the labour market and that this effect differs depending on the type of transition and the considered dimension of the social network. The network size appears to not matter much in the labour market dynamics. Strong ties however play a stabilizing role by limiting large transitions. Their negative effect on transitions is reinforced when they are combined with high level of resources embedded in the network._________________________________ (français) Dans cet article, nous analysons le rôle des réseaux sociaux dans la dynamique d'un marché du travail en Afrique de l'Ouest, en nous intéressant aux transitions du chômage vers l'emploi, de l'emploi salarié vers l’emploi indépendant et enfin de l’emploi indépendant vers l’emploi salarié. Les données d’une enquête originale que nous utilisons permettent d’appréhender les réseaux sociaux dans trois de leurs dimensions, à savoir sa structure, la force des liens et des ressources intégrées dans le réseau, et d’analyser les effets différenciés de chacune de ces dimensions sur ces transitions. Ces données, collectées à Ouagadougou en 2009, rassemblent les biographies professionnelles de 2000 ménages et sont représentatives à l’échelle de la ville. En nous appuyant sur des modèles de risques proportionnels, nous constatons que les réseaux sociaux ont un effet significatif sur la dynamique des travailleurs et que cet effet diffère selon le type de transition et la dimension considérée du réseau social. La taille du réseau semble joué un rôle mineur au regard des deux autres dimensions. Des liens forts jouent un rôle stabilisateur en limitant les grandes transitions. Leur effet négatif sur les transitions est renforcé quand ces liens forts sont combinés à un niveau élevé de ressources du réseau.
    Keywords: Social Network, Kinship, Labour Market Dynamics, Event History Data, Survival Analysis, Burkina Faso, Réseaux sociaux, parentèle, dynamique du marché du travail, enquête biographique, modèle de durée, Burkina Faso.
    JEL: D13 J24 L14
    Date: 2013–10
  18. By: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
    Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY � Comoros is in the last year of a multi-year economic and structural adjustment program and has made significant progress in stabilizing the economy. Further progress has also been made on the structural front. The program has and continues to receive the support of a broad range of stakeholders. Macroeconomic developments are broadly as expected under the ECF arrangement. Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2013 and average inflation is expected to be less than 3 percent. While official transfers and remittances have remained strong, international reserve holdings are expected to decline somewhat, mainly due to strong imports that more than offset a sizeable increase in exports. Performance under the ECF-supported program through end-June was broadly satisfactory. All but one of the performance criteria and all indicative targets for end- June were met. Most structural benchmarks were also met. However, fiscal performance weakened in the third quarter of 2013. Increases in capital spending, mainly on road construction in anticipation of receipts that did not materialize, caused the end- September indicative targets on net credit to the government and the domestic primary balance to be missed. However, additional fiscal measures taken subsequently should allow stabilization gains to be broadly preserved. The authorities are requesting a waiver for the non-observance of the performance criterion on net credit to the government at end-June 2013. Staff supports this request and recommends completion of the sixth and final review under the ECF arrangement.
    Keywords: Extended Credit Facility;Fiscal policy;Poverty reduction strategy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria waivers;Comoros;
    Date: 2013–12–20
  19. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey); Katarzyna Pankowska (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of white pea beans production in the context of a pro-poor intervention. The aim of the intervention is to graduate chronically food-insecure households from poverty through an increase of their annual income by US$365. The households have a limited land holding of only 0.25 ha and are currently growing maize. The assistance is coming from a loan enabling mechanism allowing the households to benefit from a subsidized interest rate. The interest rate on the loans is set at 15 percent as compared to the approximately 48 percent free market interest rate. The study revealed that the main risk factor is the international price for white pea beans. The commodity is traditionally perceived as a “food for donkeys” has a very limited demand in the local market. Ethiopia already exports white pea beans, hence, there is a ready market for the commodity. As in case of any internationally tradable commodity, however, the market price of white pea beans will fluctuate independently of domestic market conditions.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, pulses, white pea beans, value chain, mono-cropping, pro-poor interventions, chronic food insecurity, poverty reduction, sustainable development, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  20. By: Dambala Gelo (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Steven F. Koch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Edwin Muchapondwah (School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, Republic of South Africa)
    Abstract: Existing literature have rarely evaluated distributive effect of Joint Forest Management (JFM) augmented with improved market linkages for non-timber forest products nor have they accounted for heterogeneity in the welfare effects. We assess the distributional impact of a unique JFM in Ethiopia in which additional support for improved market linkages for non-timber forest products was provided. The analysis is based on matching and instrumental variable (IV) methods of quantile treatment effects (QTE) evaluation using household data from selected rural villages of Gimbo district, in southwest Ethiopia. The results confirm that the intervention affect outcomes heterogeneously across the welfare distribution. Specifically, the program was found to raise welfare for only those along upper half (median and above) of welfare distribution. Thus, we infer that the program is not pro-poor, and, therefore, is not equity enhancing. Our analysis also revealed that such distributional bias of the program benefit arises from elite capture.
    Keywords: Market Linkage, Joint Forest Management, Quantile Treatment Effects, Welfare Distribution
    Date: 2013–12
  21. By: Mebratie, A.D.; Van de Poel, E.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Abebaw Ejigie, D.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2011, Ethiopia rapidly expanded its health-care infrastructure recording an 18-fold increase in the number of health posts and a 7-fold increase in the number of health centers. However, annual per capita outpatient utilization has increased only marginally. The extent to which individuals forego necessary health care, especially why and who foregoes care are issues that have received little attention in the context of low-income countries. This paper uses five clinical vignettes covering a range of context-specific child and adult-related diseases to explore the health-seeking behavior of rural Ethiopian households. We find almost universal preference for modern care. There is a systematic relationship between socioeconomic status and choice of providers mainly for adult-related conditions with households in higher consumption quintiles more likely to seek care in health centers, private/NGO clinics as opposed to health posts. Similarly, delays in care-seeking behavior are apparent mainly for adult-related conditions. The differences in care seeking behavior between adult and child related conditions may be attributed to the recent spread of health posts which have focused on raising awareness of maternal and child health. Overall, the analysis suggests that the lack of health-care utilization is not driven by the inability to recognize health problems or due to a low perceived need for modern care but due to other factors.
    Keywords: Ethiopia, clinical vignettes, foregone care, health care seeking behavior
    Date: 2013–02–04
  22. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate the economic feasibility of modern beekeeping activities versus traditional beekeeping in the context of pro-poor interventions directed to improve the livelihood of the chronically food insecure group of households in Ethiopia. The option of the initial use of a transitional (less expensive) technology with a later move to the modern beekeeping practices was also evaluated. This transition option initially looked as a promising mechanism taking into consideration limited capital savings and access to financial resources of the target group of beneficiaries. The study, however, revealed that the option of using transitional beehives eventually faces the same level of the financial constraint, while significantly reducing the income of the households during the first three years.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, small holders’ honey production, honey value chain, modern beekeeping, transitional beekeeping, pro-poor interventions, chronic food insecurity, modern beehives, poverty reduction, sustainable development, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  23. By: Debebe, Z.Y.; Mebratie, A.D.; Sparrow, R.A.; Abebaw Ejigie, D.; Dekker, M.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
    Abstract: Based on household survey data and event history interviews undertaken in a highly shock prone country, this paper investigates which shocks trigger which coping responses and why? We find clear differences in terms of coping strategies across shock types. The two relatively covariate shocks, that is, economic and natural shocks are more likely to trigger reductions in savings and in food consumption while the sale of assets and borrowing is less common. Coping with relatively idiosyncratic health shocks is met by reductions in savings, asset sales and especially a far greater reliance on borrowing as compared to other shocks. Reductions in food consumption, a prominent response in the case of natural and economic shocks is notably absent in the case of health shocks. Across all shock types, households do not rely on gifts from family and friends or on enhancing their labour supply as coping approaches. The relative insensitivity of food consumption to health shocks based on the shocks-coping analysis presented here is consistent with existing work which examines consumption insurance. However, our analysis leads to a different interpretation. We argue that this insensitivity should not be viewed as insurability of food consumption against health shocks but rather as an indication that a reduction in food consumption is not a viable coping response to a health shock as it does not provide cash to meet health care needs.
    Keywords: Ethiopia, adversity of shocks, coping response, health shocks, shocks
    Date: 2013–05–31
  24. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: Milk is one of the main sources for the livelihood of pastoralists around the world. Somali Region in Ethiopia is famous for the high density of livestock, implying significant potential for milk production. The perishable nature of the milk and the absence of the milk processing facilities do not allow this sector to fully utilize this potential, imposing significant economic losses on the community. This study assesses the economic feasibility of the milk processing plant in Jijiga city. The study analyses both moderate and aggressive enhancement options of the plant. The rigorous distributive analysis is used to estimate the allocation of the benefits arising to the government of Ethiopia, the pastoralists and the traders supplying milk to the plant, the labor involved employed by the facility, the Jijiga city community and the private entrepreneur. The sensitivity analysis is used to assess potential risk factors facing the facility.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, pastoralism, milk processing, milk production, camel’s milk, poverty reduction, Jijiga, Somali Region, Ethiopia, sustainable development
    JEL: D24 D31 D61 D62 E22 E23 F35 Q01
    Date: 2014–01
  25. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: The study evaluates an intervention designed to improve the livelihood of chronically-food insecure households with limited land holdings. The returns to the different stakeholders are estimated and a distribution analysis is conducted. The analysis suggests that the deterministic scenario will yield a very positive net present value for all the proposed commodities (potato, onion, and tomatoes). To reduce the risk borne by the farmers, however, the structure of the financing mechanism must be altered to allow the project to operate independently from the other donor’s financial support projects operating in the area. The loan size should be increased to allow the participating households to purchase irrigation pumps. The loan tenor should also be increased to facilitate the loans’ repayments.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, potatoes, tomatoes, onion, value chain, benefits of irrigation, small scale irrigation, pro-poor interventions, chronic food insecurity, poverty reduction, sustainable development, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  26. By: Campillo Carrete, B.
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to provide an overview and a preliminary discussion of policy and academic works addressing South-South Migration (SSM) in depth. In the first part, three development categorizations used by international agencies to estimate migration flows (provided by the World Bank, UN Population Division and the UNDP) are addressed, discussing differences in definitions, classification criteria and the resulting country groupings of the South and the North. In the second part, the most salient debates and their alleged relation to development are presented, in relation to the main features of South-South Migration so far identified by academic literature. Given that much of SSM research is expected to represent no more than an extension of former international migration research, and given the former neglect of the significance of South-South Migration, this study stresses the opportunity to rethink the relation between inequality and migration, as well as the need to rethink concepts which were developed under assumptions underlying the study of South-North Migration. It concludes that cross fertilization between approaches based on agency and structure can provide more complex and nuanced interpretations in the study of South-South Migration.
    Keywords: South-South migration, women migrants, migration definitions, migration measurement, migration and development, China-Africa migrations
    Date: 2013–11–30
  27. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: Ethiopia is characterized by the high cost and poor access or inaccessibility of livestock feed concentrates. The producers of the concentrates operating in the market claim that the limited demand for their products prevents the expansion of the sector. A very limited research has been made to determine whether the benefits from concentrate feed, i.e. higher weight gains, allow outweigh the high feeding cost to livestock producers. This study is financial and economic cost-benefit analysis to determine the feasibility of a small scale lambs and kids fattening exercise using concentrate feed. The study revealed that this livestock fattening activity produces results a negative net present value for the households. An incentive does not exist to use the concentrate feed. These findings explain the low demand for such feed by the rural households. A sensitivity analysis is used to test the range of feed prices that would enable the farmers to use it profitably. A distributive analysis shows that the government of the country would be the main beneficiary of the increased concentrate feed adoption. These benefits would come from the increased meat exports, i.e. increased foreign exchange earnings and taxes.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, small ruminants fattening, lamb and kids fattening, meat value chain, high feeding cost, concentrate feed, poverty reduction, sustainable development, access to finance, loan enabling intervention
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  28. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to identify the economic feasibility of the investment made to establish a commercial slaughterhouse facility in Faafan village, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia. Although the financial feasibility of the facility is essential for the project, the main purpose of the exercise is to estimate the economic returns and the net benefits created for the project stakeholders, namely: the private operator, the small holder livestock producers, the livestock traders, the labor employed by the facility, and the Government of Ethiopia. A deterministic cost-benefit analysis revealed a positive Economic Net Present Value, discounted at a 12 percent economic opportunity cost of capital, of the project. There are few risk factors, however, that may prevent a successful outcome of the project. These factors include the future price of meat in the international market, insufficient supply of raw materials i.e. livestock, the level of livestock inventories required to assure stable operations of the facility and the frequency of draught. An extensive literature review and field visits revealed that the project may be the only relatively reliable market i.e. stable price, for the smallholders in the region. Moreover if the ongoing effort of the Government to limit/forbid the informal livestock cross-border trade will succeed, the facility may gain a monopolistic power by being the only off-taker available to the farmers in the region.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, pastoralism, abattoir establishment, slaughter house, meat production, meat exports, economic benefits, employment, poverty reduction, Faafan, Somali Region, Ethiopia, sustainable development
    JEL: D24 D31 D61 D62 E22 E23 F35 Q01
    Date: 2014–01
  29. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: Ethiopian honey production is characterized by the widespread use of traditional technology resulting in relatively low honey supply and poor quality of honey harvested when compared to the potential honey yields and quality gains associated with modern beehives. Modern beehive yields around 20kg of higher quality honey as compared to 6-8 kg of yields from traditional beehives. This situation results in growing domestic prices of table honey and poor perspectives for reaching export markets. The objective of this study is to assess the financial and economic rationale of the USAID interventions addressed to improve the livelihood of poor honey producers through the provision of modern beehives. This study identifies key risk factors facing producers, and estimates the projects’ stakeholders’ net economic benefits. A deterministic cost-benefit analysis was used to evaluate three intervention options: provision of 3 modern beehives/ per beekeeper, provision of 3 modern beehives with tools/ per beekeeper, and provision of 3 modern beehives with tools and trainings on modern beekeeping/per beekeeper.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, small holders’ honey production, honey value chain, modern beekeeping, modern beehives, poverty reduction, sustainable development, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  30. By: Lambert, Sylvie; Ravallion, Martin; Van de Walle, Dominique
    Abstract: How much economic mobility is there across generations in a poor, primarily rural, economy? How much do intergenerational linkages contribute to current inequality? We address these questions using original survey data on Senegal that include an individualized measure of consumption. While intergenerational linkages are evident, we find a relatively high degree of mobility across generations, associated with the shift from farm to non-farm sectors and greater economic activity of women. Male-dominated bequests of land and housing bring little gain to consumption and play little role in explaining inequality, though they have important effects on sector of activity. Inheritance of non-land assets and the education and occupation of parents (especially the mother) and their choices about children's schooling are more important to adult welfare than property inheritance. Significant gender inequality in consumption is evident, though it is almost entirely explicable in terms of factors such as education and (non-land) inheritance. There are a number of other pronounced gender differences, with intergenerational linkages coming through the mother rather than the father.
    Keywords: inheritance; land; mobility; inequality; gender
    JEL: D31 I31 O15
    Date: 2014–01
  31. By: Derseh, A.; Sparrow, R.A.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
    Abstract: In June 2011, the Government of Ethiopia rolled out a pilot Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI) scheme. This paper assesses scheme uptake. We examine whether the scheme is inclusive, the role of health status in inducing enrolment and the effect of the quality of health care on uptake. By December 2012, scheme uptake had reached an impressive 45.5 percent of target households. We find that a household’s socioeconomic status does not inhibit uptake and the most food-insecure households are substantially more likely to enrol. Recent illnesses, incidence of chronic diseases and self-assessed health status do not induce enrolment, while there is a positive link between past expenditure on outpatient care and enrolment. A relative novelty is the identification of the quality of health care on enrolment. We find that the availability of medical equipment and waiting time to see a medical professional play a substantial role in determining enrolment. Focus group discussions raise concerns about the behaviour of health care providers who tend to provide preferential treatment to uninsured households. Nevertheless, the start of the pilot scheme has been impressive and despite some concerns, almost all insured households indicate their intention to renew membership and more than half of uninsured households indicate a desire to enrol. While this augurs well, the estimates suggest that expanding uptake will require continued investments in the quality of health care.
    Keywords: communit based health insurance, adverse selection, social exclusion, Ethiopia
    Date: 2013–12–20
  32. By: Christophe Nordman (IRD, UMR 225 DIAL); Julia Vaillant (World Bank, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa UMR 225 DIAL, IRD)
    Abstract: (english) We use a representative sample of informal entrepreneurs in Madagascar to add new evidence on the magnitude of the gender performance gap. After controlling for business and entrepreneur characteristics, female-owned businesses exhibit a value added 28 percent lower than their male counterparts. Correcting for endogenous selection into informal self-employment raises the gap by 5 percentage points. We then investigate the role of sharing norms and gender-differentiated allocation of time within the household in the gender performance gap, by estimating their effect on the technical inefficiency of female and male entrepreneurs. Only male entrepreneurs seem subject to pressure to redistribute from the distant network. Our findings are consistent with situations where women working at home would essentially feel negatively the burden of their own community due to intense social norms and obligations in their workplace but also of domestic chores and responsibilities. We find evidence of females self-selecting themselves into industries in which they can combine marketoriented and domestic activities._________________________________ (français) Nous utilisons un échantillon représentatif d’entrepreneurs informels à Antananarivo, Madagascar, pour mesurer et expliquer l'existence d'un écart de performance entre les unités de production informelles dirigées par des hommes et celles dirigées par des femmes. Une fois pris en compte les niveaux des facteurs de production, de capital humain, le secteur d'activité, l'année et la sélection endogène dans l'entreprenariat, l'écart de valeur ajoutée entre les entreprises féminines et masculines est d’environ 33%, au détriment des femmes. Nous étudions ensuite l’impact différencié des normes de partages au sein de la communauté et de la répartition des tâches au sein du ménage sur la capacité des hommes et des femmes entrepreneurs à atteindre leur frontière de production. Notre analyse suggère que seuls les entrepreneurs masculins sont sujets à la pression à la redistribution de la part du réseau distant. Pour les femmes, opérer une activité à domicile n’est pas un handicap en soi, mais cela agit plutôt comme un vecteur de transmission des effets négatifs des normes sociales et de répartition des tâches sur la gestion de l’entreprise. Nos résultats sont compatibles avec des situations dans lesquelles les femmes entrepreneures opérant une activité à domicile ressentiraient davantage le poids de leur propre communauté, sans doute à cause de normes de solidarité contraignantes, mais aussi à cause de leurs responsabilités domestiques.
    Keywords: Gender, entrepreneurship, informal sector, sharing norms, household composition, Madagascar, Genre, entreprenariat, secteur informel, normes de partage, allocation du temps au sein des ménages.
    JEL: D13 D61 O12 J16
    Date: 2013–10
  33. By: ADRIENNE M. LUCAS (Department of Economics,University of Delaware); ISAAC M. MBITI (Department of Economics,Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: The most desirable Kenyan secondary schools are elite government schools that admit the best students from across the country. We exploit the random variation generated by the centralized school admissions process in a regression discontinuity design to obtain causal estimates of the effects of attending one of these elite public schools on student progression and test scores in secondary school. Despite their reputations, we find little evidence of positive impacts on learning outcomes for students who attended these schools, suggesting that their sterling reputations reflect the selection of students rather than their ability to generate value-added test-score gains.
    Keywords: Education, Kenya, returns to secondary school
    JEL: H52 I21
    Date: 2014
  34. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to identify if the subsidized interest rates’ loans from micro-finance institutions in Ethiopia used to purchase and fatten small ruminants (lambs and kids) allow the poor households to substantially increase their annual income. A deterministic cost-benefit analysis of the base line scenario indicates that the proposed fattening scheme would result a satisfactory net present value. The high prices of feed in the country, however, suggest that the fattening calendar is an important variable. The study assess financial and economic benefits arising to the stakeholders of the activity and identifies key risky variables. This analysis points out that in the context of pro-poor interventions the loan schedule should be tied to the nature of the activity financed by the loan. The study proposes the suitable loan structure for the examined activity. High prices of commercial feed products along with the low scale of the activity do not allow the feeding scheme based on the highly nutrition commercial feed products. The study therefore is based on the free grazing feeding scheme with a limited quantity of supplementary feed.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, stakeholder analysis, small ruminants fattening, lamb and kids fattening, meat value chain, poverty reduction, sustainable development, access to finance, loan enabling intervention
    JEL: D13 D31 D61 D62
    Date: 2014–01
  35. By: Bundervoet, Tom
    Abstract: Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings show that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move toward non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Youth and Governance,Adolescent Health,Population&Development,Reproductive Health
    Date: 2014–01–01
  36. By: Julian Jamison, Dean Karlan, Pia Raffler
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of a health information intervention implemented through mobile phones, using a clustered randomized control trial augmented by qualitative interviews. The intervention aimed to improve sexual health knowledge and shift individuals towards safer sexual behavior by providing reliable information about sexual health. The novel technology designed by Google and Grameen Technology Center provided automated searches of an advice database on topics requested by users via SMS. It was offered by MTN Uganda at no cost to users. Quantitative survey results allow us to reject the hypothesis that improving access to information would increase knowledge and shift behavior to less risky sexual activities. In fact, we find that the service led to an increase in promiscuity, and no shift in perception of norms. Qualitative focus groups discussions support the findings of the quantitative survey results. We conclude by discussing a potential mechanism explaining the counterintuitive findings.
    Keywords: mHealth, SMS, text message, health care
    JEL: I11 I15
    Date: 2013–07
  37. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Chun-Yan Kuo (Arkins M. Kabungo Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin 10, Turkey)
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost–benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV), a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia, the international price of paprika and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilizing yields and increasing them. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and movements of international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.
    Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, outgrower scheme, paprika ,smallholder farmers, , sustainability
    JEL: Q17 Q12 H42
    Date: 2013–12
  38. By: Chen, Joyce J.; Collins, LaPorchia
    Abstract: There is a burgeoning literature highlighting asymmetric information among household members. However, little is known about the source of the asymmetry and its effect on efficiency. Using a unique survey of Ghanaian households, we examine the accuracy of spousal cross-reports and the effect of discrepancies on farm production. We find that information problems pertain to scale, the quantity of resources, and scope, the distribution of resources, as well as allocation decisions on the margin (Engel curves). Moreover, we find that information asymmetries lead to inefficiency in production, and the effect is equivalent to about 15% of the variation across households.
    Keywords: Asymmetric information, Intra-household allocation, Engel curve, Consumer/Household Economics, Production Economics, D13, D82, O12,
    Date: 2013
  39. By: Helmsing, A.H.J.
    Abstract: Institutional development has attracted more attention in the past two decades. However, institutional theory finds itself in a pre-consolidated phase and there are various theoretical and methodological challenges. One is to respond to the question whether institutional change is a spontaneous evolutionary or a deliberately designed process or a combination of the two. Another question concerns institutional co-innovation: i.e. the interaction between technological innovations, changes in institutional arrangements and changes in the institutional environment. A methodological challenge concerns the study of common institutional needs, which under different conditions can give rise to various concrete institutional forms. This paper researches how a common institutional need to develop institutional arrangements for rural collective action in order to enable small farmers to participate in newly created export chains in different contexts leads to different institutional arrangements and outcomes. By comparing two cases, the paper seeks to unravel which factors and actors play what roles and how these explain differences in the process of institutional development and in that way to arrive at a better understanding of local institutional change. After a general introduction, I present an overview of the diverse literature on institutional change. After that, bird’s eye views will be presented of the two case studies. The first refers to the development of export agriculture around asparagus in the North of Peru and the second relates to the introduction of new apicultural technologies in the North West of Uganda. In the final section the main commonalities and differences in institutional development are examined and an attempt is made to respond to the main challenges formulated above.
    Keywords: local institutional change, institutional change, small farmers, export chains, Peru, Uganda
    Date: 2013–09–30
  40. By: Knapp, S.; Heij, C.; Henderson, R.; Kleverlaan, E.
    Abstract: Since the early 1990's, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has designated fourteen sea areas as Particular Sensitive Sea Areas (PSSA) that enjoy special protection because of their various important attributes and vulnerability to potential harm by increasing shipping activities. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has identified two possible sites for possible designation as PSSA under IMO: the Banc d'Arguin National Park (Mauritania) and the Tubbataha Reef National Park (Philippines). This article presents an integrated framework for the estimation of total risk exposure due to shipping activities and various risk measures for ships trading in the areas of interest. Using a unique and comprehensive combination of data, we test whether ship specific risk increased over time. The results confirm an increase in the considered risk measures of ships trading through or nearby West Africa (Banc d’Arguin) and South-East Asia (Tubbataha) in general and also close to both regions and therefore support the recommendation for an increased level of protection.
    Keywords: binary logistic regression, change of risk over time, incident probabili, observation frequency, total risk exposure
    Date: 2013–06–01
  41. By: Giovanni Melina; Yi Xiong
    Abstract: Mozambique has great potential in natural gas reserves and if liquefied/commercialized the sum of taxes and other fiscal revenue from natural gas will, at its peak, reach roughly one third of total fiscal revenue. Recent developments in the natural resource sector have triggered a fresh round of much needed infrastructure investment. This paper uses the DIGNAR model to simulate alternative public investment scaling-up plans in alternative LNG market scenarios. Results show that while a conservative approach, which simply awaits LNG revenues, would miss significant current growth opportunities, an aggressive approach would likely meet absorptive capacity constraints and imply a much bigger (and, in an adverse scenario, unsustainable) build-up of public debt. A gradual scaling up approach represents indeed a desirable path, as it allows anticipating some, though not all, of the LNG revenue and, even in an adverse scenario, keeping public debt at sustainable levels. Structural reforms affecting selection, governance and execution of public investment projects would significantly enhance the extent to which public capital is accumulated and impact non-resource growth and, ultimately, debt sustainability.
    Keywords: Natural gas sector;Mozambique;Public investment;Debt sustainability;Economic models;Natural resources; Debt sustainability, Public investment, Mozambique, DIGNAR
    Date: 2013–12–23

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